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What are you alluding to specifically with that link?
Jbog,
In your opinion, what do you see as a long term growth rate for LGND? I'm fairly fresh to LGND. On the surface level, 5% FCF/EV with their growth over the past 5 years seems interesting.
Especially as cloud compute power gets cheaper (eom)
METC: Ramaco Resources, Inc. Announces Preliminary 2018 Financial Results and 2019 Guidance
TRIL post mortem:
Jotting down some lessons from TRIL. The ideas may seem obvious.
Greater (and lesser) Fools: Bought TRIL as a trade at one of its 52week lows. No need to explain the greater fool theory here. Suffice to say I was the greater fool.
Drawing lines in the sand: Went in with the notion TRIL was cheap because it was at a 52wk low. That line in the same was quickly washed away. Stick to defining cheap valuations based on cash flows, or potential cash flows with a decent level of visibility.
Under funded firms: Recently had a conversation with an acquaintance who told me it is easier to raise 100 million than 20 million. Reason being, less need for future dilution and the company can operate from a position of strength. TRIL, obviously was operating from a fragile position. No more fragile companies.
Im sure there are other ideas to be had, these are just quick notes.
Re: Rebates
Which companies stand to lose the most under a non-rebate system IYO? And conversely, which companies stand to gain the most?
Re Small Service Cos
Oakes maybe you can explain this to me. Why aren't more of these service needs performed in house? There are smaller service co's making good money (with large capex). Is capex the issue? Limited resources, penny wise pound foolish situation? It seems to me over the long term it would be cheaper for oil co's to purchase and perform these operations on their own. Pumping horsepower rental stands out to me as the most obvious middleman that could be cut out.
I remember Dunham buying CHK shares at approximately $21 a share when he started with the company.
It is now fairly evident that the jump in NG prices were due to an abundance of hedge fund shorting leading into the winter (which lead to counter party liquidation). The long term picture of domestic NG prices is still very unknown.
JL, what does Vascepa cost you per month?
"As a corollary, thanks for making us all better biotech investors by suggesting that we concentrate on later stage biotech companies that have a understood MOA. I will never forget the value of that"
I second that
I am not overly familiar with INDV.L. Does anyone have a firm opinion regarding the future prospects of Indivior's 1 month buprenorphine? Will it be able to replace Suboxone revenue? The concept is sound, but I am not that will translate into a blockbuster drug. Although flimy, perhaps we can look at Vivitrol as a comparison?
Re: Markets
RFJ this seems to be particularly true in oncology. Another side effect of social media, which I'm sure is bad for retail investors, is the proliferation of groupthink. Searching for valid information on twitter is an exercise of avoiding land mines. Along the same line of though, I notice more than ever (probably because of the books I am reading) a large amount of narratives fitted from the endpoint back to the beginning point. When in reality an event starts from a beginning point, travels along a spectrum of possibilities and eventually comes to an endpoint. The effect is a neat and congruent narrative which is much more fragile to future changes of events.
Most of the companies listed fall within a tight MC range.
(Commentary on Ethane Prices) DowDuPont Hit as Factory Splurge Boomerangs to Drive Up Costs
Have you seriously considered BABA, JD or any other prominent Asian tech company as a way to buy into this tailwind? Personally, I have to many worries about China to consider a serious investment.
Re: Met Coal Prices
If one is interested in the beer industry, spiked seltzer is the new 'in' drink. The only public company I know of with a known spiked seltzer brand is SAM.
Patterson-UTI says shale fracturing market becoming saturated
JULY 26, 2018 / 11:25 AM / UPDATED 19 HOURS AGO
Patterson-UTI says shale fracturing market becoming saturated
Liz Hampton
3 MIN READ
HOUSTON (Reuters) - Shares of oilfield services provider Patterson-UTI Energy Inc (PTEN.O) fell on Thursday after the company reported weaker-than-expected results in its pressure pumping business, stoking investor concerns that the market is over supplied.
Patterson said it would temporarily stop deploying new pressure pumping fleets to hydraulically fracture oil and gas wells due to oversupply of such gear. The company pointed to a sharp uptick in deployment by rivals and a slowdown in spending by some exploration and production companies.
The pressure pumping business in North America had been expanding as a result of growing U.S. shale production, which in July hit 7.3 million barrels per day, according to government estimates. However, pipeline constraints in the Permian Basin and additions to hydraulic fracturing fleets earlier this year have threatened to undermine some of those gains.
Patterson’s shares fell as much as 7 percent shortly after the market opened, hitting a two-and-a-half-year low. They later rebounded, trading around $16.03 at 11:45 a.m. ET (1545 GMT), off about 1 percent.
“Patterson-UTI’s pressure pumping results in the second quarter will likely add to investor concerns around a slowing of growth trajectory of the U.S. pressure pumping market,” James West, a senior managing director for Evercore ISI, wrote in a note on Thursday.
Patterson-UTI’s decision to halt additions comes after leading pressure pumping provider Halliburton Co (HAL.N) saw its shares plummet more than 8 percent this week on a forecast of moderating growth in the Permian Basin, the largest U.S. shale field.
Patterson’s expects pressure pumping revenue for the third quarter to decline by 5 percent, while gross margins in that business to fall 7.5 percent, the company said.
It said oversupply issues were not limited to the Permian Basin.
“It’s disappointing to hear our peers are continuing to add additional horsepower,” one executive said on the call with analysts.
“It’s made it difficult for us to fill the white space in our calendar when we had delays. Normally we’d be able to shift some spreads and do some fracks for other companies,” the executive added.
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-patterson-uti-results/patterson-uti-says-shale-fracturing-market-becoming-saturated-idUSKBN1KG28L
Re: service companies
I agree with this, though I don't follow any of the 'big three' closely. I do follow SOI closely and think the negative sentiment regarding permian take away has lead to an over reaction. There is a real tailwind for some of these companies which make fracking sites more efficient. See TUSK as an example. PUMP is another service co, however their business requires significant maintenance capex.
Re RUBY:
Help me wrap my head around this. Are they using RBCs to act as circulating payload vehicles? Essentially a MAB with a long half-life?
His blog is an interesting read
Oakes, in a tangentially related field, do you have an opinion / knowledge of Solaris's (SOI) proppant storage systems. They appear to have a good product suite, but it is hard for a lay-person to know if their product can easily be leapfrogged.
I don't know if NKTR-181 is promising. Comparing the abuse attributes to doses of Oxycodone 40mg or 60mg is not very clinically meaningful. -181 compared to Oxycodone 5 would be much more meaningful in my opinion.
As a (half) joking aside, I'm fairly convinced that if TRIL was to have IPO'ed now and marketed itself as a "next-gen" CD-47 company that evades current CD-47 problems, the market cap would be more in line with SURF and the likely high value given to FTSV. I think it was up strong today because of the likely valuation that FTSV will get.
Without going back through the S1, I think it was 2/15 ovarian patients total.
I would consider DWDP a conglomerate currently. Though, this is transient as the separation process is worked through.
Fortunately, energy based politics has very little impact on met coal.
P.S. My little METC reported this week. The steel industry and as a result the met coal industry will look to continue to have a good year.
The only one I'm aware of is Blincyto (Amgen). Maybe others know of more examples.
One would have to properly value SURF's Novartis partnership before trying to compare EV's.
Re: SURF
With approximately 28 million shares outstanding, SURF has a MC of 420 million. The partnership with Novartis seems to be a fairly significant contributor to this valuation.
"Can you folks share your largest potential energy equity holdings?"
By far my largest energy holding is METC. New met coal producer transitioning this year from mine development to cash flow positive producer. No debt, most development related Cap-Ex is completed, and very competent funding firms .
Recently opened a position in EEQ. Simply, I think the reaction post FERC ruling has been over done and a 15% yield is too high.
Met Coal prices are more obscure than most other commodities with daily spot prices. As far as I understand, the spot price is officially adjusted quarterly. A portion of contracts are created on a yearly basis, and some are based on index prices. I don't know if the spot price was adjusted this week based on the news.
I follow 2 met coal companies, Warrior (HCC) and Ramaco (METC). HCC was down 10% for the week, METC was largely flat. METC I follow much more closely, they do not interact with the Asian markets.
Re: Met Coal
FWIW, Ramaco Resources (METC) projects up 2-4 million ton additional domestic demand due to the tariffs. Overall, called the tariffs "a mixed bag" because of the possibility of a Chinese counter.
Whats a Nasdaq listing worth?
Re: steel tariff
Any thoughts if the domestic met coal market will tangentially benefit from the tariff?
XENE - Xenon Valuation
I have started researching XENE and find the valuation interesting so far. XEN1101 as their "lead" in house candidate has efficacy validation based on ezogabine clinical data. Improved safety data compared to ezogabine is the key question. XENE claims no dimerization and therefore no pigmentation, this needs to be clinically shown. XEN901 is the other in house candidate.
XENE has a $50 million MC and $43 million in cash (enough through Q1 '19). Phase one data for XEN1101 is expected mid year. Phase 2 is expected to start by '18 year end. XEN901 is also expected to enter phase 2 by '18 year end, though I am unclear if that is a UK Ph2 or US Ph2. I will assume that both of their partnerships have no value.
My basic idea is that if XENE executes and has 2 Ph2 drug candidates by YE '18 I can see a $100-200 MC warranted.
You can read more about XENE from Ohad Hammer here
Would like to hear any other thoughts.
If electric vehicles last 3-4 times longer, will automakers sell a proportionately less amount of vehicles?
P.S. Has anyone taken a serious look at Cobalt miners? The demand for cobalt (now and future) appears to be significant.
What will GAAP vs Non-GAAP be this year?