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Anyone know if Pat Chance visited the site yet? Is it under snow?
You work near Oakville?
$220k seems like a small number for the net worth of a corporate pension plan.
My guess is the investors are slow to commit large amounts of capital in return for Sarissa shares with the imminent spin of the major asset into a new entity as a taxable dividend.
There's a balance of risk factored gain against the offsetting loss. I know your opinion, but I consider long term risk factored gain so the RS argument doesn't worry me much. Contrary to some other opinions, I consider the shell as an offsetting loss when I do my math.
I'm not concerned about the setbacks on resource classification. They are reasonable and well communicated... They can all be overcome with a couple more holes drilled. I think the effort is on the right track -- if not more so than in the past then at least we know more about the plan and the progress than we did.
I understand why we need to spin soon and why it is required to do the right thing for those committing the major financing to move forward.
I hear the hints that there are some low probability speculative "jackpot" opportunities in the wings that take us to PEA fast.
Dan has been in attack mode since the beginning. Steps still seem logical toward building Sarissa into an entity that could compete with Taseko or Niocorp.
Look at note (c) in the same section (Section 11). $280k+ of the $300k management fee paid to the president went back into the company in 2012.
In note (d) you can see that the "general contractor" (GM?) also loaned $240k back into the company.
The bulk of the management fee appears to have been reinvested or deferred as a loan.
Get your point but... The historical data is holding up very well under scrutiny. Real progress is being made in terms of verification. It goes a bit far to say that the prior 43-101 was hype. The latest evidence is bearing out the fact that any mistrust of the historical data was too cautious.
The conversation here rarely focuses on how much risk has come out of the project recently. Risk has come out of the books, and steps were taken to remove risk from the resource.
I think we will see data on the resource verification soon and that will be important real progress. Not hype.
I think that these really are "steps toward building a mine" and I'm enjoying the skin I have in the game. I've never regretted this investment.
Have you made back the losses you took when you sold the shares from 2009? Must have taken a pretty big hit.
Post 143799 IR said the drill pads were built on site. That was 7 October. Easy to say 'don't believe the boards'. But it's also easy to say 'buy the rumor'. At 0.02 you missed a 80% run. You can't argue that.
The trenching in the SE zone produced a couple samples with over 1% Nb2O5. Avg along the trench was 0.35% but 10 samples were better that 0.5%. These are grades just below the surface.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=apFDJi7WIz4I
Compares well with the 0.44 to 0.51% iag average grades at depth.
http://www.iamgold.com/english/operations/operating-mines/niobec-niobium-mine/geology-mineralization/default.aspx
Ass donut? Does Niobium relieve hemorrhoids?
A couple of potential short term events to look forward to this week:
1. Completed drilling of the latest two twinned holes.
2. A site visit by representatives from RPA.
According to IR, both could happen before the end of the week. Would show real progress made toward upgrading the resource classification.
It sounded like there was progress toward measurement of the historical cores as well.
Agreed that the goal is to make Niostar a strong, viable business entity that is attractive to higher tier investors. So how do you think they are planning to redistribute the capital structure of the companies? I'm certain the Nemegosenda asset follows Niostar. If you were making the calls, how would you carve up the balance sheet?
I think it will be faster. I remember from either the call or one of the IR emails Dan said they were finished auditing through 2011.
What is your source for that statement? Why would they need to audit that far back? Pretty sure US SEC only requires three years back for an IPO.
As this thing goes forward that's the kind of news I expect. Exciting.
Metallurgy from Houston. SE zone drilling, deeper drilling.
People must realize the impact it can have on that bottom line number.
And that was assuming a 65% recovery efficiency! Similar to Aley.
Really looking forward to the numbers coming back from Houston to see if that multiplier can get bumped up a bit.
Here is the math with web's numbers in seawolf's model. I like this discussion.
20Mt @ .45 + 170Mt @ .35 = 68.9 million kg nb2o5
Using seawolf's WAG exactly as explained = $13.5 billion niobium
Using seawolf's WAG 60% for OPEX: $8.08 billion
That's $539 million p.a.
NPV @ 10% discount = $4.097 billion I think if I used Excel's npv function correctly
Allow 500M CAPEX:
Value = $3.597 Billion
Discuss...
Spot on!
Assays Lead Into Enormous Niobium Stockpiles?
I've heard speculation... If it pans out... Will be very very good. Shall see.
The recent addition to management has resulted in improved transparency and shareholder communications. The new CEO, Dan Byrnes, is planning to uplist to a higher exchange as soon as possible. He has called uplisting a short term goal. Good things coming.
There are reasons for the accumulation. Valuable mineral asset and management stepping up efforts to get to production.
Listen to the conference call from Monday:
http://sarissaresources.com/investors/
Will Dan remain on the management team at Sarissa when NioStar spins out? Guess I assumed he would become CEO of the new company with Scott remaining at Sarissa.
That made me laugh! Thanks for that.
Not entirely. I see exploration expenses ramping up in Q4 last year before the drilling. This could be funding for Houston. My point is that we might not be the only ones investing in the project.
Based on comparison to the history of the Alkane Resources DZP development there may be another way to look at it. I got the feeling that the NSW demonstration plant was set up in PARTNERSHIP with ANTSO more than with ANTSO acting as a vendor. That is, ANTSO had an interest in developing customized processes for Alkane because then they were the obvious choice to implement them at a share of the profits from the project. Maybe they retain rights to the processes and could make profit by licensing if they didn't end up doing it.
In any case, it could be that it is more important for Sarissa Resources at this stage to have a PARTNER in the demonstration plant development than it is for them to command financing to do it themselves. IMO, the news of the unnamed lab in Houston makes it more likely that this sort of partnership exists. In this way Sarissa develops the required processes without running out of money, and then pays it off by supplying work inside the established team.
We shall see. Those numbers were through 12/31/13 and the mobilization for the drilling started 1/15/14.
Last quarters management fees were just over $5k but exploration expenditures were $138k.
Good point. Are you certain that money raised using flow through financing can't be spent to pay off debt incurred during valid exploration activities?
Not sure who is loaning them money but I have some strong guesses.
Maybe the PP funds weren't used for drilling. They could have been used to pay interest. Again, I'm speculating. But it answers your finance questions.
Well they drilled a 300 meter deep hole at a 45 degree angle across zones with good ore according to historical data.
According to recent posts IR said they did 20 times the normal amount of assay work on cores from zones they knew were good. This makes me wonder why.
In the last PR they revealed the start of a demonstration plant being built by an unnamed lab in Texas.
In my mind this sounds similar to the beginning of the work that Alkane did with ANTSO in New South Wales using DZP ore.
When ANTSO was still unnamed I believe (not sure) that Alkane drilled a deep hole and ANTSO used the cores to verify that the ore was uniform enough at depth that the flow sheet efficiencies could be maintained throughout the orebody.
It's speculation, but you asked if I could see the current efforts leading toward value for investors. Yes, I can.
I have the other half of your conversation on ignore and it looks pretty funny one sided.
The results from the recent metallurgy will be interesting in comparison to the SGS study that identified 79-85% liberation of the Niobium rich pyrochlore in the ore for finer than 45um grind.
The block model in the Archibald report estimates 65MT in the deposit with a 0.43% grade. At 79% liberation with 60.62% niobium oxide in the pyrochlore, that's conservatively 133,000 tons of liberated niobium pentoxide or 120 million kilograms.
What's the price per kilogram these days? I can't hold a thought.
LOL!!! 133 days since... What was it? Somebody remind me.
How many days was it again?
You can find good illustrations of the drilling in the Hawke and SE zones at the following links:
http://www.corebox.net/properties/nemegosenda/hawke-zone
http://www.corebox.net/properties/nemegosenda/se-zone
It shows the historical and recent holes. There's a slide bar that lets you set a threshold on the % niobium oxide. Browser has to support Flash.
That would explain a lot.
But they didn't give us a proxy when they authorized themselves to reduce our purchased share of the company by 10x. How do you square that circle?
If the financing is going to be done by issuing ten times the current equity then that dilution will compound any depreciation caused by future misses.
In terms of the Vegas analogy the house has announced that they reserve the right to pay off bets at a dime for every dollar down on the table.
Have I misunderstood this? If so, someone please correct me.
Never thought of it that way because 3 months seemed like not enough time to put anything physical together. They've definitely had time now though.
I will send that email unless I can find another source. Will Merle respond to that sort of request in your experience?
Thanks! His slides refer to SX Technology as a mature industry. Is it still current practice? Do you think if CRIMM ever comes out with a flowsheet it will include SX-EV for purification?
Depends on market?
Not sure how it squares with "This program would likely have been more difficult to accomplish in North America, as the testing facilities would initially have had to be assembled to complete it."