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Must be a late pacer out as stock is off 6% after hours?
I've stated for six months now that if something is coming for Vrng, it would have to come from somewhere other than Goog, because the Administration (IE: Current Judge, Next Judge(s), W/A or USPTO) will not allow the favored son to be nailed--as well to remind others in the future not to mess with the mighty Goog-this unfortunate action does not make us a third world nation either-just a few longs (unknown nobody's like myself really) get taught a good lesson about what real power and influence looks like). A jury trial decision from a District Court is being negated in front of our very eyes--no wonder we were back in the $2.60's today? If I were Vrng I would spend a lot of time in Europe....
Vrng better settle or sell (with somebody) because our Judge is soon to become Judge and Jury, as the original Jury decision is gradually becoming displaced (usurped) by the upcoming one-man (HJJ) work-around trial. This Judge does not want to rule on the RR% (as set forth in the original trial) and upset Goog and his brethren (Obama and Holder-beholding to Goog), and if he does rule-he will most likely have become conveniently educated on a new amazing Goog work-around. Goog is not going to settle with or buy Vrng, because they don't have to as long as they are indirectly in control of the process. So Vrng has probably become quite aware that they need a powerful third party to level the "influence" playing field--so I hope they do a deal somewhere and soon (and MS and NOK would be a great place to do a deal)...
Actually I don't drink, but this case may drive me to it. Enjoy your drink though and thanks for all you legal eagle postings...
Why are the shorts emboldened?
Because after nearly a year of delay and slow-action by HJJ, the event that they hoped for is now at the doorsteps-the jury decision is about to be usurped by a one-man jury of the Judge.
The 20.9% base ruling was no win for Vrng as it was the only testimony offered up by either side, and what good is a base with no RR% to apply against it? The legal eagles observing this case seem to think we are closing in on Goog, I think that we may be closing in on negating the decision by a jury of our peers.
Why would not the expert testimony on the W/A be so complex and difficult for one-man (HJJ) to differentiate that of course it must be colorably different?--especially now after the Goog engineers have had another full year (since they mentioned it pre-trial last fall) to test, debug and implement. Oh sure, the Judge might throw Vrng a bone of a small RR% for the last year or so, but with Laches out of the way, this sort of win is already factored into a $3.00 PPS. I've stated numerous times that this Judge won't rule for a RR%, instead there will be another surprise to evolve from this soap opera, and I believe the shorts know this and are becoming more heavily invested in it.
Why is this happening, due to the unprecedented political prominence of the Master Goog. From whatever source: NSA, DOD, Election Campaigns, or just good friends-Eric Schmidt, Eric Holder and the lot, it appears that no matter how wrong Goog is here--they are just to valuable for this Administration and for evidently the national security of the US. This Judge just doesn't want to rule against them (for whatever reason we will never know-as the decision is coming down to just himself).
Keeping the price flat (to slow decline) and no board or alpha talk plays well for our do-not-will-not-act-Judge. As he wants (is demanding) a settlement so that he doesn't have to be the Judge that rules (sets a RR) against the beloved Goog and upsets the Justice Department and/or Administration. This way he doesn't appear compromised (or just dam biased) if the dueling parties do his work for him. Also a settlement negates any future Appeals rulings that would have undermined his superior judicial work and a declining stock price puts more pressure on Vrng to settle sooner rather than later--closer to the Goog settlement numbers.
Hoggy, since the judge is close to retirement that is when he may be most vulnerable. These major corporations have billions overseas that is in foreign banks (due to US tax rates) and a few million for a villa on the La Provence (or elsewhere outside the US) is not going to be picked up by the FBI (who do their work in the US). This is why I'm most worried is due to his retirement age. His decisions to date have not cost Goog a penny (despite a jury verdict of infringement and a RR due), and these same decisions have cost Vrng over a billion-that is very one-sided.
This is why I maintain that he will not rule (on the RR), he is in a legal box thanks to the steady legal work of the Vrng team and to avoid appearing totally compromised he will delay and delay--until the case becomes a moot point (ie; Goog has perfected a W/A, USPTO miraculously changes their mind, or Appellate Court violates precedent and steps in to save the day).
I, like others, hope we are wrong about the Judge, but so far the writing on the wall is undeniable--as he won't even slap Goog's hand for their mockery of the justice system and his court.
Why I think this case may be different is due to the vast political power of Google compared to other patent defendants.
Heck, Eric Schmidt is a standing envoy of this administration and Google resources stood solidly behind the Obama reelection team.
To those who think that this administration hasn't used its political power in the corporate world-just take a look at the GM bankruptcy process-wherein the unions were paid-off with GM equity while bond holders (senior debtors) were robbed of hundreds of millions. So is it now time to payoff Google?
The court wins for Vrng so far have cost Google nothing, whereas the court wins for Goog have cost Vrng plenty (laches, math error, no RR). The only major defeat for Goog came from the USPTO. The 20.9% ruling for Vrng was understood from the get-go as Goog didn't even offer up counter testimony on this point-why?
Goog is probably more powerful than any corporation in the world right now, due to their planet product prowess, their fabulous growing wealth and very close relationship to the current administration (and justice department)--currently in charge of the most powerful county on the planet. If there ever was a situation for judge to be corrupted--this situation is Ripe....
You are correct, I don't have any more faith with the Appeals Court than with the HJJ Court, due to the immeasurable amount of political influence involved here for Goog by the Justice Dept (current Administration). However, HJJ cost us $550m with Laches, did not correct Jury math error of $150m and won't rule on RR (till he holds his own one man retrial-and then he may not rule) and consequently is holding up another $550m. So why not try the next Court as this one is a bit expensive so far.....
The Vrng legal team has had to put a box around the Goog legal team and also around the judge--forcing him to act against his (and the Justice Department's) beloved Goog. I really don't like the fact that the judge deems it necessary for just himself to essentially retry the original trial before we get a RR ruling--when the whole workaround argument has been around since before, during and post trial. Our best hope may be with the next court (Appeals), so we can overturn the Laches ruling, correct jury math error, receive a punitive RR ruling (for continued willful infringement)and finally land the billion plus bucks due Vrng.
I appreciate that info, but it then begs the question why didn't the judge address the workaround issue at the trial (was it because Vrng didn't?) and why did it take so long to finally address it?
Unfortunately, I think you are probably correct with this case.
The past judicial actions are making this case more predictable; usurping the laches process (no vetting by Vrng allowed), failure to correct blatant jury award error, incessant dragging out on the RR decision (buying time for Goog to tinker with a work around and the USPO), has to this point allowed a minimum of $1.250 billion in potential award money to not be factored into current PPS calculations.
Now the judge wants to usurp the entire original jury verdict by conducting his own one-man trial to supposedly play out to the end of this year. A potential workaround should have been a defense by Goog at the original trial, not a device utilized for the court once you have run out of time (last May) or were unable to influence the Patent Office. A workaround should not become a convenient playing card to throw out on the pile when it is your turn to bet, rather it is complex technology that takes time to develop, test and place into use. This is such an obvious charade.
I also believe that there will be no settlement-why would Goog settle when the time delays are working and every day allows their engineers to perfect a workaround (if possible at all)?
I also believe that we are in for additional delays (long ones) that pushes this closer to a precedent setting Appeals decision in advance of a RR ruling by this judge. Where is the justice?
Your trading strategy has been very similar to mine. I have sold down from my very long position and look to cut it in half again on the next pop--so far (over one year now) I have done well with the stock. I believe a person has to stay long for a potential buyout from out-of-leftfield (such as a Samsung) or a settlement that would cause a spike from the current PPS level (prior to Appeals Court).
I also see whereby several board legal eagles become quite defensive with a step-on of their hallowed legal system and enjoy parsing some of the legal terminology--oh well, I'll stay on the high road and continue to appreciate their research and sharing.
But very big business and very big politics mix well and we are witnessing one of the all-time (precedent setting) mixes before our very eyes. (IBH would even enjoy this).
This case is nothing but politics and power. The judge did not rule on laches, nor on jury error and will not rule on a running royalty (interim interest is just a tiddlywinks sideshow). At some point Vrng will accept this state of afffairs and be forced to settle more so on Goog's terms, because if they don't the case moves closer to the federal court wherein there may not be terms.
After this is all over, our republic will still be intact and the only damage will be to some longs (like me) and insiders, as we are insignificant to the political influence of Goog and how it must be protected (against so called trolls) and preserved for the future election cycles.
The longs have been given their chance to record small gains and maybe there will be a few more or so this fall, I'm afraid there is no hog slaughtering here when the hog is named Goog.
Google has been provided 4 months since May (which the process had already been delayed 4 months in order to force Google to make their claim) to submit their colorably different version. Now they will have had another 4 months till December to prove it up-which adds up to one year(post trial)and nearly two years pre-trial to go ahead and design a colorably version if they didn't have one prior. There will be all sorts of time delays with this complex (technology) process (besides the holidays) which will take an anticipated judgment day well into 2014. The additional time will only allow Google the necessary time to fine tune (make operational) their new colorably version for whomever the judge may be by then. Note, our judge (JJ) is 65 and probably about to retire (maybe at the end of this year) and I have thought from earlier action (or better yet non-action) that he did not want to make a final ruling on this case. So far, Google has done well with JJ, laches decision cost $550m, jury error uncorrected cost $150m, and failure to timely rule on running royalty another $550m, for a total of $1.250 billion. Why, I've stated that this case is bigger than Standard Oil (which was antitrust action), as Google touches every corner of the planet (not just the US) and will in time be the largest company on the planet. JD Rockefeller was not friendly with Teddy Roosevelt nor his justice department, and Google at the present is very well connected-politically. It will then be quite convenient for the Appellate Court (with a retiring judge) to step in and rule on the original verdict-which would render any pending possible RR ruling or other outstanding appeals a moot point. There is no precedent for this type of legal action-but then nor has there been for other recent presidential and justice department action taken without congressional authority. I believe that the "shorts" are strong and unwavering due to the current political environment.
Presently long (and wavering).
Politics can and just might create precedent (I hope not).
The court verdict could conceivably be appealed before JJ rules on the RR-thus making this whole current process on RR a moot point.
But are you a willful infringer if you are proven to have a legitimate workaround (at least since May)? This is why there will be no JJ decision, settlement or buyout until this whole process plays out in the court over the remainder of 2013. By then, the Appeals Court may have picked this up and JJ will never have to rule on the RR and upset his beloved Google, the Justice Department and all the political allies (all the way to the top-a strong reason "get out the vote Goog research" we have four more years of Obama and Holder). I think JJ would like to rule at some point but more than likely by then the case will have been made a moot point. I am long Vrng and very nervous.
West River SD boy, HJJ is in a tough spot and maybe waiting on Appeals Court to go first so as to not be one-upped (again)? He may have some favoritism towards Goog (patent troll argument), but with jury verdict, laches, incorrect prior damages %, recent PTO decision, etc. he knows he has to eventually award RR%--but of course if Appeals court throws it all out-he gets bailed out. Then again, he may be waiting out Court of Appeals because he knows they might be influenced by DOJ (Holder and gang)and he wants to go last. This could be a grand cat/mouse game between the courts??? why would the shorts stay on so long and strong???
Better to move on from Goog sooner rather than later as the RR will have to be litigated every year with Goog--claiming new technology and delaying RR payments (if having to pay at all). Better to seal a deal now with Goog competitors: Apple, Facebook, Microsoft, ZTE, Yahoo or possibly Samsung, as we need a big money (high profile) partner to litigate with Goog going forward in order to level the playing field politically and prominently. Besides there is the same money going backwards with Goog on laches and calculation of damages ($550m + $135m) retrial as there ever would have been (if you could get them to pay) going forward on royalties. A big money (high profile) anti-Goog partner would change the legal playing field and win the day.
A very long shareholder of over 8 months and expect to be for at least another 8 months to see this case through.
Vring has plenty of tax loss carryforward through acquisition and operating losses, so they are not going to owe any tax for quite awhile. So with a $200m settlement, their net will be roughly $150m or at least a $1.25 price per share bump. However, I still think that Microsoft would try and buy them for around $1.0B (pocket change for Microsoft, Google, ZTE, and hopefully Samsung.
Its probably more than settlement talks as it would make a lot of sense for Microsoft to buy Vringo and have access to more information on Google and assist Vringo with the monetization of their patents. Also Goog is down big today so something is going on they are not to happy with?
Shorts were covered before they went short, with brokerage shares owned by their wall street buds, who have folks out there on both sides, and because of that make sure their buds don't get hurt.
Settlement with no money? No judge likes to see his ruling appealed and especially so if then overturned or substantially altered. Vringo needs to move on with their revised company and get after other infringers, Google needs to minimize damages, maintain secrecy and protect customers that partner for search (AOL, etc.). Therefore, one settlement scenario could be--in concert with the Judge that neither Vringo or Google would appeal the judges decision--if the decision consisted of: no new trials, no appeals, no changes to jury's decision other than a 4-5% royalty rate (versus the 3.5% by jury). This scenario would be worth about $750 million to Vringo and they then could get on with monetizing their patents. It would be a cheap out for the infringer Google in that this amount of money is one month's petty cash, and Judge Jackson would have ruled and settled the case. Otherwise, its "Katie bar the door", and nothing will be decided in 2013 with appeals, delays, additional suits, etc. This is why I think this Judge may be taking his own sweet time, because this is a landmark case/decision concerning Google (the Standard Oil-John Rockefeller) of our time. So it has to be well thought out (and decided upon) with all the cards on the table.
With that mouthfull, I am long (quite long), and if so into 2014.
Agree with Been Had-Money generally does rule and I've been concerned about the possibility of a bribe with this judge or an appeals judge at a later date. These international companies with billions of cash in multiple foreign countries can deposit a million or two in a foreign bank account for someone (a decision maker) and US authorities would never know. It is why I believe the shorts are so determined and will stay that way for the remainder of this year. A company like Google doesn't need to settle with anybody for at least a couple of years even if they are dead wrong and in violation of US patent law. A few million here or there is table change to companies that have billions stuck abroad that they can't bring back to the US due to tax reasons. For example, China doesn't care about our patent laws or our accounting standards. With that said; JJ is in a bind (due to jury verdict) and has to make some decisions in the near future, of course he would like to have Big G bail him out with a settlement-not happening (at least not for now and more likely quite awhile from now-if at all). I'm also long and have been accumulating for six months as the noose tightens around JJ, as I believe we will have a few exit points (or lightening-up points) over the next few weeks. Been Had is also right on with shorts and market makers (MM), as they will be allowed out because the large brokerages already have their buddies (the shorts) covered with brokerage shares. I'll also hold a position for two years.