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Good news. So IR has not said anything about the new mgmt having ledger based concerns?
Forward to 0.008?
So in your opinion the people who claim to have written IR didn't really and are engaged in a conspiracy to invent the new BOD? Or do you think the IR made the BOD up and is consistently telling a false story while actually doing nothing?
It is very different. The SOE was a potential end user of the ore that Keevil traveled to China and developed. At least that was the story. These guys are one step earlier and the plan is how to get back to the stage that Keevil achieved with the SOE and HKHE before that. Am I mistaken? Just this time we're going to do it the "right way".
Not the forum for MDN advertisements.
When you wrote IR were they specific about the issues that you refer to as an odorous smell?
What do you mean? Having trouble seeing around the shoe metaphor here. Are the five outside firms assessing different aspects of prefeasibility? Are they analyzing the business case or assessing the value or composition of the deposit, or is this another shot at bench level metallurgy? Are the shoe strings the rocks? What is the leather?
Make it so, Number One.
Starting to think this thing has fallen through again? The silence reminds me of HKHE and the SOE / bulk sample. I think if Niostar can't spin, we're in trouble. Looking for opinions. Don't tell me to "write IR". They're waiting for an update. I know.
How long does it take to put together a business plan?
I agree. Dan is on the hook to build value into this thing when he spins it and it must be beyond the value of the underlying asset. He mentioned the goal of the uplisting and new structure is to "attract capital and partners for the long term development of the project." He's added a dimension to the old 'financing is everything' mantra. To unlock the big money in the underlying asset he needs agreements with partners who will help develop the processing and build the infrastructure in return for an interest in the project and also some kind of an agreement or hint of a deal with a customer for the end product. There have been suggestions in the past that these deals were in the works. Maybe Dan can bring them to shore.
If, as you have said, penny stocks are appealing, but not as much as they were -- then IMO you imply that the market will support the purchase of shares. I know that is a comment on liquidity, but what has Scott done to promote that, Right?
We will all "wait and see" as you said. That's obvious because in the Junior Miner market now there are many with cash in the bank but with the shares outstanding, they must take some time to evaluate whatever news may or may not arise. Do you agree with me on this? It is crucial.
I can't wait to see how Dan approaches it. Do you have a guess?
It is not easy to climb out of a fraction onto a more respectable exchange and I'm not bashing but how is Dan going to do it? Time has passed, and we as shareholders are still holding shares but many maybe have sold some. What do you think is the solution?
I agree. Either way should be good for shareholders. If the newly available capital goes into drilling then the value of the underlying asset is potentially strengthened -- especially if the drilling opens up more depth. If the capital is used to start the uplisting process then it potentially brings more interest and even more capital into the project. I think the media attention that Niocorp is gathering is likely to help bring exposure to Niostar because the asset in the ground is undeniably valuable -- and Niocorp is doing a good job building that case. A rising tide... It's still a gamble because the value of the asset is locked up, but IMO there's a better case for all the pieces (adequate financing) falling into place now than I can remember for years. And there's still enough risk that if you have the cajones you can get in cheap.
Already has. We've had a few posted responses from IR to dig into. These have hinted at a developing path forward. Where do you think we go from here?
Hey SMD, what do you think Dan's order if priority will be? I read that there can't be any open geological work while the uplisting is in process. So if the top priority is uplisting and the TSX venture Tier 2 requirements could be achieved, seems like they'd go for that first. But then there was a response from IR said that there was compliance work necessary before uplisting could begin. That would suggest drilling and an update of the tech report before the uplist process could begin. I know there's a detailed plan due in the near future, but was wondering if you have a guess at the next move.
"The company is planning to host a call as soon as we have our ducks in a row for investors to ask questions and get further clarity on things."
As soon as they have their ducks in a row... How long is that?
I didn't know that there couldn't be ongoing geological work during the uplisting process. Wonder if that includes development of bench scale processing?
Nice post. Thanks for the information. The tier 2 requirements do look achievable. I expect the details will be addressed during the conference call.
When you say Ben do you mean Dan?
Here are a few applicable facts:
• Overall, world FeNb market forecast to double in next 8 - 10 years.
• Current spot price is $43/kg Nb (source: Metal-Pages Ltd.)
• Roskill forecasts price closer to $50/kg Nb by 2015.
• FerroVanadium is the closest substitute, but requires double the intensity usage – current FeV price is $25/kg.
• Japan and India have all announced large steel growth production forecasts. Indian FeNb usage is still very low.
• At current and projected growth rates, world market anticipated to be 180,000 – 200,000 tpa by 2020
Data from Roskill, Metal-Pages, Iamgold, CBMM websites
Another fact: CBMM max production rate is 150,000 tpa after the recent expansion, with the sum of all remaining producers at 20,000 tpa. (Multiple sources)
Current Max supply is less than estimated minimum demand for 2020.
A rising tide lifts all boats. And the lines is gettin tight.
I'd be happier with more frequent updates on the plan and progress toward goals. I don't agree with just do whatever and tell me when it's done.
Say what you will but that PR today was music to my ears. And I don't think I'm the only one.
I agree with this post. The company's intention to Uplist seems more real now that they have announced the name of a new President who has repeatedly published uplisting as his top priority. He said he just needed the green light from management. And I'd say the PR today was a green light.
Why are you asking me when you can ask Dan during the conference call this month? You've been around here longer than me. You know Dan has a Plan.
I know! It's like a broken record. They get some financing and they do some work, then find a way to get more financing, then some more work, and now, again, they've found a way to get some more resources to move things forward. Over and over and over.
It is great news! It's a brand new day.
Dan's gonna fill that pinkie bag up with cash, and I got a big one with lots of room. We know he's invested because he told us that. He told us lots. And one thing I know for sure is that dmbao does not lie. Just searching back through his last ten messages might as well be another PR. He's one of us. And this is OUR SRSR going forward. What would you do next? Drill? Dan's gonna drill. Reorganize the share structure? Bet on it. Uplist? Check. Knock on the doors of every available financier? Dan's got it. And Dan's got friends with deep, deep pockets. Read his posts. Good times ahead.
But investors can get all the accurate, up to date, unbiased information they need right here on iHub! Thanks to all who contribute.
That's right! I agree. He'll probably do something like put out a PR that he will expect us all to believe. What a sham. Glad you're here to tell it like it is, moojer.
no cristina thank you. for us giving so information much that we listen strongly to and yes im glad that intelligent researcher you will sec call. sure they listen will you because I can tell, you know; what this company. Niobium. tell them what you and other smart persons here know about how the insiders done. And mine. Yes! What mine, right? Thanks cristrina and es1 and all you other smart. i am big fan.
It's not that aluminum is an unfamiliar material or that it can't be machined and formed. And I'm sure there are machinists who are experts in working with aluminum.
But the fact remains that automobiles are made of steel. The machines that make cars make them out of steel. The machinists that build cars have built them out of steel for generations.
It's a much less expensive jump to convert from steel to HSLA steel than to convert a plant from steel to aluminum.
Ask VW if you don't believe me.
IAG's Niobium 101 is a good, easy to understand resource that puts many recently voiced worries to rest. A little bit of research will cure a pile of worry.
http://www.iamgold.com/English/Operations/Operating-Mines/Niobec-Niobium-Mine/Niobium-101/default.aspx
For instance – worrying about cut-off grade is probably not valid given that, according to the above document, the base commodity price more than doubled between 2006 and 2010 and is working on doubling again. The increasing price is due to increasing demand and tight supply, these facts have been discussed in detail here and on other sites. The details of the discussion can be found using simple search tools and a couple hours of time.
If anything, IMO the higher commodity prices justify lower cutoff grades and INCREASE the size and value of the deposit.
In addition, recent advances in processing and separation have greatly increased the extraction efficiency of the ore from the gangue. These tech advances are being driven by the REE race, but many apply to Nb as well.
As far as applications – automobiles will be built with lighter HSLA steel, allowing an equally strong body with less material and better fuel economy. Automobiles are neither luxury or futuristic. Many of the manufacturers who are using aluminum currently are looking at changing to HSLA steel because it is more ductile and techniques to machine and join it are well established. You can find a ton of articles and blogs online that will back this up.
All opinions.
This is an amazing time to get in on this story. For newbies like me there is an education in mining, an education in Niobium applications, and an education in building a company in a way that maximizes shareholder value, and keeps costs low. All the information is easy to find and there is a wealth of analysis that can be found using simple tools.
The math to arrive at an estimate of $100+ billion in undefined assets in the ground is easy to do using information in the 43-101 along with the Keevil/ Hawke estimates. However the actual value of the company remains around 17 million. .
Some say unrealized value is worthless, but would it be more accurate to say that unrealized value is POTENTIAL – that is when everyone has to agree that there is substantial historical proof that valuable resources exist on land owned by the company?
Also – the actions of the naysayers here make very little sense if the assumption is that there is no value, and in fact not huge POTENTIAL value.
You can pull on a heavy elastic and it will stretch for a while, but eventually you will run out of energy to counteract the energy stored in the spring and no matter how hard you pull the system will find support. Then maybe you add another guy to try to pull harder?
Thin metaphors aside, the PRICE of the stock is what you can see, the VALUE of the stock is what you can arrive at using DD. The difference between the two, IMO, is the energy that will propel this one once the ignition requirements are met. And it seems to be getting better everyday.
I'm thick – and even I can sense that over the noise generated by the naysayers.
Scott has built contacts among the largest steel related Chinese SOEs, including China Minmetals – China’s largest steel trading company. China Minmetals is the owner of Changsha Research Institute of Mining and Metallurgy (CRIMM), the organization that is in the process of performing advanced beneficiation testing to determine how to separate the Niostar niobium from the ore (gangue). The research is being performed at SOE expense – it will cost the shareholders NOTHING. It is being performed by large players in the Chinese steel industry – producers of HSLA (high-strength, low alloy) steel, the largest demand industry for the Niobium that Niostar would produce.
My points: Scott is building strong contacts. Scott is putting the company name out there among the biggest players in the industry. Scott is building VALUE – More and more as we wait.
I don’t think that any of the naysayers that are posting repetitive arguments about delays can post a single strongly supported point that comes anywhere close to countering these facts – all taken from company PRs.
And there are many, many more risk mitigating arguments that can be found using the simplest DD techniques and a minimal amount of time.
On September 2, 2011, the Wall Street Journal reported that a consortium of five Chinese State Owned Companies bought a 15% interest in CBMM for US$1.95 BILLION IN CASH.
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424053111904583204576546890451706256.html
IMO, this is evidence that the Chinese see real value in Niobium sources and are willing to back it up with piles of cash.
In 2012, Chinese steel production was over 700 Mtonnes and rising. Demand for stronger steel is rising because the strength makes steel projects less expensive – and niobium is what is needed to MAKE STEEL STRONGER.
Every dollar the Chinese invest in niobium is likely to pay multiple dollars back in steel revenue. They paid billions to lock up part of a proven resource. They would not do that if they didn’t see demand.
IMO, patience is the key here. Do your own DD and you will find out that the negative arguments are thin. The strong arguments are not being made.
Simple web searches reveal that, just like the high concentration Niobium Ore at Nemegosenda, the information on Niostar value is RIGHT ON THE SURFACE.
Day #19! Days are easy to count. I've found some material where the author counts the number of Chinese provinces that have expressed interest in Niostar Ore.
It's easy to find. Just Google: Sarissa Hunan, Hainan, Hebei, Shandong, Guangdong
Is it possible that the deal hasn't fallen through? That the LOI isn't expired and forgotten? And that multiple potential financiers recognize the TRUE VALUE in Nemegosenda and that Scott is working with all of them to find the best deal possible for shareholders?
There's plenty of evidence that suggests it.
They say that the bottom of the financing cycle will trim the weaker juniors out of the market. The juniors that will disappear are the ones with big claims but no real value. They say that anyone who has ever "climbed over a few rocks" has experienced this.
But listen to how they define value:
1. The banks back the horse, not the deposit.
Check. Sarissa has Scott Keevil, an established and trusted name. I believe the geologists at PDAC over the naysayers. Scott is Sarissa's most valuable asset.
2. The best deposits are outcropping
Check. High grade Niostar Niobium is located on the surface.
3. The best deposits are in stable countries where the rules don't change.
Check. Ontario is business and mining friendly. The rules are well established. Regulation demands honesty. What you see is what you get. Maybe the BEST place in the world to invest in a mine.
4. The deposit can't displace or destroy existing infrastructure.
Check. There are no farms, no tribes, no existing development that would be displaced
5. The deposit must be easily accessible.
Check. Nemegosenda is located near existing roads and would be efficient and relatively inexpensive to build out.
To me, the video backs up that Neme is what these geologists refer to as a 'hidden gem'. If 600 Juniors disappear, it will probably just trim the competition.
No wonder Scott has multiple suitors and the SOE tripping over themselves to complete a beneficiation study.
Many have mentioned the failures described in the latest PRs from the company. On the contrary, the releases show the steady execution of a business plan that Scott announced FIVE YEARS AGO. I found the announcement in an online market analysis document that anyone could discover with a Google search. He stated that his plan was to partner with a customer, most likely a Chinese SOE, to advance the project. The PRs show me that he has maintained FOCUS on that explicit goal. The PRs have announced delays – NOT FAILURES. I see an explicit difference.
The PPS is not languishing, it is reflecting risk. IMO, reward is proportionate to risk, but I’ve found some mitigating factors:
1. According to the documentation on the IAG website, the demand for niobium is increasing. I’ve found some other factors that support his while researching today. CBMM recently doubled their production with no apparent impact that I could find on niobium spot prices. Can anyone verify or dispute this? If true, it implies boatloads of good. IAG has invested millions in expanding processing capabilities, and is looking at block caving to access hard to reach sections of their orebody. They are spiking production costs and upfront investments, I’m thinking this implies that they believe there will be a return on that investment. Must be niobium supply is NOT meeting niobium demand. Right? This significantly reduces risks associated with commodity prices, and demand risks.
2. According to the Nemegosenda reports linked on your page, a significant part of the HIGH CONCENTRATION Niostar orebody is RIGHT ON THE SURFACE. Dig it up, put it in a truck, take it to the mill. Simple trenching found concentrations of greater than 1% niobium oxide. There is good justification to explore this. Niobium is VALUABLE right now, and supply is not meeting demand. The location of the orebody significantly reduces extraction cost risks.
3. Gulf Dominion historical data includes large amounts of information from drilling and the adit. Rocks don’t spoil or change. In the past, the niobium spot prices weren’t what they are now. The historical data seems to imply that the deposit is economic. And – the geologic data in the reports implies that the deposit might be much more extensive than reserves indicated by the existing drilling. This reduces scaling and mine life risks.
This is from ONE DAY of solid DD. Anyone could find this information.
My belief is that it comes down to risk associated with process and separation. I can’t find much information on what made Gulf Dominion give up (I think it was process related?) or the results of the metallurgy study that Scott launched back in 2008? Can anyone help me with this?
My guess: Bottom line seems to be that the main barrier to solid BFS financing is proof that a process exists that can efficiently and economically separate and purify Niostar niobium. Beyond that SRSR is GOLDEN.
Looks to me like Scott has Niostar well positioned with a SOE that is spending their own money to mitigate this risk.
The SOE has spent over 200 days of work developing separation processes for Niostar ore, and SRSR didn’t pay a dime. I’ll take that deal. According to the PR there is a good working relationship with the SEO that may still lead to a JV. Other deals may be in process – and the SEO is apparently willing to sell the results of the beneficiation study even if they lose the overall deal. Could be they are motivated to maintain goodwill and access to the Niostar product. All of this is good news IMO.
Someone agrees with me because the PPS has strong support above 0.02 even though the project is in a very high risk phase. If the majority thought Scott was inept, or was making excuses there would not be support.
Day #18 since the exclusivity agreement expired and Scott started to broaden his search for a better deal with higher shareholder value.
…And since August 1st, 2012 it has been 234 days that the SOE has spent developing crucial beneficiation and separation processes using Niostar ore ON THEIR OWN DIME.
Looks to me like Scott is doing a good job of increasing the value of our company without sending us a very big bill.