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Yep, slow and steady wins the race :) AAPT
Rinky dink??? From the foothills to Sacramento up along the I80 corridor to the bay area, northern California down to southern California, Los Angeles...
Probably POs for the same DC. The other boxes went out to other Walmarts served by the same DC, Walmart reordered and they are now distributing boxes from the "second" PO.
WRONG!!! Nutrabars are flying off the shelves and Walmart wants to continuously make money well into the future, so Walmart will ensure that the manufacturer of the only dog food bar makes money as well. It doesn't make sense to put your small supplier of a product that sells well out of business.
Maybe at least 1294 boxes per DC reorder per PO. Question is: How many DC's reordered and how many times?
This is absolute proof that Walmart is continuously replenishing the shelves with Nutrabars. The "Point of Sales Replenished" date is 4/25/13, just a few days ago!! Great photo, Highstakes!!
Box 391 of 1294 boxes? Did the other boxes have labels? Maybe the other boxes might have box numbers 392, 393...
"POS REPLN" is "Point of Sale Replenished"
"Partial" means partial shipment.
Excellent post!
Leirum -Good post!
Increasing revenues and share buybacks
Smart investors know there are reorders because:
1) Bars with new dates are appearing on Walmart shelves.
2) Walmart features Nutrabars on their website. They would not do this if the product was not being reordered.
3) AAPT just purchased their own high-volume forming machine.
Still stuck in 2006 and 2007??? Irrelevant rubbish. I don't care what a struggling startup was doing 6 or 7 years ago when we all know revenues were miniscule or non-existent. All that matters is now and tomorrow. AAPT has revenues NOW, which we can all confirm by observing sales of bars at 1000+ Walmarts. I expect revenues to rapidly grow year to year.
I agree that B and L will have to clean up their act and become more forthcoming with financials and facts.
You continue to focus on yesteryear, and I'll focus on the future and invest accordingly.
***LATEST FROM AAPT WEBSITE***
From the Desk of the President Lisa Bershan
April 22, 2013
We thought you would like to know this Press Release was issued today:
LOS ANGELES, CA--(Marketwire – April, 22, 2013) - All American Pet Company, Inc. (OTCQB: AAPT) All American Pet Company, Inc. is very pleased to announce the purchase of its own high-volume forming machine. With its expanded capacity, the forming machine’s new and larger hopper will shorten batch to batch down-time which the company experienced with the previous unit. This forming machine will also increase both volume through-put while assuring larger batch consistency.
The Forming Machine is integral to the NutraBar™ and Chewies manufacturing process. The new unit frees time needed to increase Chewies production off of the extruder while the extra capacity of this new forming machine produces more bars. An up-grade to one unit is actually an upgrade to both units enabling the company to produce product as needed without the scheduling problems that developed using co-packers and subcontractors.
Lisa Bershan, AAPT President, said, “We are asked how will our bar production capacity keep pace with the ever increasing retail demand for NutraBars and Chewies– the response is by maximizing our capital investments in processing and packaging equipment.”
Lisa
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2 more Walmarts in my area--4 total.
What shareholders need from AAPT management:
1. Financials released on time from here on out--no more excuses.
2. Complete honesty and openness about the state of the company--good or bad.
3. Management's adherence to a code of ethics--no more shenanigans.
4. No more excessive executive pay when there are outstanding debts to be paid.
5. A real Board of Directors
6. Shareholder meetings
I'm long AAPT. When I first invested in AAPT, I knew AAPT was a speculation and that its management was the biggest risk, and not the products. AAPT's products have much potential, but I don't fully trust management. I know what it's like to have management destroy the PPS (I was a Tyco International shareholder years ago when it became known that Tyco CEO L. Dennis Kozlowski and CFO Mark Swartz stoled millions from the company). Greed is a good and bad force. Greed drives entrepeneurs to build great companies and create fantastic products, but too much greed can drive management to do the unethical, have lapses in judgement, and forget that their customers, employees, and shareholders come first.
I think Eric is scum for what he did, but I don't think his accusations arose out of a vacuum. B and L need to straighten up and fly right, or this company will sink no matter how many bars are selling.
I don't expect fantastic numbers from this pending quarterly; it's too soon. All the positive news and recent progress will be reflected in subsequent financials. The smart money is already in, accumulating, and patiently waiting.
Until there's YOY increasing revenues, positive cash flow, and profit, AAPT is a startup, in my mind. We can play the definition game here, but AAPT is certainly not an established company, and I would not categorize it along with any of my other less risky investments.
Wikipedia:
"A company may cease to be a startup as it passes various milestones, such as becoming profitable..."
Also from Wikipedia:
"The shares of companies with a market capitalization of less than $50 million are typically referred to as nano-cap stocks.
Many micro-cap and nano-cap stocks are traded over-the-counter with their prices quoted on the OTCBB or the Pink Sheets. The larger, more established microcaps are listed on the NASDAQ Capital Market or American Stock Exchange (AMEX).
Micro-cap and especially nano-cap stocks can sometimes experience volatility. Some of these companies fail to execute their business plans and go out of business..."
"Nano-cap" perhaps?? I don't know, but if you can suggest a more appropriate term, please let me know.
From a long-term investor's point of view, I prefer that AAPT NOT be acquired by another company so early in its history. The really big gains for shareholders are made if the company continues growing, is allowed to reach its full potential, and is eventually listed on the NASDAQ or NYSE. Once listed on the big boards, institutional investors will propel AAPT PPS to the stratosphere. A wonderful example is this former penny stock: Monster Beverage Corp. (formerly Hansen's Natural). Just saying...
Don't forget:
Sporting goods/hunting supply stores.
Also:
Whole Foods and other health food chains
Pet vending machines
Nutrabars with braille packaging for owners of seeing eye dogs
Sales to military for service dogs
Target aging boomers who have difficulty lifting heavy dog food bags or opening canned dog food due to arthritis; bars are portable and easy to open. Great selling point.
With Nutrabars' portability, the potential is enormous!!
Options7 - For manufacturers that also sell direct to consumers, it is common practice for the manufacturer to NOT sell the product less than what the manufacturer's customer retailers and distributors are selling the product for.
From Nuffer, Smith, Tucker's website:
HS - I don't get the emails either, but I noticed Lisa tends to post her letters to the AAPT website between 8PM and 9PM Pacific Time (I'm in California). She sure works long hours!! AAPT long and strong!!
HS - Keep taking those awesome photos!!!
Excellent! It just gets better and better!! AAPT long and strong!!
***MORE AAPT NEWS!!!***
From the Desk of the President Lisa Bershan
April 10, 2013
Earlier today I sent an e-mail with the photo on the left sharing with you that Walmart had begun to raise its retail price for the NutraBars. While the amount shown on the cash register receipt is merely pennies, the significance is quite important.
Based on our continuing sell through, evidenced by our back to back, week on week reorders to the DC’s, the rise in price affirms Walmart’s confidence in the willingness of its repeat customers to pay a premium price for a super-premium product further validating the brand’s true value.
Building a retail consumer brand can only be accomplished with the cooperation and support of its retail partners and we are very appreciative of the team effort that went into getting NutraBars on shelf at Walmart.
Our success at Walmart has raised wholesale buyer awareness for the BARS. Nielsen and other consumer package goods data services fuel the sales forces of our distributor networks affirming the results that can be expected from merchandising NutraBars. Thousands of independent pet stores and many hundreds of grocery store chains will be offering the BARS making their availability nationwide.
Now the business of building a consumer franchise begins in earnest. Our commitments to shareholder
equity are directly tied to the equity we build for the AAPT brands. To achieve that goal we are pleased to announce AAPT has retained the expert and creative services of San Diego based Nuffer, Smith, Tucker, Inc. to create an impactful social media brand for NutraBar that will establish its presence and engage the nation’s dog owners with the first true food bar for dogs and signal the end of the dog bowl and the beginning of the dog bar.
NST has been instrumental in building powerful and effective brand consumer package goods franchises using the tools and channels of social media. You can expect to see and hear a great deal more of the NutraBar as we anticipate our on-shelf presence with neighborhood convenience stores as well.
Lisa
Possible sources could be Business Development Companies (BDCs), venture capital or equity firms, etc. With expanding cash flows, AAPT is for real now and will be an attractive speculative investment.
Agree, and I would add that the shorts' dilution argument just went out the window.
When you're involved in a lawsuit, the attorney usually advises the client to make no public comments, or whatever comments are publically made are carefully scripted. AAPT is doing the right thing by keeping quiet until they prevail in the suit.
I believe AAPT will prevail in the suit. Eric's actions were not that of a rational individual, in my opinion. If he really believed something was amiss, he would have gone through the proper channels. Instead, Eric harmed AAPT and shareholders. If I did not believe that, I would not be long AAPT right now and accumulating.
**LATEST FROM AAPT WEBSITE***
From the Presidents Desk of
Lisa Bershan
April 9, 2013
We have been very busy.
WE WISH WE COULD tell you everything about all that has been going on – as it was happening – but then we could not get the work done that you expect from us.
Our business with Walmart is growing rapidly. We continue to receive weekly reorders from the DC’s with clockwork regularity. We have learned that the stores are increasing their inventory minimums to keep pace with the BAR’s retail acceptance and the reception America’s dogs have had for NutraBars.
WE HAVE GONE FROM CONCEPT TO MARKET!
Moreover, AAPT’s sell through success at Walmart has opened opportunities for sources of structured financing facilities such as purchase order funding and receivables financing that do not dilute shareholder value. We will use these lines to expand and advance our production facility, social media participation, national media advertising, public relations campaigns and coupon programs. As Walmart expands our presence throughout their national supercenters and other stores, as well as other retailers that are scheduled to come on board, the structured financing options available will expand as well.
With demand for AAPT products rapidly growing, so are our needs for capital equipment and facilities. It is our intention to maintain state of the art operations in Kansas. As dogs are social animals, so too have pet parents become active participants with social media. In fact, research tells us that more products are purchased based on the recommendations of peers, than from the influence of traditional media. To that end, each of our brand’s, has a website, Facebook page, Twitter account and a blog through which we directly exchange communications with the marketplace and our customers. We will expand these conversations with traditional media placements, public relations events and editorial placements while rewarding both the willingness to try new products as well as customer loyalty with valuable coupons.
AAPT intends to protect and enrich the investment of its shareholders by accruing equity in our brands – the company’s most valuable assets. Our continuing strategy is to avoid share value dilution by utilizing lender instruments and vehicles available domestically and abroad to enterprises with expanding cash flows from manufacturing.
This is a complicated business requiring our full and complete attention. We want you to know that while there may be moments of communication silence between us; we are all quite busy changing the dog food business forever.
Lisa
Financials have not been released, so noone knows if AAPT is out of cash.
The two Walmarts in my area have been constantly restocking the shelves with Nutrabars with new dates. If AAPT had no operating cash and orders were not being filled, then the shelves would be empty.
Two things must happen before the PPS begins a sustained reversal: release of next quarter's financials and a conclusion to the Eric lawsuit. Until then, shares will linger in the subpenny range and I will continue to accumulate shares in preparation for the day AAPT PPS begins its ascent to the stratosphere.
Bottom feed, always bottom feed...
It's called failure, persistence, and then success. That's how great companies are made. Read "Emperors of Chocolate." Hershey failed repeatedly for many years and he was always in debt, but he never gave up...and then he succeeded. The rest is history. Barry and Lisa are of that same entrepreneurial breed that does not know the word "quit." AAPT continues to move forward and Nutrabars continue to sell and Chewies will soon be on shelves. AAPT is on a trajectory to becoming a profitable company. Within 5 years AAPT will be on NASDAQ or NYSE.
I'm married to AAPT and still married to MNST since it was a penny stock...and then there are all the others. I'm a happy bigamist!
Near where I live:
Walmart Store #1988 (Roseville, CA): 3 boxes of Original and 3 boxes Lowfat on the shelf
Walmart Store #5192 (Sacramento, CA): 3 boxes of Original and 3 boxes Lowfat on the shelf
Selling well and replenished regularly.
BASED ON BAYESIAN ANALYSIS:
AAPT Probability of success: 0.7 (70% likelihood AAPT revenues continue to increase)
AAPT Probability of failure: 0.3 (30% likelihood AAPT goes bankrupt)
AAPT PROS:
Past the development stage.
Management is experienced, persistent and innovative.
Has a unique product in a dull industry and has a niche in dog food bars.
Nutrabars are a game changer in the dog food industry.
Product is suitable for multiple retail channels.
Product is in stores and seems to be selling well per my observations.
Nutrabars are products that are purchased repeatedly, rather than one time.
Institutions don’t own shares, and the analysts don’t follow the company.
ISSUES:
Moldy bars with initial shipment – Problem with glue solved (to be seen)
Debt – Increasing revenues will enable AAPT to pay down debt
Grushkin – Confident AAPT will prevail in lawsuit.
Dilution – Necessary for AAPT growth. Company can buy back and retire shares as revenues increase.
MY TOTAL COST BASIS: $12,526.00
PROJECTED PPS RANGE WITHIN 1 YEAR:
$0.08 (pre-Grushkin PPS) to $0.25 (expected value)
PROJECTED INVESTMENT VALUE RANGE WITHIN 1 YEAR: (after Grushkin case settled and June 30, 2013 financials released):
$49,840.00 to $155,750.00
PROJECTED PROFIT RANGE WITHIN 1 YEAR:
$49,840.00 - $12,526.00 to $155,750.00 - $12,526.00 = $37,314.00 to $143,224.00
ADJUSTED PROJECTED PROFIT RANGE WITHIN 1 YEAR:
$37,314.00 x 0.7 to $143,224.00 x 0.7 = $26,119.80 to $100,256.80
ADJUSTED PROJECTED RATE OF RETURN WITHIN 1 YEAR:
$26,119.80 ÷ $12,526.00 to $100,256.80 ÷ $12,526.00 = 209% to 800%
ADJUSTED PROJECTED LOSS:
$12,526.00 x 0.3 = $3,757.80
RISK-ADJUSTED PROJECTED PROFIT WITHIN 1 YEAR:
$26,119.80 - $3,757.80 to $100,256.80 - $3,757.80 = $22,362.00 to $96,499.00
RISK-ADJUSTED PROJECTED RATE OF RETURN WITHIN 1 YEAR:
$22,362.00 ÷ $12,526.00 to $96,499.00 ÷ $12,526.00 = 179% to 770%
Based on prior investment experience, I expect these shares to trade on NASDAQ or NYSE within 5 years, and then institutional investors to propel the PPS into the stratosphere.
I perform the above “paper napkin” analysis for all potential investments, in addition to further in-depth analysis. I do not take a position in speculative shares unless I know the risk-adjusted projected profit and rate of return. The above risk analysis has been a useful tool for me over the years, particularly for identifying potentially profitable speculative long investments in small consumer product companies and for taking arbitrage positions in general. Investing and speculation is all about risk management.
The above analysis summarizes why I’m long AAPT and will continue to accumulate shares. Good luck to all.
KngmAz - Same here. I had been watching AAPT for awhile waiting for an entry point. After Eric tanked the share price, I was all in. I continue to accumulate shares. Thank you, Eric.
Despite the many bumps along the way that AAPT has experienced and will continue to experience, I continue to accumulate shares. Although management has its faults, they are experienced, persistent and resourceful. These are qualities I look for in small, growing businesses, particularly in the consumer staples sector. My long-term speculations in such companies have been very profitable over the years. This is the only penny stock that I believe has the very real potential to make it to NASDAQ or NYSE.
My take on the latest PR:
AAPT has identified a new retail channel for Nutrabars. There is no mention that they actually got the Nutrabars into any independent or chain sporting goods stores. However, I'm confident that AAPT will successfully penetrate this new retail channel and steal market share from the few inferior bars that are sold in the sporting goods stores. AAPT clearly has a superior product that is attractively packaged.
AAPT monitors this Board. Last week I mentioned on this board that AAPT needs to get the Nutrabars into Cabelas and other hunting/sporting goods stores. Management is willing to consider investors' ideas. This is all good. Who knows, maybe AAPT products in dog vending machines next?
Proof?? I didn't think so...