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Definitely some big money managers who have never heard of this company. I have two money manager friends who I've asked about the stock. The first time I asked one guy he said he meet with management, but wasn't crazy about it due to the licensing issue. Second time i asked him about 6 months later and he never even remembered meeting with the company. The next guy i just asked this week. He knew Fmcn, but never heard of CCME. He looked at the numbers and said they looked nice. Not sure if he would put money in it because the float and market cap too small for him.
When this catches the eyes of big players we'll get that FMCN like valuation. I'm still waiting.
Put some play money in the jan 18. In the last rally i sold too late and only had some small gains in the options. Maybe about 30%. Was thinking about writing some puts to offset the cost, but toppy markets prevent M me from pulling the trigger.
Another Q coming up soon. I tried adding recently hoping for some tax loss sellers just dumping at year end.. didn't happen. Illiquidity in this stock is a killer. A while ago I reduced my position to about 25% of original because of that issue. May be to hard to build it back up with out pushing up price.
I thought cash was easy to verify, until i invested in a stock called EGMI. They had a large cash position that turned out to be non- existent. Took a bath on it, as I made it a fairly large position. Good thing going for CCME is a better quality auditor, better exchange, growing institutional coverage and strong revenue growth.
TLH.TO - Just some thoughts from doing some digging on lithium batteries. So it appears that Toyota will be using lithium in the 2011 model of the Prius. Toyota also announced in early 2010 they were locking up lithium supplies with Orocobre. Toyota also in 2009 stated they may have a breakthrough that can increase the capacity on a EV battery ten times, but may take 10 years to develop. Was that a coincidence that they made this discovery than locked up their lithium supplies? I don't know much about battery technology, but the gist of the discovery was that they believe from a technological standpoint they can reduce/eliminate the use of graphite in the battery. Graphite is a larger molecule and takes up a lot of space, this way they can pack in more lithium and extend the range/charge of the battery. That to me sounds like they view lithium as a potential long term solution to battery life. Thoughts? Would love to hear from someone with insights into the battery technology. From a long term perspective, this makes me more comfortable with TLH and the fact I have almost a 10% position in the stock.
Tlh.to - i agree with what you are saying. Overall growth of lithium demand as detailed in the FMC presentation shows a CAGR of 6% through 2015 and 12% through 2020. It looks like that is not including EV autos. The one area i disagree is the EV autos are the golden key to growth due to the large amount of lithium used in an auto relative to an electronic device battery. Either way both will spur lithium usage long term. The main driver to the stock right now for me is the increasing allocation by the etf. I would love to see where the share price is once the etf has a full position. My guess is the etf has tlh at about a 15% position.
Tlh.to - the etf is definitely adding to its position. Shares are at 260787 and was at about 170k when first entered into the etf. Cash now at 10.3mm. Sqm was over 22% of holdings and now under 20%. Im guessing tlh becomes about a 10-15% position in the etf. A long way to go from here. The bittersweet part of watching tlh go up was that i missed out on about a 70% gain in tmb.to when I sold to invest in tlh thinking i could get back in later.
Tlh.to - looks like they upped the percentage allocation to 1.47%, which is above the one day 90 day average volume constraint i imagined. My guess is at most they allocate about 15% to tlh due to concentration constraint on top three holdings. Interesting I see cash now at about 10mm and a top three holding. I don't remember that previously.. anyone remember previous CaSh allocation? Maybe they are building up the cash for a larger buy of tlh. Getting interesting as we hit new highs.
Tlh.TO link to competitor FMC corp business presentation
.. look at slide 39 on about lithium market. Gives an idea where they think demand will be by 2020. Growth in demand from electric vehicles picks up pace after 2012. Unless a major shift in technology, lithium is a good place to be.
http://phx.corporate-ir.net/phoenix.zhtml?c=117919&p=irol-EventDetails&EventId=3508557
Tlh.to at new 52 week high. Appears that the index only added a 1.09% weighting for tlh. Given the two more well known names were given 21.06% (SQM) and17.77% (FMC) weights, I'd imagine that tlh will still be added more to the index once volume increases. Based on trading volumes it appears they added shares up to 1 days liquidity volume. Other names appear at or under this level.
Mmt.v - last time dropped about 20+% on high volume, it went up 66% to a new high. Added about 10% more shares at .57 today. Would love for it to do the same.
Tlh- i believe there will be a need to go in the open market. Stock only started trading 9/23 with total volume of 7.95mm since that date. Only original shareholders have that size available. Etf would need to buy from one of the five original holders to get 3.1mm.. i would think that would cross at a premiu m to the market given low volume.
Tlh - I'm curious what the buying pattern is like for the etf's. We'll know by end of month what the percentage will be.
Tlh.to- based on NAV of 93.5mm than they need to buy 3.17mm shares if they do a full 20% allocation.
.to-ased on NAV of 93.5mm than they need to buy 3.17mm shares if they do a full20% allocation.
Btlh.to-ased on NAV of 93.5mm than they need to buy 3.17mm shares if they do a full20% allocation.
TLH - It appears ETF may purchase close to 2 millions shares if they did the full 20% allocation based on TLH's production. Only question is timing based on the prospectus.
This was my earlier post about the etf rebalancing.
http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=55497748
That is more than I expected. I would've thought we'd be under 3mm. These guys are in a world of pain if they are the initial shorts from last month.
Mauxf increased my position by about 10% during the drop. I wanted to increase by 50%, but price did not stay depressed long enough, nor did i have all the funds fully available.
Friday and wishing it was Monday morning already. Hope we're not letdown here, but the company has been very credible in hitting or beating their targets.. I think the shorts have covered a decent portion, but another strong quarter may bring in more money. I've already waited a year on my position. Little preventing me from waiting another, unless we get another huge run up.
Houston, we have liftoff... Is that a new 52week high I see?
I think it's all a matter of the timing of the report. A lot of the volume was post the 10/15 date and post the "IBD 100 expectations". I'm guessing when they report the 10/31 numbers it would be signficantly lower than 4mm, as the shorts had an opportunity to get out w/ that large amount of volume. That volume was significant enough for the short interest to be meaningfully reduced. I could however be very wrong.
I'm in agreement with you on the sub 3mm number. With the volume we've had, it would be easy to get out of a short. A listing on the IBD 100, however would have been a nail in the coffin. Unfortunately we didn't get it. Steady climb up, instead of a sharp spike. Those are my thoughts.
I think the opportunity for a violent upswing was missed when CCME didn't make the IBD 100 and the S-3 was filed. I'd guess that given the volume some of these shorts have been able to get out. Next short report will be smaller maybe by as much as half, I'm guessing. With earnings around the corner that would be the wise move, unless they were sure CCME was a fraud. I look forward to the slow steady climb again, the recent upswing made my fingers tired checking my portfolio balances every day.
I was lucky to pick up a small slug of those $8 shares. Unfortunately I was trying to squeeze a nickel on a lot of Dec 15 calls and never hit the ask. Now I'm watching it go up over 3x's.
I love the smell of NAPALM in the morning...
I'm still tweaking my investment methodology, but generally I'm in concentrated positions. This isn't a full time gig for me, so I have to focus my efforts. Usually I don't take anything off the table until it is a 2-3 bagger, unless I find a better investment and sell the whole lot. CCME was one of those positions. I liquidated two positions and some of EGMI to convert the warrants. I have fairly wide swings in P/L, as I'm sure you guessed. I may let loose 10-20% of CCME when it gets an index level P/E multiple, unless the 10Q makes me think otherwise. Let's see where the market goes with China stocks, we are starting from a low base so far from feeling toppy.
Drex,
Thanks for bringing this investment to my attention. Along w/ IAE and OGC, CCME has made up for my horrible decision in EGMI over the past year. The only salvation was when I exercised my warrants I had to sell some EGMI to fully convert into my CCME position. CCME has now grown to more than 1/3 my portfolio. EGMI at its peak grew to more than 1/2 my portfolio. I'm looking forward to CCME becoming that large, but not suffer the same consequences. I have much more belief in CCME.
Cover before the weekend?
I've got buyer's remorse... I should have bought more!
Lithium pricing - Looks like TLH.TO's competitor has increased pricing for lithium recently.
CHARLOTTE, N.C., September 7, 2010 – FMC Lithium announced today that effective October 1, 2010, or as contracts permit, it will increase global pricing for n-butyllithium and s-butyllithium and Lithium chloride products by 8 percent for all non-schedule pricing. “ Over the last few years pricing has not kept pace with raw material and freight increases. To ensure continued investment in our operations and support the quality of supply and service expectations of our global customers, the increase is necessary” said Chris Senyk, Global Marketing Director for FMC Lithium.
TLH.TO/TLTHF - so reading about the Solactive Global Lithium Index the weightings are :
"The Percentage Weight of an Index Component which is a Mining Company is capped at 20.00 percent, the Percentage Weight of an Index Component which is a Battery Company is capped at 4.75 percent on the Adjustment Days. The collective Percentage Weight of all Index Components with a Percentage Weight exceeding 4.75 percent is capped at 44.5 percent on the Adjustment Days. The excess weight is allocated proportionally to all Index Components whose Percentage Weight is not capped."
So TLH.TO as a mining company can not get weighted more than 20% or about $11mm based on LIT's net assets.
In terms of timing of the addition to the index it looks like last day of Nov 2010 with announcement 5 business days before.
"The composition of the Index is ordinarily adjusted twice a year on the last Business Day in May and November. The composition
of the Solactive Lithium is reviewed on the Selection Day and the appropriate decision made is announced. The first adjustment will be made in November 2010 based on the Trading Prices of the Index Components on the Adjustment Day."
However it might not qualify for this November due to these criteria (points d & e) as trading history is not sufficient:
"“Selection Pool” in respect of a Selection Day are those companies that fulfill the following conditions:
(a) Listing on a regulated stock exchange in the form of shares tradable for foreign investors without restrictions
(b) Active in the Lithium Sector
(c) Free Float Market Capitalization of at least 25 million USD
(d) Average daily trading volume of at least 150,000 USD in the last three months
(e) Average monthly trading volume of at least 250,000 shares in each of the last six months (“Liquidity Criterion”)"
But it is probably overridden by this rule:
2.1 Selection of the Index Components
The initial composition of the Index as well as any ongoing adjustment is based on the following rules:
On the Selection Days, the Index Advisor provides the Selection Pool. The Committee may decide to include companies in the
Selection Pool which do not fulfil the Liquidity Criterion. The companies in the Selection Pool are ranked according to their
average daily trading volume on the respective Exchange in the last three months expressed in USD (the “Relevant Trading
Volume”). The company with the largest Relevant Trading Volume is assigned rank number 1, the company with the secondlargest
Relevant Trading Volume rank number 2 etc. The companies with the highest ranks are then chosen as Index Components
and the new index composition determined this way is valid starting the Business Day immediately following the upcoming
Adjustment Day. For clarification, rank number 1 is higher than rank number 2.
Seems to be some exceptions, but I think the b/d can no longer short w/out locating a borrow. So it seems they can keep the position outstanding w/out closing out the short. This is my read on the rule.
Look at Question 5.5 and on
http://www.sec.gov/divisions/marketreg/mrfaqregsho1204.htm
The option holders, must be planning a big CCME BASH!
Initiated a position in this pullback. This stock almost looks like a no brainer. Do you know the back story behind the failed IPO? Still doing some dd here.
Basking in green over here. Finally my largest position gives me something to WHEEEEEEEEEEEEEEE about.
SAIC filings - Thought this was useful information. Feel free to share with China Growth Stocks board.
http://geoinvesting.com/geowire/273/the_sec_vs_saic_fact_finding_mission