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And so you agree, the financial condition of Elite that is important is that it is profitable! Of course, because that is the absolute goal of any company.
In fact, it is the ability to adapt that determines success. Elite adapted. Similarly, BRK and Apple are examples of how companies with narrow focus adapted in light of microenvironmental factors and, ultimately, achieved profitability. Elite has achieved financial success and is building on it. To be absolutely clear, it is that financial success that is the basis for Elite's actions going forward.
Thus, Hanlon's Razor is checkmated by Partial Equilibrium Fallacy!
At what point will Elite's need for cash at the time be acknowledged? They could not access shares to sell to LPC because it was under 10 cents; which is why LPC-3 had a basement of 3 cents. Notice how the share price dropped at the time and has remained in a trough? But, hey, nothing to see here.
All too many focus on the past. Not sure what anyone knows about business, but strategy is about achieving tomorrow's goals. What is past is not prologue. Get over it.
Good post. It is remarkable that Elite, this small company on the OTC, has found an audience pushing sheer unmitigated sophistry.
How does it make sense that non-investors should be trying so hard for so long?
I think we investors should make sure Nasrat knows, we know, about the lawsuit...and have related questions.
How does a company get an approval and see its share price go down and drive the market cap lower than annual revenues and people say - Nothing to see here!
Well, one company experienced enough of it and, just perhaps, what they have in their lawsuit may foretell some of what frustrated shareholders see with Elite.
Here it is...NWBO...
Here’s the skinny. The company is accusing Citadel Securities, Susquehanna and “other Wall Street firms of driving down its stock price through a series of illicit trading tactics.” It also includes Canaccord Genuity, G1 Execution Services, GTS Securities, Instinet, Lime Trading and Virtu Americas.
According to the Wall Street Journal:
“In a lawsuit filed Thursday in Manhattan federal court, Northwest Biotherapeutics Inc. NWBO alleged the market makers had repeatedly engaged in ‘spoofing,’ where traders place orders with an intent to fool other investors about a stock’s demand and manipulate the price by removing the offers.”
When dealing with data and evidence that supports a premise, I always look for "tells". You know, reasons to believe or not the negativity aimed at Elite and its CEO. What else do we have to weigh and make judgments about but what is written?
10 Years of tanure, so I dicided to probe this board about it
So, there is no hard evidence? No data about the trusting CEOs who have delivered profitability while on the OTC, like Nasrat has for Elite? Am I surprised? Not in the least. Strong opinions are fine, but data is the sine qua non of evidence.
Simply providing a company name tells us nothing about the key points...1) are they profitable like Elite? 2) what makes their CEOs trustworthy?
Fireman...
I absolutely agree, BP long ago used to spend about 18-20% of revenues on R&D but they now barely crack double digits and the reason is what you alluded to - it is less expensive to buy a smaller firm. And, if you think about it, there are dollars and sense (not a misspelling) to the concept. They have the ability to complete trials, gain FDA approval, manufacture and commercialize because they have the infrastructure in place and possess the competencies to get it all done more efficiently and effectively than the smaller firms...plus, they have the bank!
Really?
Some good OTC companies WITH TRUSTWORTHY CEOs are on the market(street) radar
flip, The past is not prologue. The company was never in this position before. Without getting too far over her skis, Powers can wrap herself with the "safe harbor" statement to be more forthcoming than in the past. (I have been known to remind CEOs of that, not that they listen.)
There is no "Street" for the OTC, which is retail investors. The "Street" signifies institutional investing. Bikes v. automobiles!
Fireman,
According to Boston Consulting Group, less than 25% of all pharma partnerships between big and small companies are considered successful. Interestingly, this number is not much different than the success rate of M&A (despite what some may think). As a result, it is not merely due diligence but effective negotiations that can take many months from start to finish. I expect that NWBO began the process with a discussion predicted on "when" and now that the "when" has arrived they are finishing up the "how" and that includes payment, milestones, parameters, and all other contractual obligations.
Amidst all the noise about what the ASM will or will not reveal, the timing suggests more rather than less information will be shared. But it will always stop short of the biggest revelations that some expect and, when not forthcoming, argue it was no big deal. As is said, the devil is in the details.
Softball pitch...
what do u think is the cause for the poor PPS performance???
Nonsense...
If that's the case THE PPS SHOULD FALTER EVEN MORE
I get creeped out when I see things that are gross, not in a 144 sort of way, but in hurling epithets about the name of Elite's CEO that border on the misapprehension of ethnicity that is the basis for Nasrat's name.
I find it interesting when out of the blue someone seeks to degrade and denigrate a company like Elite with such certainty and, yet, has displayed little knowledge of the history of the firm nor any indication of what brought the company from near BK to profitability. Funny how that happens!
I do not recall any investors asking to be saved. Did I miss something?
bio...Nice post and thanks for further informing the points I made about vertical integration and its limitations.
hoffmann, just a quick comment to agree with you about a merger between a CDMO and a biopharma company. Bigger picture...
In reverse order: 1) it does not improve the value of NWBO for an ultimate acquisition by a BP. The BPs are not in the CDMO business and would sell it off; which reduces rather than increases the value of NWBO to a BP; and 2) There is no answer to how it improves a partnership because it would not.
I understand the seeming magic of the Advent/NWBO merger resulting in uplisting, but it really is nothing more than financial engineering (alchemy) that, again, does not result in a long term benefit, as that alone, without any RA approvals, would find the share price under attack.
One more thing...I have said this ad nauseam but it remains true for NWBO investors...We do not want a buyout now. We want partnerships and not just any. My guess is Merck's approach to a partnership would be for a limited partnership between the two firms. That would be a mistake, NWBO should not allow themselves to be limited; particularity not if we consider the agnostic potential.
Don't shoot the messenger...I was just relaying what the WSJ article said. But, I agree with the sentiment. What was interesting about the quote I included was this...
Citadel has myriad portfolio managers running their own books of investments within risk limits the firm sets and monitors.
You are spot on about Paul...I employed "editorial license" on his quote.
Enjoy the snow and family, happy holidays!
Ah, Citadel! As the late, great Paul Harvey would say, "There is the rest of the story."
Very noticeable revenues...
Citadel’s flagship fund gained about 32% for the year through November, benefiting from bets across the firm’s strategies. The gains Citadel and the others have notched are all the more noteworthy in a year in which the S&P 500 was down a total 18.5% through Tuesday and a traditional portfolio made up of 60% global stocks and 40% U.S. bonds, including dividends, has lost about 16%, according to Dow Jones Market Data. Billionaire Kenneth Griffin‘s Citadel has myriad portfolio managers running their own books of investments within risk limits the firm sets and monitors. Miami-based Citadel has returned some profits most years in the recent past but rarely this much; in the five prior years, it returned more than $11 billion to clients in total.
This is a clarifying admission...
I can’t imagine
Although the "science guys" step on my "business guy" toes while wandering into a business discussion, given the paucity of discussion, I will treat this as the business question it is.
So...If investors recall, Nasrat said he had not given up on opioids. I deign to spend the time going back into past CCs, but it is there. Very clearly enunciated. Like all things, timing matters.
As for fentanyl, that is an entirely different mess. Apples and acorns!
It is the classic "prisoners dilemma!"
FeMike, as I am sure you recall, I thought you provide an important voice for the board. In the truest sense, you are an effective devil's advocate (for anyone unfamiliar with the genesis of that term, it is the Catholic Church and given to the individual who "prosecutes" the case against making a person a saint). However, as to there being "no excuse" for NWBO's current silence, of course there is. Whether a partnership/licensing, JV (structurally different than a partnership/licensing), or M&A, the proceedings necessitate silence or risk jeopardizing the process. I would point to the silence in the run up to the JAMA article that few could only understand as an element of failure. Alas, a misapprehension of the truth. Patience!
bio, from what I have seen, academic researchers of all stripes engage in a zero sum assessment of their work in contrast to that of others.
Zero-sum is a situation, often cited in game theory, in which one person’s gain is equivalent to another’s loss, so the net change in wealth or benefit is zero. A zero-sum game may have as few as two players or as many as millions of participants. In financial markets, options and futures are examples of zero-sum games, excluding transaction costs.
You are correct, it is different fruit but fruit nonetheless and focusing on size is a mistake, it is the process employed by the spoofers that is the issue. Let me explain...
At its essence, what spoofing with both ELTP & NWBO was trying to achieve...Chapter 7 liquidation. We can argue about the reasons, but it remains that this would result in no need to return the borrowed short shares, with ancillary benefits to others. We have seen small firms shorted, put out of business and their IP bought by another firm at pennies. I recall one firm with revenues greater than the price paid for their IP upon Chapter 7 liquidation.
Moreover, by driving the share price low and continuing to keep it there, we know that both ELTP & NWBO, being unable to borrow and relying on shares to pay to keep the lights on, had to sell their shares at a lower than low price. For Elite it prevented access to shares when under the 10 cent basement. If not for the partnership with SunGen and the subsequent pivot to CNS drugs, a pivot that critics of Nasrat fail to acknowledge as strategic and essential to survival, Elite would be out of business.
Now let's address the other benefits of spoofing. The spoofing by the agents of these big firms were focused on generating revenues for their companies. Think a gold mine generating revenues. The cost of capital for seeking the gold is a constant, what is variable are the veins found. Some are small and some are large. When you come across the small ones and the harvesting is easy you will continue along that effort, even if the ROI is small, because you can. That is Elite for spoofers. And if you continue to have small but consistent returns from a number of veins of gold, the effort makes sense to continue as long as no events occur to prevent the mining.
As for a breakout to the upside...I provide logic for what I say, whether one agrees with me or not. But, what is the logic for the breakout to the upside?
There is an orphan drug provision that gives them extra years from time of approval
Governments are trying to stimulate drug R&D for unmet health needs with public policies. Most of them target intellectual property because market-exclusivity (ME) period supported by patents protects new drug from direct competition and allows the return of investment. However, the patent holder does not receive commercial benefit until the product has been market approved (MA). Regulatory agencies provide exclusivity extensions for patented drugs, to compensate for patent life that is lost during the lengthy drug R&D and regulatory process. A contribution made in drug regulation has been to incentivize the development of Orphan Drugs (OD) for rare diseases through ME as policy measure. The ME is granted by the Food & Drug Administration (FDA) for 7 years upon MA. The ME provision is stronger than a patent: it cannot be interrupted by a competitor even if the underlying patent has expired.
The question of Elite's share price being manipulated has been debated for some period of time and the forces at play discussed. Interestingly, investors should be aware that a major lawsuit has been filed against Canaccord Genuity LLC, Citadel Securities LLC, G1 Execution Services LLC, GTS Securities LLC, Instinet LLC, Lime Trading Corp., Susquehanna International Group LLP, Virtu Americas LLC, alleging that the defendants used spoofing to interfere with NWBO’s share price. The defendants are accused of violating Section 10(b), Rule 10b-5 and Section 9(a)(2) of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, and of fraud under New York state common law.
A couple of interesting points worth making are that, as the legal process of discovery unfolds, it is possible that evidence could be found that shows criminal intent and, if so, could subject those companies (and their agents) to criminal penalties under the federal conspiracy laws (RICO & CCE). Moreover, if spoofing has occurred, it is unlikely to have been isolated to one OTC firm. Consequently, it is possible that evidence is discovered that pertains to other small companies that have suspected their share price was similarly manipulated.
Naturally, these big financial firms have much to lose and have cross-filed. But it does not derail the discovery process born of the initial lawsuit by NWBO, which is represented by a major firm with long success in winning such cases. Not only should this story be followed by ELTP investors, but the matter should be brought to the attention of Elite's management and BOD for consideration.
Really?
So glad I dont have a position in this stock yet
Ah yes, recovering lost valor...
Appreciate the DD. While I was enjoying a glass of wine, how many were feverishly googling any small BP buyout.
I named two...
Here are couple more...
Below, Allergan acquired Tobira...
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-tobira-m-a-allergan-idUSKCN11Q1IF
And, Roche acquired Ignyta...
https://www.biopharminternational.com/view/roche-aquire-ignyta-17-billion-deal-0
A little DD about BP would find that rather than spending 18-20% of revenues on R&D, they found it cheaper to acquire...https://www.baybridgebio.com/blog/rd_bigpharma_startup.html#:~:text=In%20recent%20years%2C%20big%20pharma%20has%20increasingly%20relied,balance%20sheet%2C%20which%20isn%27t%20sustainable.%20Fighting%20Eroom%27s%20Law
A song for Elite's shareholders to hum along with...
No reason to buy? Why do people buy shares in a company? Is it only about meme BS like GME or AMC? Companies that saw their p/s run high and, yet, they are not only unprofitable, but if anyone is paying attention, they are closing some businesses and continuing to face the reality of fewer revenues. But, people buy their shares because...?
So, why would no one buy Elite for the next six months? Really, six months? In that time Elite will report increasing revenues and continued profitability. That is why people are supposed to buy shares in a company. Investing in a company is not about some new thing/product being churned out every quarter. It is about revenues turning to profits Q-Q!
Elite's share price does not reflect any form of investing reality...its market cap is only about 90% of its revenues! Try that one on for size!
That effectively captures the possibilities. Well done!
Has the SEC ever had a major internal whistle blower?
The Securities and Exchange Commission today announced awards of approximately $110 million and $4 million to two whistleblowers whose information and assistance led to successful SEC and related actions. With these awards, the SEC's whistleblower program has now paid more than $1 billion in awards to 207 whistleblowers, including over $500 million in fiscal year 2021 alone. The $110 million award stands as the second-highest award in the program's history, following the over $114 million whistleblower award the SEC issued in October 2020.
As a kid, I was decidedly a one-marshmallow, bird in the hand person. But education and experience has transformed me into a two-marshmallow sort of guy. So it is that I will continue to press my business (and negotiations) experienced narrative for consideration...
1. According to the most recently-available statistics, about 95 percent of pending lawsuits end in a pre-trial settlement. This means that just one in 20 cases is resolved in a court of law by a judge or jury. It also means that planning for a pre-trial settlement is a crucial component of any sound legal strategy. In fact, many seasoned personal injury plaintiffs use the bulk of the pre-trial preparation period to build a case that entices their opponents into settling for a favorable sum.
Despite the noise about nailing the culprits to the wall - civilly and criminally - the "bad guys" attorneys know the exposure and will be the first to suggest a BATNA. https://www.pon.harvard.edu/daily/batna/translate-your-batna-to-the-current-deal/
2. Despite the hopes for a buyout, it does not make sense at this time. Beyond limitations it creates for NWBO shareholders/stakeholders, partnerships reduce risk for an acquirer and that is what big companies are concerned with - risk! For example, Roche was the majority shareholder of Genentech before they bought them in 2009 (for cash), as they held 56% of shares. Interestingly, it is Roche's acquired cancer drugs that are going off-patent and creating a need for revenue producing drugs. Also, with BMY looking to do a trial with DCVax and with the potential that DCVax might provide an agnostic approach, why in the world would shareholders of NWBO want anything but a set of partnerships?
Relatedly, the thinking that Merck would pay with shares does not understand how to acquire an expensive business. Debt is cheaper than equity, even today. Moreover, looking at Merck's authorized share count of 6.5 B and their O/S of 3.577 B, with a current share price of about $108, Merck would have to issue too many shares and it would leave ~ 21% in remaining A/S. This is problematic as big companies seek to retain ~ 20% of A/S for compensation, stock awards. Admittedly, they have not done a buyback since 2017 and that is always possible. But I think no buyout of NWBO right now and never with shares.
Elite's truth? They are Profitable!
Individuals create their own "subjective reality" from their perception of the input. An individual's construction of reality, not the objective input, may dictate their behavior in the world.