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Me too.
If it takes 6-9 months to complete the work then I think we're actually looking at spring to early summer next year for results.
Then with the way things move around here, maybe late 2015(calendar) for initiation of human trials if all goes well.
Looks like Arch's 'wake me in 2016' was in the ballpark. Tox initiation will put a floor on the price but I expect the typical spike/selloff pattern when the initiation of the studies are announced.
Where's the Tox announcement to pull the brakes on this sled???
Ebola chasing won't make a difference in my opinion. The next actual milestones of merit will be Tox initiation and completion, and human testing of flucide.
Unless something unexpected happens I see a bottom level of 3.50 and a top of 4.20. I think its going to take the Tox initiation to break that upper range, and delays beyond September 30 to break the bottom. It'd be nice to get some communication on the timeline sooner than later if they are not going to initiate the Tox assessment in the next 3o days.
I think the next thing we'll officially see from Management is the 10k or an extension for filing the financials. I think the company gets 75 days from June 30, being mid-Sept. target.
I think it will be disclosed in the 10-k, likely in the section for subsequent events. The financial statements are audited and if some internet detectives can dig up the case results the C.P.A.s ought to be able to.
Sitting on a significant gain even at 4. Not concerned currently, waiting for developments and Tox initiation announcement. May adjust my position pending fundamental changes.
It'll be in the Financials Bunny. They'll make a disclosure; might be lawyerspeak in the most favorable terms but it'll be there.
You know what won't be there, the 'criminal investigations' the whambulance chasing legal firms advertised after the Seeking Alpha hack piece. Cause there was no 'investigation', it was simple advertising by attorneys trying to drum up business. Stating otherwise then and now is grasping for straws.
Materiality is the key word.
Public companies trading on the NYSE routinely disclose the outcome of relevant/material legal proceedings in their financial statements.
I do not think it is likely a material event, or that it will even be in the ball park of going concern.This case has been previously discussed within the Company's financials and that's where I expect to see it discussed again, likely in the section on subsequent events.
Under what provision is the company required to disclose this settlement with a press release?
You presume it was a 'material' settlement.
You presume this will not be disclosed in the pending financial statements as a subsequent event.
Someone's interested at 3.95....
No Tox, stock continues the drop.
Who's going to stop the bleeding?
Ebola announcement was a sell the news event.
Need announcement of real progress (Tox) or I think we drift lower. Relationships/ new research programs do not improve the Company's prospects if they cannot demonstrate capability to move one drug through necessary clinical requirements. Lab announcement was baked in. I think Tox initiation may be too. Doubt the SP cracks 5.50 again by the end of the year.
Can't believe its been nearly a year of waiting for the same announcement. I made similar posts last summer.
Still looking for a Tox announcement before I get too excited about what 'should' happen in Australia.
Hope this new work does not delay production of flucide for Tox by even a microgram.
Bought some more around $4. Was nice to see a quick spike. But where do we go from here. Need a Tox announcement or this Ebola 'news' will be like the Cox effect...
Inside One of the U.S.'s Biggest-Ever Investment-Fraud Stings
FBI's Operation Pennypincher Targets Murky World of Penny Stocks, a Haven 'Rife With Fraud'
m.us.wsj.com/articles/inside-one-of-the-u-s-s-biggest-ever-investment-fraud-stings-1404700281?mobile=y
At $2 this may not have been in play. However as we drift lower who knows what may happen at JBII.
This investigation was going on in 2010...wonder what .gov is looking at now?!??
This is not new information.
The question remains when....I think that is reasonably estimable. I understand that they are working under production constraints but they should be able to make a reasonable estimate.
I think Q2 was thrown out. I do think this will occur before year-end but there still seems to be significant roadblocks ahead.
The warrant extension gives me more heartburn than the Tox hold-up but still think we have an exciting few months coming up.
Volatility for certain but things still looking to be progressing.
When does Tox start? This is reasonably estimable at this point, if not things are not as far along as we may believe.
When will they complete negotiations for the purchase of the building? The controlling interests of both companies seem to be made up of the same players.
Why extend the warrants again? What benefit does this provide current shareholders? How does this not off-set risk from warrant holders onto current shareholders.
Time to move along Management. Seems like somebody's dragging their heels...
From the PR:
The Company intends to begin the safety/toxicology studies of this Injectable FluCide™ drug candidate as soon as feasible, and is producing sufficient drug substance for these studies at its existing facility.
It's time to get on with the safety/Toxicology studies. I agree the rise does not have anything to do with the company's milestones at this point. If it gets overheated without announcements there is potential for a sell-off.
The longer Management takes to initiate the studies the less favorable the risk reward gets as an investor; delays equal same or more risk and less reward (dengue comp discussed last week). I am surprised they have not put forth an announcement regarding timing. I think the required amount is known and should be reasonably estimable by Management. Hell put out the worst case timeline and make sure you meet it. There are always unknown delays but that sentence has been in too many of the announcements going back some time now.
I think if some announcements are made over the course of next few weeks the price can rise it least to where it was last fall.
Good luck to all longs!
Worst Luck- thanks for posting this. This looks like competition in one of NNVC's markets, and much farther along.
Where's the toxicity studies? Any analysts familiar with the sector and a bit of DD will ask the same question today. It is nice to see this rise but timing is everything.
The press releases I am interested in relate to the facility and the initiation of required regulatory studies. I think it will take 6-9 months to complete the studies and imagine there will be lag between completion and clinical trials, so right now Q2 calendar 15 looks reasonable but will it matter if VRTX completes a phase 3 successfully by that time? Read their PR and blurbs on the website but cannot tell how much more effective the drug is than current standard of care.
Being short at the moment. Except I'm in the same boat as you.
Seems to be a lot of work going into "ferreting" out whatever is at the bottom of this "rathole". Maybe a "source" close to NNVC will come up with something more relevant than three year old information.
I think all that a source, ferret, rat, whatever you want to call them will find, if they actually get to the heart of the matter is progress towards the company's goals.
When's the Tox announcement?
When's the lab announcement?
Granted those are probably baked into the SP but...a run of announcements through the fall leading to Tox results and the initiation of human clinical trials will move the price.
If the price goes under 3.50/3.40 I'll add. Unless something fundamentally changes if it were to go lower I'd add. Too much coming down the pipe not to.
"That's only "industry approach" with questionable drugs"
No that's industry practice because Big Pharma is risk averse. The odds of a drug clearing regulatory standards are much higher after phase 2a. That is the point where big pharma is more comfortable with the risk. Drug development, including NNVC, is inherently risky.
Poor analogy.
In the example the poker game ends in one night. At this point the holdings of vanguard could have increased. If things go the way I think they will then Vanguard continues to up their exposure over the coming months. Yet they'll still never be playing with whatever hypothetical amount is in their bank account.
An institution will never go all in on any one security.
Cheers LoanRanger.
I do appreciate your efforts. Very thorough analysis with exceptional attention to detail, especially considering governance and required filings.
I was disappointed by the quality of the interview last year. Nothing groundbreaking came out of it. However, at the time it could have been interesting to someone looking to initiate a new position, long or short, if that was their first to hear about NNVC.
Kind regards
I could really care less about Tobin Smith. I was disappointed by the video itself last year because nothing new was aired out in the video. Long term followers/holders/shorters were aware of pretty much everything discussed.
I found Tobin's interview technique to be lacking at best. To much like he was talking at his interview candidate and at the audience, instead of actually digging out any new information.
I agree.
Any word on whether the "source" was exposed? Or just plain unreliable?
45 institutional investors ccompared to how many a year ago?
A significant change in institutional ownership quarter over quarter is now a bad thing?
I am sorry I would hope Vanguard is well diversified and manages their risks by not overweighting any one stock in any one fund or in aggregate across their family of funds. I invest in a few of their funds and am quite pleased with their approach.
In the context of any one institution of course the holdings of NNVC are likely to be small. However in the context of NNVC, a significant increase in institutional ownership is a good sign from here.
Of course there are still risks investing in NNVC. But the light at the end of the tunnel is getting bigger and brighter day by day.
So 45 institutions holding means exactly zilch? When that ownership increased significantly from Q1 to Q2?
Here's the link again in case you want to go directly to the source.
http://www.nasdaq.com/symbol/nnvc/institutional-holdings
"if anybody outside of Joe Sixpacks gave a shit about this"
Do Vanguard, Goldman, UBS, Deutsche bank, et. al count as Joe Six pack shareholders?
I've provided a link in case anyone needs to question the source.
http://www.nasdaq.com/symbol/nnvc/institutional-holdings
We're obviously seeing different interpretations of what has transpired due to our own internal biases.Maybe the "source" can fill in what was actually communicated...
Sounds like "they said we're not going to come back until you do Phase 2a trials"
If the pharmas approached/approach NNVC it will be up to the company to tell them to take a hike. Not the other way round.
4theduration,
Wholeheartedly agree. And the results are entirely up to Management.
Maybe your 'source' can provide more info...lol
Let's not kid ourselves. We all know it doesn't matter whether the plastic is washed or unwashed. This company is not going to do anything that will move the share price up anytime soon. I'd be surprised if the share price ever touches a quarter again.
Dc2,
what would you say are the main concerns and reasons holding you back from going short NNVC at this point in time?
Rawnoc,
Not worried about it in the least. Announcement regarding Tox commencement is forthcoming, as we all know.
Good luck bud!
Could one or more of the accumulators be a short?
Dr.K- some here claimed before that a 3% drop was a crash. I guess 2% could be a crash if that's the way you see it. But like you I think 2-3 is laughable and just the volatility of NNVC.
News next week?
I would assume he would've released his series sooner. Strike while the iron is hot.
However maybe he is accumulating another position collaboratively with other shorts?
Maybe he's waiting to see how the legal action plays out? Releasing another conjecture laden shill piece during legal proceedings might hurt the 'cause'?
Onus on management to deliver which will mitigate effects of collaborative short attacks....JMHO
Care to elaborate?
Really neato that longs are down 40%+ since April Fools.
Never wrong on alternative energy dumps. Get out now while you can. This sleds got nowhere to go but DOWN.
Next Friday is May 30; there are 31 days in May. Quarter end is June 30.
We'll see what happens in June. I doubt there'll be news next week after a holiday.
Doubt NNVC releases anything about CHIKV anytime soon. Plenty to do and plenty of other forthcoming news releases.
One good turn deserves another...
This things going to the dump; we all know it. Doesn't look like there will be any sales so hypothetical talk about margins is hogwash.
Another penny down and 8% loss. That loss percentage will get progressively worse as each penny falls. But it will all come to a stop at the big 0.
Good luck to the longs. Hope something turns around for you.
CFO probably bit off more than he wanted to chew when he jumped in here. Must be a mess.
You can't apologize for something you haven't done. We have a difference of understanding and opinion.
The proof will ultimately be in the pudding or lack thereof.
No rain on my parade, 65° and sunny here and two days out from a long weekend.