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Stacy rasgan is a perma bear on intel since 2013-2014. His thesis dit not pan out; he is caught off guard in iphone 7. May be he is shorting when maintaining qcom targets. At some point qcom career aggregation sounds like giga herz war between intel and amd. CPU speed is throttled by memory speed. Same them with modem speeds; controlled by the carriers. It is a very good marketing tool by qcom.
It would be good to debate under what condition apple would use intel modem
1. Contra revenue
2.performance parity based realistic scenarios not theoretical throughput limits
3. cost and performance competitive
4. intel making a special modem
It is not # of transistors that matter, it is cost per transistor, i.e., the transistor can be small but we need the correct backed end, substrate and board tech to pull it off.I believe Intel just like other semis may have had trouble with back end.
As for modems, it does not matter how much throughput the modem has as at the end; it depends on the carrier speeds; Now a days the mantra for component manufactures is to publicize nitty gritty features(That are may or may not be useful) to phone user. We have the same phenomenon in consumer electronics; your latest oled tv is obsolete in 2-3 months. BTW modem speeds have to plato just like Ethernet; Intel is provably waiting for such a moment.
Intel is fast follower in modems; so let us wait and see; I believe they will slog it out in mobile; as mobile data feeds to Data centers.
They seem to be making right moves in 5G
Guys,
if you look at A9 vs intel. A9 is gpu monster. Consequently gpu transistors are small compared to standard cpu skylake 14nm. If you were to replicate A9 functionality at Intel; Intel part will see the better scaling vis-a-vis TSMC.
http://www.techpowerup.com/img/15-08-18/77a.jpg (Intel 14 nm) 82mmsq
http://images.anandtech.com/doci/8475/2%20-%20Die_575px.png 88mmsq
http://cdn.iphoneincanada.ca/wp-content/uploads/2015/09/a9-layout.jpg (Apple A9)8.7 × 10.7 mm :933mmsq
Comments welcome
A9,A9X geekbench scores are out 2090,3569 and 2109 , 5101 respectively for single/multi cores
http://wccftech.com/apple-a9a9x-exposure/
There are lots of ifs and buts; just because you have word and excel does not guarantee corporate penetration. MS could release a killer surface 4 and discount surface 3 for 499.
I dont think; maxi brings anything special than surface
that's awesome you have visibility into Intel, TSMC and Samsungs yield stats..
What evidence do you have to prove that/What makes you think I dont have have yield insights
Cap Ex reduction, Phone is new pc etc.
Intel capex reduction is because of the following reasons
1. Samsung/TSMC dont have full 14nm (front/back) end
2. Their yields suck.
3. TSMC gave up on 14 and going straight to 10nm
4. Intel has about 1-2 years lead (including full 14 nm with 99% yield)
5. Intel will reuse equipment, and factories optimally for 10 nm
So Intel can afford to cut the capex for 1 year.
As for phone is the new PC. Intel is honning in on with SFF/VSFF NUC pcs as well as compute stick. What stops intel from not putting a skylake core M on a 5-7in Device with win10 running with LTE capability (nothing). We just have to wait and watch. Intel needs to feel comparable that the customers will pay top dollar for such a device. It does not want to sell below cost.
At this point they may go after Microsoft/Lenovo/asus/lg/xaumi with the design(5-7 in phone), or might choose to give the FFRD to an entirely new vendor.
Camera/PC/Video Camera/Phone Camera et.al., I have been watching the debate about PCs becoming obsolete just as camera, Yes for low end casual selfi stuff, for anything good you need a true camera. I have seen people taking videos with ipad, it the video quality sucks. I still carry my canon video camera if I have to record any important events.
Having said that, (PC is over kill for websurfing/emails/facebook/or other social activities). Thats why we see people buying tablets and now phablets (instead of phones). The idea is to consolidate devices.
The power of PC is needed for Workstation class tasks(which home user will not need). Unless you are a gamer or take 4k videos, or have a home office.
We know people pay premium for good quality tablets/phones. Intel needs to bring skylake class process or into phablets and slim All in ones with no wires all them time. Along with good hardware we need good stable OS (hopefully Windows 10) with one OS from Phone to Server, and Universal(Legacy) programs under one roof, will light some fire.
We know Contra has stopped ipads into corporate, as well has slowed their purchase. With innovation trickling in phones, Intel is working up its way from bottom to mid tier. With any luck they should come up with some killer features like depth sense, and such to innovate, (to get more/replenish flat PC sales).
One thing I am convinced is that Intel will try to be in all next innovations, they wont sit on the side line just like they did with phones. I believe one or more innovations with Intel Inside will click.
BTW I read bad reviews about iwatch. The limitations and use model are seriously flawed. ( We will know if apple has a newton in its hands this time).
I like Microsoft's augmented reality set (good for gaming/video conferencing), may be we can watch real 3d-k immersive video for 2018/2020 Olympics
Looking at new macbook motherboard size, I did on screen measurement, it is about 3-4" long and 2.5" wide. Can we put this board in a phone/phablet with the same processor? Any thoughts?
Qualcomm @ MWC 2015 - Snapdragon 820 (Kryo core), Zeroth e Sense ID 3D Fingerprint Scanning
Who will buy qcom (apple, samsung or lg). All are developing inhouse chips. LG is a may be. They will end up selling 820 in mid-range.
This is exactly where intel wants to fight the battle
Broxton will go against mid-range phones.BTW we have see what happened to ipad share once intel entered. I expect the same for high-end phones. I dont see any disruptive innovation from iphone or samsung. I switched from iphone1 to iphone 4s to android to windows phone.
There are effectively 4-5 apps i use, and they are available on all systems. The windows phone was $150 (off contract). it is working well for me.
The phone contra revenue question was asked by patrick moorehead in the MWC conference vis-a-vis tablets. BK said the sofia parts will compete on fair market price not contra revenue.
Hi Unkwn,
I understand your concerns. But I believe here is intel's plan.
1.Intel will not participate in high end phones. Only mid/low end with
sofia/sofia lte, Sofia lte is H2'2015.
2. Tablets are commoditized, but Intel can sell 40+ mil without out contra.
3. IOT is Industrial IOT not wearables. It is growing 20+% per year.
4. In tel will grow servers 15+% year until end of decade.
5. as per pcs there ate 700M not updated in past 5+ years, and 300M active gaming pcs that are updated every 2-3 years for a very good margin.
6. Let us wait on altera results for foundry.
I feel phones are going tables way in terms of commercialization, soon you will find a 5+" phone lte for $200.
Who cares what processor is inside, Intel or Qcom, I am hoping Intel will undercut qualcomm (as they will give away lte modem), with the processor.
IBC, Please liquidate your intel position, go preach on arm board, we dont need you hear
muzohub, fpg, et.al, We know you are short on Intel and want amd/arm to succeed, so please go and preach on arm/amd boards.
We know Intel spent 4 B, to get 20% market share, in tablets. Nothing wrong with it as long as they establish moat for arm in lo end, relegate them back to sprinklers.
Intel has 2 years proc lead and shipping products (from $79 Intel windows/android tablet upward) this holiday. They will bleed qcom by comoditizing lte chips, and moving telcos to vo-lte (no cdma/ no royalties for qcom).
Intel has overthrown big guys in the past, it is no different this time, takes a little bit of time.
I for one an not interested in iphones/iwatches, I have moved on. I see a lot of people doing the same. iPhones no longer turn heads. Same with gold ipads and teaming with ibm to go into corporate.
wthdik2,fastpathguru, et.al : If you dont like intel, thats your choice, no one needs your opinion here, there are a lot of penny stocks to short, go short them
TSMC is giving up 16nm and moving all efforts to 10nm.
The rumor is TSMC started a program where any employee can work on 10nm program, whith out requiring the managers permission. They are shutting down 16nm. Looks like all or nothing for TSMC
Intel might be thinking not to support cdma , in order to not pay qcom royalty. They might be going straight to volte
Hi Moorefield/Annidale is a 14 nm part.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Atom_%28system_on_chip%29
14nm atom Moorefield(anniedale) shipping in volume
https://www.zauba.com/import-anniedale-hs-code.html
Intel baby wearable available for pre-order at http://mimobaby.com/
for $199.
My bad missed 3 zeros, I was estimating at $20 per chip
Intel made roughly $1 billion on Asus transform Book T100, is expected to make $4 billion next year.
Source Digitimes : http://www.digitimes.com/news/a20140110PD205.html
Wait until microsoft Release its new OS (Windows Basic). It is supposed to have a very small footprint less than or equal to IOS.
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With the 14nm delay, it'll be well into the 2nd half of 2014 before you can buy a BDW-U/Y system.
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Do you think that by the time Intel announced the delay, they haven't figured out a fix ?
Sometimes it is better to be modest, than brag about stuff. Competition is always watching and changing their plans.
Chipguy,
I agree. Essa does good analysis, but he is becoming very impatient. I saw him getting of yahoo board every other day, and come back the next. Want i saw in mollys press was impressive, it takes a good GPU/CPU to pull visual perception off. If Molly talked every thing what will CEO talk. After what we will Intel show at MWC 2014.
Intel is fighting very well in all fronts (servers, desktop and Laptops). They will build a good SOC with enough graphics and comm capability.
If essa wants to hedge then he needs put some money in ARMH and QCOM and NVDIA.
I believe Intel is well aware of what is happening around them. It is very difficult to play as merchant chip vendor selling stuff to Google and Microsoft and apple without taking sides or pissing them off.
aeassa et.al., NVIDA K1 you seem to be in panic every time. Did you look at GPU EU size on K!. It looks small compared to the one on broadwell. Broadwell Y is a mobile part for tablets. I believe haswell has 40 GPU EUs. Haswell will have more, and bigger GPUs.
Let us wait until the dust settles.
14nm Atom motherboards ready.
http://www.zauba.com/import-cherry-trail-hs-code.html
Intel is building a lot of merrifield phones. Loot at the link
http://www.zauba.com/import-merrifield-hs-code.html