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Yep pennies, trendlines are still a good thing and I'll bet that you'll find that your TDI setups will occur at zone boundaries, giving further confidence in zone trades and timing. Always, no. More often than not, maybe not. Frequently enough to make for great trades; very possibly.
pennies.......I did notice that he keeps tight stops, but he sure didn't read the zones right at least as the chart was setup when he posted his chart.
Definately more to be made on the lower time frames if you can get the zones right and keep your stops set tight, and as long as you don't keep them too tight.
I'm still working on how to set the zones properly. Definately not obvious or simple all the time when going back through a chart. At least not for me.
Hey pennies........I watched alfonso's vid that you commented and wondered if he wasn't on to a superior way of laying zone lines and rectangles down but then I watched his month or so old G/U video and found that his method of trading and identifying zones would have let him down as the G/U chart evolved over the next few weeks to where G/U is now. He would have made one good decision based on one faulty zone that he didn't trust to go long from but he totally missed the boat on the bottom zone he had drawn which he declared undependable to trade from but missed out on 1,300 plus pips as the price did indeed bounce up strongly from his daily zone line and even blew through his supply zones too. I need much better than that to trade from, especially when there are so many pips on these daily zones. If you watch his G/U vid and follow along and then compare what the price has done since he posted that vid, you'll see my lack of faith in his method of trading zones. So far, the zones are proving no more dependable than any other technical method of trading. I wish I could say different. Is there no value to identying zones and considering them? No, there's great potential value, but you sure can't trade heavy and you better have a good stop in mind or already set to trigger in event your zone lets you down.
Hey SG........I watched all his vids and in one of his vids he called me "F'n lazy"! I was "Pixxxx" though until he admitted that he was "F'n lazy" too, then I felt ok. LOL
GM all........after watching a slew of youtube vids on how to locate area of supply/demand zones and where to place the zone boundaries and after having spent over the last few days a fair amount of time placing those zones on different fx pairs and watching how price moves back to those zones, I've discovered a few things. These are my observations and you may argue with me or not but for now my minds made up. LOL
1) there's no absolutes with this method of trading anymore than any other method of trading in that the price may reverse within a pip or two of the zone line or many pips within the zone or at the outside zone boundary line or there may not be a zone where you think you see one (at least not yet).
2) so, the zones have pippy wiggle room beyond the brokers spread
3) typically a zone can be located and drawn off the entirety of a smaller candle (wick and all) which immediately preceeds a bullish or bearish engulfing candle following the consolidation of a couple to several consolidating candles.
4) if the zone isn't located, determined and defined by a bullish or bearish engulfing candle then it's equally likely to be located and drawn from the entirety of a strong reversal candle such as a shooting star, or long doji, or a hammer or abandoned baby or whatever. Note that the entirety of the strong reversal candle itself is the top/bottom boundary of the SD zone.
5) There are times when a very strong supply/demand zone line can be observed only historically where upon in it's origination there was neither a strong reversal candle or a bullish/bearish engulfing candle but rather a bit of a long candle, with or without wick, followed by two smaller reversal candles that erase the value of the long candle, and ta da.....the reversal has occurred with like a fart under the bed covers where noone hears it but man was it deadly! Note that the entirety of the long candle itself is the SD zone itself.
6) a previous supply or demand zone will more likely than not present a future line of support/resistance during a consolidation area on a larger time frame. One of the SD zone lines will become a SR line. So an area of consolidation on a weekly chart, i.e., a wave 4 for example, may be an area where the daily chart shows multiple revisits to and through, and back to and away from, and yet another return to and through that historical prior supply/demand zone. Support and resistance lines can be a supply/demand zone boundary line or not be, but support resistance lines can be strong price reversal locations and ought to be considered.
7) as with elliot waves, the larger time frames take precedence over the smaller time frame, so while you may be in a supply zone on a 15 minute chart, watch out because you might be priced right at a demand zone boundary reversal line spot on a 4 hour chart.
8) the price may either reverse at the zone, or inside the zone or at the outside boundary line of the zone, or even a few pips BEFORE the immediate zone boundary is reached SO there's not only the brokers spread to consider but the occasional wide spread of the supply/demand zone itself.
9) these zones are simply one more way to look at a chart and attempt to guess what where the price is headed. Stay light on your initial position entry and be prepared to maybe have to add to your initial position. Plan on maybe having to wait a while before the trade goes your way depending on the time frame you are trading off of as the larger the time frame the greater number of pips and the longer it take for the reversal. And always use a few pips beyond the outside supply/demand zone boundary line as an absolute stop. If it's not a supply/demand zone, or if it hasn't become one yet, then the price can go a long way against you before that zone line is revisited again (the larger the time frame the greater number of pips).
10) Still learning.
pennies.......I watched a couple of the youtube vids that jav pointed out and they too had their zones comprising of a fair number of candles, but this guy "Sam" insists that the fewer the candles the better. The real question is whether any given zone regardless of the number of candles is a consolidation zone allowing for trend continuation OR reversal, or whether it's a true "SD support/demand" zone with nearly guaranteed reversal to be found? How do you know whether or not it's an "SD" zone on a 15 minute or a weekly chart because the price will move hard against you if you get it wrong, as it did for me on G/U last week with that 200 pip rally.
Ok, I have one post remaining today so please feel free to post to me if you want, but I may or may not reply to that post.
SG......pileit posted the weekly SD zone chart I was looking for if you want to see where I was coming from. I watched the guys webinar again and pileit really did appear to annotate his SD zones as "Sam"s SD zones were annotated on his charts on different pairs.
I totally agree with you on the wicks as I've seen wick ends form obvious lines of support or resistance over and over again. Unfortunately for me this only adds further confusion when I try to lay zone lines or levels of REAL support and resistance. I'm really no further ahead having watched the vid. I'm glad you are! Maybe it will click with me later but right now I'm still wrestling with these zones.
Pileit1.......that's exactly what I was after! You're on the same page. With your lowest zone having "been hit once" already, are we going to hit it again and where the next "fresh" supply zone after that? Would it be the next zone up from your lowest, if I understand "Sam" right or would it be your topmost zone? I'm still not getting it totally as "Sam" explained it.
Anyway, your top weekly white trend line that you have a pink point hovering over is the top line of the weekly wedge I'm concerned about in case price moves above it, breaking out from it. If price breaks that trendline, then there's a real pressure release and where's price headed next?
Nice to have you chime in and annotate the "SD zones" as "Sam" does. Thanks for that!
Ok fellas.......thanks to all for posting your G/U zone perspectives. Here's the thing though......none of your charts agreed with what I thought I'd learned from "Sam" having watched his webinar that SG posted the redirect to.
Pennies....remember that "Sam" declares that the fewer candles the better for validating the liklihood of a SD zone, not consolidation zone. There's my dilemma. However.....it's obvious that you are drawing your CZ lines off very real places of support and resistance. I believe your zone is accurate unto itself and applicable but not according to "sams" definition of a TD zone. Btw, he too avoids "lagging" indies. He doesn't use them. But he also doesn't claim to have 80 to 90% successful trades. All you guys appear to be doing better than him. Interesting. Also, I get it about ignoring the wicks for the most part. They are not a key part of zone ID.
SG.......not tossing your chart, but I'm looking for a zoomed OUT chart from you. If you don't have time, don't bother and I'm not offended. Just trying to find that "Fresh" SD zone on the bigger chart picture going back to 2005 or so.
stkjunky.......I have huge enthusiasm in your "trending" chart setup so please keep me posted as you see changes that enlighten you as the chart evolves from here. I too entered too early and I knew I did but now I am worried it may prove to be a lot earlier than I expected.
SO....I am going to watch Sams vid again and refer back to your charts during the process of watching his webinar again. Also.....my concern over the weekly chart is that I am convinced there is a "fresh" supply zone that can be located on the weekly chart going back maybe into 2007 and we are seeing the price move up to retest for a maybe a third time the top line of a multi year WEEKLY wedge pattern which I can't tell for sure whether it is bullish or bearish and like all major pattern borders and more importantly SD zones, the price will move almost explosively as it did back in august of '08 when it began the 5800 pip drop which didn't have an initial bounce until over 2,000 pips had racked up against hte longs.some 6 mos later. Now I know there are 50 to 100 pip bounces to be found in between that 2,000 pips, however the point I'm trying to make is that I don't want to be on the wrong side of the GU breakout of the weekly chart pattern if I can help it and I want to fully understand not only where the truly "Fresh" SD zones are but how best to trade and hold the trade. That's why I was hoping that stkjunkys charting method would help stay the trade once taken and the TDI could help confirm sound entries considering the fact that the price can move in and around the zone lines or never hit the zone as "Sam" says which risks missing the trade altogether. So...I will watch "Sams" vid again and get back with you guys. OK? LOL
stkjunky.......I'd definately like to see your weekly annotated chart too if you have one to throw up with your own zone lines and how it compares with your trending chart setup that you've been posting here and there.
Pennies.......it's good that you and SG are in agreement on the zone areas. I do want to see your charts when you can though so I can get a visual on your TDI, indicator setup to compare with your zone lines and annoations. I want to get a visual on both yours and SGs charts.
Ok SG.....I get what you are saying on your previous post regarding support being support until the fullness of BUY orders get filled. So support is simply unfilled buy orders. And vice versa with resistance.
Regarding your weekly and monthly supply zones, could you please, please post a zoomed out WEEKLY chart with zone lines drawn? I'd like to compare it to pennies when he posts his, and compare it to my own chart as well after annotating my own chart with your given numbers. I want to see your chart with your indies and your annotations.
SG.......I hate to use another post for replying to your prior post, but I have to. Back again, and just reread your post and must say that in regard to trading off "CZ" zones in secondary account would make no sense since the problem is stilll a matter of lengthy consolidation which leads to poorly trusted levels of possible support and thus makes trading off them risky and poor judgement. What I should be doing is maybe trading off the "SD" zones on a secondary account on lower time frames for my scalping gains to add to the gains in my primary account from trading the "SD" zones on the larger time frames.
Having said all that......I see from the weekly and monthly chart on the G/U pair that we are in a "CZ" consolidation zone following a 6,600 odd pip drop during 2007 and '08 to early '09 and we are moving up to test prior wave highs. Do you have a clear "SD" zone identified on G/U weekly and monthly chart? I think I do but not sure and I'm currently unable to post a chart.
SG......thanks for clarifying the difference between CZ (consolidation) and SD (supply/demand) zones. I failed to get that until now. Yes! There's a lot to it. I'm assuming that waves 2 and 4 are consolidation zones while wave 1 beginnings and wave 5 ends are SD zones in a simple description considering that there are many 5 wave movements going on amongst different time frames and within each larger 5 waves. Seems to me we can gain from trading both CZ and SD zones, but the SD zones are the zones I'd like to master which would free me up from being a slave to the fx monster and make larger pip gains in a primary account with the addition of gains from CZ trading in a secondary account as I scalp from those maybe. I have to take daughteer to school but will be back in a few to discuss further if anyone's still around. Unfortunately I only have 4 posts remaining in my "free" ihub account for the day so I'll have to be conservative with my posting.
Unless off course 1.6132 reverses the price either today or over the next day or so since the 18th opened where the 17th closed. That would make a top line to the zone and todays candle body bottom is even with yesterdays candle body bottom which lines up pretty close with the candle body tops of the 15th and 16th Sept for the bottom line of the zone. That would make the zone on the daily chart....
pennies.....I'm having trouble determing a true zone on the daily. Nothing obvious for sure. No equal candle bodies to draw lines across. Makes me consider another high coming.
Another consideration for these zones in my mind is how often the TDI indicator and divergence indicators can be used to help validate the location and occurence of these zones....
Pennies........I'd love to see you post a chart or three annotating your "CZ" zones on one or more time frames on the G/U pair! That's the pair I'm currently short a small position on and I'd love to find a great supply zone area to add on to my position. Maybe a daily, 4 hour, 1 hour and 15? Whatever you have time and inclination to post?
GM all. I've been following along loosely with the zone method of trading and watched sam's painfully unedited 45 minute video a couple times before I began to maybe somewhat understand what he's looking for in determining zone areas and boundary lines of those zones.
What Sam is determining to be zones and what pennies has annotated to be zones sometimes appears to differ from each other. I'm wondering if pennies "CZ zones" differ from Sams zones by definition of identification. Sam's always looking for "Fresh" zones, which are a bit tricky to locate, for me at least, and he's defining those zones to have fewer candles in them than not, as numerous candles indicate that a zone may not be a true "supply" or "demand". For instance, the GU 1 hour chart shows a most recent "zone" with price topped out at 1.61625 and the zone boundaries being at 1.61412 top and 1.61200 bottom as far as I can tell. but there were 11 to 13 candles in that "zone" or what we'd normally call a "wave". So by Sams definition or rules, that may not be a true supply zone. The top line does equal or match up with the 88.6fib on that entire most recent wave down from the most recent top however.
Now maybe the GU 4 hour allows the most recent top candle formation to be called a "supply" zone but it barely appears to be a zone to me with only 5 candles total and no real defined boundaries to annotate on that potential zone area. I guess we'll see how price action behaves around that 88.6 fib line and the current top.
skkjunky.......you've done well, and you have a decade on me in trading....and your experience is an asset in itself. I have a few good years of experience and "all in all" came out $28,000 ahead of my initial account starting balance of $2500, but in the end gave it all to pay off a vehicle, credit card debt and a family member to help them with a failing startup business which failed in the end and I took the $10,000 hit. Have yet to see a penny of the "loan" too. Whatever.....anyway I look forward to sharing tickers at some point during the upcoming year. I'm excited about returning to trading the micro caps. I am extremely picky about picking which microcap stocks to "invest" in since it's not really an investment but more like betting on a horse for it's final race before it gets put down and sold off for dog food manufacture. The key is to be in before the race starts yet have enough confidence in it's chances that it won't die before it can get up to the starting gate. So, maybe I can get to where I want to be before I die of old age. Btw, I always feel like I need to be in a position with forex, and that's part of my problem, but I don't have that same pressure with the micro caps. The pressure for me comes with finding the right one at the right moment in time. I plan to start with $2,500 to $3,000 in my account as before and want to make each trade count. We'll talk about it more when I'm ready. For now forex is where my money is and this board is a sort of home base I suppose.
GM stkjunky……..when the fed began to bouy the markets with taxpayer dollars through QE I lost all trust in charting technicals and intentionally stayed out of the securities markets for the next couple of years. I didn't know what to expect so I was unable to trust the technicals or how the OTCBB and pink sheets price action would behave with the government manipulating the individual stocks and market as a whole. Then during the months to come, I found myself having to put my trading account funds toward paying off personal debt. Seems I was the only one that was really spooked by QE since the markets did return to prior highs and more. Also seems to me that all this national debt (thanks to QE) has to catch up to us at some point and the fed has shot it's sole and single silver bullet now since the middle class really isn't any better able to handle another 2008 then it was then. Pennies has posted wave counts on the S&P that give concerns of another 2008 approaching. What will they (the fed) do then eh?
I plan on funding a securities trade account here before too many weeks pass by and will begin trading the pinks again at least until we return to 2008 market behavior. I'll likely also trade fx at the same time with what I currently have in my account. Though it's off topic for this board, I may shoot some tickers to you and vice versa if you don't mind. May not be till after the new years begins but that's the plan.
stkjunky.......I forgot to mention that after being up over 100% with slow and steady, I became frustrated as previously stated AND took on higher risk AND immedately took a hit which didn't blow my account but set me back by three month worth of gains. I'm not sure forex is where I should be trading and may simply return to the stinky pinkies where I did far better and only left because I was forced to put all my gains on repaying debt and covering personal costs which ocurred following my good gains. Pink sheet stocks come with there own set of risks as anyone knows who has dabbled in them. Nevertheless, my problem really is computer issues and a lack of adequate funds to trade with. The $400 in my account is all I have and I'd really hoped that forex would bring far greater returns than trading BB stocks.
stkjunky………couple things I should make you aware of so that you have a better understanding of where I'm coming from…….I have been playing at this for a couple years now and was up over 100% at one point having traded for a little over 6 months trading the trend reversals only and like you would find myself with "serious drawdowns" but kept managing to close out my trades as winners. I found myself extremely frustrated though because 1) I only had a few hundred bucks in my account to start with (which is still true today) so making 100% didn't cut it for me in terms of taking me where I wanted to be in a few years, and 2) I was never able to trade the trend so I was always looking for trend reversal entry spots. I am trading now just to maintain charting skills and to maybe improve them to the point where I can maybe make better gains by taking larger positions though the all in approach isn't exactly what I have in mind since there is too much room for mistakes on my part by entering a position in the wrong pair, or go long when I intended short, or find myself with internet down and the computer unavailable to close out a losing trade or even realize that my trade was a bum one from the outset, plus the circumstances outside our control like world events or natural disasters, etc.
So I'm not really wanting to go "all in" but I am wanting to increase my risk to the point where I better be right 9 times out of 10 or I'll be spinning my wheels in the end but with a lot more more stress than doing the same with lighter positions. And maybe the occasional "all in" positions with tight stops on high odd setups, but only occasional and only scalping where I'm not likely to blow my account since I'm not holding overnight and I have a stop loss and definite exit in mind immediately upon taking the trade.
I'm glad you mentioned that this is not the setup you've been trading profitably for the last year, but once I get TOS up and running I hope that backtesting as well as forward testing with live funds will prove it out to be a highly accurate and successful setup, as it sure looks to be just that based on the chart you posted. Bottom line…..I'm looking for being able to stay the trend if possible and increase the risk in my position sizes without going "all in" as I'd stated before.
I am currently short on GU myself but holding a small position.
stkjunky.......I've printed your response out for ease of returning to for further study. And, I have read through your reply and it appears you have answered all my questions. The only answer that dissapoints me was the one I feared which was that your setup isn't a full conviction setup that allows for "all in" position trades. Not a big surprise though and I'm not sure that a setup even exists that would allow for that kind of conviction. Still though, the idea of staying the trend on the 2hour chart is alluring as the gains would add up over a years time and possibly the percentages I'd desire. Having said that though.......the only other question that comes to mind is this.....
With all the high accuracy this setup has provided you, what has been the percentage gain for you over the prior months trading from it considering your starting balance and your current balance.
Just trading is fatiguing and I know that these communications take valuable time and energy too so I have to thank you very much for your time consuming and lengthy response to my string of questions. I will do my best to keep the questions less frequent and in fewer number in the future. I am definately intrigued with this setup of yours and hope to get my TOS platform up and running to apply before too may more days pass. I've got other more pressing issues at hand first, but getting TOS up and running is a definite goal. Thanks again.
stkjunky.....have been catching up on posts over the last couple weeks and I'm curious about your TOS setup. The more we have these ladder step trend continuation moves like GU has had lately, where the actual and true tops are nearly impossible to consistantly nail down consistently, for me at least, the more I'm wanting to trade the trend if possible in a primary account while using a secondary account to scalp when I see a high odds TDI setup present on some other pair then the primary account position or even the primary account pair but using the secondary to hedge when the primary account position is looking iffy.
Would you take a couple minutes to identify exactly what indicators, moving averages and tools you are using on your main chart. Keltner Channels? What is the white line that the price returns to? And what is the blue line? Are you waiting for a crossover of the blue line over the white line to determine the end of the trend? And are those red arrows on the chart auto or manually placed on the chart?
And what are you using for alerts in second window where you have the TAC_ADX indi (what is the alert trigger for that "Very long term only" indicator window).
In the "MACD Histogram Crossover(26,12,9, EMA, Positive to Negative)" window, are those white arrows auto placed by the indicator or are you manually placing them in.
Also, in your 4th indi window, it looks like you are using the first bright green upper histo line as a "buy long" trigger. Is that right?
Is there anything else you can share? Are you able to confidently take large positions with this set up? And are you able to trade trend reversals using this setup? At least looking at the specific pair on the specific 2h time frame, that appears to be a very dependable setup to stay in at least through the wave 3 trend waves, if not the full 5 waves, once the 5 waves are underway. I don't have TOS set up right now, but do have an account and can set it up pretty quickly when ready.
Hey SG........I just noticed that the time I posted my reply to you shows as 01:00:33. It's 11am here in Western Colorado not 1am or 1pm. I'm assuming ihub runs on and shows new york time which is two hours ahead of colorado time and it's 1pm there in new york while it's 11:00am here. Weird though somehow.
I did SG.......I double compiled, triple compiled, deleted it from "Expert Advisor" menu in the "Navigator" leaving it remaining only in "Custom Indicators" menu, and restarted the platform a couple times. As I said before, I entered the script exactly as you have posted which is identical to the script that I had gotten from your initial download site source. I didn't remove oromeks copyright or anything. I can click on "Charts" drawdown menu and then click on "Indicator List" and then click on "MA_Shade" in the "Main Chart" indicators menu of the "Indicators" window that pops up and I can highlight and "Edit" all the parameters in "Input", "Colors", Common (for dll), and (all time frames) under "Visualization", checking and unchecking boxes and when I click "OK" and "CLose", the screen does what it normally does when changing settings, however no new "MA_Shade" indicator shows on my chart. I've included or disincluded something wrong in part of the process of "creating" this indi, but have no idea what it may be.
Oh......GM to you too on this labor day weekend day.
SG........that's the one. The very same one, and though it compiles free of errors, it won't attach to the chart, much less run. Don't know what I'm missing in the process, but it's a no go until I figure it out. Thank you though.
SG.......I'd very much like it if you would do that so I can compare the script you post (if you're willing) to what I have in my MA_Shade script. And I'd create a new indi using your copy and pasted version and see if it runs as is. Also, if you have ever created a custom indicator, it'd probably help if you could post the steps of the process so I don't miss a step or make an error, 'cause I'm at a loss as to what's preventing that indi I "created" to attach and run when everything looks good to me in as much as I know how to create a custom indi. I think credit should be given to the true author of these indicators while we're at discussing them, since we are simply using them as they are presented to us via various websites posting these indicators for free and not truly creating them ourselves.
'bout sums it up pennies......thanks. eom
I'll look for your reply Sunday then. Enjoy your labor day weekend!
Just curious.......why not just take a long here with the trendline as your stop loss mark? It wouldn't be much risk for loss and there's loads of pips above to be made in event GU isn't ready to break down yet.
I'm fully aware that the stochs can't be used as a standalone reversal indicator, and I'm trying to reduce indicator clutter so I probably won't use it except as a quick add on and remove for "confirmation" only.
So what's next for GU? Are you considering the bullish engulfing candle bottom as being sound support and maybe looking at the 88 fib as a long entry point?
Oh ok. LOL!
SG......the spread aspect of the bid/ask line should be reason enough to use them. Thanks for pointing out what should be obvious to me. lol As far as the indi goes.....I'm going to see if I can't get another old computer up and running to go to different sites for loading indicators from. I refuse to go to any websites other than my trading platform on the computer that I'm running MT4 on. Thanks though. Your advice is always appreciated even if not always taken.
pennies.......I'm confused as to why you took the GU short last night at 1.55172. The 4 hour chart had a massive bullish engulfing pattern with that 131 pip candle on the 27th. The price pulled back from that candles top over the next couple days and had already presented a right shoulder on the inverse H&S pattern so I'm really surprised that the price din't move up off the ascending trendline off 4 hour candle bottoms instead of price piercing down through the trendline to give you your 43.6 pips profit during the early morning hours.
Definately a nice bearish channel to work with in the future though on GU. But are you certain that we won't see one more bounce off that lower channel trendline before price finally breaks down through the channel trendline? It looks to me like we're seeing wave D forming currently which would allow for another bounce before price finally breaks down through the channel.
Sorry, I missed that. I ended up scalping gains and then gave them back up on that NU pattern last night. Didn't give much up but sure didn't keep any gains.
Morning pennies.......flashback to your N/U Eve and Adam chart......you implied that adam was going North in his search for "greener fields", but so far it looks like he's headed for mexico! LOL Is the pattern null at this point?
I was afraid you were going to say that! LOL Guess we'll see how it shakes out. Later then..
Well that's sad isn't it? lol...
So are you still thinking he's headed out or are we going to see new lows yet again? I lost a bit on that last break below the 88fib because Oanda closed out my first trade that I was under on even though my second trade was actually twice the number of units! Never happened before but it makes me nervous to add again in the future.