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Coadministration of tacrolimus or cyclosporine with simvastatin can result in increased statin levels and increased risk of statin-related complications. Clinicians may reduce statin dose to account for this, giving up some of the cardiovascular benefits of statin therapy.
If voclosporin plays nicely with simvastatin, then maybe that would give it a leg up over tacro and cyclosporine.
Just trying to reverse engineer what they might be doing with this study.
-Management have their $12 options
-Low bar for Voc has been set
-Company is flush with cash
-Institutions who were finding it so difficult to buy in the 20s (boo hoo), now have their chance
Paging Dr. Caforio, $30 buy out would be like a dream come true for all
Wait, don't forget the expanded share count, $26 and we all go on with our lives
At our major US academic medical center (~3000 beds over 5 hospitals), we absolutely require proof of vaccination (or medical exemption) for our staff and, starting 3/1, for any vendors.
In fact, a US pharma rep who is not vaccinated, needs to look for a new career.
Hopefully the AUPH reps are all vaccinated and ready to come to work to sell their drug.
UK policies are irrelevant to Aurinia sales reps gaining in person access to US physicians
Um no... They have to follow all the same vaccination requirements that we do
I work at a major US academic medical center and we just received notice that vendors and non-clinical visitors will be allowed back on our campuses on Mar 1.
Here we go. They should be able to get it below 18 easy. Maybe 17? We'll see
OpEx next week with Max pain at 17. Maybe will rise into earnings after that, but a dip is likely next week
Don't forget to mention Otsuka milestone payments :)
Options expiration, max pain 17
Since we're supposed to be reading between the lines, how are you all interpreting the insider buy by a member of the BOD earlier this week.
How can the BOD do that in the middle of buy out negotiations?
I am still on Team Buyout, but I'm now thinking that they need a few more quarters of ramping revenue and EMA progress before the price gets to the point that everyone can agree on a buyout valuation.
We'll see what happens.
On the other hand, I just sold some covered calls, so that basically guarantees a Monday AM buyout...
Kiwi,
Increase in eGFR is not an efficacy endpoint in Aurinia's LN trials, nor was it an endpoint in BLISS-LN and it is not an endpoint in the KZR trial either.
As we all know, VOC is not meant to replace SOC, it is given in addition to SOC.
Apologies for jamming up the board with this discussion of things we all know already.
I won't reply further to this user.
Kiwi,
All patients in these studies had normal or near-normal eGFR to begin with! In fact, eGFR less than 45 was an exclusion criteria in AURORA. How do you expect the drug to improve the eGFR when the baseline eGFR is already normal! Please discuss with your wife and let me know
That's "Mr Market," helping those poor institutional investors "gain a foothold." Can you spare a few shares? Help those in need
They did explain it in the call. Weren't you listening?
I like the analyst who said that with stock price volatility it is "hard for institutional investors to gain a foothold". Cry me a river. A lot of us have been here since the 3s, I had no problem gaining a foothold.
But no worries, they'll short it down today and buy it lower. Wouldn't want the institutional investors to miss the boat!
Agree. To be honest, I'm having trouble with this line:
"The mean Urine Protein Creatinine Ratio (UPCR) was lower in the voclosporin-treated groups at all time points during the three years."
I understand that this was a safety follow up study, but a nonsignificant p value here has the potential to muddy the water. That's why we need the details, hopefully will have them soon!
Positive A2, love it, looking forward to more details
R.I.P. $RETA. One less player in the FSGS, IgA nephropathy space
I agree that A2 data could be announced on any day, even today.
However, the messaging from the company has been before the end of the year. So don't anyone get disappointed if it is not here until after Xmas
Honestly, the CFO of this company deserves a spanking
They did open a "controlled equity offering" (ATM) with Cantor. It is in the SEC filings for anyone who wants to read them. It doesn't mean that they have any intention of using it currently, they have said as much in the email posted this morning
From stock twits
"
$AUPH
Wow, didn’t expect to get this but Dana responded to my email:
“Thank you. I have shared your thoughts with management.
When we shifted from a dual listed NASDAQ / TSX to NASDAQ only, we also moved from a foreign issuer to straight GAAP. Our previous shelf was on the TSX and we have been operating a business without a shelf for most of the year. Our leadership/board believe is it important to always have one in place. The add on ATM was purely an opportunistic trading vehicle. We do not need additional funding at this time. Let me know if you have additional questions. Hope this helps.
Regards, Dana”
See ST for screen shot
Grin could be due to Caroline's headtilting flirtation. She was laying it on pretty thick
Nah. Short term traders, speculators looking for a quick profit.
Oops, typo in my previous message, botched the 4 part composite endpoint in the AURORA trial, but this group knows them well enough
Neil Solomons is a clinical trials genius. upcr <0.5, no decr in eGFR >20%, no rescue meds, strict steroid taper, no interim analyses based on 5 patients, no nonsense, no lengthy disclaimers
"Data from the MISSION Phase 2 clinical trial are preliminary and will require confirmation in additional patients as well as longer follow-up to draw any clinical conclusion. Interim top-line and preliminary data from Kezar’s clinical trials that it announces or publishes from time to time may change as more patient data become available and are subject to audit and verification procedures that could result in material changes in the final data."
KZR, lol. Go back to your seat and come back when you have something actionable.
"Data from the full AURORA 2 two-year continuation study is expected to be announced late in the fourth quarter of 2021."
This is from their most recent earnings PR. This data is still 6 weeks away, there must be significant analysis left to do. It makes sense for them to hold out until they have A2 data in hand before any but out negotiations can be completed.
We may have another month to wait for a buy out. Either that or it will happen tomorrow...
This matches my understanding as well
The schedule 14D9 after a merger always makes for entertaining reading. I just took a walk down memory lane with the SCMP document. An interesting read... A few highlights:
19 days elapsed between the Bloomberg leak and the merger public announcement
Tim Walbert was involved in that deal on SCMP's transaction committee!
Anyway, while we wait, I present the following for your reading pleasure:
https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1365216/000119312518011313/d524880dsc14d9.htm
Agree with this. I'd rather wake up one morning and be surprised by the news. Leaks to the news media are indicative, to me, of a breakdown in the negotiations. Possibly a red flag. Let's get this done
Apparently now BMY has delayed their Wed earnings call from 8 am to 10 am (I read it on the Twits)
One interpretation of all of this:
AUPH resistant to BMY's offer. BMY leaks on Friday to rile up the masses. AUPH still playing hardball, no deal yet
Awesome. Looking forward to the squeeze on Monday AM. Maybe we'll hit $35 (or more if the buy out materializes by then)
When I left to take my dog for a walk I was hoping for a close above 22 going into the weekend. Just got home and everything has gone crazy. What'd I miss?!
Evidence of excellent renal health, congratulations!
LOL! Turing test fail, nice try bot
Similar thing happened with Ariad. Takeda wanted to announce the deal at JP Morgan.
I was thinking that this PR was meant to signal that they don't need to entertain low-ball offers and if the bidder didn't get serious they can easily arrange to meet serious investors or potential acquirers at HCW.
Isn't it fun to think about these things!
Can we all just acknowledge that today's PR about HCW was abnormal in two important ways:
1. These announcements are usually made 7+ days ahead of time
2. Normal protocol is beginning or end of day
Don't know how to interpret this other than to say that it's not normal.