I had some BMBL coming in to this report and sold it on the pop up near 12. Some of that 0.19 came from a change in FV gain (approx 16MM in the Q, plus they didn't have any stock comp charges, so the GAAP numbers looked much better than usual.). Also, beware of the lurking non-consolidated interest which can convert into 42mm ordinary shares that aren't in the GAAP diluted share count. It was a decent quarter as their sales growth appears to be returning.

If you like BMBL, what about FVRR? They look cheaper to me, also hated and in the midst of a turnaround as they transition their revenues into more profitable "complex" services that involve use of AI. Reported this morning and beat estimates handily because of rising pretax margins. They are judged using non-GAAP. Like BMBL, they give out way too many stock options and so share count keeps rising....but they did authorize a $100MM share repurchase, their first share repurchase program ever.

HHS. I thought it was an ok quarter. Definitely signs of an inflexion happening. Smallest y/y decline in revenue in the past 5 quarters; now finally profitable, and they comfortably beat the one estimate I saw out there for a loss of 0.06 in the quarter. I had them earning 0.14/sh adjusted, and taxed at 20%. The stock is dirt cheap....its Ev/EBITDA ratio is 2.2x. Cost savings of 6MM coming in the remainder of the year, plus some signals on the call of revenue growth resuming in Q3 or Q4. If they can do this, they should earn well north of 1.00/sh. I hope it does sell off a bit.

INDV (17.45 -1.37) lays an egg for its Q1 report. They missed eps expectations by 0.04, coming at an adj fd eps of 0.37. The year ago quarter was a tough comp in that they had their best margins of the year along with a lower tax rate. They cited several factors for the shortfall: 1) Medicaid disenrollment of approx 20MM patients (70% of their patient population is on Medicaid). This had already been going on prior to this quarter, but it accelerated unexpectedly; 2) A Cyber attack on a payment provider that cost them about 5-7MM from destocking impacts. They reiterated guidance for rev and operating profits for the year, and will be continuing to buy back stock. The guidance assumes that the quarter's numbers were an aberration, and that by Q3 they will have anniversaried the Medicaid disenrollment issue. They also hope to have a primary listing on the US by this summer, so no more 6K filings.

I took down my expectations for the year, but still think there is some decent upside here. It may languish in the 17s or even the 16s for a while, but I still think it could be hitting 52 week highs by year end IF they can get back on track in the 2H. My best guess for FD eps is 1.82 - 1.96, which is a healthy rise over last year's 1.57. FV is still likely in the high 20s, IMO so I'm not selling here.

Looking over the Q2 FOR report, in the CC they called out the unusually high GM in the Q:

"Our gross profit margin for the quarter was 24.9% compared to 18.5% for the same quarter last year. Gross margin this quarter was positively impacted by non-recurring revenue items with unusually high margins, including selling excess sewer capacity and a land contract assignment fee. Excluding the effects of these items in the prior-year impairment charges and unusually high-margin track sales, our second quarter gross profit margin would have been approximately 22.5% compared to approximately 23% for the prior-year quarter."

(Q1 also had a slight benefit too). The entirety of the earnings "beat" came from this non-recurring element in the GM.

They also have some difficult y/y comps coming up, and the forward estimates show flat to slightly negative eps growth going forward:
https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/FOR/earnings/estimates?period=quarterly

I think that's why the stock sold off fairly hard on what appeared to be a decent beat. They would have shown a slight drop in y/y eps otherwise.

A couple that I like and have been a recent buyer of:

1. Indivior (INDV 19.50). A specialty pharma company that has three major drugs targeting substance use disorders. Biggest seller is Sublocade which targets opioid addiction. They are projected to earn approx 2.00/sh in FY24, that's up from an adj 1.57 in FY23. (both are taxed at approx 20%). The company has been buying back shares and has set aside cash to pay for class action lawsuits that were recently settled. I think the worst of their litigation problems are behind them. The stock has traded at 15x TTM adj eps in the past. I like its potential over the next 3-6 mos.

2. Audiocodes (AUDC 10.65). This is an Israeli company that provides advanced communications software, products, and productivity solutions for the digital workplace worldwide. The company offers solutions, products, and services for unified communications, contact centers, hosted business services, Voice.AI, and service provider businesses. Its definitely a beneficiary of the AI boom/focus, and is transitioning into a higher margin software/services company. FY23 earnings were down y/y, although a strong turnaround is being signaled by the company and its Q4 results. If they can execute and hit their LT forecasts, the company's prospects could rerate into a higher forward multiple to match its adj operating margin growth/strength that could power strong eps growth. Mgmt guiding to adj eps of 1.00 - 1.15; if they can get a 15x forward multiple the stock could see upwards of 15-16/sh later this year. Of course, the risk of an expansion in the Mideast conflict will likely put some caution into buying, but I think the risks of severe business interruption are probably unlikely.

Hweb, I added to HHS today. It looks like the estimates for FY24 have dropped to 0.50-0.51 vs the previous estimate of 0.71, so that might be behind the drop since earnings. Looks oversold on a technical basis and is approaching some possible support at its 200 DMA around 6.65. Looks like the first half of this year will be a little underwhelming for GAAP eps, but they are setting up nicely for some big quarterly numbers in Q3 and Q4. Could be a nice turnaround story:

"there's palpable sales momentum evident here. And we all inside the company are aware of it. It's an exciting time. But you do have a sales cycle to work through and an onboarding process to work through when you land new business. So it does take a little time, but it's all about pipeline and conversion. And we're very happy with our progress there. But we also are focused on being more profitable, and that's the $16 million approximate cost savings we've identified." -from Q4 2023 CC transcript

If the company is being judged on its GAAP numbers, they clearly won't be great in Q1 and Q2. But, looking at EV / EBITDA is pretty interesting. I note their TTM Adj. EBITDA for FY23 at 16.5MM, so with the stock at 6.90/sh, that means its trading at 2x Ev /EBITDA ratio which is dirt cheap. And, they are expecting higher adj profits in FY24 from 6MM in projected cost savings. Just have to grind through the next 4-6 mos before having the chance to show some better numbers. Good one to quietly accumulate.

IMXI. Was a buyer of the selloff this am. Had a great Q4, beating expectations but the Q1 guide was a little light; FY eps guide was in-line and showing 13% growth, albeit with a lower share count from a large buyback of shares that should continue going forward. IMXI handles a lot of money transfers from US to latin america and back. Growth slowed a little bit due to economic conditions, but this company has a nice transaction network stranglehold and is gaining market share. I think its fair value is closer to 12-13x forward eps, or 27-28/share. Steady grower, decent share buyback in place, I think it might be under pressure for a bit but should rebound within 3-6 mos as a stronger 2nd half appears not priced in.

RMAX. I've put it on my watch list. I would expect that sales and net income (adj) will be down in FY24, based upon the sector (real estate brokerage), so I think this continues to slide lower without prospects of higher sales and eps until early FY25 at best. I would be looking to start nibbling if it gets into the high 6s, with the caveat that it is always tough to time a bottom purely based upon valuation. Good luck!

Nelson, re HRTG: Good memory, the Hyer purchase was announced then:

"On December 14, 2023, the Company entered into a securities purchase agreement (“Purchase Agreement”) pursuant to which (i) Raymond T. Hyer, a current holder of approximately 13.5% shares of our Common Stock, agreed to purchase directly from us, in a concurrent private placement, 148,148 shares of Common Stock at the Public Offering Price and (ii) Ernie Garateix, a director of the Company and the Company’s Chief Executive Officer and Paul L. Whiting, a director of the Company, agreed to purchase directly from us, in a concurrent private placement, an aggregate of 27,247 and 40,871, respectively, shares of our Common Stock at $7.34, the closing price of the Company’s Common Stock on December 14, 2023 (the “Private Placement”)."

The other two filed their Form 4 a day or two after this 8K was filed. What's interesting is that these insiders actually paid a higher price (7.34) than what the secondary offering was placed at (6.75). The stock traded well below those prices, finally putting in a bottom in the 5.50s.

UVE's stock is reacting really well to their earnings cc. (The quarterly results weren't all that great compared to y/y figures, but I guess its on to FY24!) From the Q4 transcript:

"We closed out both the fourth quarter and full year with double-digit adjusted returns on common equity. And I believe that even stronger results are firmly in our future. 2023 was a transformative year for us and our significant efforts position us for meaningful success in the new legislative environment.

We've added a buffer to our loss picks and bolstered reserves for years that predate the elimination of one-way attorney fees and assignment of benefits to what I view as the most conservative level in our history. Importantly, we did this because we wanted to place the past in the rearview mirror and shift our focus to the future. "

On SA, the one UVE analyst they track has projected UVE to earn 2.30 in FY24, so if that's anywhere close to accurate (the adjusted fd eps for FY23 was 1.95), then the stock is trading at 8.7x forward earnings. Seems fair to me. If we apply a similar multiple to HRTG, that would put the stock price at $11.47/sh. I really like the hold of HRTG into its next earnings.....

HRTG Thanks Nelson. I'm sure you saw that big insider buy that was filed this week?

https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1598665/000167204824000001/xslF345X03/primary_doc.xml

Just a little late on reporting the actual trade, but I'm glad he finally got around to filing it. Stock has since traded well below that purchase price so I wonder if he has been buying but just not filing? He probably should get a slap on the wrist from the SEC for being so late. It should have been reported a few days after the fact.

CRNT on its Q4 CC just guided for lower interest exp (~8MM) and a slightly lower tax rate in FY24 vs FY23. Based on those newer numbers, I'd now put adj non-gaap fd eps at 0.30-0.31/sh in FY24. That's inline with the estimate and a slight beat.

CRNT pretax margins (adj) came in a little lower sequentially, but I think that was because of the rev mix. Most of the growth was in India, which carries lower margins. The non-GAAP tax rate was also high (I calculated it at ~27%). The company would have reported closer to 0.05 eps in Q4 if it had been 20-21%.

The guide appears to be for eps (non-gaap) of around 0.28 - 0.29. Maybe just a bit shy of the aggressive analyst est? Still, that's a 40% increase in eps at the low end. What is the appropriate forward multiple here? I still think this will see the low 3s, at minimum and could reach the low 4s with a PE multiple expansion up to 15x, which is certainly reasonable given the growth forecast.

The stock does have a history of selling off a bit after earnings, but I still think its too cheap. I'm holding.

Nelson, re PERI. I was in it and was disappointed with the guide for FY24 and the company's capital allocation plan (i.e. NO share buybacks). I sold it at 26, so was wrong about that one and took a loss.

Top line growth is good for FY24, but it should be because they just bought Hivestack. This is another deal where it looks like pretax margins will take a hit in the short run, so eps growth which had been 35%+ drops down to 7 - 8%. PERI also has a low tax rate (11-12%). This sector (internet advertising) is so competitive. PERI had been doing a great job of showing strong rev and eps growth while many of their competitors were struggling. They still have decent adjusted margins and a very good balance sheet, so its not all bad. I just prefer to see strong eps growth and I don't think PERI will show that this upcoming FY. My FV is 26, so I'd start nibbling around 20.60 or below.

Nelson, re AVNW. I wasn't a fan of the NEC acquisition, because of the short term hits to earnings growth that will likely result. GMs will be lower, they have fairly large incremental SGA and R&D costs to make in the next 2 quarters AND they issued stock and debt, so even more of a hit to eps. I will need to see some signs of recovery in adj pretax margins before I get comfortable buying in. I think forward eps numbers for FY24 will get lowered; I think they might be able to do fd eps of 2.71/sh (I'm factoring in the 19MM in incremental costs and a 2% tax rate with a slight rise in FDS). At 12x, that puts FV at 32.60; I'd get interested again around 26. FY25 is still too far away for me to begin factoring in to valuation...stocks often trade based upon what's expected 3-6 mos out, but when I look at that time period for AVNW, I see difficult comps which don't get me excited.

R59, I think COLL is probably fairly valued at current prices. I sold the last of my shares when it hit 33. I wasn't impressed with the company's guide for revenues in FY24; it only appears to be 3-4% growth over 2023 with EBITDA growing at ~7%. Sskillz raises a good point about potential new competition and possible generic challengers; I think its what specialty pharma companies and their investors fear most.

VIRC. They are coming into a seasonally weak quarter where they typically post a loss. And on a technical basis, the stock broke down below its 50DMA, so perhaps some stop loss orders got hit. There is a gap in the chart back to last earnings release which would if closed, would be low 7s. I think this is decline is overdone, IMO. Initiated a small position here in the low 9s

Still like CRNT and invested in it now. Between their last acquisition and a big order kicking in, their 2H in FY24 should be really strong. They might have some margin compression in this quarter, but I am nibbling in the 2.30s and below. I can see it trading into the low 3s soon. Probably drafting a little off that big AVNW move today.

HRTG is looking pretty cheap again in the 5.60s. Nelson, why do you think its been dropping lately?

I don't get the AVNW pop either. I guess they did beat the consensus eps estimates, but I think that was largely because the acquisition was delayed and so hardly hurt the Q at all. In the presentation, the company stated that they expect GM in the 2H to be 34-37% of revs (they just reported a very strong 38.7% GM in Q2). So that's not great. Plus, they are expecting incremental R&D and SGA costs of ~19MM (a range of 16-22MM) in the 2H as they invest in their acquisition and products. I'm taking that from the FY24 guidance slide in the presentation.

It doesn't add up to a great 2H for the company in terms of earnings comps (which are basically untaxed anyway because they have a lot of NOLs). Forward EV / Ebitda ratio looks to be about 8.6x at 37....I'd say its probably fairly valued to slightly overvalued given the lack of clear catalysts over the next two quarters.

GTLS. Yes, I was buying as it dropped on Friday. In hindsight, I was fortunate to get some in the 110.25 - 110.75 range. Probably more fortunate that management decided to come out to defend the stock with that PR on Friday after the bell.

A good source of info on the company is from this poster on Seeking Alpha:
https://seekingalpha.com/article/4665607-chart-industries-expect-earnings-to-skyrocket

He's followed the company a long time......

Clearly, the company is in the "prove it" doghouse after they didn't meet expectations with their Q3 results.

I added some more HALO today around 34/sh. I guess some investors didn't like the presentation given by the company today. Lots of info in there, so its worth a listen to those who are interested in this seemingly cheap biotech company:

https://ir.halozyme.com/events-and-presentations/events/event-details/2024/Halozyme-Financial-Update-Call/default.aspx

They provided an update on Q4 (revenue a little lower than expected, but EPS came in at the high end of the range.)
From the company filed 8K
Unaudited Preliminary Estimates of Results for the Twelve Months Ended December 31, 2023
The Company estimates 2023 Revenue will be in the range of $827 million to $832 million.
The Company estimates 2023 royalties will be in the range of $445 million to $450 million.
The Company estimates 2023 Net Income will be in the range of $292 million to $297 million, 2023 EBITDA will be in the range of $435 million to $440 million and 2023 Adjusted EBITDA will be in the range of $425 million to $430 million.
The Company estimates 2023 GAAP Diluted EPS will be in the range of $2.18 to $2.21 and 2023 Non-GAAP Diluted EPS will be in the range of $2.77 to $2.80.

First guide for FY24 (see slide 24 for more details):
https://s28.q4cdn.com/284259014/files/doc_events/2024/01/HalozymeFinancialUpdateJanuary2024-FINAL.pdf

FY24 Rev: 915 - 985
FY24 adj EPS: 3.55 - 3.90 (MP: 3.73)

Just a tad below consensus on FY24 earnings, and well below on revs. During the call, the company explained how and why its margins on EBITDA should be strong and likely to continue increasing over the next 4 years. A chunk of those EBITDA adjustments are non-cash and get backed out of adjusted Pretax....hence the stronger margins and better eps than expected at that revenue level. I thought they did a good job addressing the concerns about patent cliffs and their ability to maintain margins in later years of the patents. If 2024 is indeed going to be a tough year for the economy, I'd think steady, stable growth in healthcare would be more desirable, but what do I know?

Nelson, good post on CRNT. For an Israeli company in the high tech sector, I usually use a pro-forma 20-25% tax rate. But I agree with your thinking on FY24

Would much rather see CRNT provide conservative guidance and then beat and raise later. The guidance for FY24 is still very solid at the midpoint (~14%). They spoke of their ability to increase margins and achieving operating margins at better than 10%. That excludes interest expense, and they might have a little bit of a headwind there over the first half of 2024 in adjusted pretax (but I'd guess they still show y/y growth.) They are setting up for a very nice 2H of 2024 given the full integration of the recent acquisition (Siklu), and the beginning of the massive $150MM contract. I think the 0.30 estimate is a bit aggressive for FY24, but the odds of achieving that have improved with the announcement of the recent contract.

CRNT. It's hard as an investor when you are faced with a stock that appears undervalued fundamentally, but is clearly overbought on a technical basis in the short term. How much of a pullback will come? And how high can the stock go before correcting? With CRNT, if the market decides to rerate its forward valuation, trading north of 4.00 over the next 3-6 mos isn't out of the question. Put a 15x multiple on that 0.30 estimate for next year (which is an old estimate before the news of the big contract came out) and you can see why some investors are scrambling to buy more even with it very overbought.

CRNT. Announced a huge new contract win this AM. 150MM over an 8 quarter period beginning in Q2 2024. That would add approx 15-17% additional revenue per quarter (based on most recent quarter) once it starts to kick in. Before any other new or existing business.

https://seekingalpha.com/pr/19588250-ceragon-signs-agreement-global-integrator-valued-approximately-150-million-to-modernize-tier

Stock is still cheap on a forward eps basis. Perhaps this also expands the potential forward multiple as well?

HRTG. Nelson, do you estimate FV for these insurers at a percentage above book value? Forward PE? or some combo of both? Thanks.

The book value for HRTG was at 5.65/sh prior to the secondary offering of stock, in which they issued at least 3.7MM shares (with a max possible of 4.26MM new shares). Shares outstanding as of Q3 prior to the offering were around 26.7MM. Are those director placements in addition to the amounts raised via the primary offering?

Q3 had roughly 40MM in catastrophic event expenses, which actually was flat y/y....so they've had two straight difficult years. I guess they are due for some mean reversion, plus they are clearly raising premiums and diversifying across other states besides FL

I thought this article on averaging down on stocks was interesting and well written:
https://microcapclub.com/when-should-you-average-down/

YRD (last trade: 2.77) Can I interest anyone in a Chinese fintech that is perhaps one of the cheapest stocks trading on the market that isn't a pink sheeter?
https://ir.yirendai.com/news-releases/news-release-details/yiren-digital-reports-third-quarter-2023-financial-results

YRD YTD EPS: 2.31 (on track to earning 3.15+) <1x PE
Book value (mostly cash): 11.57/ADS
Diversified biz: Loans/Insurance/E-Commerce
Pretax margins: 54%
Cash flow from operations: 240MM USD (YTD thru 9 mos)

It has run up a bit from a week ago, when it was trading in the low 2s. Very low float here as the CEO and hedge fund partner hold about 80% of the stock through the founder's company (CreditEase). And there are accounting concerns from a couple of years ago when they failed to file their annual report on time because their auditor then would not sign off on the related party deal that effectively merged CreditEase into YRD.

Stock should at least be 2x higher, and even at that higher price level it trades at <50% of the valuations afforded other Chinese fintechs like FINV or QFIN. Another one to watch is XYF that is similar to YRD in valuation yet has been aggressively repurchasing its own shares and paid a special dividend this year.

The extreme low valuations have been there for years, but its extremely compressed at the moment. The company should go private or seek a buyout from a larger competitor to maximize shareholder value. The market for stocks like this (small cap Chinese) is completely broken.

SURG. Came across this post on twitter:

Surgpays relies on Affordable Connectivity Program (ACP) subsidies for internet access. Check their 10Q for details. ACP offers up to $100 tablet reimbursement and a $30 monthly broadband subsidy. CEO has a history of telephone bill fraud. https://t.co/VMSuBxcMr3

— Nand (@BuschBu) November 15, 2023

COLL (21.56). In with another decent quarter (Adj EPS of 1.34, beating estimates for eps by 0.10.) Bought back $50MM shares in the quarter, and just initiated another $25MM repurchase authorization. Large short interest here but a chunk of them are likely held by the convertible debt owners who often hedge their potential converts by shorting the stock. The stock is trading at ~4x forward FY23 earnings. Revenues only grew by 8% y/y in the quarter, but they had a tough comp from the year ago period. YTD, revenues are expected to grow by 22%, with adj EBITDA growing faster than that. Ev / EBITDA is 3.7x. This stock is cheap, but it has been that way all year. I don't know why there aren't more buyers here unless there are concerns about the growth of its pain drugs next year. Management touted its new negotiated prices and additional patients from Medicare:

Successfully completed contract renegotiations with payors that represent 30% of Xtampza ER total prescriptions while maintaining access in 57% of the renegotiated opportunity. As a result, Collegium expects gross-to-net improvement in 2024 to be a catalyst for revenue growth.
Renegotiated a major Medicare Part D contract for Belbuca, maintaining its access position and materially reducing the rebate, and won a new Medicare Part D plan for Belbuca representing approximately one million covered lives.

I would think if there are recession concerns for FY24, drug stocks like COLL would look more attractive to investors. So far, it hasn't played out that way.....

https://seekingalpha.com/pr/19527141-collegium-reports-third-quarter-2023-financial-results

Hey Nelson, the CRNT presentation of its income statement lists R&D as part of its Operating expenses, so I'd have to assume that any discussion by them regarding OpEx includes those expenses. Sales and marketing has been increasing as a %of revenue, but other areas have been reduced so the overall pretax margins have been increasing nicely.

I don't know what that analyst meant by saying opex in the Q4 would be increasing dramatically y/y. In Q4 2022, they had 22.9MM in opex, so an amount just over 23MM is not a large increase in my book. I dropped pretax margins down to 7%, and used a higher tax rate of 21% to get around 0.05/sh in fd eps for Q4. The acquisition probably won't close until close to the end of the quarter, so no meaningful dilution either way. That 0.05 is a bit below the current non-GAAP estimate of 0.06 for Q4, so perhaps a little bit of shoot first selling by investors disappointed that the numbers weren't better.

I like the sounds of their new acq. That company has higher GMs, and should be accretive to earnings by Q3 2024. That adds about 25-29MM in Rev, on top of organic growth of 8-9%. Wouldn't surprise me if they can earn 0.23+ in FY24. But that is also way lower than the 0.30 estimate that I see on SA and Merrill for next year. I have to assume that is non-GAAP. The Yahoo est must be GAAP. I've been a buyer in the 1.75 area and would be more aggressive in the 1.60s

I also see an estimate out there for CRNT's FY24 eps at 0.30. Looks way too high.

Thanks. I'm looking at both AVNW and CRNT. I don't like AVNW's acquisition and its near term impacts on eps. CRNT is looking a little better based on that forecast for organic growth in FY24, possibly higher margins and accretion from its own acq

Here's the post:
https://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=172607501

I guess it was more about a slowdown/pause in the order pattern from Dish.

HALO. This is a biotech company that I've been following/own and like its potential. Just announced another partnership with its Enhanze drug delivery technology:
https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/halozyme-and-acumen-pharmaceuticals-enter-global-collaboration-and-non-exclusive-license-agreement-for-the-enhanze-technology-in-alzheimers-disease-301978022.html

They also report after the bell today. HALO has a tough Q3 y/y comp, but the expectation for future growth appears pretty solid. If accurate, the stock looks undervalued. It's been sold off like a lot of biotech has been this year, but they are solidly non-GAAP profitable and generate decent cash from operations.

CRNT. Didn't you have some concern over the loss of a significant customer?

There was a question in the CPS call about these retroactive price settlements. It seems that the company recorded them as revenue in Q3 even though it was clearly from prior quarters. It would appear that they treated this as pure profit, so the GMs on those settlements was 100% and this inflated GM and EBITDA in the Q3. That's why I think using the full 9 month period is a little more realistic in terms of what they might report in Q4 and going forward.

YTD, the pretax loss (adjusted for one times) was around (43MM). To be fair, they are likely to be replacing some lines of business with higher margin sales in FY24. This is a tough, low margin biz. Even the best, like MGA (Magna) report GMs around 13-14%. I think CPS is probably lower than that. My guess is that a realistic GM for CPS is closer to 11%

CPS. I think there were some "retroactive price settlements" that boosted Q3 rev and margins:

"This increase includes a portion of price negotiation settlements that, were retroactive to the start of the year, and a smaller amount pulled forward into Q3 that we had originally anticipated settling and recording in Q4. Combined, these represented approximately $25 million to $30 million in sales above the normalized Q3 run rate." Q3 2023 CPS transcript

I don't know how much of that was pure profit for the company, since the GM Q3 were really high, and probably unsustainable. I think the 9 mo period provides a more realistic margin % going forward ie. a little over 10% rather than the 14%+.

Nelson, I really like the sectors that USAP is in. That company and CRS have showed up on my radar with their decent results in the Sept quarter.

Strong end markets, high backlog, growing margins. I guess they compete with CRS? USAP looks a bit overbought at the moment, but I'd be looking to add on any pullback.

That story you relate is pretty crazy and kinda typical with the microcaps I guess.

I sold some in the 121 - 122 range. Still think it could get back into the 140s, but it might very well languish in the low 100s until there is greater clarity on FY24