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Amorphology doesn’t have a whole lot of Manufacturing capacity or manpower. I’m thinking they have one Engle machine similar to the one we have mothballed in Arizona. I originally floated the idea that perhaps Amorphology approached LiquidMetal rather than vice versa. It could also be that Amorphology is looking for an entry point to access Yihao’s capacity. Both companies face the same hurdles as they try to figure a way get successful. You could merge Amorphology with LiquidMetal with Glasimetal and you would still have no real manufacturing capacity. They are clones sharing all the same weaknesses. These are research stage companies with no expertise in manufacturing or marketing.
Every once in a while even a blind squirrel finds a nut…..or a small application.
I would have preferred that they hook up with “Form Technology” to piggyback on their marketing expertise and reputation.
Speaking of Ripple….I remember $0.65 for a bottle in the 60’s. equivalent to 10 shares of LQMT….WOW!
Keep your sense of humor!
So I can be an “insider” if my wife’s cousin lived next door to a LiquidMetal employee and picked up a rumor? Martha Stewart all over again. How would ResearchFYI identify an insider if there were one? The volume today was 3x average…How many were insiders? Is JB an insider or an outsider??
An insider doesn’t have to jump in and buy 10 million shares as a lump….it could be someone who picked up 500k over 3 days and hardly made a ripple.
How can you have significant insider trading with 7 employees? …..virtually 100% are subject “insider” rules.
I would like to see LQMT revisit the “tire pressure sensor” opportunity…..there have to be areas ripe for improvement that perhaps we can address. I’d like to see a few hundred sets as a test to get qualified.
Corrosion resistance a possible “in”.
How do you get to profitability without passing through breakeven?
So who are the key players at Amorphology? The website lists 5 but we shall see…
Douglas Hoffman…listed as Founder/Scientific Consultant but also seems to be employed by NASA JPL and is a Visiting Associate & Lecturer in Material Science @ Caltech. Busy guy!
Jim Demetriades….Founder and CEO of SEVERAL tech start-ups in Aerospace arena. He has a Venture Capital company called Karios VC —-also dividing his time.
Glenn Garrett ….Chief Technical Officer is a full time employee
Peter Czer….listed in the website as Chief Operating Officer who was previously associated with Karios VC. He is also listed elsewhere as “Strategic and Business Planning” so this is a big question mark This is further muddied by a different reference listing Nicholas Hutchinson (formerly of Eutectrix and Materion) also as the Chief Operating Officer. I think Peter was replaced by Nicholas as COO.
Moritz Stolpe is listed as a senior consultant….his background is heavy in additive manufacturing (3D printing) with lots of references to Zirconium based BMG’s in particular. Also doesn’t appear to be full time.
Total employment looks like 11 but I doubt that they are all full time.
Has anyone considered the possibility that Amorphology is the initiator of this combination/agreement….perhaps Amorphology, as it get closer to a commercial product, had concerns about patent litigation and approached LiquidMetal just when LQMT was looking for a manufacturing partner.
Unfortunately, I think Amorphology is too similar to LiquidMetal in its make-up. being research based and rooted in academia is not a formula to move in a direction that needs sales/marketing. Hope I’m wrong.
Interesting ….Investorshub lists a LQMT breakout to the downside two days ago and a breakout to the upside one day ago (today).
The gears are critical to the operation of robotic joints and there are a whole lot more of them than space launches.
20% move on 550k shares. (Only $35k)……proof of life!
The 8K was filed on 3/15….I don’t understand the sell-off on Monday/Tuesday. I would have expected a positive reaction. Is it that the positive was overwhelmed by the price drop in Movano? Many moving parts.
Amorphology is connected to Nicholas Hutchinson with roots to Materion—-> Eutectrix —-> Amorphology. Has PhD Materials Science from Ohio State. It appears we are moving our machines to Pasadena to support the venture.
Put this in the context of LQMT….
Looking at the “Titans of Industry/Commerce” we see Rockefeller, Ford, Kellogg, Walton, Jobs, Gates, Bezos, Musk plus or minus. What do they have in common?
They are “founders” of their industry
They are male (a hint)
They were/are obsessive with the task
They were very analytical
They were not fun people
They lacked “people skills” to mesh with society.
WAY out of my area…they may have been borderline/mildly autistic.
Where is this going? We have no “founder” to drive the process so the ownership of achieving success is a little less motivated. You can’t throw money at someone and create the same level of commitment that a founder has. No amount of bonus or stock options can get there…..this is a big problem.
ANECDOTE…Personal experience…I worked for a “founder owned/operated” company that started in 1935 (depression) and was successful in spite of the economy. After 20 years or so, it was decided that we needed “professional management” so we hired a raft of MBA’s who transitioned through the business (typical 3 years) …it was HELL. The popular term at the time was “Opportunistic Tourists” and you could rank commitment by where they chose to live. The company was headquartered about 20 miles from a major city and if they chose to locate in the city suburbs, they were less committed (options open) than if they chose to live closer. We sifted through manpower for about 2 DECADES before things stabilized…..chaos.
THE POINT…..We have no “Founder” with sufficient fire in the belly to make success happen and you can’t just go out and buy one.
I first invested in LQMT in 2014 and I have yet to see a profitable quarter and I see the next major milestone for the company is to reach breakeven. Any steps to lower the B/E bar is fair game….raise the rent, go for 4.5% vs. 4.0, increase sales, reduce travel…anything up to and including a car wash
.
Annual loss for 2023 was $2 million which is down from $2.3 million in 2022. Its trending down on a quarterly basis but SOOO SLOWLY.
You forgot $23 million @ 4% and the real estate appreciation….remember TC mentioned that the $7.8 million building has appreciated by 50-100% since purchase. Our cash pile could easily last 20 years. I won’t.
Will Tom Selleck do a $15 million reverse mortgage on an industrial building?
Our 5 year agreement with EUCTECTIX is due to expire in January 2025. The royalty/commission schedule for this arrangement was 6% + 6% which looked good at the time but has yet to return a DIME. What is the value of free equipment storage for 5 years? …..at least we got the depreciation!
I would have rather have had outrageous sales at a lower percent return. We could be renegotiating the fees for the next 5 year term right now.
I can throw another curve ball into this game…..9 month revenue for 2023 was only $224k so the uptick in Q4 was more like $280k…..how much of that increase can be attributed to the ring opportunity….no way to tell.
The trick is to reach valid conclusions with only partial input.
I did use the word “guessing” and the royalty/commission details of the manufacturing agreement haven’t been disclosed so we are going to pile assumptions on guesses on so it’s worth about nothing.
A typical manufacturing cost structure starts at 100%….of that 25%-33% represents the cost of raw materials…..another 25%-33% is labor and the remainder is G&A, profit and other. The “other” is where the commissions/royalties fall.
Here comes the guesswork….
If the application were to originate in China and sold in the US (our exclusive territory) I would expect something like 3%.
If the application were to originate in the US and sold in the US….I would expect 3% + another 3%-5% for the legwork.
The big guess is the selling price to Movano Health….I picked $25-$30 which represents roughly 10% of the selling price of $269 and probably 20% of Movano’s manufacturing cost …the electronics from OSRAM are probably 40%-50% of product manufacturing cost. The rest is G&A etc.
Recognize that I’m not an accounting person but my background is manufacturing engineering which may be useful.
Joshua used a number of $1 million/year impact on LQMT. Frankly, that may be light…It’s not beyond the possibility that Movano can sell a million units this year @ $269 or $269 million gross revenue. I’m guessing the selling price of the LQMT portion will be $25-30 per ring and our cut is $3-5 per ring. That could easily be $3-5 million.
Halve the numbers and it’s still monumental.
FYI…not really true about the 10Q…..the ring was included as the reason for the bump in revenue just below the Income Statement. See page 24 of the 10Q or my post 232147 on 3/15/2024.
I bought a small position in MOVE not because of the EVIE ring but because of their unique approach of using radio frequency instead of infrared to measure various parameters. I’m more interested in oxygen, blood pressure and glucose for starters..Down the road I would like them to expand into male health…why ignore half the potential market? Targets such as blood alcohol (or TCH), testosterone, PSA and the enzymes associated with heart attack. LiquidMetal could be in the middle of all this because it’s transparent to RF energy.
I see MOVE as an acquisition target but I would hate to see someone pick the up for $3-$4 when the potential could be so much larger
I was a bit disappointed that TC didn’t provide an update on the Golf Venture with ATJ. .it’s been 2 years and there should be SOMETHING to say…even if it’s only “we submitted prototypes to a certifying agency and anticipating a response by year end”.
Our royalty is only 3% but if I remember correctly…we own 78% of LiquidMetal Golf so we get 2 bites at the apple.
The Q4 revenue of $286K was never attributed to prototyping fees or product sales but there was an interesting comment after the Income Statement…it points to the product sales.
“Revenue…Total revenue increased by $127 to $510 for the year ending December 31, 2023 from $383 for year ending 2022. The increase was attributable to an increase in product shipments primarily related to the launch of health monitoring rings utilizing our technology..”
A casual observation….LQMT didn't break out the Q4 results in the financials BUT if you go back to the 10Q for Q3 you will see that the 2023 nine month revenue total was $224K. Comparing that to the year-end number of $510K says that the Q4 revenue exceeded everything YTD. This was definitely downplayed and designed to present the results conservatively….Hmmmj
Any idea what we should expect for 2025? Q1 revenues will be interesting.
Slipped a few decades…..micro-management went out in the 80’s.
Bird in the hand …grabbing a quick 10% and run! Not actually investors….just chasing short term pops.
Stock prices are a leading indicator so the price should reflect the environment 2 quarters out…..I’m expecting double digits!
I began thinking…”If I were looking for a manufacturing partner for LQMT…what would I consider?” I immediately jumped to the Metal Injection Molding (MIM) industry so I went looking for potential candidates. I ultimately found an outfit called “Form Technologies” in Portland, Oregon. Form Technologies has 33 different manufacturing locations in 22 countries. Their customer list looks like exactly what we are targeting.
They are organized in 3 companies depending upon method of manufacture….OPTIMIM has only one location (Portland) and specializes in MIM applications but there is another of interest….their DYNACAST unit (die casting of specialty small products) with 3 locations in the US…..one of which is in Lake Forest, California. Do you believe in coincidences? These guys have the manufacturing expertise to hit the ground running.
Good news/Bad news…..short learning curve/ protect the technology and keep it from being stolen. Safeguards need to be in place for the relationship to work….control the 106b alloy manufacture, strong contract on who can do what etc. It would probably be good to involve Apple lawyers in the contract while stressing to Form Technology the connection to Apple through Crucible Intellectual Property. They need to respect the boundaries.
It’s an interesting possibility…..also interesting that DYNACAST works with magnesium alloys similar to the materials used in Eontec’s “bone nails” so there is also the possibility of manufacturing those in the US as an alternative to the “made in China” problem.
This is the fun stuff!
Upbeat year end call…stay tuned
New company with first product ….anecdotal comments on accuracy could be competitors bad mouthing the product. AI generated feedback….I trust almost nothing. However my FitBit currently says I have 26 flights of stairs and I know it’s really 10-12.
I own a little Movano Health so I’m also looking for any positive comments from LQMT about future prospects for the EVIE ring.
I would be very satisfied with “high” earnings because I come from a multi-billion industry that ran on purchase orders. I don’t consider long term contracts as a necessary prerequisite for success.
My concern is the definition of “high earnings” …is it a comparison to previous quarters/years or are we looking for a specific number. A few hundred thousand would be nice but it hardly moves the needle when we divide it by 917 million shares. A million dollars still works out to $0.001/share ….pretty tiny.
A realistic goal would be breakeven in Q4 and the prospect of being profitable in 2024. The Q4 B/E is a real challenge….more of a “wish” than an expectation.
There is a story about a Russian factory manager who was given a quota on how many pencils he was to produce but he wasn’t supplied with enough raw materials to build the quota. His response was to build 3” pencils instead of 6” pencils and met his quota. AI might be a good answer but you need to define the input parameters very well or you could get something you don’t really want.
As long as everyone is behaving, I’ll share a few more thoughts…
THE ALLOY…I think it’s still 106b since that alloy was used to develop the process for color generation and there is more history.
FLEXIBILITY…Remember the demo where they bend a piece of amorphous metal in a testing machine and deflect it about 1.5” between 2 supports 4” apart? They were touting its ability to bend sharply and return to its original shape. That property, along with the proper cross-section can provide the degree of flexibility they talk about.
SCRATCHING….I have a gold ring with significant wear and it has been alloyed with another metal…12Kt gold only 50% gold. The 106b alloy is 72% zirconium which is a very hard element but we really know little about the “color generation” process. What I do recall is that the surface is bombarded with “something” to create an oxide layer and that layer, depending upon thickness makes the various colors. The thickness of this layer is similar to the wavelength of light. I suspect that the comments about scratching relate to some sort of damage to the very thin color layer which could originate in the assembly process as the electronics are pressed into place on the ring itself.. They will need to work on that manufacturing step eliminate that defect.
Cheers!
So let’s speculate a bit…..If I were introducing a new product to a new market….the first decision is “how many units to make to support the intro?” Pick a number …how about 20,000 since that would mean $5 million in sales which should be a good place to start. That’s a couple million $ in inventory. The next big question relates to the distribution of colors/ring sizes in the 20,000 inventory (15 combinations)so with a few assumptions, the inventory is manufactured and we are ready to go public.
GOOD NEWS….overwhelming success and we have 50,000 pre-orders…..oh sh*t our manufacturing response time is 4-6 weeks so we start scrambling and this is where we are now. It will sort itself out!
Disclosure…I own a little MOVE and a whole lot more LQMT so I just join the other somewhat biased participants on this message board….but I’m a bit more positive. And yes, I’m older than Biden/Trump and still lucid.
Outside purchasers for MOVE??? Full disclosure would have included the purchase dates since at least one of those purchases was in 2021.
Outside purchasers for MOVE??? Full disclosure would have included the purchase dates since at least one of those purchases was in 2021.
I just read the accepted patent application from MOVANO where it specifically states RF technology for the measurement of blood glucose, blood pressure and heart rate in claims 24-27. One more step…still need the FDA on board for the glucose part.
This afternoon, MOVANO. Received a notice of acceptance for its patent for measuring blood glucose using radio frequency (RF)sensor technology. Volume is 10x the ADV.