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If gold turns negative things could get interesting
Switched to Dust. Gold is up and miners are flat. The consensus seems to be that gold is going to end up around 1100 or maybe 1000 before it resumes it's climb. People buying miners know that so even short pops in gold don't entice buying. NUGT Could visit the low 30's soon before it begins its climb.
This might be a dumb question but.... Do Chinese retail investors buy during the hours of the New York Comex, or do they buy during Hong Kong trading? I'm just curious if they are helping drive the price higher as we didn't have their help last week.
Nugt is supposed to reflect 3x GDX Bull. If GDX is not at its 52 week low and NUGT is then clearly something is afoot. If GDX continues to fall, so will NUGT. If GDX falls $2 to it low on Monday at roughly 22.21 that would be a 8.3% drop or a 25% drop in NUGT. 25% of NUGT price today would be roughly $34. That is NUGT's true bottom if you will. The descrepency is due to decay.
For NUGT to go back to 100 GDX would have to hit around 34. Decay is killing this thing. If gold drops to 1100 I'm not sure there will be enough time left before decay eats this thing alive. I took a good chunk off the table today at 46 at a decent loss. If gdx goes to its low. NUGT will be in the low 30's. That shows you how much decay there has been since June!
I think what is frustrating about trading gold is that intellectually we know that the dollar will collapse at some point. We know that printing trillions will have a severe impact, and that spending ourselves into oblivion will catch up to us. When that will be is anyone's guess, but each day we are 1 day closer. Take this week for example the government is shut down, the debt ceiling battle is coming, that can't be positive for the dollar and weak for gold, but it depends on who's buying and selling I guess. It's all a waiting game
Over the last 3 days it seems like we have been seeing higher lows and higher highs. Of course nugt hasn't followed
Based on the ore market pop in gold do you think the trend will continue it is it ahead fake?
If we can just break through 1320. Every time we touch it it gets instantly knocked down 2 or 3 points
What a joke
It is frustrating to be sure. I keep going back and forth as to whether to take a loss. I feel like I need to wait until at least Monday. If we don't reopen the gov by then and Chinese retail is back online we might shoot higher. Ugh
She's turnin!
Dollar crashing gold rising. Gdx will have to snap positive if this continues. It will likely start slow and then bam! Play catch up
What concerns me is that if the government comes out and says problem solved, gold will likely plummet along with miners even though nothing had changed. Even if the debt ceiling gets raised that just means more borrowing which should be bullish for gold. If the debt ceiling doesn't get raised the dollar could be pummeled which is still below 80 as I type. In a sane world gold would be rising right now. Reading news articles is borderline skitzo. One day gold is going to fall to new lows, the next day the same people are saying its going to the moon and here's why. If there wasn't decay in leveraged etf's I wouldn't care, but there is and that's what makes me nervous. You can't hold in too long and if gold has a short term tank it could kill NUGT.
Gold starting to move hit 1319
Gold below 1300. This is madness. You don't know whether to invest in sticks, sit in cash, buy PM's or sell them. I hope we see NUGT above 50 again. I may just walk away for a week and see what happens. Good grief
Shouldn't gold rise regardless of what happens? If the government shuts down the economy will slow which may entice the Feds to print more. If the government doesn't shut down and they raise the debt ceiling in a couple if weeks, doesn't that mean more borrowing? It seems like the US is in a catch 22
I must say I was expecting a spike up this morning. I looked at Far East trading last night and we were up to 1345. This morning it keeps getting hammered down. Is this a great buying opportunity or are we going to low 40's? I'm averaged in around 52. Maybe a sharp reversal?
I'm in around 54 from the other day. Made a little money on dust this morning. Do you think I should cost average down and pick up some nugt or is it too risky at this point?
It's too bad NUGT gave up half it's gains yesterday. Today is making me a bit nervous. Maybe DUST is a play here as a hedge?
But I guess my argument regarding the 52 week low in NUGT is that it is meaningless. If NUGT reflects GDX then GDX is the chart that matters. NUGT price points get thrown off almost daily due to decay. NUGT's true 52 week low, all things equal is 34. It would be 44 but decay has had a huge impact. It's the same reason that if GDX went to its 52 week high tomorrow, NUGT would be nowhere near its 52 week high. I think charts are important but I feel charts on 3x derivatives have no long term credibility because of decay
But isn't the chart in NUGT somewhat pointless. If no one bought or sold NUGT all day but GDX gets sold down 5% wouldn't NUGT fall by close to 15%? It seems like the only chart that matters is GDX. Resistance levels in NUGT are flawed because decay is not factored in. Maybe I'm way off, looking forward to your thoughts
I don't understand why you consider 4.50 or 45 a floor because it's a 52 week low. Due to decay it is much lower than that. This fund reflect GDX. GDX's 52 week low is 22.21. That is the floor. GDX is currently at 25.08. In order for it to hit the floor it would have to drop 2.87 or 11%. Multiply that times 3 and NUGT's floor is 33% lower or roughly $34 per share. Am I wrong?