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UIHC Time to buy back in the mid $15s? I'm buying a start position here. Ready to add if it goes lower.
S&p nearing 2100...remarkable rally.
GV sold this afternoon as well. That said it could easily continue this tear.
"Angling information" oh boy here we go again...
"Angling information" oh boy here we go again...
re: Insurers not sure if anyone saw this but UIHC PR'd a big cat loss in Q1 yesterday. Oddly the stock finished up yesterday and dropped back today. Market not sure what to make of it.
If I were you I'd take a few days off from the computer screen. Just my honest advice. Good luck, hope you start feeling better.
LOL - so if I count depreciation and SBC as an expense its because I want to "cherry pick stats". Love your attitude by the way.
SSK I think you are mistaken on that. Here is the actual text verbatim out of the description of the 2023 patent.
A method for inhibiting platelet aggregation in a patient in need thereof, comprising 1) administering to the patient a bolus injection of an active drug, in an amount of about 25 &mgr;g/kg, and 2) administering to the patient, after the bolus injection, an intravenous infusion for a period of between about 12 hours and about 72 hours, of the active drug, in an amount of about 0.15 &mgr;g/kg/min, wherein the active drug is tirofiban or a salt thereof.
note Tirofiban, which will be generic in October.
ref http://www.drugs.com/availability/generic-aggrastat.html
until October, when the Aggrastat patent runs out. Then they will start facing competition from generic tirofiban.
You guys are comparing 2 different products
Patent-protected Aggrastat (Tirofiban)
Generic Integrilin (Eptifibatide)
MPH The 2023 patent is for a treatment procedure, of which aggrastat is one component. I think when folks say "expanded use" they are referring to an FDA approval to use this new procedure. If you read the actual annual report on sedar it is quite clear that they are making money only from sales of aggrastat. I don't really understand how a company with no U.S. operations would make money off of a treatment procedure. Licensing the patent to medical service providers? It's quite clear they don't do that. I'm not a huge fan of this company so I could go on but all I want to say is I think a little more skepticism is in order.
ref http://www.drugs.com/availability/generic-aggrastat.html
edited: I think they do their own research, outside the US
True, if there is a positive expectancy you should buy, but then you shouldn't be upset when it goes down because you know you made the right decision.
Well yes, I would say we were in a bull market from 2004 through 2014, interrupted by a brief but severe bear market in 2008. So if one were fortunate to not get killed in 2008, he or she could produce a market beating 10-yr track record simply by using leverage (or buying high beta and/or leveraged companies). I think this is a big reason why I see so many ~20% cagr 10 yr performance records on the internet, and disappointing results from the same people for 2015. The real test is can you make money in a flat market, or I suppose if you can time bull markets consistently over a long time frame.
that's a bull market strategy, do you think it will work in a flat to down market?
SLGD Increasing advertising costs, lower gross margins, sounds like they are fighting competition...not good.
No position
CVU agreed. I would also note that their FY15 guidance issued Nov 3 was off by 30%, so who knows what will happen FY16? If anything this is overvalued.
Also re: their tangible book value. TBV is more than covered by the $102M costs in excess of billing assets, which I find a bit dubious. Wouldn't be surprised to see that written down again in the future.
I think the best explanation is weak hands from last years highs. Reminds me of FONR which doubled on basically flat earnings, and has maintained a much higher valuation. I have noticed the same pattern in other stocks. UIHC, for instance.
IMHO.
Clearly all the smart money is in KBIOQ right now...
(sarcasm, of course)
KINS I'm with you. From the CC,
Looking ahead, in the first quarter of 2016, we anticipate a decreasing impact from winter weather losses as compared to the previous two years. Winter weather losses in 2016 are primarily related to a single freezing event in mid-February. At this time, we expect that these losses will have a 2 point impact on the full year 2016 combined ratio. This compares favorably to the 7 point impact observed from the 2015 winter weather cat events and the 4.5 point impact from 2014 winter weather.
It's probably a great takeover candidate. Unfortunately I agree with SSK I don't see any way to own the stock with current management after last year's write down and this year's delay.
Tell me about it ... I have had a nasty string of bad luck this year.
GV average revenues per quarter, 2012 thru 2015.
Qtr avg dev
1 25.00 (1)%
2 26.45 5%
3 23.18 (8)%
4 26.51 5%
avg 25.28
These guys posted .0017 EPS in Q2 last year and there weren't even any trades. Then they post a loss in Q4 and someone decides to do a bunch of buying...don't get it. It's probably Scooby getting ready for a new pump and dump scam. Also I don't believe their financials. Why did they report an increase in the value of their intangible assets? well in excess of their profits? If they are really making money it should show up in the form of real assets, or even better cash. Unfortunately they do not publish a cash flow statement. If they did I think it would be informative. I think there is some doubt that these guys' financials are real. I sold my shares so this will be my last post. Good luck all.
PCMI at some point they pre-announced that acquisition expenses would hit the Dec quarter and and extend into the March qtr . Not sure where but its in my notes. That said I bought on the likelihood for positive outlook and favorable comps going forward. GL all.
Management says right in the PR that they are "moderating production levels to match supply and demand. While the demand for ethanol continues to grow, current industry ethanol inventories remain high."
Sounds short term bearish on ethanol. And this is management.
Although of course they say they are long-term bullish on the price of ethanol, but how could they not? If they weren't they would have to wind down the business, or quit.
GV TBH I thought we'd be back at 1.2 by now, or at least the 1.2s -- I gave in and bought back at my selling price.
Seems to me like high debt companies, speculative companies, and small caps are just high beta. So wherever the market goes, they move more. CCS for instance is back to where it was on Tuesday. They're just following the market. It's harder to invest in a flat market when not everything goes up, I will give you that. In an uninhibited bull market you can just buy high beta companies and beat the market. Of course I still think you can beat the market with good picks, but stocks will be less likely to go up in a straight line like 2013-14. Good Luck.
delete
The good thing for CVU is they are a pretty straightforward manufacturing company so there really isn't that much left up to accounting interpretation. I just hope they weren't caught faking numbers like the defense contractor I work for, L-3 communications. Then again with LLL the market doesn't seem to really care...
down 10% on a beat, didn't see that one coming. Not much choice but to sell I guess. Could be anything. Many of their metrics were down sharply that could be the problem.
HRTG (19.80) reports 0.66 vs 0.66, 3.05 on the year. Anyone in this one?
People are funny...but all we can do is take their money lol. I think it's likely that I will get GV back in the low 1.2s if not 1.1s by the end of the month when they report. Good Luck.
GV up 17% really??? I'm selling the shares I picked up after hours yesterday at 1.19...
What I don't get is why you would want to own a stock that you believed was being manipulated? Unless you had some special insight on the manipulation that gave you an edge? In other words you're willingly playing a game that you believe is rigged.
HBP -- they PR'd .02 vs (.02) this afternoon. Thought about buying but I have enough exposure with CCS.
UVE nice report -- missed it. IMO the shorts are correct, but these guys will continue to post huge profits until hurricanes start hitting Florida again.
I typically use market cap as a estimation of equity value and book value as an estimation of debt value, minus excess cash. I typically exclude working capital and other non interest bearing liabilities because they are a normal part of doing business and not really part of the capital structure. This probably doesn't conform to the Wikipedia definition but it's what I find informative. Hope this helps.
seconded on all points
nice work SSK
OK we will have to agree to disagree because I have a different definition of leverage. I typically look at debt to equity only, and use market values.