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Cool, I am glad you are surprised.
I am not saying there is anything nefarious or even negative going on.
More that IMO there appears to be some missing pieces to the puzzle of the uplist.
Yes in these emotional times (for some of us) a lot of opinions get put forth. Lots of short term obsession with the share price here - understandable for traders but long term holders should try to focus on the company performance.
So far I think the points you make are closest to my own views:
1. The offering was probably based on a discount to the split price and yes, as such, was pretty reasonably priced.
2. Does appear the uplist was rushed through - so far this has not been adequately explained.
3. There could have been PR's explaining what was going to happen but for whatever reason these were not issued. I am guessing the offering could have been structured differently, allowing retail shareholders (i.e. us) to participate - again this has not been adequately explained.
4. We are now positioned quite well; on the NASDAQ the company will be taken much more seriously by players from all aspects of the investment industry. In addition we get greater accountability and scrutiny of the company.
Therefore in my view the jury is still out on whether "JN did the best he could in a given situation".
Hey I am on Australian time and I can sleep just fine...
I know the PR is coming too - and can wait to read that.
Watching a stock list just isn't that exciting once you seen one.
Still, to those staying awake: Enjoy.
Doubtless something like this is coming.
My assumption is they are waiting to actually be listed before announcing that.
Doing a bit of a Mark here but:
http://reneweconomy.com.au/2015/the-video-sensation-that-could-tip-balance-against-coal-in-china-97440
(NB: waiting for English version of the video to watch)
The Chinese are waking up fast; this should be great for solar.
Hadn't even considered the possibility the name might be changed.
I wonder how much stronger the governance on the NASDAQ is with respect to telling the truth to shareholders. I have seen how weak this is on the OTC where unscrupulous managers seem to be able to get away with telling outrageous lies and not get punished.
I know this is gonna sound harsh; but
Jim has gotta deliver the solar cell before he gets anything out of me...
HaHaHa........
That's a beautiful excited 'rant' that gave me pleasure to read.
Thank You.
Nah - he was just keeping his options open which any smart businessman would do.
I won't be surprised if we uplist to the NYSE.
Just because that exchange is old school cool ...
Well I will admit to being frustrated with some aspects of Solar3d.
My main frustration is that I think we are not being told as much about the solar cell that is possible even given the reasons for maintaining confidentiality.
Like you I think the positives outweigh the negatives / concerns too. I didn't know about the working of 105b-1 either - part of why this forum is here is to learn new things which helps us weigh up our concerns.
JN wants to be "world class"; in my book that means running Solar3d so its progress is not at the expense of the "little guy". There will likely be a need to attract larger investors to build a "world class" company which of course is part of the rational for up-listing.
To sum up, will be interesting to watch how JN handles the balancing act that will develop.
Actually I don't completely agree:
I feel more like there are 2 separate plans & both are important in their own right;
a) develop the cell
b) grow as an installer company
Doesn't mean we won't eventually market panels with the 3D cell just that its a desirable but not mandatory characteristic for the initial 3D cell sales - which may not even necessarily be to the US market.
As always - not trying to provoke an argument just a different idea/opinion.
I expect MDE will close next week - therefore I must be nuts.
"I didn't like that this dropped after hours on a Friday though."
Seems to me this would be the perfect time to try and slip that through unnoticed.
Yeh, that was my thought too. Could be an error but unlikely a typo.
Rampant speculation would be they were close to a deal with one partner but have since decided to go with others.
Of course maybe they just said was a type to cover the slip...
Hey there,
you put your case quite well & politely such that I think you genuinely believe "there will be no cell"
and yet we have seen other posts that opine the cell is already in panels ready to roll out to some trial customers
these are the 2 extreme views and I expect the truth lies somewhere in the middle and is most like exactly as JN has told it "we are in discussions with potential manufacturers" (& that was said not all that long ago)
If you have a look at competing companies - I mean solar tech startups - you will find they are taking an awful long time to get their tech into production; I think this is best gauge for how long we might take.
As yet there is no solid reason to believe there is a "big problem" but we can't dismiss the risk our solar cell may not be produced - I will be OK as long as JN is giving it his best (and a genuine) shot - that's all I ask.
2 deals don't make a trend either - as you point out
2 dots make any old line - more sample points needed !
IMO the transactions of CSIQ and SLTD arn't really sufficiently comparable to make conclusions - but still interesting to throw the numbers around.
Ha Ha Ha,
very amusing post - of course one deal does not make an "industry trend" and CSIQ is buying a customer for its product...
SLTD is perhaps aiming to do the reverse.
sadly the meaning of "imminent" has been corrupted these days in PR speak...
and the PR was a pure PR (no news content) but at least shows JN is getting about; putting the word out etc etc - all part of the job
Yes - unfortunately I can only say that no documentation will be found on HyperSolar's Australian presence - this is because hydrogen conversion is now classified information (due to foreign power interest) - meaning that the project can neither be confirmed or denied.
I'm thinking won't be Sun Edison or Sunpower...
I'm thinking Malaysia/Singapore for manufacturing
(these 2 places seem to understand the importance of solar)...
I am guessing a solar player is more likely than a semiconductor company...
And of course more than anything; I want to see who the partner is and get a solid timetable for taking us through to market.
Um I am not saying we have to build a new plant in China...
I am not saying we definitely have to build a new plant wherever it may be...
I am saying that manufacturing could be more difficult, require more engineering, new equipment etc than what was initially anticipated. Also at this point we are uncertain as to the financial capabilities of our partner.
Don't worry - I still have faith and am long.
All shall be revealed...
Bear in mind this is all just speculation, guesswork ...
I was making a guess that perhaps the $50million of new equity available to us was (in part) for construction of a manufacturing facility - or modifications to an existing one.
You could well be right and our manufacturing will be fully funded by the partner.
Was not trying to provoke you and I know you are right that the Solar3D web site stated the intention was for our cell to be able to be manufactured with existing equipment. So JN will more than likely have been broadly right.
This is just one of those things where the devil can be in the detail. As of now we simply don't know enough details.
Also even if our cell can made using existing methods + equipment we would probably be better off looking at a new, more efficient method - in the long run.
Actually, I don't completely agree with that.
Yes, the licensing route / find an existing manufacturer makes more sense.
But chances are we (& our partner) have to build a manufacturing plant or part thereof.
I think our road ahead is longer than that.
I would put Q,1 2016 as a more likely production target.
the competition develops:
http://www.pv-magazine.com/news/details/beitrag/siva-power-reaches-10m-milestone_100018004/#axzz3QSHutLVQ
interesting for a few reasons:
- Siva are actually announcing cell manufacturing related info...
- see, can take $10 million for a component to make cells/panels in a new and better way (which Solar3D will also want to do)
- the deal appears to have transcended the US/China rivalry
Well I can tell you how to do the calculation:
You need to find an online calculator for solar systems - there must be US ones because we have Aussie ones. Not sure if all the required inputs would be available though - ideally you want the customers electricity bill.
And yes the payback period is also 'speculative' but the result is more reliable and IMO essentially the most useful decision making determinant -for a new solar system in the context of the systems financials.
Well, I think they are most likely working on an exclusive deal - this being the most logical & simple way to initially get a manufacturing deal done. A complex multi-party negotiation - well you gotta think that is less likely.
Less sure on the "large upfront payment" - this seems less likely to me and obviously depends on factors we don't know - like how interested and rich our potential partners are.
And, of course, also reasonable to expect a price surge if a deal is announced - though most of us know how fickle markets can be at times!
Yes : lack of communication - though not in relation to the SunWorks side of the business...
No lack of speculation !!
I expect those savings can be explained with Renesola or similar panels; just am not particularly motivated to try.
One thing I will point out is that those savings are themselves a type of speculation (they are not guaranteed!) though you won't here the salesperson refer to them that way. I think they were over 25 years - just one of quite some factors that make the projected savings quite unreliable.
A solar purchaser should be more interested in the payback period which in general you want to be less than 10 years and a business probably less than 5.
Interesting point of view.
So lets summarize the negative case:
- lack of shareholder communication
to me this is Solar3D's largest downfall; we just do not know what is going on with the solar cell
- the 3D solar cell is all hype and no substance
When I originally invested in S3D my biggest concern was that there was no cell and S3D was just another OTC scam stock. A couple of acquisitions later, some patent progress, likely up-list and my fear is greatly allayed.
Still the "lack of communication" point does allow room for some concern if not outright fear.
- shareholder voting rights removed and concentrated in the hands of a few
I imagine this would have destroyed the pps of most other OTC stocks; however (& IMO) the positive case for SLTD serves as a mitigating factor.
- SLTD's valuation
Well you can model & debate this forever and a day...
I am not happy !!
I am out of US$
I don't want to invest A$
Getting more SLTD is therefore a pain !
Yes I am whinging - but too bad.
My vote is for JN being Jesus...
OK OK.
Facts are in limited supply though. We simply have to guess what is most likely versus what is not likely.
So:
- likely that one or more potential partners have done some due diligence work on the Solar3d cell (supported by PRs).
- likely we are close to a deal: if we guess that's the reason for proposing up-listing ; we can also speculate this is due to the need to raise additional funds for manufacturing (maybe our partner isn't able to pony up the tens of millions that could be needed); probably can speculate there will only be one partner initially for the same reasons
- unlikely there has been a pilot production run (why: because this would take millions of dollars & considerable time; also have a look at how long other companies with new solar cells are taking)
- unlikely that a whole module has been produced (no cells = no module & most likely a whole module would not be needed for sufficient testing)
- highly unlikely that solar3D would sell such modules (even if they were made chances are that they would be kept under wraps)
All of the above is pure speculation !
I know. Feel free to speculate as you wish. :)
OK what you say is possible but unlikely - for a whole lot reasons.
Yes, that is rampant speculation to the max.
Seems extremely unlikely to me and as the case has been laid out - I think some research would disprove what's been put forward. (Does not mean I am going to bother attempting this.)
My own speculation is that we are close to a "deal" and some way off from manufacturing - e.g. may not even happen this year.
Ok dude.
That post is off topic BUT that does happens and investors should be aware of it. Hey - look where we are - the OTC, that kind of behaviour is (almost) accepted, certainly should be expected and in some circles if you succeed - you get a medal !
On occasion some users do have enough influence - especially when back my marketing - those tips sites and emails.
So don't think that because this is Solar3D and you love the company and trust the management that manipulation wont succeed at times.
Be careful out there!
Siva are claiming "efficiency on par with silicon"; this could mean considerably below solar3D's efficiency but they certainly won't need an acre of area.