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I wonder if they disclose anymore information in the earnings report about MP subscription numbers. An update then would be nice. Everything on track and update on projections for next year should help.
Yeah, just free TV publicity with Mitch being on CNBC. Not enough to make a sustained run. Will likely trade back down if you didn't already took profit at 13.
But, it may step higher tomorrow, but then we have earnings report soon.
Shortsqeeze.com is reporting 85% of float being short.
I keep hearing people say MP might not make it or that the business will fail.
MP can't fail. Mitch only need to do one thing and that's grow MP subscriptions as big as he can. Don't even look at other revenue streams but just that one aspect that MP will have millions of members.
When he brings millions to movies, everyone is going to depend on MP. They will realize MP is critical to their business theater chains and film makers alike.
Mitch won't need to call these guys. They will come to him for deals instead. Think about it, if you're a theater owner, and your revenue just doubled. Wouldn't you want more by working with MP? Exactly, all the movie chains will want to find ways to keep that business and more through partnerships with MP.
MP will get the support they need to sustain. Mitch just need to make the splash in the pond big enough.
But you can mark my word, convertible will convert. That's what they are designed for, only matter of when. If you can get shares at 12, you'd be dumb not to convert if this goes to 25 or beyond when MP IPO raise HMNY value significantly.
They have everything setup to profit big. Otherwise, they wouldn't have risked 100 million. Financial groups don't make that kind of mistake and they don't tie up 100 million without expecting great returns in due time.
Just be sure to take profit when the time comes.
The OS won't increase much unless the notes holders convert. Which will increase OS. If the Notes holders don't convert, OS won't increase much. It's all on that convertible notes 95 million worth. Maybe not converting right away but I see them do it if we say run to 25 or more. I think these guys are eyeing MP IPO as well. They need to get the foot in the door though HMNY.
I am changing my prediction for MP growth. We're thinking linear growth month by month but word is spreading fast it should not be a linear growth.
I'd say 4 million by next August is underestimating this. MP will raise projection again to possibly beyond 4 million. Just watch.
This is bigger than most people realize.
On another note, short percentage is at 85%. Can't really short much more without covering first. Good thing about a low float is not enough shares to borrow and short. Shorting too much might draw attention to manipulation from SEC.
I think we would have crashed lower if this wasn't already at 85%. Incredibly dangerous shorting the bottom at this level. Wait for that deal to close and 62.4% ownership of MP.
It's official when they file that sec filing.
Well, MP is not public yet, and HMNY deal hasn't closed. We have no visibility what's happening at MP.
As along as MP has funding, I feel good Mitch will make things happen. I am good as long as the deal with HMNY close soon and that funding has been transferred.
MP is already getting discounts from smaller movie chains and everybody wants in. They are expecting to break even with the ticket cost and subscription revenue down the road but going to be in red from the get go. So as long funding is a none issue, MP should do fine.
It's happening. AMC competitors will absolutely take advantage of MP to compete with AMC. Some theaters already advertise MP card accepted.
"Mitch Lowe:With a small number of theaters, a small but growing number of theaters, we get a small discount on the tickets. But we're finding the theaters see that we're driving people into their theater. We're getting emails and calls every single day by 10 to 15 different theater chains that all want to work with us to give us discounts."
https://seekingalpha.com/instablog/84364-mark-gomes/5068949-moviepass-making-moves
Wimusky, I go to a Marcus theater too and it's near by. AMC is the other option in a mall near by as well. So for me, it's either AMC or Marcus depends on if I go with friends who wants to meet at the mall or I go with wife and we would simply go to Marcus. The Tuesday deals are sweet, and for the past years, I've went to movies on Tuesdays just because of the 5$ deal.
Movie pass I see it as more flexible since I can use it at either AMC or Marcus. And if I can't make it on a Tuesday, it would be an alternative that allows me to see movies any other day of the week. However, I don't like the app doesn't allow you to purchase ticket in advance yet or pick seat. Only certain participating theaters has that option. That's a problem MP is working to fix and forge relationships with theaters to provide better experience.
I can see that most people probably don't watch many movies at all. Cus, I myself, I haven't found interest in other films other than Thor, Justice League and Starwars this season. On the other hand, wife wants to see other stuff, so we have that conflict of interested films we each wants to see and we usually accompany each other.
So if I have 3 films I want to see, and she got 3 more she wants to see, that makes total of 6 films we likely go together. With Movie Pass I am paying 20$ a month for the both of us. And for the month of Nov and Dec, we're paying 40$ for 6 films for the two of us. Any other films we watch would be no additional cost. I like that flexibility.
I think MP is going to take time to build that relationship with theaters. Eventually it will offer promotional and loyalty programs too . The biggest thing with MP is that it cause people to venture and see other stuff that cost them no additional spending.
Recent report shown 16% of low cost films were paid for by MP members, but only 1% of the ticket sales for Thor for one weekend. That's a clear indication that people are watching more films other than the big budget big name. It's only been about 3 month of time since the 9.95 plan.
As MP membership grows in number in the coming years, thicket sales is going to be bigger and bigger percentage. I think theaters will eventually become depended on MP.
I think that's highly possible. Sooner or later MP wants independence. That's why they aren't selling 100% to HMNY and they want to go public.
Otherwise, they could simply merge with HMNY and become 100% owned by HMNY. Why bother with IPO?
Netflix buying out HMNY and establish MP as a sub company under Netflix umbrella, they will rule the movie world both online stream and theater experience.
Can't say that wouldn't happen. Therefore, I am making funds available for MP IPO as well as try to accumulate more HMNY shares.
I like what management is doing to improve the situation, but I don't like the fact that AMC publicly rebuke Movie Pass.
Movie Pass is going to bring millions of customers to all theaters AMC theaters included. Not supporting MP means that AMC competitors will take advantage of MP partnership to compete with AMC business.
What was management thinking? It doesn't matter what AMC thinks about MP. In the next few years, what if 50% of AMC ticket sales could be MP members? Will AMC turn that away too?
This troubles me a lot ever since Movie Pass started gaining over 600k members in matter of 2 months. No body has the statistics to show the MP will fail, and what if MP succeeds, and AMC is just turning away opportunities for growth? So, what was management thinking when they did what they did publicly saying there is no chance in hell we'll work with Movie Pass and share profit?
Makes me wonder if something personal involved. Movie Pass is projecting 3 million + members by next August. That 3 million MP members could be spending far more at AMC theaters. What if MP members grows 5x in the next 5 years?
One thing I think it's putting pressure on MP is that AMC openly rejected MP and will not be sharing any revenue or concession sales revenue per quote from AMC CEO. AMC being the largest can make an impact on MP. I think the public might view this as a negative road block to MP success.
But, as I've said before, AMC do not have to support MP. Whether or not AMC supports MP, MP is going to be bringing millions of customers to AMC eventually.
AMC needs to ask itself a question. What do I do if 50% or more of my sales are from MP members? At that point, killing MP is digging AMC's own grave lol.
I am not sure what the executives are doing over at AMC, but they are making a big mistake.
AMC might be thinking killing off MP early but MP is going to survive with or with AMC. You know why? Because AMC competitor is going to see this as an opportunity to compete with AMC's business!!!
Mitch have already said in the interview they are experimenting when they leave certain theaters out, they can prove MP will be an impact in driving customers to other theaters. It's going to end up AMC against everyone else, and it's not healthy.
Other theater chains won't support AMC because they are competitors. They want AMC customers that would normally go to an AMC theater. AMC is setting itself up to get eaten up by its competitors when AMC competitors start growing along with MP.
Yeah, theaters don't make much from the ticket sales, since film makers like Disney takes 65% of the ticket sales. But, you will likely spend more on food and drinks or other stuff for sure, and that's where theaters makes most of their money. When you bring people to the theaters, a lot more goes on for the night out.
Some people might want a lift from Ubers for example, if they ended up drinking a bit on the night out.
McDonalds might have a special offer for MP members, things like that to generate more business. When I went to see Thor two days ago, I went to local Apple Bee restaurant and it was packed, I bought drinks but no pop corns for the movie show in the theater. I needed food and drinks lol. Easily spent 50$. If I didn't go to movies, I would not have been to the local restaurant, and I would not have bought drinks.
So yeah, this potentially far bigger than just being able to go to movies for a low monthly subscription. Because you don't have to worry about other movies that might be bad one if you had to pay 14$ for a ticket. You end up more willing to try out other movies that you would normally not want to pay for them. It most certainly helps those mid tier films and not just the top tier big players.
AMC partners with MP or Disney deals with MP or something along that line will cause a squeeze. But, I don't think we see something like that short term.
Because, for this to work, Mitch needs to gain millions of subscribers first. Only then will he have any leverage in negotiations.
We likely not hear anything big until at least after the deal close and that MP surpass 1 million subs.
My prediction is that the market would remain skeptical about it until they hit the 3 million + where Mitch can go to work and show the data they collected in the 12 month period.
So don't be surprised if we break under 10$ again, that's why I said not risking a large position yet.
MP going public is hard to say what will happen, so this can potentially create a lot more trading opportunities. MP IPO will be interesting to watch, and I would be interested in taking part in that IPO. I'd imagine institutions are more interested in MP shares than HMNY even though HMNY owns a controlling stake. You just never know if Mitch and Ted gets along long term.
We haven't seen institutions putting money in HMNY yet, but I bet they are waiting for the MP IPO. Recent 100 million funding came from off shore and not US money.
This is one of those that either fails miserably or it's going to take over the film industry. Imagine if just 50% of the ticket sales at the box office are from Movie Pass members. The entire film industry will then become dependent on Movie Pass existence.
It's a pretty scary thought too when MP grows into millions of members, and if the business can't sustain and the service stops one day. All of the sudden millions of people stop going to the theaters like they used to. That would probably cause a big hit on the industry too. Perhaps it would then becomes everyone's interest to make sure MP can sustain. lol.
AMC the biggest movie chain accounted for over 50% of the theaters was publicly showing negative attitude saying Movie Pass is unwelcome at AMC and calling it unsustainable and that the MP customers will be hugely disappointed in the future when MP fails.
Mean while, MP subscribers shot up to over 600k by October 18 from just 20k in Mid August. Some are predicting MP members will be reaching 1 million soon and projected to be well over 3 million by next August. Guess what, they haven't done any advertisement, the free publicity is spreading the word faster than you know.
Seems like this is happening whether or not AMC approves. AMC can't really block a master card unless they stops taking master cards all together.
I find it very interesting story, thought I share since IPCI has been pretty boring lately.
Yeah, it's crazy idea you can watch a movie every day for 9.95$ a month. This idea was from the co-founder of Netflix and CEO of Redbox Mitch Lowe. Mitch took over CEO role of Movie Pass just last summer. They did a bunch of market test before rolling out the price point at $9.95 a month this August.
I couldn't resist signing up for the service right away when they announced the new price in August, lol. Because for 20$ a month, wife and I can go to movies any day, or even try new movies we otherwise wouldn't have watched. 240$ a year covers all of our movie ticket expense just too good to pass up.
The public and wall street of course are skeptical whether or not a business model like this could sustain. Obviously, if you watch more than one movie a month MP would lose money because MP is only charging you for $9.95 a month. Average ticket price is about 9$. Using the card 2x a month puts MP cost at 18$ or more.
MP explanation is that market test have shown only a small percentage of its members are using the card more than 2x a month. Majority does not use it that often which offsets those who do take advantage of it. Looking at a longer period of time average members may only go to movies several times a year. MP would be profitable if that average remains below 12 x a year.
MP also explained that they likely cut deals with Theaters and film makers when their members grow into millions. It becomes effective for film makers to advertise through MP app, plus MP can collect market data and allow the film makers to tell how many people actually watched the movie after seeing the trailer or what type of movie people usually watch. As they say, market data is the new oil.
Come to think of it, a night out to the theater involves more than watching the movie, you likely need food and MP can help drive business to local restaurants too. It's going to be pretty disruptive if it succeed that is.
So in the next 5 years, maybe everybody will be carrying a Movie Pass which is a debit card issued by Master Card. You can pretty much use that where ever Master Card is accepted. That's brilliant, cus you can't refuse or discriminate between Master Cards.
I don't really dislike shorts, without them, we would not have the opportunity to trade and gain shares.
By the way, the deal is being finalized, news any day now.
Here is an interesting disclosure from Mitch. 1.2 million subs by year end or more is still my prediction. 1 million is a milestone so they will be required to disclose.
Q: How does that compare to MoviePass?
A: It had about 20,000 subscribers in December when it charged $14.95 a month. But that jumped this week with the price reduction to $9.95 — made in conjunction with a deal to sell the company to data firm Helios and Matheson Analytics, and for MoviePass to go public soon. They had targeted 100,000 subscribers in a year.
Lowe can’t disclose yet how many customers it has now. But he offers that with this week’s publicity “we were way, way, way, way, way above any idea of where we could have been at this point in time.”
Yep, meanwhile Movie Pass still stirs up the film industry that remains to be seen whether or not it will be the Netflex of movie going experience.
It's risky but success means another Netflex in the making. Netflext from 2010 was about 10$, 6 years later touched 200$. That's the kind of retirement stock.
HMNY owner of MP is just like Netflex in the beginning about 10$ a share. It started in the 2-3$ range back in August. However, this one is a bit different. MP did not merge with HMNY, instead HMNY toke a controlling stake and will now be owning up to 64% of MP. MP is planning on going public on its own with the help of HMNY. In any case, HMNY value is going to be 64% of what MP is worth.
Lol, love this stock already, got me back in this AM and off it goes.
It's not about the OS count, increasing OS means more shares out and that lowers per share value if company value do not increase to counter that. Dilution results in lower value per share.
It's also concerning Wall street analysts aren't covering the stock yet or maybe they are but no body released any opinions about it.
It's like a lot of people are waiting on the side line watching. I kind of felt the same way that I don't want to rush in with a large position yet.
But, the trades are just too good to pass up.
Yeah, that's common. You can tell your broker not to lend the shares without your permission. They will usually deal with you with profit sharing and borrow your shares. You don't lose anything if you don't sell, and you get paid when they short.
Frankly Citron Research openly stated shorting the stock like it's nothing but business. So, it was expected whenever some thing goes super nova, it always going to get shorted down.
Only way to counter that is to gain institutional support from those true longs. They will buy up the shares and lock them away to build that value. But, HMNY and MP needs to give them a good reason to do so.
When people talk about battles between bulls and bears, they aren't joking. The two side do fight over stocks.
Farnsworth said he's not afraid of shorts, I would say he probably shouldn't have made that kind of statement. He should be afraid of shorts.
Without any thing to drive the momentum, shorts will take over and profit for the time being until the company release something substantial to make them change from short to long.
The little good news serves to setup new short positions at the top and back down it goes every time. They knew the market don't have the confidence yet to really buy and hold. Not sure if it breaks 10$ again, but I'm getting ready to buy back.
Lol, I said it usually goes a bit lower when I am thinking about buying in, and guess what below 11 it is. Good buys.
Yeah, recent news isn't anything to justify a big run yet. Most people are just playing the daily trade and waiting. It's going to go up and down for that trade to happen until something big enough to justify a run up. My average is below 10, sold a lot that I bought 10.3 keep my shares I got below 10$. Thinking about buying back in soon if we don't go lower. It tends to go just a bit lower when I'm think about buying so I'll wait just a bit longer.
It seems some of you guys have grown attached to the stock, and that's really not a good thing.
I am constantly assessing the situation and make adjustment as appropriate. IPCI from what I've seen simply doesn't warrant a large position. Even at these levels, I'm not considering buying but only holding the 5k or so shares I did not sell.
Some times ago I said that when looking at a long investment you would look at the company pipeline, look at potential market, look at funding and finance, and you look at the CEO performance.
From last June Odidi did alright submitting Rexista and signing deal with MNK. Talked about PODRAS development earlier this year.
But, unfortunately, he didn't deliver much more most of this year. And when I look at a longer period of time, the past 4-5 years, overall picture doesn't look too impressive either. That unfortunately will not win support for the stock. So, wait is see is pretty much what I am doing right now.
Don't miss other opportunites out there.
HMNY year end prediction. MP value was 210 million last report in mid October. That puts us at the 9 dollar value. By year end MP value should reach 420 million or more. Current 100 million funding puts total value at 520 million. 64% of that is 332.8 million because HMNY announced they will take the option to increase holding in MP.
The new funding will dilute the stock by 8 million shares puts us at about 15 million shares out when the money is paid in full by the investor, and I believe the notes will get converted. So 332.8 over 15 million shares puts us at about 22.18 per share. If the notes don't all convert, we potentially see higher valuation. That's the fair value we likely reach when MP updates their sub and gets its value adjusted after the deal close.
I am telling you guys Mitch is brilliant. He just needs to focus on one thing and that is getting as many subscribers as fast as he can assuming funding is a none issue.
Once he has the 10s of millions of subscribers, he will create that dependency where the film industry will depend on MP because a good percentage of the sales will come from MP members.
Both the theaters and film makers will depend on MP as their sales go up due to MP, and they won't want to see MP fail. Just watch as MP continue to bring in more subscribers and improve the experience to keep the customers. The more MP grows the stronger the dependency on MP will be.
At that point, the entire film industry will protect MP because they will become dependent on MP. Simple logic here. Mitch will make you depend on him to live. At that point, you don't want him to die because if he dies you die. This is far bigger than collecting data and selling data.
It's about lifting the film industry and creating that dependency on MP. AMC can't block MP and it is inevitable a good percentage of their sales will be MP member. At that point, AMC will have no choice but to protect MP to protect their own business. Not to mention AMC is losing 43 million dollars a year. AMC will convert to support MP, it's like a force in a direction they cannot change. It would be foolish AMC keeps bashing MP, because they are just digging their own graves. Mark this post and see for yourself in a few more years.
Yes, Lowe if don't agree with Farnsworth will likely end badly. So far, things appears to be going as planned. Plus MP just waived their rights to terminate the deal. Mitch appears to be giving Ted the lead since Ted supposedly is a market expert for now.
Too early to really determine how things will end up. As originally suggested, holding a small position for now is a good idea. Will increase holding when more clarity becomes available.
At the very least, the deal needs to close first. We don't see other institutions jumping in supporting this stock yet obviously for the same reason. Investing at this point is taking on a big risk. And, that's why the 100 million funding ended up convertibles. The lender is not taking that big risk either.
You would think MP could simply merge with HMNY already a public company and not needed to go public. Then simply raise funding.
So, the reason why Mitch wants MP to go public under its own trading ticker probably have deeper motives. Ego guy as you puts it might not like others having total control, and he and his friend could buy back MP from Ted at some point or even buy out Ted. Because if MP merge, there can only be one CEO, I don't think either Ted or Mitch would want to work under either. Ego guys is probably fitting terms.
I feel maybe Mitch don't trust Ted completely and he's using Ted to go public. And if things goes south, the deal breaks at some point in the future, he keeps MP independent and buy back the stakes of MP. As you puts it, Ted is not the only guy who can do data analytics. This way, Ted is not dragging down MP if things really goes bad. The sword cuts both ways.
Alternative, of course is to wait for MP IPO and invest directly in MP instead.
Yeah, convertibles with no restrictions are bad no matter how you look at it. 95 million worth at 12$, that's troublesome.
It will not run anywhere fast, unless we see some major development to counter that dilution.
Here is an interesting view I thought I share. We've heard of Mitch Lowe and his visions and plans. We knew if MP keeps growing, they are going to have millions of members going to theaters because of the service right?
Now, imagine 2 years later what if MP can't sustain and one day that service stops? Imagine what kind of damage it can do if suddenly millions of people stopped going to theaters? That's pretty scary thought for the theaters right?
Mitch is creating that dependency on MP for the theaters. This I think is brilliant part on Mitch because once that dependency is establish and that theaters rely on MP for the sales, the theaters are going to actually protect MP!!! Why? Because if MP goes down, they all go down. lol
Question is can Mitch stay in the business long enough to create that dependency on MP? This is a truly disruptive business no matter how you spin it.
If Mitch succeed in getting millions of subscribers going to the theaters, the theaters are going to taste that sweetness whether they partner up or not. And then, it's going to be like a drug they get addicted and can't let go. Brilliant mind Mitch Lowe. Imagine even just 50% of ticket sales comes from MP cards? Would you give up 50% sales to see MP crash and burn? Not a chance!
Make theaters depend on MP and they will have no choice but to protect that interest. Profit share is inevitable to protect MP and make it sustain. I don't think many people realize what's truly happening here. Mitch is going to make the theaters keep MP in business. Not to mention the film makers. Once their sales is up, they won't want to lose that benefit. It will be in everyone's interest to protect MP and make sure MP sustain.
I've looked at a lot of investment opportunities. I am telling you, this is one of those that comes around once in a long time just like Netflex, Amazon, Apple or Google. Just watch what happens years from now. MP is going to be the life and blood of film industry. It's far bigger than just collecting data and selling data or advertisement. The film industry is going to depend on MP!! This is how MP is going to sustain.
Soon, the deal is pretty much sealed and MP can't back out of it now. HMNY got the money they need and will increase stake in MP. Once the funds move and the deal is complete, the true value will should be reflected.
More importantly, we need to see MP deliver on the plans.
Ted seems like he's getting the funding Mitch needs. Mitch is relying on Ted to do the financial stuff including going public. Not a bad thing cus Mitch can focus on running the MP operation.
Just hope they don't have conflict of interest or disagreement. That's usually the killer of a business partnership. Technically, HMNY owns MP.
All the media buzz is center around MP and not so much HMNY though. I would think HMNY would eventually want MP as a wholly owned. But, what if MP decides to buy back all of it's stakes? I see a potential merger happening down the road.
They are keep it separate for now until things are certain that MP will be successful. There are substantial risk in any start up and both sides are likely taking precautions until the time is right.
Agree, just be ready to take profit when it happens.
It's very costly to go public for MP. In the filing they stated 20-100 million they basically maxed out on what they can get for this round of fund raise at 100 million.
We know MP subscription is near the 1 million mark pretty soon by year end. So monthly revenue is going to be about 10 million $. But, their cost includes the card, and average movie the subscribers watch per month. So if average was 2 movies a month MP expense is about 20 million!! 3 movies 30 million!! But, we have no real statistics, and guys like me, I only used the card one time since I got it watching Thor. And I might not use it again until Justice league.
I am personally hoping they start bring in other source of revenue to balance that cost such as advertisement or profit share with other movie chains. They need far more funding to make this work, that's why they need to go public soon. 1 billion is the number some people are saying, which isn't really that much to make a business like this work.
By August of next year, the projection is over 3 million subscribers. Or about 30 million monthly revenue but again, the cost can be double of that or 60 million if average movie watched per user is 2 a month. Now, we don't have that kind of data and no way to know what the exact average is. There might be slow months were most member don't watch anything. Maybe it's lower if say some people didn't watch anything in the given month but some people watched 2 or 3 movies. average movie watch per month out of the 3 million could be below 1. for example only 60% or 0.6. In cases like that MP would actually make profit. There are to many variable to make any accurate calculation. That's why data collected by HMNY is valuable because they know exactly what the average is over a 6 month period from example or a 12 month period.
And we don't know if MP will succeed in making new deals to lower that cost yet. So all this is speculation until we see earnings report and news release after the deal close.
13.20 is a pretty good entry, they basically just put in a floor at 12 for now. Hope they deliver on the plans, close the deal, increase holding to 64% and grow MP the way it was planned. When they announce the deal close and increased stake in MP, this should run up a bit more.
It's not one institution, Ted mentioned Canacord Genuity and its institutional investors. So, a lot of people are on this 100 million train. But, public won't like the fact that these are convertible at 12$. It means if you bought above 12$, you're paying more for share compare to these guys. There is no lock up on these notes and they can convert at any time. Which I firmly believe they will convert if this stock starts to run. That's what convertible notes are for they aren't long term holding senior notes.
That's going to put pressure on the stock If we take off beyond 12$ we likely see heavy sell due to dilution and profit take using these convertible notes and stock will crash back down. That's how the notes holders will get their money back from the public market and eliminate their risk in the investment. I think the company will report shares converted on earnings reports. So that's the ugly part about raising funds or dilution with convertible notes.
Now, the counter to this dilution is MP value as well as increasing holding in MP stake up to 64%. Of course if they announce any new deals for new source of revenue stream, stock will run, but keep in mind the convertible notes and there are whole lot of them. These notes will make profit sell at anything above 12$.
I kind of wish they weren't convertible notes, but HMNY would have to pay more interest and having to pay back the 100 million on maturity. I think they ended up with convertible notes because the investors aren't comfortable with none convertible notes and having to risk 100 dollars worth of notes locked up and unable to sell for a period of time. Unfortunately, confidence isn't very high at the moment until further development.
12 is the conversion price CJstocks. Notes holder can convert for 12 a share at any time, and sell at market for a profit currently that means about a 2$+ per share profit. That can put pressure on the stock if holder decides to convert into common shares and dump into market.
I think the holder will convert because the notes holder does not have any liens on any of company asset. So it's a risk holding the notes long term. In any case, short term the value of stock will readjust to fair value in the coming week.
So the higher this runs the more profit the notes holder will likely make. Just hope they space things out a bit to allow a run to happen before putting the pressure on it. If this runs hard, be ready to take profit and don't be too greedy pass the fair value. It will get sold down for sure.
So, originally predicted, MP value might be close to 400-500 million by year end. Another word, double again since the mid October valuation of 210 million at north of 1 million subscriptions.
With the new funding and HMNY taking the option to increase stake up to 64%. Let just say low end of 400 million valuation at 64% is 256 million over 13 million shares is about 20$ a share. Citron Research had the info way ahead of anybody else. They knew after the deal goes through stock would be worth 20$.
We had to wait for all the sec filings to find out way later. But the surprise here is that MP value is actually more than projected. So I won't be surprised to see 25$ or even 30-40 again on short squeeze. kind of gives an idea what sell target to set for a portion of the lot.
If no short squeeze, 20-25 isn't out of question.
Lol, squeeze might make it run higher, but we now have confirmation HMNY will increase stake in MP that means 64% ownership. 15$+ coming.