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DeFran, I take issue with one aspect of your sentiment. You argue that the board should ignore posters that consistently post misinformation. I disagree. To the extent that a post here is both on topic and not an ad hominem, this is a self-regulating board. I would argue that it is a worthwhile endeavor to challenge such posters' misleading statements. Take my good friend solantey for example. I think this board has a duty to refute his self-serving and intentionally-deceptive posts and further expose his bias. It would further the dual-goals of neutralizing any potential effect his attempted deceits have on new visitors to the board as well as increase the quality of the board by clearing unreliable information.
To be fair, that's a slight straw man. If I'm permitted to put words in RR's mouth, I don't believe his argument was that pharma's were kicking down the door to partner. As I understand it, the point was that there is interest, which I believe the evidence supports. Perhaps I'm wrong, and perhaps this is a distinction without any significance, but those are my unsolicited two cents.
I bet if I juxtaposed all of your posts over the last year from when you were a self-serving pumper with your current posts as a self-serving basher, it would make for a riveting debate. Hilarious and completely full of misreasoning, but it would be quite the even match.
There are so many things wrong with this statement, but I'll choose one. Your assertion that your arithmetic represents anyone's current valuation of the stock is demonstrably false. The deal with the .04 exercise price was struck many months ago, so to the extent that it represents anyone's valuation of the stock, it would have been on that date. Once again you are making statements that are either disingenuous or just erroneous borne out of lack of knowledge. Either way, it's bad.
Wow. The exercise price for the new warrants is 25% ABOVE the current PPS. I don't think I've ever seen more bullish terms in a financing deal, or anywhere close for that matter. That shows the Investors have incredible confidence in the company. I anticipate 12c acting as the new floor in the near future.
Nothing wrong with a little tullie, but I'm a bourbon man myself. Blanton's, Willet, or old rip van winkle (if you can find it) will set you right. The only rational response when you start to feel a little impatient. Or for most things, if truth be told.
This is textbook bubble reasoning. Nowhere did you assert why the comparibles you cited are justified in their sky high valuations. Not to mention that all the companies you cited aren't even comparibles because they are 3d printing manufacturers. Yes, you can make money in a bubble as the price rises, but eventually the bubble will burst
Great observation. I hope GC discusses the results on Monday.
Ha. Agreed.
Viability as it pertains to CTE, a new indication that most had not seriously considered until today. This represents a major opportunity. Commercializing LymPro as it pertains to AD is still on schedule, and news on that front could come at any time.
No, the warrants have not been executed yet, but we're off to a very good start of staying above .10 for 20 consecutive days.
Regarding your prediction of being range bound, fine. (Especially if that range is north of .10.) Not everyone here is a flipper, solantey, and those who aren't are satisfied with our DD and are comfortable with sitting back and letting events unfold.
I vowed a long time ago not to try to time stocks. Short term fluctuations are completely unpredictable, and no one can time them no matter who you are. The only rational way to invest is to take a position in a company you believe in and allow the long-term trend to follow its course. Predicting long-term pps is skill, predicting short-term pps is luck. I don't like to leave my money up to chance.
Amazing. A new study for a new indication for our existing product that's already funded. This appears to be a free addition to our pipeline. Nor will it require much time input on our part, as it's being spearheaded by BU.
Risk, my very best wishes to you and your family. I've appreciated and enjoyed all of your posts since I began following this stock 6 months ago, and I was truly saddened to hear about your loss. I know it's not much of a consolation, but look at the impact you've had on the AMBS family. You're a genuine, good-spirited person, and you've clearly left a positive imprint on all of us. I hope you find the strength to make it through this difficult time, and please know you have many people behind you.
My thoughts as well but GC could also release news during his presentation as he did in San Francisco. I'm very much looking forward to what he has to say tomorrow.
Perhaps there is no effective treatment because we have not been able to diagnose AD early enough. Or, in the alternative, one of the current treatments may become "effective" when applied to patients in earlier stages of AD. Either way, there is value in a test that can diagnose AD early whether there are current "effective" treatments or not.
Take a step back from the ledge my friend. If you're long for the foreseeable future then this is meaningless in the grand scheme of things.
You're right that having a CPT code does not automatically mean insurance companies/Medicare/Medicaid will reimburse for the test, but it is a very large step in that direction. I think you're accurate but under emphasizing the importance of the news.
You're also correct to point out that funding a CPT code to utilize will not cut down the path to commercialization. It will cut down the time to be reimbursed for the procedure after commercialization. But that's not to say this is very positive news. The best way by far for a drug company to get paid is through reimbursement from ins/Medicare/Medicaid as opposed to out-of-pocket from the patient.
All of the great contributors to this board (you know who you are), I hope you're sitting back and enjoying this. There's no better feeling than when your hard work and perseverance pays off.
Now let's hope this is just the beginning. (And I believe it is.)
Ha I can assure you from first hand experience that the legal department can hold up deals. Many times agreements are made in principle and it takes a while for the lawyers to dot all the I's and cross all the T's. Not saying any such agreement is in place, just saying JP is 100% accurate in this regard.
Strongly endorse this post. My sentiments exactly (well, the first two paragraphs at least). The strongest selling point in my opinion is the small mountain of positive scientific data compiled by independent institutions.
Either way, exactly right that this is a long-term investment. The short-term volatility is meaningless.
Very good. Clove, enjoy your vacation. JP, enjoy the waves.
Not trying to accuse anybody of anything. I just want to be clear that what you're talking about is unconfirmed speculation. I hope you're both right, but there's no way for any of us to know what's really going on in the negotiations.
First right of refusal is a right held by the potential buyer, not seller. It gives BD an advantage, not AMBS.
This is all becoming very difficult to follow. Clove it seems as if you're speaking in facts. Can you verify any of the information you posted? You said you are "close to the puzzle." I'm assuming that means you have/are a source with ties to someone working with the company. Have you heard someone credible say J&J is interested and has made a bid(s)? If this is just you're speculation, which is fine, then I'd like to just be clear on that point.
No one would like to see a bidding war more than I would, but we're in danger of getting ahead of ourselves here and setting up a big fall.
I believe our pipeline justifies that valuation, but the market is most likely worried about our financial situation. We can't deny that we need money, but when we do secure financing (either through debentures or a deal) there isn't much to hold the stock back. Here's hoping that we get one, the other, or both sometime soon.
Very true. But the blog post made it seem as if that specific transaction will be directly related to institutional investment. Would love to have known what was in Gerald's mind when he wrote that.
Zoom, brick, JP, many thanks. You answered my question immediately. The quality of this board never ceases to amaze me.
Now the next question. In the blog Gerald mentioned the in-licensing transaction, which we now know the drug it's in reference to, and stated that "management believes [it] will attract institutional investors to the Company."
How so? Is the other party to the transaction so renowned/connected that it will lend instant credibility to AMBS? Is the drug so promising that it alone will attract institutional investors? Either way, an impressive comment by Gerald that may have been obscured by all the other impressive comments.
"Management believes there are significant opportunities for MANF development in Asia, as well as the US and Europe."
Interesting sentence construction, putting an emphasis on Asia. Perhaps this is an indication that relations with the Japanese company that has been researching MANF (the name escapes me) is developing well.
This sentence jumped right out at me also.
Also, "[w]e continue to believe that adding a Phase 2 asset to our therapeutics pipeline will significantly build near-term shareholder value..."
-paragraph 5, sentence 2
Is this statement related to the excerpt you cited? What could this asset be? Where will we find the funds for such a transaction?
Does anyone have a rational interpretation? I have a feeling the answers to these questions will be nothing any of us saw coming.
Great post. This nails home the point that MANF is truly getting traction underneath the surface with some real players. It's just a matter of time before MANF's medical efficacy comes to light. The short-term ups and downs of the stock price are meaningless. The company and it's pipeline is moving in the right direction, and the PPS will eventually move along with it. Trust the evidence.
Flattered my friend, but I'll warn you that I hardly ever post. Office just happens to be closed today. But overall this is an excellent board with many members worth following. Keep tabs on this board and you'll learn a lot and won't be disappointed.
True information, but cherry picked. Thank you for putting it in context. Now we can see that the full truth is much more positive than four aces was attempting to imply
The vast majority if what you say is verifiably untrue. The rest is cherry-picked information and a distortion of the full truth. Your arguments are disingenuous at best and nefarious at worst. Further, you should know that no one is actually persuaded by your posts. If you truly laid out contra arguments to the AMBS narrative with facts, I would have respect for you and would even appreciate a rational devils advocate to keep expectations in check. But as it is, I have no respect for you and would advise you to stop wasting your time. This is the last time I will address you unless you decide to actually contribute to this board.
Very bullish price action today. I would have been impressed if the PPS just bounced back to .08, but if we come back and close green it would show tremendous strength.
Ha great rebuttal. Way to come back on the merits.
Where is rumor street and how do I get there?
Thank you RR. I very much appreciate you taking the time to communicate your first hand accounts of speaking with Gerald. Very interesting conversation indeed.
Fascinating. It also makes me wonder if the publishing process takes two years how much unpublished material is currently out there right now. Also how much information are the insiders who participated in the most recent financing aware of that the public is not.
Agree with this observation. The stock is trading in this channel because all of us holding now believe in the company and are committed to holding for the foreseeable future. The buying above this level last month was most likely traders chasing. I for one believe the consistency of the pps the last few weeks is a positive sign.
That said, let's remain realistic. I'd like to wake up tomorrow and buy a G4 too, but it doesn't work like that unless you're exceedingly good at throwing an oddly shaped leather ball (I unfortunately am not). The current events here show a lot of promise, but the studies being conducted are very preliminary. We're many years away from MANF hitting the market, if it ever does (clinical trials are notorious for being labyrinths). Let's take this one step at a time, and if you enter this stock, be prepared to be patient with it.
Kudos again to all of you doing spectacular DD. I love this board.
There has been excellent DD done here recently re: barcode and others. I just want to join the chorus in voicing my appreciation. You have discovered very important information that I have not had the time to search for, nor the ability in all likelihood. I also enjoyed and appreciated your recollections of your encounter with Gerald, Risk. My apologies for not thanking you sooner.
OT: Blackhawks, you are clearly either a logician or an attorney. If the latter, hats off to you. I suffer from the same affliction. If the former, might you recommend some good books on the subject of logical reasoning? I recently stumbled upon "Crimes Against Logic" and enjoyed it immensely. I would like to continue on this little trend.
Hilarious.
Can't believe "Archer" got snubbed.