Register for free to join our community of investors and share your ideas. You will also get access to streaming quotes, interactive charts, trades, portfolio, live options flow and more tools.
Register for free to join our community of investors and share your ideas. You will also get access to streaming quotes, interactive charts, trades, portfolio, live options flow and more tools.
FREE is looking good - I am thinking this was just Day 1 of another typical FREE run. Could fizzle, but seems to have a lot of easy upside as it was beaten down to almost worthless before the bounce.
I adjust my expectations accordingly when trading penny stocks versus regular stocks. In the past 2-years, FREE has had about 4 huge runs - I have traded each of them for nice profits. A 200% run for FREE is no big deal - the company has been destroyed over the years - down from $45 a share to .20 (was $4.5 a year ago, which is of course more relevant). Massive drops like that lead to huge bounces if and when the bounce comes - works the same for all tickers; the further they have fallen and the lower they are, the bigger the bounce potential (stocks follow the laws of physics just like everything else). FREE is of course a high risk/high reward play. Obviously I expect it to go up or I wouldn't be in it, but I would be either a fool or a liar to suggest the risk isn't also high. However, I think the risk/reward ratio on FREE tonight is very good. These are the types of plays I hunt for - history of big runs - high short interest (close to 50% of float here) - coming of an historic low - high volume surge - gapup - close at or near HOD - history of gapups. When all the variables are there, I go for it. I was in this one today at an average cost of about .25. The 75% run today is no big deal - the ticker was .35 a week ago - you have to adjust you expectations when looking at such volatility. I think we will touch $1 out of this run. In the past, we have had some ridiculous volume on this ticker; we are set up to have that again. Don't be surprised if this ticker gaps up 10-20% tomorrow and is up 30% by 10AM.
Wouldn't risk it? When you have a perfect setup like this, you have to take it as much out of it as you can. There are only a few easy high profit trades a month - this is one of them.
Another classic FREE run-up is here and I love it.
I have traded FREE for years - one of my favourite tickers (I have been all over this board in the past). I always leave this ticker in my streamer and have been wondering when it would finally bounce. We have a perfect setup here; shorts, went down on low volume to an historic low, high volume rally today closing at HOD. This will go up 30-50% easy tomorrow. I am targeting .8 - $1 for this run. We will gap and run in the morning for sure.
This article sums it up pretty good:
"The vast majority of shares in a hot IPO such as Alibaba are sold to well-placed institutional investors prior to when the shares debut on a public stock exchange. Only a small portion of those shares are generally set aside for retail investors [this is the immaterial lot I was referring to used by brokers to do a favour for preferred clients - I have some wealthy friends who are fellow lawyers - they are not ihubbers and would not lie about being offered shares at the IPO price]. If the Alibaba shares price as expected at $68, the high end of their price range, that’s what all those well-placed institutional investors and the handful of lucky retail investors will pay for their shares."
http://www.foxbusiness.com/economy-policy/2014/09/18/alibaba-ipo-poses-more-than-usual-risks-to-retail-investors/
You are correct that some retail got in at $68. I was not able to personally, but have some friends whose brokers hooked them up with shares. As you said, they offered them up the day before the IPO (basically, a guaranteed buy at $68 for the next day). Many of the brokerages offer this up to there important clients as a way to generate/keep business. I am still ticked I could not get any at $68; everyone knew this was going to open higher - it was as close to guaranteed money as we can get on the market. I don't use a particular broker to whom I pay trading commissions - I am guessing only those who use a particular broker were offered up shares at the IPO price (ie, you need a personal relationship with a broker that manages your account it seems to get this deal - of course, normally, such brokers are a damn ripoff and offer limited to no value beyond what you can find yourself with a bit of research). I self manage all my accounts as it is important to minimize trading fees as a day-trader.
In the short-term, a short seems like the smart play, but not until EOD Monday IMO after the standard IPO day-2 pop and run. This ticker closed really strong - broke down a stiff wall at $93 and closed near the HOD, ignoring the opening few minutes (which is the PPS I figure we will get back too before a dip, assuming this follows the normal trends). How did you get shares to short; my broker said there was a 30-day restriction on any shorting as per NYSE rules.
I agree with you in part - I think before the dip though, we will get a small gap and pop on Monday, typical of almost also IPOs that close up nicely. Before the dip, I figure this will test $100.
Yeah, I was skeptical of my friends, but the one is a fellow tax lawyer who is not the type to fib so I believe him. He is a preferred customer, and I have heard of instances where the brokerages have relatively small lots at the IPO price to offer their core customers as a goodwill gesture. I, like you, will have to wait until the opening on the NYSE, which I am guessing will take an hour and will be $75+. I don't think I will try to flip BABA today b/c of that - I am going to play the related sympathy tickers instead (loaded up on them last night). That being said, if BABA goes as planned, I will consider loading up EOD for the typical Day 2 pop we should then get Monday.
Agreed - retail always gets screwed on these, unless your broker had some $68's to sell. I was not able to get any, but have some friends who claim they were (through their broker).
I don't think we have a FB here. They sold out the lots to the institutional investors quickly. The IPO roadshow went smooth, and the ticker is priced low to pop today. I will be surprised if we don't touch $85 today. Everyone knows this is high-risk b/c of the China factor, but that was priced into to the $68. Before long, people will ignore the strange structure and the China factor, and this will trade at $100 with a multiple comparable to Amazon.
All I am reading seems to indicate BABA will pop nice tomorrow from $68. I am not going to touch BABA but just play it through YHOO and Softbank. I think BABA is going to gapup and dominate right out the gate - even the anti-BABA folks I read think day 1 of the IPO will do well, which is all I care about.
Example:
http://buzz.money.cnn.com/2014/09/18/alibaba-baba-twitter/
Interesting - that is at the high-end of the range; was going to be $62 at the start of the week. Seems bullish to me; why go at high end of the range is the flop risk is high. Yahoo dipped AH a little on the announcement on small volume - don't think that means anything. I have some YHOO and some Softbank. I can't see BABA flopping - it is nicely priced below Amazon and BIDU in terms of multiple and the hype IPO roadshow seems to have worked. I will wait for the IPO pop and then sell YHOO and Softbank - won't know what they are worth until we confirm the IPO gaps and runs.
----------
(Reuters) - Alibaba Group Holding Ltd [IPO-BABA.N] raised the price range on its initial public offering to $66 to $68 on Monday, reflecting strong demand from investors for the year's most anticipated debut and potentially the world's largest-ever IPO.
The Chinese e-commerce company, which handles more transactions than Amazon.com Inc (AMZN.O) and eBay Inc (EBAY.O) combined, has attracted investors keen to buy into the country's rapid growth and its evolving Internet sector.
The company and selling shareholders will now raise almost $22 billion at the top of the new IPO range. Alibaba remains on track to set an IPO record if underwriters exercise an option to sell additional shares to meet demand, overtaking Agricultural Bank of China Ltd's (601288.SS) $22.1 billion listing in 2010.
Alibaba embarked on its roadshow for the IPO last week and attracted enough demand to cover its entire deal within two days, people familiar with the process said last week. Trading is expected to kick off this week.
The company and some shareholders previously offered 320.1 million American depositary shares at an initial $60 to $66 indicative range. It raised the price on Monday but left the number of shares unchanged.
Alibaba can still decide to price its IPO above the indicated range. But a source close to the deal told Reuters the final level will be "investor-friendly."
"Demand has been overwhelming since the launch," said the person, who couldn't be named because details of the IPO aren't yet public. "Increasing the price range was already on the cards from the beginning."
Reuters reported on Friday that Alibaba plans to close its IPO order book early, after it received enough orders to sell all the shares in the record-breaking offering.
I like RADA's potential best. There were 39M shares traded today, which is ridiculous considering the float. I love any volatile/heavily traded ticker - always easy money to make if one does not get too greedy. The Nasdaq has had a lot of wild plays similar to RADA this year, which has been nice since the penny market has been crap since the historically great first few months of the year (i.e. the P&D pot tickers).
I made good money on dgly and isns - posted a few times on the DGLY board. I actually made more on isns as I loaded up nicely before one of its 30% gapups.
Thanks for the tips on the related tickers; I will add them to my streamer to watch for a potential trade.
Looks like an easy dip and rip in the morning, or a gap and run. Either way, easy money to be made in the morning.
Should be another great run today after the very strong Friday close. This ticker has been a great end of summer pickup for me.
OK, I thought about it for a minute and I am stumped - what does TMD mean?
This ticker fell the 30% I thought it may in my morning prediction, but we did not get the bounce (which would not be expect as it hit its low EOD rather than in a nice morning panic I was hoping for). I am not sure how we will open. Last time we had a big fall after a rally, we gapped and ran. I don't think we will get that tomorrow. I suspect we will gap down a little and fall a little from there, but then get at least a bit of a bounce: that is what I will try and trade. This morning, I actually made a nice little profit flipping the early rally from the low in a two minute trade. This ticker is great for being liquid and volatile; I have had much success on this one timing my in/outs based on the tightening of the spread. I love buying and selling 1K shares in fast moving tickers like this to make quick pocket change - it all adds up over the year.
I, like most daytraders with balls and brains, have made a lot of money on this one and ISNS (sympathy play - anyone who missed it would be sorry, although its run may be done now; I sold PM and only suggest traders watch it for now). I held a little DGLY at close - took 80% of profits. Today looks like August 27 - I am going to load up on this opening dip and dump my shares around 10AM, provided the opening gap down is the LOD and it trends up from there. If the bottom falls out at open, which it shouldn't, I will look for a bounce once it falls 30%. Should be a lot of opportunities on this one today either way - Best stock of the year on the big boards.
Another great day for FREE coming. I was a little off on my prediction yesterday, but looks like we will hit $1 today. I am guessing we open at .80. Love this ticker.
Nice to see FREE back in play again - this one has been easy money for years now. Should be another gap and run tomorrow if history repeats itself, as it always does. I figure we hit $1 tomorrow.
I think we will open around .12 tomorrow, or get there by 10:00, and roll on for another nice day.
I too am looking to time the inevitable bounce, but I don't think it will be tomorrow. I figure the shorts have mostly taken profits - the ticker is just dying a slow death now. I am guessing the bounce will come at around $.25, all the way back to about $1, and then it will crash to subpenny and be done with. Notice how FREE is also getting killed - a similar ticker to NEWL. I will be watching that POS for a bounce also.
I have not read the links - I will take a look. However, before reading the info, I am skeptical. As of the EOD, I am guessing NEWL will be trading under $1 again and will also be far under the required $50M market cap; why would the Nasdaq allow them to uplist after the hearing while they are in such a state? Seems to me NEWL is F'd unless the PPS recovers on the Greys, which seems unlikely unless we get some damn positive PR.
The greys are a death sentence. I have never seen a de-listed ticker that makes it to the Greys recover. This ticker is dead - other than the dead cat bounce play we will get when it finally hits bottom; which I would guess will be around .1 - .25. The damn company couldn't even be bothered to issue a press release after getting halted and listing on the Greys; management had to know that meant the shares would get destroyed today - and I expect more of the same tomorrow. Can't trust the Greeks.
I guess we will see in 9 minutes - seems to me they voluntarily de-listed and will open on the Greys.
I think you are wrong - I think we open today on the Greys; guess we will see in 15 minutes
That is just the last trades on the PM before the halt - all new ball game this morning on the Greys. Will open based on the highest bid/ask match - anyone's guess really. I suppose $5.80 is probably the high-mark, $4.20 a reasonable goal, and $2+ the worst I expect to see.
Agreed - I think we will be opening up blind on the Greys - that is how they work. Going to be huge volatility.
OTC, Other OTC or Grey Market
"OTC", "Other OTC" or "Grey Market" is a security that is not currently traded on the OTCQX, OTCQB or OTC Pink marketplaces. Broker-dealers are not willing or able to publicly quote OTC securities because of a lack of investor interest, company information availability or regulatory compliance.
It is showing $4.2 - but I would not count that for anything.
Funny - I was just looking at that - I held PLUG, FCEL, and BLDP overnight so I will be cashing out nice this morning if it holds. I will watch them all day and may trade them more - love these fuel cell rallies
I don't know why we are having a different experience with TD, but I am able to make bids/offers under the symbol NEWL, when yesterday the system reported it as "halted". I am trading out of TD in Canada; not sure if that explains the difference.
NEWL will be wild this morning on the GREYs. Be careful with it, but if you can time the bounce, should be a lot of money to be made. Very high risk trade so be careful.
I am with TD - bid/asks are working fine for me with just "NEWL"
NEWL is trading on the greys today - http://www.otcmarkets.com/stock/NEWL/news - yesterday the OTC listed as halted, and the "halted" status has been pulled and the "Grey" status added. Also, my broker is allowing me to make bids - yesterday it would not allow bids to be made and noted the ticker was halted.
I don't know how the hell we ended up on the Greys, or why the company/Nasdaq has said nothing. This is all very strange. I have traded the Greys a lot in the past with post-halt P&D tickers. Don't know what to expect from NEWL on the Greys - other than record volume (for the Greys).
I am going to trade the ticker all day and try to make some money - should be fun; all a trader needs is volatility and volume, and we will have a ton of that today with NEWL.
Don't be so sure - the shorts were getting killed PM before the halt, and now many have to cover since almost no brokers allow o/s short positions to be held on the OTC. Besides, the market cap of the company was already pathetically low, hence the rally into the halt.
Are you short or hoping to buy a crash dip? You have been all over this board since the halt as though it is your full time job.
Thanks. Well, this is interesting. Looks like they voluntarily de-listed rather than go to the hearing - probably tired of the T12's. Tough call how this will open - will definitely be a lot of opportunity to flip it over the next week; should be the top traded ticker on the OTC.
I hope they issue a PR before open and tell their side of the story - we don't even know what additional information the Nasdaq was asking for, and why did they let it trade up 30% PM just to halt it; negligent bastards - the Nasdaq is as much of a joke as the damn OTC.
Do we really know if it will trade tomorrow on the OTC? OTC just seems to say it is halted:
http://www.otcmarkets.com/stock/NEWL/quote
You are just guessing - we have no idea when the halt will end. The whole thing is ridiculous. Why on earth did the bastards lift the halt only to put one back on 2 weeks later. What possibly could have changed in 2 weeks - it appears they just did it b/c of the heavy trading and wild price swings, but the T12 is not meant to be used in that manner. I hope the company issues a harsh PR against the Nasdaq - the Nasdaq should be held accountable by someone for this Mickey Mouse BS - they obviously dropped the ball. This is more pathetic than the OTC. In theory, they must really be requesting some additional information that presumably relates to a matter that arose since the last halt, in which case the company should be able to respond quickly - they should be experts in dealing with T12 requests by now, and this one can't relate to much of anything given the small time period.
I agree with your speculation that the hearing will occur before the halt is lifted, but we are just guessing. It seems NEWL will have a hard time meeting the $50M market cap requirement, so it will be headed to the OTC at some point. I would think that it will first trade on the Nasdaq for a bit again- the delisting process takes time. Hopefully the company puts out some BS PR trying to fight for the $50M market cap target - they obviously want to stay on the Nasdaq with all the damn R/Ss.
Agreed.
This is a T12 halt - not caused by volume as some jokers have posted.
Nasdaq just wants a response from the company b/c it became a top traded ticker with a ton of attention. They came out of the last T12 halt quickly, and will again. This one should be quicker as it doesn't even relate to a press release. We will be trading again in 2 weeks. The opening price will depend on what the company has to say about the halt - they will either reassure or scare the shareholders with how they respond.