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the good is that another company is confident in the CVM's model of drug and trial.
I'm surprised how IRX Therapeutics ( a private company) has tested in a P2 a drug ,IRX-2, that is the copy of Multikine. Also the trial is exactly the same of the Cel-Sci trial: interleukines mixture 21 days before surgery or x-ray.
They showed a good OS in HNSCC,furthermore they are testing their drug also in some other diseases exactly like CVM.
I think they are trying to duplicate CVM because of our troubles, surely they believe in this kind of drug.
Does anyone know about it?
TIA
That is why it is right for CVM and its shareholders to be compensated from the previous awful CRO.
The former CRO inVentiv (now INCR INC Research Holdings) in the 2 years when it was in operations enrolled an average of 50 patients/year,
so to reach the 880 expected patients it would have taken 17 years, that's all the period 2011-2028 !!!! A massive fraud at the expense of the CVM's investors and patients !!!!
New CRO enrolled more than 230 pts/year and in 3 years they completed the enrollment.
I think that also the shareholders should organize a CA lawsuit against the former CRO inVentiv, above all in case of unsatisfactory verdict.
they cannot disclose the numbers. In principle only the independent board can know some of these numbers before the data review, it is an obligation to avoid insider trading. They could disclose aggregate data like the total response of all treated patients.
All that is clear in principle...
could CVM disclose something like an interim result?
By an Independent Data Monitoring Committee, for example, or the total OS...
Savara CC extremely positive , CEO Neville is doing a very good job with this Company,he was even able to sell the failed Mast's drug Vepoloxamer for royalties!
Cash, good trials progress and new prescriptions only in 6 months.
https://seekingalpha.com/article/4122680-savaras-svra-ceo-rob-neville-q3-2017-results-earnings-call-transcript?page=1
Likely an offer on demand. The fall from $10 then an offer big as the 40% of the market cap, half sold before the offering by a Mid-company with business in the same field of SVRA. Suspect the 1.2 million shares available to over-demand
half of the shares offered were already bought by Zambon Pharma: 4.693 M shares that is the the 19.9% of the Savara outstanding shares.
Zanbon is an Italian private Co,with 2800 employees and with sales in Europe , Asia, China, South America but not US, then a perfect commercial partner for the non-US markets. They are also involved in Cystic Fibrosis and respiratory diseases.
IMO a merger could be possible as a medium-term target, likely after Molgradex results and Aerovanc results or interim results.
I hope a merger for a worldwide, multi billions combined company next year.
20% could be a down payment for future agreements.
http://www.zambonpharma.com/en/
http://www.zambonpharma.com/en/therapeutic-areas/rare-diseases/
My suggestions to Ceo Neville.
1) organize a R&D and business meeting for biotech press,investors and patient associations
2) consider some possible interim data o some kind of feedback about the trials
the stock dropped due to dilutions and weakness about the expected proposals of the new business plan.IMO The RS isn't so relevant.
241 mil is the Roth valuation of the combined Co. that's about $16 a share. Surely that's only an agreement for the merger and is the market that say-so, however a merger estimation cannot be far away from the reality and I agree that's the current fair value.
I think we are paying also some inexperiences of the new management about the communication of a public company towards the general public. The market is emotional and had high hopes in the short-term for this 'IPO' but it could sense that there will be at least a couple of months of calm and of lack of events and this made it an easy game for bashers.
Maybe a more detailed presentation or maybe Neville should end with something like the usual:" We've been doing indcredible work. Stay tuned" or he should have suggest definitely "news any time", but likely it's not his style and so far the private investors appreciated exactly this style.
Mine was a trying to determine the value of the company, I'm still set in my estimate for the middle-term. The perspective of short-term trading is pretty different, but this cannot change the overall valuation, then I think that these days PPS is very interesting and there is scope to a strong rising trend next months.
IMO
3 drugs well positioned in an unmet medical market can justify my scenario and a corresponding demand aligned with all other similar companies listed on Nasdaq. but I agree with you that you have to follow the market to gain. Most likely the market has regarded as far more important not invest now, in a withdrawal period when the possible catalyst aren't so close, rather than rely on a middle-term fair value.
Of course from $6 is easier to double or to triple that from 10 or 15, especially knowing that Svra is worth much more than 6-7
why should $30 be speculative? PPS refers to market capitalizatio and 500m are realistic even much more, if anything is when. Probably when a trial will have some good results,but maybe before if new big investors and not only the retailers, will forsee the potential.
Yesterday an article on SA refers to Vertex Pharm. , that has a strong pipeline and all in CF, it has a MC of $20B (2 drugs marketed and 2 B revenues), an order of magnitude different but a comparison about the potential is possible.
just a read to begin about GM-CSF inhalation in autoimmune PAP.(Savara Molgradex)
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/22112784
CONCLUSIONS:
GM-CSF inhalation decreased the concentration of total protein and SP-A in BALF, and increase interleukin-17 and cancer antigen-125 in improved lung of autoimmune pulmonary alveolar proteinosis.
A little patience P2/3 should finish 1Q 2018.
My though is that it could be filed for approval in 2018
I disagree $30 is the fair value of SVRA when some P2/3 started
imo Savara pipeline has also a hidden potential and it could be extended to other diseases .
Reading scientific articles I found that GM-CSF (the active compound of Molgradex) is studied for several severe lung diseases like Pneumonia and lethal Influenza. For PAP disease the market is small but for the others 2 it's huge.
Mast started also a trial in Cystic Fibrosis with AIR001 (now Aironite) that could be complementary or even synergistic with Aerovanc.
All in my opinin , but I'm pretty sure that sooner or later we'll hear something like that.
someconcerns,thank you for your answer , I remember the same reading a PR in March. I wanted also to point out that this is not a dilution for Mast ,because it is a combination of 2 company based on their fair values.
I hope that weak hands, short-term investors and gamblers will sell their shares soon
I started to read articles about Savara drugs, imo, Molgradex would be well positioned for an easy and very fast approval in UE and Japan. In some clinical tests results was excellent (that's a reason Savara bought the company Serendex and its drugs).
Although the market for Molgradex is small, have an orphan drug approved is disruptive for a small bio company and the results of the P2/3 are expected in Q1/2018.
I'll follow Savara at least until these results.
new discussion board after the merger MSTX SVRA : https://investorshub.advfn.com/Savara-SVRA-32068/
not a dilution for Mast shareholders. Being a merger you have to add the Savara value that should increase the market cap to $140 million from $35 million.
Maybe you can dispute about 77% vs 23% but not consider this as a real dilution.
It is also very important to say that all Savara pre-merger shares are locked up for 6 months, which means that less than 23% of outstanding shares will be tradable this year.
It is wrong to regard Savara as a stock that is the continuation of Mast, as usually the traders do. The structural change is total, just look at the management: what is left of Mast?
the Mast nightmare's over: merger closed . From tomorrow the ticker will be SVRA and the CEO Neville
management of the merger in Culley's style: awful, as usual
pain for long until Culley is the CEO , also the last day or even the last hours.
I hope they are calling all the shareholders that have not yet voted. Still 2 days to vote
I get that feeling too. The vote has been poorly managed: quite late and inadequately. I hear some votes had not been recorded or not entirely,they did it only after voters recalled.
If it doesn't pass there's a possibility of lawsuit.
Thank you pray.
The nightmare continues, let's hope it's only for a few days.
If this time Cully screws over Savara, Neville and investors will take him to court.
To date the 44% voted,still not enough to reach the quorum (50% + 1), that are 112 million share-votes out of 255 million shares entitled.
There are therefore 143 million shares without vote, and about 15 million of votes (6%) are still needed for the quorum, likely some hundreds of voters.
I'm not worried because this is not a mission impossible by Friday and surely easy by next week, but Culley's organisation has once again failed!
http://masttherapeutics.com/investors/news/?releaseid=2263203
At this point the split ratio is irrelevant. Do you prefer 1 billion shares at one Cent or 10 million shares at one dollar?
It is the same as changing coins in notes, actually a lower float is surely positive for the PPS. In any case it is needed by NYSEMKT rules of the merger that requires 4 or 5 dollar minimum.
Let's think instead of the very positive effects of the merger on this devastated Company: a new pipeline with 3 drugs added and not last a new CEO.
the R/S PPS should be $8-$10, to satisfy the AMEX rules of the merger and to attract institutional investors and funds, most of them have $5 as lower limit to invest in the NASDAQ stocks.
IMO
a huge upgrade:listed on NASDAQ!
"As home to many innovative and growth-oriented life science companies, Nasdaq is a natural fit for Savara," said Rob Neville, CEO of Savara. "We believe the move to Nasdaq will provide strong visibility for our stock, good trading liquidity in our shares, and provide the company with greater exposure to institutional investors."
http://masttherapeutics.com/investors/news/?releaseid=2260932
The reverse split is a cure for this stock. Culley diluted it for years until it reached a shameful amount of outstanding shares. Moreover the merger needs another redistribution among the shareholders then the R/S is inevitable as well as it is required by the NYSEMKT rules for the merger, but, for these same reasons,it shouldn't be unfavourable to Mast long.
A smaller float coupled with the lock-up period for old Savara investors and a renovated management can be finally the rebirth of the company.
IMO a market capitalization around $500M after the merger and after some positive news about trials isn't unrealistic
The lock up period after the merger should raise strongly the PPS. Savara current stakeholders and Mast managers can't sell the new shares for several months, I think that the amount of shares locked are about the 70-80% of the float.Very few shares could be traded after the merger and if all the good news about AIR, Savara drugs and Epic database will come out after the merger easily a x2 or x3 or much more.
IMO
last Savara-Mast presentation was focused only about CF and pulmonary diseases, it seems like the newco is a CF company.
IMO I think that AIR001 will go the other direction, maybe with a big Co. collaboration.
Just an hope
per S4 10 Feb. 2017, pag.31 pdf:
As of February 2, 2017, Mast had an outstanding principal balance of $3.1 million under its debt facility with Hercules Capital, Inc. and Hercules
Technology III, L.P. (collectively referred to as Hercules) that is
secured by a lien covering substantially all of Mast’s assets, excluding intellectual property, but including proceeds from the sale, licensing or disposition of Mast’s intellectual property.
....
The loan would remain in place upon its existing terms, including the January 1, 2019 scheduled maturity date.
The terms are that they must be able to raise some cash 4-6 millions by April 30 and Savara must raise at least 20 mil by August 31, 2017
In other words Hercules controls Mast's assets until merger and, after the merger, they demand a minimal cash supply as guarantee to maintain the loan.
My free interpretation
new Hercules loan agreement.
Signed March 3, is it a new loan with Savara?
https://www.lawinsider.com/contracts/1jdcxwJbogvs1Pflz3g8Bd/adventrx-pharmaceuticals-inc/1160308/2017-03-06
MAST Investor presentation is all focused on Savara drugs and trials. It seems that AIR001, a potential blockbuster in HF, is nearly missing , oly interested in the new application on Cystic Fibrosis against lung infection of P. Aeureginosa. A complementary drug in Savara pipeline.
I'm disappointed about this , because Mast's pipeline value is just alike that of Savara.
Culley has once again revealed his true colours as an inept CEO, that wasted money of his investors for years and years , even unable to carry out a fair merger.
It's better to vote NO at the merger.
http://seekingalpha.com/article/4052271-mast-therapeutics-mstx-investor-presentation-slideshow
having read the numbers of the S4 I would ask Culley: why Savara?
Wouldn't it be better a cardiological Company? Maybe with a P3 close to the end, or with devices for HF on the market?
Can the lockup period be good for PPS?
Yesterday 8-k says that there will be a lockup period of 6-10 months after merger closing for the current Savara shareholders to sell their shares.
Imo this lockup period should be very favourable for Mast price because in fact it permits to trade only the 25% of the whole amount of shares issued by the combined company, drastically reducing the free float available:then less risks to plunge and better chances of sharply rises.
In the worst case the lockup will freeze 75% of shares about the merger price until 2018.