And to think I was ridiculed and accused of being a short on OPBL for shedding light on the skeletons in their closet.

The weakness today is undoubtedly from reports that SRE is going to have to curtail their commodities derivitive trading as their risk profile has gone parabolic and Moody's is considering a downgrade.

Remember, I kept telling OPBL longs to watch the connection between OPBL and Jeffrey Bussan as he is the bulk of their trading volume...guess where Mr. Bussan works...

yep.... SRE.

of course...

I sincerely hope it happens again.

You were warned...

I tried to warn you guys and I was ridiculed...

The next house of cards to fall will be the Jeffrey Bussan link. If you're still foolish enough to be long OPBL, you had better do some research on Mr. Bussan and the percentage of revenue his trades make up...

~~~PASTE~~~

Posted by: stinkeye
In reply to: OracleofNY who wrote msg# 42 Date:1/27/2007 12:35:46 AM
Post #of 236


Skeptical? I understand...

Scroll down to the first post on this OPBL board and look who it's from.


Congrats to all OPBL longs!


PS - It's time to close the OPBL trade BTW...I wouldn't hold anything other than 'free' shares now. Play with the house's money - not your own. This was a nice opportunity at $1.82 or so, but now it's has vastly more downside risk than upside. OPBL's current valuation isn't even in the same universe of brokers/options firms.


Has anyone noticed that OPBL's OPEX platform was built by two contract programmer's for a shoestring budget of $800,000? I've been in touch with folks at some of the busiest energy derivative desks in NYC and none of them have even heard of OPEX until now.

NYMEX purchased their minority stake directly from insiders at less than half of where the stock is trading now. Remember, management has already guided that their 40% margins will be coming down soon.

CEO has an aggregious comp. package where he gets options at $.60 and then even more stock granted to the tune of 2% of revenue every quarter.

By the way, did you see that he just got 400,000 more shares at $.20/share?

~~PASTE~~
Issued pursuant to a Warrant Agreement, dated as of July 1, 2004, pursuant to which the Issuer agreed to issue Warrants to Pierpont based upon the trading volume of certain customers of the Issuer as set forth in the terms of the Warrant Agreement.

I've spoken with their CFO and he had ZERO clue what the value of their NOL asset was. It could be gone any quarter for all we know.

Why are the operations of a Coffee Shop wrapped up in OPBL's filings?

Why are there many of the same names that were in the scam blow-up that is XNL (Xethanol) in OPBL?

Who is their auditor? Oh, that's right, there isn't one. A financial firm with ties to a seat on the NYMEX and they don't have an auditor? Can you say, red flag?

Here's a link to some other insider's with shady pasts...

http://www.thestreet.com/_tscana/stocks/brokerages/10266218.html


The most ardent longs will hate me for this post, and I sincerely hope I'm wrong. That being said, just file this post away and check back on it in a few weeks, and remember that you had a head's up.

Marxe & Greenhouse are big holders there and just bought a huge block from a director...

M&G are quite adept at finding micro values...

For the record -

I was never and will never be SHORT OPBL...for the love of God why can't somebody point out a firm's weaknesses and rich valuation without getting accused of being short?

I'll share my UCPJ research note...

note: some of the embedded charts and formatting don't copy and paste too well - but you get the jist of it...

in the meantime, the 10K was issued and confirmed my Q4 and yearly revs and income estimates...




~~~PASTE FROM 3/30~~~

[03/30/2007] UCPJ - Let's go Hookah Diving!

05:28:45am
2007-03-30


Since it's T-minus 2 hours until my alarms starts it's shrill beeping, I'm going to keep this one short and let the company's filings do most of the talking.

United Companies (UCPJ.ob) popped up on a couple of my scans tonight and while I normally would have dismissed it on the basis of it's paltry $7mm market cap and sub-nickel share price, the chart was compelling enough to get me to dig in to the story. I've spent the last couple hours reading the most recent 10Q's and 10K's and it looks like these guys might actually be growing a nice little niche business here.

First let's take note of the chart. This is a weekly chart of the last 3 years. Note the dramatic plunge back in 04 when the stock broke it's support at $.05? Now that same level will serve as resistance going forward. A move above this level ($.05) on heavy volume would be extremely bullish for UCPJ. My guess is that today's move was prompted by the impending release of the firm's Q4 results and 10K for the full year of '06 that should be filed sometime tomorrow as they've made no announcements that they plan to file late.







The interesting thing about UCPJ, aside from the niche business and brand they've built (which we'll get into later) is the fact that revenue growth is strong, over 30% year over year, and SG&A expenses are actually remaining flat. Of course this is a rare combination that has to be explored when it's discovered as it portends to operational leverage that drives earnings growth.

It's also worth noting in these excerpts below, that through the first nine months of 06, UCPJ has already surpassed it's revenue from the full year of '05. Through Sept '06 revs were $3.1million vs. just $2.9mm for the FULL YEAR of 2005. I'll also paste an excerpt that shows the firm has for the first time accounted for paying income tax in their filing for Q3. Evidently, they anticipate paying taxes which translates to anticipating net income going forward.

What do they sell?

BROWNIE'S THIRD LUNG (WWW.BROWNIEDIVE.COM) - Surface Supplied Air (SSA),
Hookah, (Low Pressure Units) - recreational surface supplied air units (gas and
electric), commercial surface supplied air units (gas and electric), Pressurized
Snorkel (battery), Egressor packages and regulators, hookah hoses and
regulators, Drop weight Cummerbelt, dive weight belts, SeaDoo Sea Scooters,
Twin-trim, diving hose, diving kits, dive hose connections, replacement SS
engines, compressors, miscellaneous service parts, SSA accessories including but
not limited to gear bags, dog snares, and keel and trim weight packages.

BROWNIE'S TANKFILL (WWW.TANKFILL.COM) - Tankfill Systems (High And Low
Pressure Units) - Yacht Pro automated compressors (heavy-duty service capacity),
Yacht Pro automated compressors (medium-duty service capacity), marine basic
compressors (light-duty service capacity), Bauer portable compressors
(light-duty service capacity), custom tankfill and nitrox generation systems for
yachts, NitroxMakers, four-way fill manifolds, remote fill control panels, high
pressure storage/cascade systems, custom tank racks, Kaeser low pressure
compressors and components, E-Reel diving systems, hookah diving compressor for
boat installation, design and engineering services including but not limited to
AutoCAD, nitrox generation and custom gas mixing systems, and repairs and
service on all products sold.

BROWNIE'S PUBLIC SAFETY (WWW.BROWNIESPUBLICSAFETY.COM) - Public Safety
Dive Gear and Accessories - SHERPA, HELO systems, Rapid Entry System (RES),
Garment Integrated Personal Flotation Device (GI-PFD), Fast float system,
Personal Life raft, Surf shuttle, lift bags, and various other safety related
accessories.









The company is growing sales of their Hookah systems by teaming up with yacht builders and putting systems in new yachts as an optional feature. Believe it or not, Tiger Woods' new yacht has a Brownie system built-in.


Tiger Woods’ new getaway is Privacy, designed to provide him relaxed comfort and water-based enjoyment away from the madding crowds.

http://www.showboats.com/Articles/New-Notables/New-Notable-Nineteenth-Hole-2.asp?ht
"The added interior volume reportedly was a draw for Woods, who is also an avid diver and angler. The extra space in the aft peak allowed for the installation of a complex dive station that has the ability to make oxygen and produce nitrox, which is appropriate for dives down to 120 feet, as well as being able to blend heliox and trimix (oxygen/helium/nitrogen) for safer and unimpaired performance at depths of 200 feet or more. Robert Carmichael, of Fort Lauderdale-based Brownie’s Tankfill.com, the company that built the system, noted that the use of mixed gas systems requires highly specialized knowledge, adding that Privacy’s owner is participating in a two-year training program through Global Underwater Explorers."

Khaki Blue is not retro, but her evocative lines and owner-authored design prove that classic American styling is always fashionable

http://www.showboats.com/Articles/New-Notables/New-Notable-Modern-Vintage-2.asp?ht
"Powered by MTU 2000 series V16s rated at 2,000 horsepower each and front and rear thrusters, Khaki Blue also sports Naiad roll stabilizers with upgraded fins and a Brownie’s dive compressor."










Here are some snippets from the Q3 results....


Net revenues. For the three months ended September 30, 2006, we had net revenues of $1,098,692 as compared to net revenues of $810,824 for the three months ended September 30, 2005, an increase of $287,868 or 35.50%. This increase is primarily attributable to several factors occurring in the third quarter of 2006: we recognized approximately $215,000 of a contract sale for a dive system with hyperbaric support, there was an overall increase in both tankfill system and hookah system sales, and price increases and material cost savings instituted in the fourth quarter of 2005 carried over into the third quarter of 2006. The Company attributes its hookah system sales increases to expanding its market beyond the scuba dive retailer and into sporting goods and boating retailers, its web-based training program that was rolled out in July 2005, and to concerted marketing and sales efforts, including a release in July 2005 of a brand new catalog featuring all our products



Operating expenses. For the three months ended September 30, 2006, we had total operating expenses of $246,282, as compared to total operating expenses of $274,547 for the three months ended September 30, 2005, a decrease of $28,265 or 10.30%.



Provision for income tax. For the three months ended September 30, 2006, we had provision for income tax of $153,442, as compared to $0 for the three months ended September 30, 2005, an increase of $153,442. The increase is primarily attributable to federal income tax expense for the period of $95,072 and $53,370 related to full utilization of the existing deferred tax asset in the third quarter of 2006 that related to a net operating loss carryforward. The period expense provides for the cumulative effect of change in accounting estimate for income tax expense. Since the Company had been experiencing net losses, there was no provision for income tax expense. Instead, the company had a provision for tax benefit for the net operating loss carryforward. As of second quarter the loss trend reversed, and the income trend is carrying forward. Accordingly, Management revised its estimate in the third quarter of 2006 to provide for a reserve for income tax expense.


Net revenues. For the nine months ended September 30, 2006, we had net revenues of $3,175,702 as compared to net revenues of $2,357,887 for the nine months ended September 30, 2005, an increase of $817,815 or 34.68%.



Gross profit. For the nine months September ended 30, 2006, we had a gross profit of $1,169,669, as compared to gross profit of $834,795 for the comparable period in 2005, an increase of $334,874 or 40.11%.




Operating expenses. For the nine months ended September 30, 2006, we had total operating expenses of $766,896, as compared to total operating expenses of $773,804 for the nine months ended June 30, 2005, a decrease of $6,908 or 0.89%.

{My note: Revenues and gross profit growing at 34% and 40% clips, and operating expenses DECREASING at the same time!)



Net income (loss) before provision for income tax. For the nine months ended September 30, 2006, we had net income before provision for income taxes of $477,353 as compared to a $27,556 net loss before provision for income taxes for the nine months ended September 30, 2005. This represents an increase in net income before provision for income taxes of $504,909 or 1,832.30%. The increase is primarily attributable to the increase in net revenues for the nine months ended September 30, 2006.





If we assume that Q4 revenues come in around $1million, that translates to full year revenues of over $4million, and gross profit of approx. $1.3 to $1.4million. With UCPJ growing revs by a healthy 30% clip while lowering operating expenses, I would argue that these results deserve more than a $7million market cap.

Related Industries: New Pick - News Event - Short Term - Technical Analysis -

Initial Stock Price: $.047

Gross profit just shy of $1.5million on revs of $4.2million...cash flow positive to the tune of nearly $200,000...trading at a trailing P/E of 13...

I just profiled UCPJ to my subscribers...

Thought the UCPJ longs here might want to read what I sent to my subscribers...I-HUB doesn't display the proper formatting and images that were embedded, but at least you can see the content..


~~~PASTE~~~
[03/30/2007] UCPJ - Let's go Hookah Diving!

05:28:45am
2007-03-30


Since it's T-minus 2 hours until my alarms starts it's shrill beeping, I'm going to keep this one short and let the company's filings do most of the talking.

United Companies (UCPJ.ob) popped up on a couple of my scans tonight and while I normally would have dismissed it on the basis of it's paltry $7mm market cap and sub-nickel share price, the chart was compelling enough to get me to dig in to the story. I've spent the last couple hours reading the most recent 10Q's and 10K's and it looks like these guys might actually be growing a nice little niche business here.

First let's take note of the chart. This is a weekly chart of the last 3 years. Note the dramatic plunge back in 04 when the stock broke it's support at $.05? Now that same level will serve as resistance going forward. A move above this level ($.05) on heavy volume would be extremely bullish for UCPJ. My guess is that today's move was prompted by the impending release of the firm's Q4 results and 10K for the full year of '06 that should be filed sometime tomorrow as they've made no announcements that they plan to file late.







The interesting thing about UCPJ, aside from the niche business and brand they've built (which we'll get into later) is the fact that revenue growth is strong, over 30% year over year, and SG&A expenses are actually remaining flat. Of course this is a rare combination that has to be explored when it's discovered as it portends to operational leverage that drives earnings growth.

It's also worth noting in these excerpts below, that through the first nine months of 06, UCPJ has already surpassed it's revenue from the full year of '05. Through Sept '06 revs were $3.1million vs. just $2.9mm for the FULL YEAR of 2005. I'll also paste an excerpt that shows the firm has for the first time accounted for paying income tax in their filing for Q3. Evidently, they anticipate paying taxes which translates to anticipating net income going forward.

What do they sell?

BROWNIE'S THIRD LUNG (WWW.BROWNIEDIVE.COM) - Surface Supplied Air (SSA),
Hookah, (Low Pressure Units) - recreational surface supplied air units (gas and
electric), commercial surface supplied air units (gas and electric), Pressurized
Snorkel (battery), Egressor packages and regulators, hookah hoses and
regulators, Drop weight Cummerbelt, dive weight belts, SeaDoo Sea Scooters,
Twin-trim, diving hose, diving kits, dive hose connections, replacement SS
engines, compressors, miscellaneous service parts, SSA accessories including but
not limited to gear bags, dog snares, and keel and trim weight packages.

BROWNIE'S TANKFILL (WWW.TANKFILL.COM) - Tankfill Systems (High And Low
Pressure Units) - Yacht Pro automated compressors (heavy-duty service capacity),
Yacht Pro automated compressors (medium-duty service capacity), marine basic
compressors (light-duty service capacity), Bauer portable compressors
(light-duty service capacity), custom tankfill and nitrox generation systems for
yachts, NitroxMakers, four-way fill manifolds, remote fill control panels, high
pressure storage/cascade systems, custom tank racks, Kaeser low pressure
compressors and components, E-Reel diving systems, hookah diving compressor for
boat installation, design and engineering services including but not limited to
AutoCAD, nitrox generation and custom gas mixing systems, and repairs and
service on all products sold.

BROWNIE'S PUBLIC SAFETY (WWW.BROWNIESPUBLICSAFETY.COM) - Public Safety
Dive Gear and Accessories - SHERPA, HELO systems, Rapid Entry System (RES),
Garment Integrated Personal Flotation Device (GI-PFD), Fast float system,
Personal Life raft, Surf shuttle, lift bags, and various other safety related
accessories.









The company is growing sales of their Hookah systems by teaming up with yacht builders and putting systems in new yachts as an optional feature. Believe it or not, Tiger Woods' new yacht has a Brownie system built-in.


Tiger Woods’ new getaway is Privacy, designed to provide him relaxed comfort and water-based enjoyment away from the madding crowds.

http://www.showboats.com/Articles/New-Notables/New-Notable-Nineteenth-Hole-2.asp?ht
"The added interior volume reportedly was a draw for Woods, who is also an avid diver and angler. The extra space in the aft peak allowed for the installation of a complex dive station that has the ability to make oxygen and produce nitrox, which is appropriate for dives down to 120 feet, as well as being able to blend heliox and trimix (oxygen/helium/nitrogen) for safer and unimpaired performance at depths of 200 feet or more. Robert Carmichael, of Fort Lauderdale-based Brownie’s Tankfill.com, the company that built the system, noted that the use of mixed gas systems requires highly specialized knowledge, adding that Privacy’s owner is participating in a two-year training program through Global Underwater Explorers."

Khaki Blue is not retro, but her evocative lines and owner-authored design prove that classic American styling is always fashionable

http://www.showboats.com/Articles/New-Notables/New-Notable-Modern-Vintage-2.asp?ht
"Powered by MTU 2000 series V16s rated at 2,000 horsepower each and front and rear thrusters, Khaki Blue also sports Naiad roll stabilizers with upgraded fins and a Brownie’s dive compressor."










Here are some snippets from the Q3 results....


Net revenues. For the three months ended September 30, 2006, we had net revenues of $1,098,692 as compared to net revenues of $810,824 for the three months ended September 30, 2005, an increase of $287,868 or 35.50%. This increase is primarily attributable to several factors occurring in the third quarter of 2006: we recognized approximately $215,000 of a contract sale for a dive system with hyperbaric support, there was an overall increase in both tankfill system and hookah system sales, and price increases and material cost savings instituted in the fourth quarter of 2005 carried over into the third quarter of 2006. The Company attributes its hookah system sales increases to expanding its market beyond the scuba dive retailer and into sporting goods and boating retailers, its web-based training program that was rolled out in July 2005, and to concerted marketing and sales efforts, including a release in July 2005 of a brand new catalog featuring all our products



Operating expenses. For the three months ended September 30, 2006, we had total operating expenses of $246,282, as compared to total operating expenses of $274,547 for the three months ended September 30, 2005, a decrease of $28,265 or 10.30%.



Provision for income tax. For the three months ended September 30, 2006, we had provision for income tax of $153,442, as compared to $0 for the three months ended September 30, 2005, an increase of $153,442. The increase is primarily attributable to federal income tax expense for the period of $95,072 and $53,370 related to full utilization of the existing deferred tax asset in the third quarter of 2006 that related to a net operating loss carryforward. The period expense provides for the cumulative effect of change in accounting estimate for income tax expense. Since the Company had been experiencing net losses, there was no provision for income tax expense. Instead, the company had a provision for tax benefit for the net operating loss carryforward. As of second quarter the loss trend reversed, and the income trend is carrying forward. Accordingly, Management revised its estimate in the third quarter of 2006 to provide for a reserve for income tax expense.


Net revenues. For the nine months ended September 30, 2006, we had net revenues of $3,175,702 as compared to net revenues of $2,357,887 for the nine months ended September 30, 2005, an increase of $817,815 or 34.68%.



Gross profit. For the nine months September ended 30, 2006, we had a gross profit of $1,169,669, as compared to gross profit of $834,795 for the comparable period in 2005, an increase of $334,874 or 40.11%.




Operating expenses. For the nine months ended September 30, 2006, we had total operating expenses of $766,896, as compared to total operating expenses of $773,804 for the nine months ended June 30, 2005, a decrease of $6,908 or 0.89%.

{My note: Revenues and gross profit growing at 34% and 40% clips, and operating expenses DECREASING at the same time!)



Net income (loss) before provision for income tax. For the nine months ended September 30, 2006, we had net income before provision for income taxes of $477,353 as compared to a $27,556 net loss before provision for income taxes for the nine months ended September 30, 2005. This represents an increase in net income before provision for income taxes of $504,909 or 1,832.30%. The increase is primarily attributable to the increase in net revenues for the nine months ended September 30, 2006.





If we assume that Q4 revenues come in around $1million, that translates to full year revenues of over $4million, and gross profit of approx. $1.3 to $1.4million. With UCPJ growing revs by a healthy 30% clip while lowering operating expenses, I would argue that these results deserve more than a $7million market cap.

Related Industries: New Pick - News Event - Short Term - Technical Analysis -

Initial Stock Price: $.047

File Attachments:

He didn't purchase 94million shares...

That number represents Carmichael's total holdings...

The most recent Form 4 with Carmichael and GKR was the distribution of shares in the building purchase. UCPJ bought the building from GKR (a group which Carmichael is a partner) and pursuant to the terms, GKR received 4.4 million shares of stock...

Of that 4.4 million shares, Carmichael received 1.481 million shares....he didn't buy anything...

I'll share my CVV research...

~~~PASTE~~~

03/25/07
12:46:21am


3 Business units:

CVD Division
CVD (chemical vapor deposition) is a process by which a thin layer of advanced materials is grown on top of a substrate surface (generally silicon). The process is widely used in the fields of semiconductor and sensor design, and solar cells. CVV builds the equipment that end users employ for embedding chemical vapor systems into their production lines. This unit includes certain assets of First Nano Corp that were acquired in 2005 (more on this later).

SDC Division
Stainless Design Concepts build gas delivery sub-systems for ultra high purity semiconductor clean rooms. This unit also serves as an on-site maintenance arm for CVV.

Conceptronic Division
This division markets solder reflow furnaces which are used in the printed circuit board industry (PCB). PCB's must be soldered in atmospherically controlled furnaces as the presence of oxygen results in numerous solder defects.


Breakdown of revenues by unit:
For FY2005 CVV posted revenues of $11.22mm vs. $9.7mm in 2004. Representating revenue growth of 13.7%.
2005:
CVD $4.5 (40.7%) up from 28.5% in 04
SDC $2.2 (19.5%) unchanged from 04
CPD $4.4 (39.8%) down from 48.8% in 04

The CVD unit was the growth driver in 2005 and it continues to be in 2006. The company has stated in every 10Q since acquiring First Nano that demand is strong for their carbon nanotube machinery...

~~~PASTE~~~
As a result of an increase in the number of inquiries the Company has received and proposals
the Company has submitted, the Company has experienced an increased demand
for customized CVD systems along with requests for equipment provided by
the First Nano product line.

Strong Revenue Growth in 2006:

Through the first nine months of FY06, CVV has posted a fully taxed (40%) (NOL's are nearly depleted) diluted EPS of $0.11/share. Notably nearly surpassing in 3 qtrs the $.12/share untaxed earnings booked in all of fiscal 2005.

The $.11/share through 3qtrs of '06 reflects the 40% tax rate and $129,000 in stock compensation costs ($.04/share).

Revenues grew 17% sequentially in Q3 and 28% YoY. Through the first nine months of 2006 CVV has seen revenues jump by 20%. Again, this is driven largely by the ramp in sales for the CVD unit since it's acquisition of the promising carbon nanotube business of First Nano.

Gross margins in the quarter ended 9/30/06 increased by 300 basis points to 39%. CVV has successfully managed to offset increasing labor, energy and energy costs by taking full advantage of the economies of scale the First Nano investment has brought to their CVD unit.

CVV has managed to keep SG&A flat while growing revenues and profit at a double digit pace. SG&A in Q3 would have been unchanged from the same period in 05 had it not been for the recording of $43,000 of stock based compensation which was not recognized in 05. As it stands, SG&A was up only 5% despite the aforementioned increases in labor, insurance, and energy costs.

Earnings per share before the $173k in interest expense and 40% tax rate (EBIT) puts CVV at a $.26/EPS fully diluted compared to an untaxed $.18/EPS through the first nine months of 2005.


Q4 Forecast:

Q4 of FY2005 saw CVV book roughly 27% of the year's total revenue of $11.2mm. Using that ratio as a guideline and assuming a continuation of the 20% revenue growth trend we can extrapolate the following....

Q4 revs = ~$3.5mm
margins = ~40% (lower energy and shipping costs in Q4 vs Q3)
gross profit = ~$1.4mm
selling/shipping = ~$225,000
G&A = ~$725,000

EBIT = $.14/share vs $.02/share in Q4 2005

interest expense = ~$60,000
taxes (39%) = ~$152,000

Fully diluted and taxed EPS = ~$.08/share

This would bring full year 2006 EPS (taxed and diluted) to $.19/share of a trailing P/E of 28. The growth in the CVD unit and the key markets it sells into (namely solar cells and semiconductors) should portend a continuation in the 20% growth rate witnessed in both 05 and 06.

The company has shown the ability to control G&A costs while ramping revenues and profits. Assuming they can continue to maintain margins in the ~39% area and control costs, EPS for 07 should come in at $.30. Earning CVV a forward P/E of 18. The P/E's of comparable names in the nano/semi equipment space average 28x EPS. A similar forward P/E for CVV would put the PPS at $8.40, a 57% increase from Friday's close.

The markets revolve around differing viewpoints...I'm always amazed at the backlash that's sparked when someone offers a contrasting opinion.

I have no grudge against OPBL or it's shareholder's and I'm certainly not short. OPBL is no different than 99.9% of OTCBB issues in that they have some skeletons in the closet. Only difference is OPBL trades at a valuation that assumes these will never make it out of said closet.

I'm not trying to scare anyone (and it's not my first post on this board BTW, search AIXG)...

I think it was Wade who asked if there were perhaps issues with OPBL that he wasn't aware of. I'm simply sharing what I've discovered.

So if folks are in the stock, the ground rule here is that fellow posters can't share anything that may be viewed as negative? Just so I'm clear....

That recommendation was at $1.82...vastly different risk/reward ratio then...wouldn't you agree?

Re: OPBL - I tried to raise awareness on the OPBL board but everyone was too caught up in the euphoria to notice the red flags. Now they're starting to rear their ugly head....


~~~~PASTE FROM JAN 27th~~~~
http://www.investorshub.com/boards/read_msg.asp?message_id=16549983

PS - It's time to close the OPBL trade BTW...I wouldn't hold anything other than 'free' shares now. Play with the house's money - not your own. This was a nice opportunity at $1.82 or so, but now it's has vastly more downside risk than upside. OPBL's current valuation isn't even in the same universe of brokers/options firms.


Has anyone noticed that OPBL's OPEX platform was built by two contract programmer's for a shoestring budget of $800,000? I've been in touch with folks at some of the busiest energy derivative desks in NYC and none of them have even heard of OPEX until now.

NYMEX purchased their minority stake directly from insiders at less than half of where the stock is trading now. Remember, management has already guided that their 40% margins will be coming down soon.

CEO has an aggregious comp. package where he gets options at $.60 and then even more stock granted to the tune of 2% of revenue every quarter.

By the way, did you see that he just got 400,000 more shares at $.20/share?

~~PASTE~~
Issued pursuant to a Warrant Agreement, dated as of July 1, 2004, pursuant to which the Issuer agreed to issue Warrants to Pierpont based upon the trading volume of certain customers of the Issuer as set forth in the terms of the Warrant Agreement.

I've spoken with their CFO and he had ZERO clue what the value of their NOL asset was. It could be gone any quarter for all we know.

Why are the operations of a Coffee Shop wrapped up in OPBL's filings?

Why are there many of the same names that were in the scam blow-up that is XNL (Xethanol) in OPBL?

Who is their auditor? Oh, that's right, there isn't one. A financial firm with ties to a seat on the NYMEX and they don't have an auditor? Can you say, red flag?

Here's a link to some other insider's with shady pasts...

http://www.thestreet.com/_tscana/stocks/brokerages/10266218.html


The most ardent longs will hate me for this post, and I sincerely hope I'm wrong. That being said, just file this post away and check back on it in a few weeks, and remember that you had a head's up.


Just be careful here, that's all I'm saying. The level of self-dealing here is almost unprecedented.

Why does Cassidy get shares for $.20/each based on the trading volume brought to the firm by Sempra Energy Trading or whatever firm employs Mr. Jeffrey Bussan?

Has anyone found the link between Mr. Bussan and Mr. Cassidy? You might want to look into it since Cassidy is getting 600,000 shares for virtually free based on Mr. Bussan's trading volumes each month.


~~~PASTE~~~
Issued pursuant to a Warrant Agreement, dated as of July 1, 2004, pursuant to which the Issuer agreed to issue Warrants to Pierpont based upon the trading volume of certain customers of the Issuer as set forth in the terms of the Warrant Agreement.
~~~END PASTE~~~

That certain customer is Jeffrey Bussan. How many customers would OPBL have if they weren't compensating the folks who bring the volume with virtually free shares?

How 'bout WWE? I'll preorder a Hulkamania! Casket now! LOL!

One word - "NASCAR" ....

Has anyone mentioned NASCAR licensed urns and caskets to the company? Imagine the uptake there...no more loyal "Die-Hard" fan base anywhere in the world.

[02/23/2007] AIXG - Just starting my research here....

09:27:38am
2007-02-23


Somebody is aggressively accumulating shares of German technology firm Aixtron (AIXG). They are in the LED space, specifically they make the equipment that LED manufacturers utilize in the production of backlit LED's (MOVCD reactors). Veeco, one of the largest players in the space is predicting that the market that AIXG sells into will explode in the second half of this year......more to come...



~~~PASTE~~~
Veeco chief predicts year-end MOCVD boom

15 February 2007

With sales of MOCVD equipment continuing to gather momentum, Veeco chief executive Ed Braun says that the end of 2007 could mark a major scale-up in HB-LED chip capacity to meet anticipated demand from makers of large LCD screens.

Having just reported a 42 percent increase in sales of epitaxy equipment for 2006, Veeco’s chief executive believes that this positive trend will culminate in a major boom in orders for MOCVD reactors at the end of 2007.

Ed Braun, who believes that the market opportunity for Veeco in the high-brightness LED business is still in its infancy, says that the company sold $89 million worth of MOCVD and MBE equipment during 2006, compared with $63 million in 2005.

The bulk of those sales came from makers of HB-LED chips based in Taiwan, Korea and China, and that trend is set to continue this year with the introduction of more large-scale LCD screens featuring LED backlight units.

"Customers in Taiwan are buying two or three [MOCVD reactors] at a time to sample LEDs for LCD backlights," Braun told investors in a conference call to discuss the latest company results. "By the end of 2007, they are going to need ten or fifteen MOCVD tools at a time."

Although the market for large-size LED backlights in LCD monitors and TVs has yet to really take off, big-name brands such as Apple, HP and Samsung in particular have recently decided to design the technology into their notebook PC displays. TV applications, which tend to require more LEDs and a higher-quality color reproduction, are expected to follow this initial market penetration in 2008 and 2009.

Veeco is anticipating that the need for new MOCVD tools to meet the growing demand for higher-quality chip production will help to drive sales of epitaxy equipment to $115 million this year, and at a compound annual growth rate of nearly 30 percent thereafter.

The New York-headquartered company, whose Turbodisc MOCVD division is based in New Jersey, has recently launched its new K-Series of reactors. These tools feature a modular design that can be easily upgraded to meet the need for increases in LED chip capacity (see related story).

Braun indicated that by the close of 2007, sales of K-Series tools should account for the majority of orders for Veeco's MOCVD kit.

Company shareholders will be pleased to hear that the K-Series is being sold at a much higher gross margin than Veeco's previous MOCVD tools. That should help to boost its overall bottom-line profitability in the long run, as sales of the new equipment gather pace.

At the official launch of the K-Series reactors, Veeco revealed that it had already received orders for five of the systems, worth around $10 million in total.








~~~PASTE~~~

Aixtron cashes in with six-tool order from Genesis

6 February 2007

Said to be the fastest-growing LED manufacturer in Taiwan, Genesis Photonics says that, following an order for six more Thomas Swan MOCVD reactors, it will target the LCD backlighting market.

Genesis Photonics, the Taiwanese LED epiwafer and chip manufacturer, has ordered six more MOCVD reactors from Aixtron subsidiary Thomas Swan.

Part of a long-term purchase agreement, the capacity expansion is evidence of a move by the company to target LCD backlighting applications for high-brightness LEDs.

Founded in 2002 and with more than 36,300 ft2 of floorspace, Genesis Photonics has been described as the fastest-growing LED manufacturer in Taiwan.

"With this boost for our MOCVD production, Genesis will be in an excellent position to become one of the top suppliers for the LCD backlighting market," said CEO David Chung.

Display backlighting applications in handheld computers and mobile devices already represent around half of the total market for HB-LEDs. But, while unit shipments are continuing to grow quickly, selling prices of the chips are dropping just as rapidly - effectively limiting the size of this application market to around $2 billion per year.

Meanwhile, applications of HB-LEDs in much larger LCD display backlight units, such as notebook and desktop PCs, and high-definition televisions, are expected to grow strongly from a small established base over the next five years.

Recent market reports from DisplaySearch and iSuppli both suggest that of the 450 million or so LCD panels expected to ship in 2009, around 2.5-3 percent, or 11-12 million, will feature backlight units based on HB-LEDs (see related article).

While the complex nature of the LCD business makes the size of the emerging market opportunity for LED chip manufacturers difficult to predict, hundreds of emitters are required to illuminate the large screens that are now becoming widespread.

That has prompted iSuppli to suggest a market worth around $1 billion for HB-LED chips used in large-scale LCD backlights alone by 2009, and further rapid growth if the technology is widely adopted after that time.

However, the actual dollar value of this emerging market for HB-LEDs may be significantly lower if there is a rapid decrease in the average selling prices of the packaged chip die, as has been witnessed with the lower-brightness emitters that are used in mobile backlight applications.






~~~PASTE~~~

MOCVD systems respond to demand for higher LED productivity and yield
Manufacturers of equipment used to grow LED layer structures have introduced new systems capable of depositing even more material in a single run, in response to customer demand for higher throughput and more cost-effective production.
The new MOCVD systems introduced by Aixtron (Aachen, Germany) and Veeco (Somerset, NJ, USA) can grow gallium nitride-based LED layer structures on as many as 42 or 45 two-inch wafers, respectively, while each offering different attributes.

LED chips are composed of multiple layers of different semiconducting materials, which are deposited onto circular wafers inside a metal-organic chemical vapor deposition (MOCVD) system. This process, known as epitaxy, is critical for determining LED performance characteristics and therefore influences binning of white LEDs.

Rainer Beccard, Aixtron's director of marketing, says that the first AIX 2800G4 Planetary Reactors from Aixtron are now operational at customer sites in Asia, and that a double-digit number of machines have been sold. With a capacity of 42 two-inch wafers, and based on the modular IC (integrated concept) platform, the system has almost double the capacity of the company's previous-largest machine.



+++++++

This article was published in the February 2007 issue of LEDs Magazine.

To read the rest of this article, please visit our Magazine page, where you can download FREE electronic PDF versions of all issues of LEDs Magazine.

those aren't arguments...


Just be careful here, that's all I'm saying. The level of self-dealing here is almost unprecedented.

Why does Cassidy get shares for $.20/each based on the trading volume brought to the firm by Sempra Energy Trading or whatever firm employs Mr. Jeffrey Bussan?

Has anyone found the link between Mr. Bussan and Mr. Cassidy? You might want to look into it since Cassidy is getting 600,000 shares for virtually free based on Mr. Bussan's trading volumes each month.


~~~PASTE~~~
Issued pursuant to a Warrant Agreement, dated as of July 1, 2004, pursuant to which the Issuer agreed to issue Warrants to Pierpont based upon the trading volume of certain customers of the Issuer as set forth in the terms of the Warrant Agreement.
~~~END PASTE~~~

That certain customer is Jeffrey Bussan. How many customers would OPBL have if they weren't compensating the folks who bring the volume with virtually free shares?

That was at $1.82 for crying out loud....One could put some of the concerns on the back-burner at those prices and focus on the earnings momentum.

That risk-reward ratio has changed dramatically since then.

As I've said, I sincerely hope I'm wrong.

I do it everyday (not quite to this extent of course) at my site, www.insightertrading.com.

OPBL was our 13th double since July of 2006.

Skeptical? I understand...

Scroll down to the first post on this OPBL board and look who it's from.

Then go to the I-Hub TIXC board, look at my post there at $2.15. TIXC subsequently ran to $5.90.

Then do a google search on the phrase "insightertrading and HOKU". What I did with that one made the national media.

Congrats to all OPBL longs!


PS - It's time to close the OPBL trade BTW...I wouldn't hold anything other than 'free' shares now. Play with the house's money - not your own. This was a nice opportunity at $1.82 or so, but now it's has vastly more downside risk than upside. OPBL's current valuation isn't even in the same universe of brokers/options firms.


Has anyone noticed that OPBL's OPEX platform was built by two contract programmer's for a shoestring budget of $800,000? I've been in touch with folks at some of the busiest energy derivative desks in NYC and none of them have even heard of OPEX until now.

NYMEX purchased their minority stake directly from insiders at less than half of where the stock is trading now. Remember, management has already guided that their 40% margins will be coming down soon.

CEO has an aggregious comp. package where he gets options at $.60 and then even more stock granted to the tune of 2% of revenue every quarter.

By the way, did you see that he just got 400,000 more shares at $.20/share?

~~PASTE~~
Issued pursuant to a Warrant Agreement, dated as of July 1, 2004, pursuant to which the Issuer agreed to issue Warrants to Pierpont based upon the trading volume of certain customers of the Issuer as set forth in the terms of the Warrant Agreement.

I've spoken with their CFO and he had ZERO clue what the value of their NOL asset was. It could be gone any quarter for all we know.

Why are the operations of a Coffee Shop wrapped up in OPBL's filings?

Why are there many of the same names that were in the scam blow-up that is XNL (Xethanol) in OPBL?

Who is their auditor? Oh, that's right, there isn't one. A financial firm with ties to a seat on the NYMEX and they don't have an auditor? Can you say, red flag?

Here's a link to some other insider's with shady pasts...

http://www.thestreet.com/_tscana/stocks/brokerages/10266218.html


The most ardent longs will hate me for this post, and I sincerely hope I'm wrong. That being said, just file this post away and check back on it in a few weeks, and remember that you had a head's up.

See this post http://www.investorshub.com/boards/read_msg.asp?message_id=16158431

If you don't mind me interjecting - this thing with CLBN is one of the funniest things i've seen in quite some time.

A Forbes reporter was on CNBC's "On the Money" last night discussing why the big integrated oil firms aren't doing any work in Iraq yet.

In the course of the interview, (i was listening in my car on the way home from work) he mentioned a tiny US listed firm called "Caliber Energy" that has struck a deal with the Kurds in the North of the country and is drilling on one of Iraq's largest oil fields.

Immediately when I got home, I went straight to Yahoo Finance and did a symbol search on the phrase "Caliber Energy". Of course the result was CLBN.ob. I was mystified to see though that the thing was like $.01 and had ZERO headlines of any kind. When I went to their website their was NO mention of operations in Iraq.

This got me thinking, If you run a company whose stock trades at $.01 - and you were drilling for oil in one of the World's biggest oil fields, you would certainly have a PR or two discussing it.

At this point I started digging further. After a few minutes of intense Googling, I found the company in question....

It's NOT Caliber Energy (CLBN)

It IS Calibre Energy (CBRE)

In an ironic twist of fate, CLBN a company with virtually ZERO operations anywhere in the world, skyrocketed 300%, while CBRE a company tapping huge Iraqi oil reserves was actually down a bit on light volume.

Clearly the markets are NOT rational.......

More pieces of the CSCO puzzle.....



I just dug this up also...dovetails nicely with recent events...




~~~~~~~~PASTE FROM MY SITE~~~~~~~~~
[12/14/2006] VCST - Update.....Another piece of the CSCO puzzle...

08:26:23am
2006-12-14



I've just found more evidence that confirms my original theory I posited here three weeks ago: that VCST's link-up with CSCO was a transformational event for the company.
Consider this article I just pulled off of the news wires describing CSCO's plans for the Video over IP space. Then go back and re-read the VCST profile and pay close attention
to how their products dovetail with CSCO's direction in their Telepresence initiative.

First the article (with highlights added by yours truly for emphasis), and then the link back to the original VCST call for reference.....



~~~~~PASTE OF COMPUTERWORLD ARTICLE~~~~~~

Cisco's Chambers has his eyes on the tube
CEO John Chambers says Cisco is focused on the whole gamut of video screens Phil Hochmuth (Network World) 14/12/2006 09:59:00

Cisco CEO John Chambers wants to make it clear that his company's top executives and technologists all have their eyes sharply focused on video screens -- from 50-inch plasmas, to cell phone and desktop PC monitors.

Speaking to industry analysts at Cisco's C-Scape conference in San Jose, California, Chambers continued to push video as the application that will drive Cisco's growth, as well as a technology that will lift up the vendor's traditional router and switch -- or, as Chambers says "plumbing" -- business.

C-Scape, a revamped version of Cisco's annual World Wide Analyst Conference, runs from Tuesday, Dec. 12 to 13. At the event, Chambers said he expects to see an explosion of video usage in all areas of networking, such as high-definition telepresence and corporate video messaging in enterprises, as well as IPTV in carrier networks. Cisco also plans to capitalize on expansion of burgeoning video-on-demand and movie downloading services, as well as low-quality, but high-volume, video streaming on personal networking sites such as YouTube and MySpace.

"If there is a killer application, it is video," Chambers said. "Just watch what has occurred with YouTube," where more than 40 million videos, at over 200TB, are streamed per day, according to estimates. "I would consider that baby-steps in terms of [potential future] loads on networks."

Cisco says it will capitalize on the video push with its traditional routers and switches, as well as new products, such as gear that allows a business to encode high-quality video from a desktop, and manage the distribution of content across a company. Meanwhile, Cisco will pursue video growth in the consumer, home network and entertainment markets through its Scientific Atlanta and Linksys brands.

The effect video is having on carriers is reflected in their purchase orders from Cisco, Chambers claims, as purchase of CRS-1 routers -- Cisco's highest-end product -- by service providers "are going from is going from three to five to 10 to 15 to 30 and sometimes 40" CRS-1s in a network in anticipation of growth. (Sales of the terabit-scale router have grown 600% year-over-year since its introduction in 2004, he added.)

Chambers and Cisco "Chief Demonstration Officer" Jim Grubb also showed off new enterprise video products that will be announced in January, which let enterprises control video, multimedia and digital signage content on kiosks, large-screen displays, and network-attached billboard devices.

The Cisco Media Player is a small, set-top-box-sized network device, which can stream video, still images or text to any type of display -- such as a plasma or LCD flat panel, or kiosk screen. The box is managed by software called Digital Media Manager, which allows administrators to group the Media Players, control what content is pushed to the devices, and when.





Link back to the original VCST profile.....


http://www.insightertrading.com/node/319

My analysis of VCST....

Just thought I'd share my analysis of VCST and why I think it's one of the most compelling stories in the market right now. Feel free to point out anything I may have missed. I dispatched this to my shareholder's the weekend after the CSCO link-up @ $.38.


FYI: the last profile I liked this much was TIXC which I covered at $2.15 on 10/30....it hit $5.90 yesterday...let's hope the same thing is in store for VCST!




~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~PASTE OF VCST PROFILE~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
[11/13/2006] VCST - Just found a pretty nice partner...CSCO...

02:42:32am
2006-11-13

Viewcast (VCST) rocketed last Friday from an open at $.19 to a close of $.38. Why would I be discussing it after a move like that? Several reasons...

1) Combined volume for all of last week was just over 3million shares. Taking an average share price of $.25/share - that's only $750,000 changing hands all last week.

2) While $750,000 worth of VCST trading last week is certainly significant and probably a record for the firm, I don't think it accurately represents implications of the news VCST issued. What was the news??

~~PASTE~~

ViewCast Chosen as OEM Supplier to a Global Network Leader
Thursday November 2, 3:59 pm ET
PLANO, Texas--(BUSINESS WIRE)--ViewCast Corporation (OTCBB:VCST - News), a leading global provider of high-quality audio and video communication products, today announced that an original equipment manufacturing (OEM) agreement has been signed with one of the global leaders in networking for the Internet pursuant to which ViewCast will sell and license certain products for resale on a stand-alone basis and/or as incorporated into their products. The first order has been accepted by ViewCast and begun shipping.

The one-year renewable agreement initially calls for ViewCast to supply Niagara® GoStream, a single channel, portable encoding appliance, and the Niagara PowerStream Pro, a dual channel, rack-mount encoder, that will be re-branded and integrated into their digital media solution offering according to certain agreed upon product specifications. Organizations increasingly seek to use business-quality, dynamic video and audio to quickly and easily connect customers, employees, partners or students. Users of systems such as ViewCast's Niagara can create, manage and deliver live and on-demand digital media in various formats to multiple wired or wireless connected devices.

~~END PASTE~~


Now, what this PR doesn't say, but a subsequent 8-k filing did, is that the "global networking leader" referred to is none other than CISCO (CSCO).

Now certainly, a tiny little firm with a $9million market cap like VCST could sign a contract to supply toilet paper to CSCO and the stock would double like it did Friday. We see micro-caps launch into the stratosphere frequently just by finding some small way to link themselves to a multi-billion dollar industry leader. Just a couple weeks ago, as an example, little known IMMG soared due to a press release that touted the fact that Microsoft had chose the company to design the retail display kiosk for the Zune media player.

VCST's deal with CSCO is different. Let's connect the dots. Here's what VCST is in the business of building....

~~PASTE~~
ViewCast.com, Inc., doing business as ViewCast Corporation, engages in the design, development, and marketing of video communications products and services worldwide. The company’s products address the video capture, processing, and delivery requirements for various applications and markets. Its products include the Osprey line of video capture cards, the ViewCast IVN (Interactive Video Network) systems, and the Niagara line of video encoding systems and servers, as well as related application software, such as SimulStream and Niagara SCX. These products are installed in computers, appliances, or within a communications network and are used for various audio and video communication applications, including corporate communications, information gathering, security, training, distance learning, conferencing, Internet video, and broadcast applications.

~~END PASTE~~

Now we know from the Press Release that Cisco has signed a one-year agreement to purchase VCST's Niagara system video encoders. The Niagara line is built specifically to create, manage and deliver live and on-demand digital media in various formats to multiple wired or wireless connected devices.

Bearing the functionality of this product line in mind, let's take a closer look at where VCST says CSCO will be deploying the product....

~~PASTE FROM GRAPH 2 of VCST PR~~~
Niagara® GoStream, a single channel, portable encoding appliance, and the Niagara PowerStream Pro, a dual channel, rack-mount encoder, that will be re-branded and integrated into their digital media solution offering according to certain agreed upon product specifications.

~~END PASTE~~


So let's see what CSCO has planned for their "Digital Media Solution". Keep in mind that CSCO's revenues for the just reported quarter were nearly $10billion dollars. It would be virtually IMPOSSIBLE for CSCO to sell anything of VCST's and not double or triple their (VCST) current annual revenue of just over $12million. That sounds like a bold statement but consider what CSCO has said about their "Digital Media System"...this is where VCST's hardware is headed.....

~~PASTE FROM CSCO 10Q on 11/9/06~~
New Product Introductions

* Cisco TelePresence, a new emerging technology solution that creates in-person experiences between people, places and events whether they are across town or across the world.

* Cisco Digital Media System, a new emerging technology designed to enable organizations to use business-quality, dynamic video and audio to easily connect customers, employees, partners or students anywhere, anytime.

~~END PASTE~~



In my humble opinion, any new product introduction that's going to make it into it's own bullet point in CSCO's quarterly results Press Release equals MUCH higher prices for VCST in the future. Consider the sheer scale of some of the 'early-adopters' of CSCO's TelePresence and Digital Media efforts....


~~PASTE FROM CSCO 10Q on 11/906~~

Major Customer Wins

* AT&T completed initial testing of Cisco's TelePresence Meeting Solution to help ensure network interoperability and performance; Verizon Business is expected to soon begin testing the technology.

~~END PASTE~~



Ideally, I would like to see the stock give us a nice dip to buy in the morning. Perhaps down to the $.30 level. Even at these prices, VCST is still trading at under 1 x sales. Considering the revenue train they just hitched a ride on, I think the shares are a bargain here. I would step in incrementally and look to be an opportunistic buyer of dips. Not everyone will piece this puzzle together like we just did.




Related Industries: New Pick - News Event - Overlooked Potential - Short Term - Tech -

Initial Stock Price: $.38

That may be a bit too aggressive, but high $.30's is definately plausible....just think of all the investors in last years PIPE at $1.40....they'll be doing some tax loss selling here....I'll bet ole Dion lost a lot of friends over this one....

Insighter's have been here since $2.15... +152%


Here's the analysis of TIXC I sent to my subscribers at www.insightertrading.com on 10/30/06 when TIXC was $2.15. Just thought the fellow longs here might find it interesting.

I've spoken with Mitch several times and he is very accomodating. If you ever have a question about the company, just call him and ask.

Here's my report:


~~~PASTE FROM INSIGHTERTRADING.COM 10/30/06~~~
[10/30/2006] TIXC - Cheap Show Tickets + Vegas = Record Profits...

02:26:45am
2006-10-30

I remember looking at TIXC and considering posting it here for a stretch of several days back in July when the shares bolted from about $.70 to $1.25. I decided against it, largely because I just couldn't get a feel for whether or not this story was legit or just a 'pump & dump'.

Looking back at the recent performance of both the stock and the company itself, I'm beginning to think they're for real....at least for now. TIXC is a pretty thinly traded (rarely over 100k shares/day) OTCBB company that operates under the name Tix Corp. Tix Corp is in the business of acting as a clearinghouse for discounted 'same day' show tickets in Las Vegas. Think of their "Tix4Tonight" service as a Priceline.com for Vegas tickets. Dramatically marked down, but the consumer sacrifices their showtime preferences.

Clearly the model is working. TIXC is growing gross ticket revenues at a triple digit clip every month. Keep in mind, these figures represent the gross dollars from the ticket sale. I'll break down TIXC's commission revenue in a bit.

Monthly Ticket Revenue Ramp:


Q1 +111% '06 vs '05

Q2 +108% '06 vs '05

Q3 (by month)

July +115% ($2.0mill) vs '05

August +126% ($2.1mill) vs '05

September +142% ($2.1mill) vs '05


Yes indeed folks, that's GOOG like growth from an unheard of OTCBB stock. In fact, the company is using this newfound cashflow from operations to take significant steps to clean up it's balance sheet. Anyone who's ever dabbled in the OTCBB knows full well that even the most promising business model can be derailed by a debt-ridden balance sheet.

Management paid off early two convertibles it had done with Advantage Capital Corp back in Q2. This is the kind of thing you like to see, but rarely do from a OTCBB stock. As a shareholder, it's nice to see management using cash from operations to prevent a lender from converting your debt into shares and diluting the share price into oblivion.

Next, they cancelled a financing deal with Cornell Capital. Again, very rare and very bullish. TIXC had a standby agreement with Cornell (the king's of OTCBB death spiral financings) that would have allowed them to issue cheap stock in exchange for cash if necessary. The fact that TIXC cancelled this agreement before selling any equity gives us a pretty clear indication of how they feel about cashflow from operations going forward.

Finally, just last month they improved the balance sheet yet again by paying off an interest due note early and saved over $1million in interest by doing so. This event will trigger a non-cash gain in Q3 of $1.079million. My guess is this $1mill gain on the balance sheet will make it in the headline EPS number when TIXC reports Q3 results.


If I'm right about the additional $1million non-cash gain in the headlines, it will add to what already looks to be an incredibly strong quarter for TIXC. The data they've given us to this point makes it easy to connect the dots. Just doing some quick calculations....

July revs = $2.0mill
Aug revs = $2.1mill
Sep revs = $2.1mill
-----------------------------
Q3 revs = $6.2mill

TIXC's commissions have been running right around 24% in previous quarters. Using that figure we get commissions and fees earned of approximately:

$6.2mill x 24% = $1.48million

That figure represents a healthy 12% sequential increase over Q2 of '06 and a whopping 100% increase over the $740,000 in commissions in Q3 of '05. It should be noted, that I'm speculating that the company will include the $1million non-cash gain in it's Q3 headlines which combined with what should already be record EPS, could attract quite a few buyers.

Also notable, TIXC has over $15million in tax loss carryforwards, so taxes won't be an issue for quite some time. Also, the company's business model of upfront payment for tickets translates to ZERO accounts receivable.


Potential Pitfalls:

Of course even the most compelling stories have their downsides, and while TIXC has taken great strides to eliminate most of the usual suspects, a few remain....

First and foremost is the $1 million that they raised back in June at $.25/share. This represented the main reason I decided not to discuss TIXC in July. Anytime you see a company put stock in the marketplace that costs the holder a mere fraction of the current trading price, you have to be cautious and assume all those shares will be sold. In TIXC's defense, the stock was trading right around $.25 when they did the deal. Perhaps though, this dilution was responsible for holding the share price in a sideways pattern for the last two and a half months.

Lastly, on a thinly traded issue like TIXC with a chart that has appreciated this much, there really isn't much in the way of key support levels to use as predictable stop out points. The $1.30 level is about the closest thing you'll find but that's a long way down from $2.15. Instead, I would look at moving averages like the 20day ema which is $1.72.






Related Industries: New Pick - Overlooked Potential - Short Term -

Initial Stock Price: $2.15

View screen caps of all our calls at www.insightertrading.com

I just don't see any catalysts on the horizon Aiming...tax loss selling will hit it hard in the last couple weeks of the year also. Last year I think Dion propped the price up artficially right at the end of the year, and while I've been hoping that would take place again this year to give folks an exit, I don't see any chance of it now.

The stock is broken and management has over promised and under delivered for so long that any rally will be quickly shot down by frustrated longs headed for the exits.

For the three years I've followed this company, I've always wondered to myself and to other longs, "Perhaps the product DOES work, but nobody will buy it." That appears to be the case. When we came off of record crude and distillate prices during the Summer, and the company still hadn't made any measurable progress toward commercialization it was clear that there is just no market for this technology.

I'm actually a bit more intrigued now by ETCK. They have an additive to improve MPG in diesel apps but unlike IFUE they have six figure revenues each quarter and are growing. I've spoken with their largest investor and he tells me the chemical composition of their product is light years ahead of IFUE's surfactant technology. Surfactant's are not new to the additive industry and many chemist's will tell you that the best case scenario in long term surfactant additization is MPG increases in the low single digits.

My bet is the "new hire" option....

Research report on SGEN....

Here is the profile of SGEN I posted on my micro cap research site, www.insightertrading.com on 9/13 when SGEN was $4.66....


~~~~PASTE~~~~


[09/13/2006] SGEN - Pipeline full of cancer drugs...

05:03:21am
2006-09-13


Seattle Genetics is a very intriguing little micro cap biotech name.



* Link ups with some pharmaceutical giants such as Bristol-Myers, Curagen, Genentech, and ICOS.



* Pipeline loaded with promising drugs in clinical trials...

* SGN-30 is a genetically engineered antibody targeted to the CD30 antigen, which is expressed on Hodgkin's disease and some types of non-Hodgkin's lymphoma. In completed phase I and ongoing phase II studies of SGN-30, we demonstrated that the product candidate has a clean safety profile and objective antitumor activity. SGN-30 is currently in phase II clinical trials for patients with systemic anaplastic large cell lymphoma (ALCL) or cutaneous ALCL.

* SGN-40 is a humanized antibody targeted to the CD40 antigen, which is expressed on hematologic malignancies such as multiple myeloma, non-Hodgkin's lymphoma and chronic lymphocytic leukemia, as well as solid tumors such as bladder, renal and ovarian cancer. We are conducting two phase I clinical trials of SGN-40 in patients with multiple myeloma or non-Hodgkin's lymphoma and a phase I/II clinical trial in chronic lymphocytic leukemia.

* SGN-33 is a humanized antibody targeted to the CD33 antigen, which is highly expressed on acute myeloid leukemia (AML), myelodysplastic syndromes (MDS) and several myeloproliferative disorders. We are conducting a phase I clinical trial of SGN-33 in patients with AML or MDS.

* Pre-clinical stage drug candidates...

* SGN-35 is an antibody-drug conjugate (ADC) composed of a genetically engineered antibody targeted to the CD30 antigen that is linked to a derivative of the highly potent class of drugs called Auristatins using our second-generation ADC technology. We are currently conducting preclinical development of SGN-35 as a therapy for hematologic malignancies, such as Hodgkin's disease, with the goal of filing an IND with the FDA in mid-2006.

*

SGN-70 is a humanized antibody targeting the CD70 antigen that possesses potent effector function and direct cell-killing ability. The CD70 antigen is expressed on renal cancer, nasopharyngeal carcinoma and certain hematologic malignancies. In addition, because CD70 is expressed on activated T- and B-cells, but not on those cells when in a resting state, SGN-70 may also have applications in immunologic and inflammatory diseases. SGN-70 is an IND candidate in 2007.

*

SGN-75 is an ADC comprised of the SGN-70 antibody linked to an Auristatin derivative using our second-generation ADC technology. SGN-75 demonstrates potent antitumor activity at well tolerated doses in preclinical models of human renal cancer. This preclinical product candidate may also have application in CD70-positive hematologic malignancies as well as immunologic and inflammatory diseases. SGN-75 is being developed for future clinical trials.


As interesting as all the big pharma names and promising pipeline are, there is another aspect of SGEN that perhaps tells us all we need to know. Institutional buying. Simply put, there aren't more than a handful of individual investors in the World that can read the clinical studies of SGEN and determine whether or not the company's stock is poised for price appreciation or not. In the field of biotechnology, perhaps more than any other, we have to rely on the sentiment of investors who make their living analyzing data from firms like SGEN.

As evidence in the case for SGEN, I submit Baker Brothers Advisors LLC. Felix Baker is a Ph.D. who runs a Billion dollar hedge fund that invests only in developmental life sciences companies. What does Baker think of SGEN? In the last three months they have increased their position in SGEN shares by 342%. They now hold over 5.2million shares (over 10% of the float) and SGEN is their 3 largest holding in a portfolio of some 64 positions. It's also worth noting that Bill Gates' foundation owns nearly 7% of the outstanding shares.

Here's some insight from equity analyst firm RBC Capital Markets on why SGEN is attracting the big money recently...acquisition candidate...

RBC comments on recent antibody technology acquisitions, thinks more
deals are likely to follow...

RBC notes that four antibody technology companies have been acquired
in the past six months, with large premiums being paid. Firm thinks
more deals are likely to follow, and believes antibody companies with
retained product rights, core expertise, manufacturing assets, and
differentiated technology will be targets for big pharma. They say
there are a limited number of public companies with technology, drug
candidates, and/or manufacturing capabilities. In their coverage
universe, this includes Seattle Genetics (SGEN) and ImmunoGen (IMGN).
They say both have differentiated technology and proprietary drug
candidates. ImmunoGen, however, is currently tightly aligned with
Sanofi Aventis making M&A with any other firm less likely.


From a technical analysis perspective, the chart shows us several key levels. Support is found right around $4.00 as that is the level where Baker Bros was aggressively buying stock. Resistance is right at $4.60 and yesterday marked the first day since early May that SGEN shares closed above this level. The 50 day moving average at $4.22 would serve as a low risk stop out level...




Related Industries: Health - Long Term - New Pick - Overlooked Potential - Pharmaceutical - Technical Analysis -

Initial Stock Price: $4.66

Aiming, I think mgmt has burned a lot of bridges and it's going to take an entirely new group of buyers to take this higher...folks who have been long for years are growing tired of the same old stories...

congrats Defender....looks like you were right all along....management vastly oversold investors on the prospects for commercialization....

Comprehensive TIXC analysis...


Here's the analysis of TIXC I sent to my subscribers at www.insightertrading.com on 10/30/06 when TIXC was $2.15. Just thought the fellow longs here might find it interesting.

I've spoken with Mitch several times and he is very accomodating. If you ever have a question about the company, just call him and ask.

Here's my report:


~~~PASTE FROM INSIGHTERTRADING.COM 10/30/06~~~
[10/30/2006] TIXC - Cheap Show Tickets + Vegas = Record Profits...

02:26:45am
2006-10-30

I remember looking at TIXC and considering posting it here for a stretch of several days back in July when the shares bolted from about $.70 to $1.25. I decided against it, largely because I just couldn't get a feel for whether or not this story was legit or just a 'pump & dump'.

Looking back at the recent performance of both the stock and the company itself, I'm beginning to think they're for real....at least for now. TIXC is a pretty thinly traded (rarely over 100k shares/day) OTCBB company that operates under the name Tix Corp. Tix Corp is in the business of acting as a clearinghouse for discounted 'same day' show tickets in Las Vegas. Think of their "Tix4Tonight" service as a Priceline.com for Vegas tickets. Dramatically marked down, but the consumer sacrifices their showtime preferences.

Clearly the model is working. TIXC is growing gross ticket revenues at a triple digit clip every month. Keep in mind, these figures represent the gross dollars from the ticket sale. I'll break down TIXC's commission revenue in a bit.

Monthly Ticket Revenue Ramp:


Q1 +111% '06 vs '05

Q2 +108% '06 vs '05

Q3 (by month)

July +115% ($2.0mill) vs '05

August +126% ($2.1mill) vs '05

September +142% ($2.1mill) vs '05


Yes indeed folks, that's GOOG like growth from an unheard of OTCBB stock. In fact, the company is using this newfound cashflow from operations to take significant steps to clean up it's balance sheet. Anyone who's ever dabbled in the OTCBB knows full well that even the most promising business model can be derailed by a debt-ridden balance sheet.

Management paid off early two convertibles it had done with Advantage Capital Corp back in Q2. This is the kind of thing you like to see, but rarely do from a OTCBB stock. As a shareholder, it's nice to see management using cash from operations to prevent a lender from converting your debt into shares and diluting the share price into oblivion.

Next, they cancelled a financing deal with Cornell Capital. Again, very rare and very bullish. TIXC had a standby agreement with Cornell (the king's of OTCBB death spiral financings) that would have allowed them to issue cheap stock in exchange for cash if necessary. The fact that TIXC cancelled this agreement before selling any equity gives us a pretty clear indication of how they feel about cashflow from operations going forward.

Finally, just last month they improved the balance sheet yet again by paying off an interest due note early and saved over $1million in interest by doing so. This event will trigger a non-cash gain in Q3 of $1.079million. My guess is this $1mill gain on the balance sheet will make it in the headline EPS number when TIXC reports Q3 results.


If I'm right about the additional $1million non-cash gain in the headlines, it will add to what already looks to be an incredibly strong quarter for TIXC. The data they've given us to this point makes it easy to connect the dots. Just doing some quick calculations....

July revs = $2.0mill
Aug revs = $2.1mill
Sep revs = $2.1mill
-----------------------------
Q3 revs = $6.2mill

TIXC's commissions have been running right around 24% in previous quarters. Using that figure we get commissions and fees earned of approximately:

$6.2mill x 24% = $1.48million

That figure represents a healthy 12% sequential increase over Q2 of '06 and a whopping 100% increase over the $740,000 in commissions in Q3 of '05. It should be noted, that I'm speculating that the company will include the $1million non-cash gain in it's Q3 headlines which combined with what should already be record EPS, could attract quite a few buyers.

Also notable, TIXC has over $15million in tax loss carryforwards, so taxes won't be an issue for quite some time. Also, the company's business model of upfront payment for tickets translates to ZERO accounts receivable.


Potential Pitfalls:

Of course even the most compelling stories have their downsides, and while TIXC has taken great strides to eliminate most of the usual suspects, a few remain....

First and foremost is the $1 million that they raised back in June at $.25/share. This represented the main reason I decided not to discuss TIXC in July. Anytime you see a company put stock in the marketplace that costs the holder a mere fraction of the current trading price, you have to be cautious and assume all those shares will be sold. In TIXC's defense, the stock was trading right around $.25 when they did the deal. Perhaps though, this dilution was responsible for holding the share price in a sideways pattern for the last two and a half months.

Lastly, on a thinly traded issue like TIXC with a chart that has appreciated this much, there really isn't much in the way of key support levels to use as predictable stop out points. The $1.30 level is about the closest thing you'll find but that's a long way down from $2.15. Instead, I would look at moving averages like the 20day ema which is $1.72.






Related Industries: New Pick - Overlooked Potential - Short Term -

Initial Stock Price: $2.15

Another player in OPBL's space...

another one to watch in this space is NYFX.

Covered OPBL at insightertrading.com....

I profiled OPBL to my members at www.insightertrading.com on 11/20 @ $1.82, here's the text:


~~~PASTE~~~


[11/20/2006] OPBL - Buy it here? It's Optionable.....

09:00:05am
2006-11-20


I've been watching Optionable Inc. (OPBL) since last week when it was in the $1.50's, but I've been waiting to see if it would pull back from it's run. As of this writing, it's done no such thing and is now printing $1.82 giving the firm a market cap just shy of $100mm.

OPBL exclusively handles energy futures contracts on the NYMEX for institutional clients and hedge funds. This is a great space to be in now for several reasons.

1) The amount of money flowing into private equity houses is mind boggling. At last count there are something like 9,000 hedge funds in the US and you can safely assume the majority of those are trading energy futures contracts.

2) Options contract volumes on energy derivatives is growing exponentially and setting records each month. You need to look no further than the NYMEX's IPO last week that doubled on it's first day, and you'll get an indication of how folks view the strength of the energy futures trading business.

OPBL is profitable, with operating margins north of 40% and they're growing like a weed. They've developed a trading software system for their clients and this has allowed them to grow the business beyond the trading they could have handled on the floor in the public outcry pits.


Here's a snippet from the last 10Q to give some color on their growth trajectory...



Optionable Inc Reports Record Results for the 2006 Third Quarter, First Nine Months
Wednesday October 25, 7:45 am ET
BRIARCLIFF MANOR, N.Y., Oct. 25 /PRNewswire-FirstCall/ -- Optionable, Inc (OTC Bulletin Board: OPBL - News), a leading provider of natural gas and other energy derivatives brokerage services, announced today record results from operations for its third quarter and nine months ended September 30, 2006, posting strong gains in revenue, net income and EPS. The Company said that revenues increased 166 percent and 123 percent, respectively, compared to prior year periods, and net income also reached all time highs, increasing 216 percent and 270 percent, respectively, from the prior year periods.

Revenues for the third quarter ended September 30, 2006 were $4.5 million, up from $1.7 million for the third quarter of last year. Net income for the third quarter increased to $2.2 million, up from $694,218 for the third quarter of 2005. Gross profit increased 153 percent to $2.7 million for this year's third quarter compared to $1.1 million for the same period last year. Diluted earnings per common share increased to $0.04 per share, on 51,680,993 diluted shares, for the third quarter of 2006, versus $0.01 per share, on 51,461,963 diluted shares, for the third quarter of 2005.

CEO Kevin Cassidy commented, "It is clear from the recent news headlines that there is increased interest in derivatives trading. And we feel that the best is yet to come for Optionable. Our record results for the third quarter have primarily been achieved through traditional means of service of delivery, voice-brokerage and open outcry. Our electronic platform, OPEX, which we recently introduced, will gain adherents in the energy commodities markets and, ultimately, with other commodities markets. The latest addition to our services offering, OPEX Analytics, enables us to offer a broader variety of solutions to satisfy our clients' needs. We certainly would not be where we are without providing consistent, timely, and outstanding quality services to our clients."

For the nine months ended September 30, 2006, Optionable reported that revenues increased to $9.2 million from $4.1 million for the first nine months of last year. Net income for the 2006 first nine months increased to $3.7 million compared to $996,795 for the prior year period. Gross profit increased 156 percent to $5.4 million for the first nine months of this year compared to $2.1 million for the same period last year. Diluted earnings per common share increased to $0.07 per share, on 51,688,736 diluted shares, for this year's nine-month period, versus $0.02 per share, on 51,449,427 diluted shares, for comparable period last year. As of September 30, 2006, the Company had cash and cash equivalents of $4.4 million.




OPBL has shown incredible strength and may in fact be overbought here, I would use our incremental approach here. Initiate a small portion of your desired position here and then monitor the shares for a dip that we can add on. Look for support levels at around $1.40 and $1.25.....


(sidenote) another player in the same space is NYFX....keep an eye on that one too.....


Related Industries: New Pick -

Initial Stock Price: $1.82

Here's where the volume came from today....

I profiled NGNM to my subscribers at www.insightertrading.com last night. Google "insightertrading.com" and you'll see some other quality growth stories we've been in. Just thought you fellow NGNM longs might want to point out any oversights in my analysis of the firm.

~~PASTE OF NGNM PROFILE @ $1.75~~
[11/8/2006] NGNM - Molecular diagnostics under the microscope...

01:43:43am
2006-11-08


The medical diagnostics business it a pretty boring industry. Certainly it lacks the compelling stories like clinical trials, big pharma buyouts, and FDA approvals. However, there is a segment of the industry that's on fire right now.

The industry as a whole can be drilled down to three segments:

Clinical Testing - This is what we're all familiar with. Low margins, and high volumes of simple blood and urine tests. These tests generate about $5-$30 in revenue per test and this segment is growing in the low single digits.

Anatomic Pathology - Many of us have had experience with this segment via Pap smears, skin biopsies, and tissue biopsies. These tests generate between $25 and $500 per test and the growth here is about 7% annually.

Genetic/Molecular Testing - This is the space that NGNM (Neogenomics) operates in. This segment involves analyzing chromosomes, genes or base pairs of DNA for disorders. Both genetic and molecular testing have become important and highly-accurate diagnostic tools over the last five years. New tests are being developed rapidly, thus this market segment is expanding rapidly. Genetic/molecular testing requires very specialized equipment and credentialed individuals (typically MD or PhD level) to certify the results and typically yields the highest average revenue per test of the three market segments. The tests NGNM performs for example yield between $200-$1,000 per test. In fact, in the first half of '06, NGNM's average revenue per test was $706.



So now that we know where NGNM is located in the spectrum of medical diagnostics, let's look for some evidence of the growth in this space. Before we look at NGNM's results, let's look at some of their competitors.

MYGN - Trading at $28.56 it's just pennies off of a new 52 week high. This $1billion market cap firm just smashed estimates and here's what they had to say about the molecular diagnostic market....

~~PASTE~~
43% Revenue Growth and 95% Operating Income Growth Highlight Molecular Diagnostic Business -

For the three-month period ended September 30, 2006, molecular diagnostic revenue increased to $30.9 million from $21.5 million in the same quarter of the prior year, an increase of 43%.

"We are very pleased with the continued growth in our molecular diagnostic business and the advances in moving our drug candidates towards the market," said Peter Meldrum, President and Chief Executive Officer of Myriad Genetics, Inc. "We believe that the remarkable growth in top-line revenues and the substantial improvement in operating profits are indicative of a vigorous, growing molecular diagnostic business."

~~END PASTE~~

Now let's take a look at what NGNM has recently said about it's markets...read closely....

~~PASTE~~

We have an opportunity to add additional types of tests to our product offering. We believe that by doing so we may be able to capture increases in our testing volumes through our existing customer base as well as more easily attract new customers via the ability to bundle our testing services more appropriately to the needs of the market. Until December 2004, we only performed one type of test, cytogenetics, in-house, which resulted in only one test being performed per customer requisition for most of FY 2004 and average revenue per requisition of approximately $490 in FY 2004. In December 2004, we added FISH testing to our product offering, and in February 2005, we began offering flow cytometry testing services. With the addition of these two new testing platforms, our average revenue/requisition increased by 35.6% in FY 2005 to approximately $632/requisition.

We believe this bundled offering approach could drive large increases in our revenue and afford us significant synergies and efficiencies in our operations and sales and marketing activities. For instance, initial testing for most hematological cancers may yield total revenue ranging from approximately $1,700 - $2,800/case and is generally comprised of one or more of the following tests: cytogenetics, fluorescence in-situ hybridization (FISH), flow cytometry, and morphology testing. Whereas in FY 2004, we only addressed approximately $500 of this potential revenue per case, we now address approximately $1,200 - $1,900 of this potential revenue per case.

~~END PASTE~~

So how is this "bundled" approach working for NGNM? Take a look at their last Quarterly....

~~PASTE~~


For the three months ended June 30, 2006 our revenues increased 413% to approximately $1,767,500 from approximately $344,900 in 2005. This was the result of a 353% increase in testing volume and a 13% increase in average revenue per test. For the six months ended June 30, 2006 our revenues increased 441% to approximately $3,111,300 from approximately $575,100 in 2005. This was the result of an increase in testing volume of 397% and a 9% increase in revenue per test. This volume increase is the result of wide acceptance of our bundled testing product offering and our industry leading turnaround times resulting in new customers. This increase in revenue per test is a direct result of restructuring arrangements with lower revenue per test and pricing policies with new customers.

~~END PASTE~~



Nice margins on this business too, and those margins will continue to ramp as revenue per test scales higher....

~~PASTE~~

As a result of the revenue and cost of revenue our gross profit percentage for the three months ended June 30, 2006 increased to 59% from 47% for the three months ended June 30, 2005. The gross profit percentage for the six months ended June 30, 2006 increased to approximately 58% from approximately 40% for the six months ended June 30, 2005.
~~END PASTE~~



And they just swung to profitablity to boot....

~~PASTE~~

As a result of the foregoing, our net income for the three months-ended June 30, 2006 increased approximately $342,600 to approximately $161,300 from a loss of approximately $181,400 during the three months-ended June 30, 2005. For the six months-ended June 30, 2006 net income increased approximately $664,200 to approximately $267,700 from a loss of approximately $396,500 during the six months-ended June 30, 2005.

~~END PASTE~~



Looks like a nice little growth story here for a company with a $40million dollar market cap, and about 10million shares in the float. Yes, 9 times sales is expensive, but it's mitigated if you factor in the 400% revenue growth year over year.

There's also this little nugget that was buried in the last paragraph of a press release from September when the firm announced their new bundled tests aimed at the oncology market dubbed "GPS"....

~~PASTE~~

"Overall, we are excited about the impact that we believe the GPS product will have on our growth rate in FY 2007. As we announced with our Q2 06 earnings release we plan to issue revised upward guidance for FY 2007 with our Q3 06 earnings release."

~~END PASTE~~

Never underestimate how surprised the market can be by information that a company has previously disclosed. It happens all the time. Now the stock has been trading higher into it's earnings call on Friday. The shares printed a fresh high today of $1.78 so it appears as if there is some money out there that remembers the revised guidance comment I pasted above.

Decent support at $1.40 and very firm support at $1.15.....








Related Industries: Health - New Pick - Overlooked Potential - Pharmaceutical -

Initial Stock Price: $1.75

I profiled FDRA last night....

Here's the profile I posted to my subscribers at www.insightertrading.com last night.....

FYI - Sunday night's was TIXC...so you FDRA'ers have something to look forward to hopefully....that one was posted at $2.15 and is currently $2.90 after touching $3.20 yesterday....



~~~PASTE OF FDRA PROFILE~~~
[11/1/2006] FDRA - The 'Blogosphere' is buzzing about web collaboration...

02:28:46am
2006-11-01


Making this one quick gang as it's time to catch a few hours sleep....


Foldera (FDRA) is about as speculative as a trade can get. The company has talked about a product-but only few have seen it. They have a market cap over $100million-and haven't had a dime in revenue. They missed their target date for their product release-and another target date is fast approaching.

Obvious question now is, why I'm I talking about FDRA? Let me point you to a few news stories (one from just yesterday afternooon) and we'll see if we can't put some puzzle pieces together....


~~PASTE PRESS EXCERPT #1~~
Google acquires wiki-builder JotSpot
01 November 2006

Google has bought JotSpot, a Silicon Valley start-up that helped pioneer the market for web-based business software like spreadsheets, in the latest move by the web search leader into an area dominated by Microsoft.



In a statement on the Mountain View, California-based company's website, JotSpot Co-Founder and Chief Executive Joe Kraus said his company had agreed to the merger following a series of moves by Google to provide competing software.

Financial terms of the deal were not disclosed.

Three-year-old JotSpot had developed a series of online productivity software programs that offer many of the functions of Microsoft Office programs like Microsoft Word or Excel spreadsheets. But instead of running on individual computers, JotSpot applications are delivered as web-based services.



~~~PASTE PRESS EXCERPT #2~~~
Google Office in the offing
The search engine wants you to write and store documents online for a simple reason: more room for advertisements.

by Om Malik, Business 2.0 Magazine senior writer

March 10, 2006: 11:03 AM EST

SAN FRANCISCO (Business 2.0 Magazine) - Google's acquisition of Upstartle, the Silicon Valley-based provider of Writely, a Web-based word processor, is the surest sign yet that the company plans to take on Microsoft in the market for office-productivity software.

Assembling an office

But that competition may be less of a grand plan to challenge Microsoft than a byproduct of Google's relentless need to expand its core business of selling online advertising.

Writely, featured in Business 2.0's recent list of 25 hot Internet startups reinventing the Web, lets users write documents with an interface similar to that of Microsoft Word, taking advantage of the Internet by letting users store and share documents online. Writely would take its place alongside Google's Gmail and CL2, an online calendar application that's in the works, forming the backbone of an office-productivity suite that would compete with Microsoft's Word and Outlook applications.



~~~END PASTE~~~


Clearly we are in an age of great technological change. I'm no industry expert, but you'd be hard pressed to find a guy who spends more time online and reading about emerging trends than yours truly. The explosion of start-ups and innovations in the "Web 2.0" space is truly unprecedented and IMHO, could be the new catalyst for future productivity gains in our economy.

And what are the buzzwords lately in the Web 2.0 blogosphere?

Web Apps

Collaboration

Organization

Synchronization


It's no coincidence that these are also the buzzwords one could use to describe FDRA's model. In the CEO's own words....

~~~PASTE~~~

"Foldera is the next generation Information Organizer."

"Outlook, Lotus Notes and Palm are examples of old-fashioned Information Organizers. Foldera is the new, next generation Information Organizer."

"Users of legacy Organizers do the sorting and filing manually and they do it after the fact -- which means they waste a lot of time and their digital info isn't organized in real time. Users of these systems are never in sync with the people they work with because everyone organizes their work at different times. They cost a lot of money too. The basic version of Foldera is free"

"Our users open a folder for each one of their projects or activities and then invite in other Foldera users to collaborate and share information within the context of that single activity. Our technology makes it possible for our users to launch their email, instant messaging, calendar, document and task management tools right from within each folder. Everyone involved in the project or activity uses their tools just like they normally do, so there's nothing new to learn. Then, in the background, the Foldera folders sort and file everything instantly, all on a project-by-project basis. This means that the email, instant message dialogs and documents related to each of your projects are grouped together in chronological order, in one centralized location that you can access from wherever you are, and it's all done automatically. Foldera users will never have to sort and file digital information into folders ever again!


~~~END PASTE~~~

OK. So FDRA is in the right space, an especially timely space given the news today that GOOG bought JotSpot. There is no debate that FDRA's application will generate a buzz when it's released.

That's the problem though. Moreover, that's why FDRA's share price has been suffering putting in lows recently of $1.10 (which should be our stop out BTW). The software was supposed to be rolled out to thousands of beta testers in Q2, but that date slipped.

Now FDRA is saying that a wide beta rollout will occur on November 24th. This is when the Blog buzz will start getting louder. How can I be so sure of the Blog world's coverage of FDRA?

A) they are really the only publicly traded Web 2.0 pureplay

B) they just hired one of the Tech World's most quoted bloggers. Marc Orchant formerly of ZDNet has recently joined FDRA as VP of Marketing. There really isn't anyone on the net right now, that get's copied and pasted around more sites than Orchant. Do a Google search on him. Better yet, do a blog search. See how many hits you get....It should be in the thousands.

http://blogsearch.google.com/blogsearch?hl=en



In summary, we've got some catalysts:

GOOG buying JotSpot
Guaranteed Internet Buzz for the Nov. 24th expanded beta test
Official product launch in Q1 '07
First ever revenues in Q1 '07
Only traded Web 2.0 pure play
Stock coming off of a triple bottom at around $1.10
Recently sold $4million worth of stock at $1.08 (raised over $9million total in Q3 in two tranches - $4.3mill @ $2.25/share and $5mill @ $1.08/share


One last little tidbit...Here's a comment that was just posted tonight by Marc Orchant on a different blog than his own....

~~~PASTE ORCHANT BLOG POST~~~
"as the aforementioned VP of Marketing for Foldera and a friend and fan of Ben McConnell's and Jackie Huba's work, I can assure you that WOM (word of mouth) is a critical component in our launch and marketing strategies. Based on the feedback we've had from our current beta testers and the people we've shown what we're building at conferences over the past few months, I think we'll get a lot of people talking as we roll Foldera out to more users this fall."






Related Industries: Long Term - New Pick - Tech -

Initial Stock Price: $1.25

The October comp. will be up more than 100% year over year. That being said, with the move this thing has put on since I put it on my site at $2.15, I don't know if it's got much juice left here.

I told my subs to lighten up yesterday morning at $3.20.

I have since found out that all the shares from the PIPE they did back in Q2 are RESTRICTED, so that should help sustain this bull run.

One would hate to see folks who bought shares at $.25/ in a PIPE liquidating those shares here....so at least that's one thing we don't have to worry about....

Head's up on TIXC......


Remember, they always PR the year over year comps for the previous month in the first week of the new month. We should see triple digit growth again for October '06 over October '05.

Rig....perhaps that post didn't come out right...I was simply letting you know where today's volume explosion was coming from, I was NOT attempting to take credit for the call on your board. My apologies if that's how it sounded. Rick.