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I do not like it. Do not like the financing and how management has felt with just about everything recently. That said, this is acting like most small biotechs pushing the range of $400 to $600 million pre approval.
I haven’t looked but remember other agreements to keep the agreement current. You can follow all the patents and they list NWBO. All the work to date follows to commercial sales for NWBO. Without paying a royalty because NWBO is the owner. Until you find any paperwork otherwise that is the way I see it.
First his argument was UCLA owned DCVax and NWBO had to pay a license. He corrected himself. Give him a break for admitting he was wrong.
Like I said. No commercial licensing agreement. The company (NWBO) has paid them to run trials and work on the research.
And Cognate developed the manufacturing process and packaging. Are we paying them a licensing fee? No. We paid them to work the problem.
And if you are asking for paperwork, I am not going back through all the crap I read more than a decade ago. Find me the commercial licensing agreement and I will take your point of view.
Originally I thought we licensed. I have seen no license agreement upon commercial sales. Typical for any biotech and learning institution it is about 6%. NWBO is paying Kalinski 4%. But, NWBO bought the vaccine pre 2000 when it was a possible canine treatment. We pay UCLA yearly for research but I have not seen a commercial licensing agreement. And you are correct, we do not sponsor the trials but have the commercial rights. So, tomatoe, tomata. Who cares? NWBO gets the benefit.
And what does piss me off completely is we wouldn’t discuss any of this if they had open Q&A with earnings calls.
There are combo trials going on with DCVax. It is called ALT DC when made in the UCLA facility. Another wrong misconception is that UCLA licenses it to NWBO. It is the reverse. NWBO owns it and allows UCLA to test, use and work with it. NWBO pays UCLA in support of this work.
And the data from the combination trials looks pretty great to date.
Your premise is fine. It could go down that way. The 1.5 I disagree with. Once a true-up takes place they will gobble up every authorized share. 1.7 would be the number if your scenario goes down. And they will not let go without the true-up.
Just my take.
More than likely bought options or bonus shares about to expire. I do not recall them ever buying in the open market.
He also bought shares years earlier at 35 cents. Within a few months the shares traded around 15 to 20 cents. I cannot say his timing has been the best.
One board member did. JJ who just retired bought $1/2 million of C shares a few months after they were offered and voted on for authorization.
He is the only one I have seen buy shares in over a decade. I think he bought the shares at 65 cents.
Sure. But you can get a clue how it works. As the company shops the investor shorts all the way down to 40 cents and covers the short with a purchase. It’s a game. They got discounted shares.
You have it about right. That ASM was a disappointment and bad joke on us. No Q&A and they do not get concrete on any operations other than after so many years of disappointment they need to hire more consultants.
Some folks posted earlier an analogy to The Hobbit. My thoughts were Frodo and Sam should run the company and Les and Linda should return to The Shire.
As an aside a nice post by Sharpie showing how incredible this technology is. It is not the product. It is the management. Send Linda and Les back to The Shire.
Not so. Share price matters because it is the life blood of an emerging company not bringing in revenue. If shares are diluted due to mismanagement, legal or illegal nefarious outside forces it does matter. NWBO is a plaintiff and defendant in 2 law suits that have an effect of my final selling of my shares calculation.
Bad math. If you use $250 per treatment it is $250 million. At least get the math straight. Specials were about $250K.
You stated this.
“About 1000 vaccines from the artisan method a year for time being will easily bring in 1.5B revenue. Go NWBO!”
Now they are in “stealth mode”. They must be joking. It is the greatest practical joke played on investors for a decade.
costs of goods sold.
A lot there this ASM. They have created an infrastructure that may lead to great profits but as you say….. WTF (I am paraphrasing). Hard to believe some tasks are still not completed or started as they have drained value from our investment.
Still long and believe the franchise could be a paradigm change but this team is a disappointment with all the hide and seek for investors. Excuse being they are in stealth mode. They built all this infrastructure out and still not able to give a range of sales, price per vaccine or expected margins.
Right. Your comment that Linda Liau has walked away from her work with DCVax is ——?
I cannot think of a word to use without being insulting. Others can fill in the blank.
A bit wrong.
I know you want to paint the bleakest picture. NWBO owns the licenses even if through Advent, owns the equipment and owns the processes and patents.
My post didn’t argue against. Biggest management mistake was keeping Toucan and jettisoning Cognate. Could have saved a boatload. Instead authorized share count went up 14 times.
Next you will be telling us Ashkan has walked away. You really are a piece of work.
Your statement is just pure junk. The company owns the goods and all patent art. Who cares if combinations work better. The product is still sold. All iterations going forward benefit NWBO.
“And her recent adaptation works, indicates that DCVAX-L was far from a viable finished product, and a clear indication that she has processionally & academically stepped away from Northwest BioTherapeutics. “
We have seen it all! At some point it has to stop being an endless science experiment and become a profitable business. Poor business decisions have led us to this point with no accountability for the decision makers. When is the last time they have attended an investment conference?
Could not state your facts better.
If they give guidance consider it mendacious. I have to ask - WHEN have they ever met a schedule. They said last ASM they would submit to the RAs. The very end of the year they finally file with the UK.
Unfortunately management’s history compels me not to listen to this ASM.
He was correct in his last comment.
I already gave you that answer in a past post! It is about the math.
Years ago she stated we almost lost our company. Meaning she had to give up some control. Shareholders would have done very well. Even if Woodford went belly up. We would have been tethered to AZN without ten years of drama.
We may get different colors of smoke blown up our butts.
Her 1st, 2nd and 3rd priorities are bonuses, bonuses and bonuses.
No comment. It is just simple math. Either you can perform the calculation or you cannot.
Great. I do not disagree with most of it. But it doesn’t change the share count. If Woodford wanted AZN which has gone since then from a a small player to a much larger player in Oncology they could have built up the facility and manufactured the product while sharing profits 50/50. We all would have been better off. Meaning richer.
It doesn’t change my share count calculation and a mistake by management not partnering. BP could have set up a facility as part of the 50/50 deal. We took the hit because she wanted the manufacturing.
Even LP would have been much better off monetarily if she didn’t saddle us all with a manufacturing site and took a partnership. I do not think our fortunes are better off in the end with share price owning the facility. Probably by a factor of 6 times less.
But ten years later they have 1.7 Billion shares authorized. A more than 21 fold increase to what was outstanding back then. Now about 1.3 outstanding. If they give themselves the bonus they want most authorized shares will become outstanding.
If they took a 50% partner back then they probably would only have about 200 million shares outstanding. The earnings per share when commercial would be beaucoup larger for us shareholders if she had taken a partnership like Woodford was asking. She just couldn’t let go of any of her positions.
That was a big management mistake. Tough to say how much further along Direct would be. But not sitting in place like this.
You do not give a rats $$$, but people here do. That is why you read it everyday on this board. Who could be delighted with The Big Biz nonsense and not attending a proper investment conference? How many years should that continue? Right now it is about 4 years too long.
I can derive math leading to an over $500 share price with 1.7 Billion shares outstanding. It is possible if you can shoehorn into all solid tumors, Is that the rant of a short!!!?
But management is lacking.
I know what the vaccine is and what it could be worth. It doesn’t mean I agree with all the paths taken by management and their communication strategy. Especially with some very basic information they could provide that shareholders are entitled to.
I just have given up on Direct. Maybe Kalinski will incorporate more of that into their trials. I do not expect any meaningful mention during the ASM. To be honest I am more angry at the BOD for allowing this clown show to continue without any changes.
They were ordered before COVID. They have storage for 240K patients using 8 doses. So, isn’t it about time they start speaking on why they own so much storage?