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Also picked up a few under .24. Seems like a deal with two wells very close to coming online in March. Output will double in the next few weeks. 2 producing wells to 13 this year!
US ngas prices are not connected to what Trillion will receive but I think it does impact investor psychology. Ngas bounced from several year low and some traders probably decided the bounce was over and took profits. We are pretty much done with winter and aside from Freeport ramping up last train, there won't be an increase in LNG exports this year. This year ngas prices in the US will be weak. But more LNG plants are on the way and longer term, the future looks bright.
Europe is happy but they had full Russian ngas for the first half of 2022 to help fill their storage. This year, they won't have much Russian gas to help fill storage. We'll see how they do and if traders panic again and bid prices to the moon. Probably won't be a repeat of last year but I think there is still a chance of higher Euro ngas. AND Trillion is in the right place at the right time.
Sorry for the late reply. I was not familiar with Pantheon. I listened to most of the 2 hr podcast they had on their recent results. Never seen a company put out such a long explanation. Obviously at 500+million market cap, this is not a small company. They obviously have some big money betting that they are right and they can bring in substantial production from the North Slope. The chart is very good since you asked about the stock. Hope you have some.
The issue that they spent hours explaining is why they hit so much gas in their latest test well. Obviously they are very sensitive to the topic otherwise they wouldn't have spent two hours going over and over it. This worries me. Any time a company has to spend so much time explaining an issue, it's obviously a worry for the markets. The North Slope is far away from user markets. Lots of ngas is NOT what they are looking for. They want light sweet crude that can fill up a mostly empty Trans Alaska Pipeline. They emphasized over and over again how close they are to the Pipeline and the Dawson Highway. So IF they can drill multiple wells and IF it's a high percentage of light sweet crude, this is a big project in a world that doesn't have many places to go besides the Permian Basin.
The cost of the wells is in the high teens of millions so this isn't going to be cheap drilling. They fracked the test well so they need service companies and infrastructure that probably isn't there. Of course if they got a big oil company to jv with them, the service companies would probably spend the time and capital to go up to the North Slope with equipment and source the sand and water.
If you look at the 1 yr chart, the market has been selling this project off. The peak price for the stock was $1.99 in early 2022 so the market cap was US$1.5 billion! versus US$500+million now. So it's not a slam dunk.
I worry about the oil/gas mix, the remote location and the need for big money to step in. I didn't hear that they intend to develop this project themselves. I think they spent all that time on the podcast because they need to convince some deep pockets that this will work. They do have 100% of these projects so that's great. They do have room to give a JV partner a significant share and still retain a decent share for themselves. I am not that familiar with the players that already are working in the North Slope so don't know who their target JV partner might be. Is the project big enough for a new player to step in? Probably. They are talking hundreds of millions of barrels.
For me, this is already fairly expensive and the market isn't terribly enthusiastic about the project. The shares have been positive this year and I do think we need more oil for the intermediate term. World use of oil isn't going away soon enough and yet big oil is paying dividends rather than spending money to look for new oil. Personally I would pass but it could turn out to be a big project but it's probably a few years away and I'm too old to wait! LOL! Good luck and again sorry for the delay in response.
Hi Checkmate, MOLY
Never quite got it right. Used mostly for steel hardening. In order for Moly to thrive, we need a booming world economy that is demanding a lot of steel. I don't think that is happening soon. Did CPM group highlight a significant supply shortfall in Moly? Otherwise, I don't think it's going to take off.
The other problem with MOLY is the relative scarcity of Moly only mines. With the time frames required to discover, drill out and get a mine approved and financed, it's hard to hit a window when MOLY prices will be continuously strong. It's definitely a minor metal but I can't remember a significant MOLY mine coming line either.
Yeah, I'd rather see them drill some of the prospects and hit another SASB field than buy back or pay dividends. Short sighted.
PTRUF/PRQ.TO US$1.77
Petrus Energy is a Canadian energy company. I like this one because of the financial results so far, projections for next year AND the mgmt.
Petrus changed mgmt in 2021. Ken Gray took over as CEO. They wanted to increase production but their bank was not helpful so they refinanced their debt. Ken and his brothers put in a tremendous amount of equity resulting in 74% insider ownership. In addition one of the brothers loaned the company $25million for three years in a second lien position to the bank that provides Petrus with a revolving line of credit. In addition to the tremendous equity contribution, Don Gray is the largest shareholder and Chairman, holding 34% of the common shares. Don Gray is also founder and CEO of Peyto,. a natural gas producer that started out as a penny stock and is now a 2.2 billion dollar major in Canadian natural gas production.
Petrus has 122 million shares outstanding.
In the latest Q3 report, Petrus averaged 6,639boepd at 71% gas and 29% liquids. Petrus is projecting exiting 2022 at 10,500boepd.
Guiding for $130-135million capex in 2023 allowing the company to average 13,000 to 13,500boepd. That should result in a 75% increase in production in 2023 as well as a 65% increase in cashflow to C$140-150million depending on commodity prices.
Petrus's main production comes from the Ferrier fields in Alberta. In addition to substantial acreage, Petrus owns the processing facilities for their production.
Petrus has low debt of C$48million. In addition to Ferrier they have substantial acreage positions in Thorsby and Foothills with steady, low decline production. They also have drilling sites in Kakwa which are oil heavy and represent future growth. Petrus focuses on high payback wells that payoff drilling costs within 6 months. They are a leader in this drilling metric.
Petrus is already a success story, starting with an C$.81 share price a year ago vs C$2.44 now. 52week hi was c$3.42. I missed this stock in 2021 but with a double in production coming in 2023, this should still take off.
The change in lending and decrease in debt allowed Petrus to rapidly expand production.
Energy stocks have been leading the market all year. My biggest position is Trillion Energy, TRLEF. Drilling into known reservoirs in the Black Sea off 5 existing offshore platforms. These cost hundreds of millions to build but have been paid for by previous production from the field. Trillion is just drilling known gas locations and getting paid $30/mcf! compared to $7/mcf in the US. First two wells were drilled and completed. Flowing gas at 3.3MMCFPD to Trillion. Pipelines to shore and onshore gas processing plant are already there. Takes 45 days/well to drill, complete and turn to revs. It's going to take a few months to get real numbers, cashflow and eventually profits but Trillion has 17 wells mapped out to drill in 2023 and 2024. Beyond that, they have several prospects that are very similar to the field they are now drilling. They will explore those once first 17 wells are drilled and producing. Here is latest presentation:
https://trillionenergy.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/11/Trillion_Energy_Intl_Corporate_Presentation_NOV_2022-V5.pdf
In addition to Trillion, I have mostly bigger energy producers. VET and Serica(SQL.L) are plays on European energy crisis but have faded lately due to Euro excess profits taxes and rising storage levels. US oil producers have done much better. MTDR, REI and OILSF are cheap and primarily oil producers. SD, CTRA are gas heavy.
Longer term, energy stocks should do very well. Even in a recession, energy usage doesn't drop that much. And most energy producers are very wary of overdrilling so they are holding production pretty even and using profits to buy back stock and distribute dividends. Europe is going to need every ounce of LNG we can produce to replace Russian gas. Time to build new LNG export plants is the big issue and resistance to building new pipelines in the US to increase LNG exports.
Big pop today +.03 to .38 on good volume of 1.2 million.
No news so must be general glee over prospect of interest rate increases slowing down. Market has been over optimistic about FED pivoting for months. Every time they think FED will pause, they go nuts. Unfortunately historically interest rates have to get above the level of inflation to slow down inflation. That's quite a bit higher than we are now. So expect gloom to come back. In the meantime, Trillion will keep drilling and bringing new wells online. Eventually the market will realize it's for real! Keep drilling ART!
yeah, doesn't look good. Looks like prior operators weren't so incompetent after all.
Low grades are the killer! It's a low grade deposit but .39oz is really low.
TRLEF/TCF.CN +.03 to .3812
Nice pop today. Apparently yesterday was the last day for warrant holders to exercise on a certain set of warrants. Trillion announced an accelerated expiration in late October. So there was heavy selling yesterday as some warrant holders sold stock and signed up to exercise warrants.
Yesterday Trillion announced very good news. Their second well is coming online this week about two weeks after their first well was drilled successfully and came online. This second well is a recompletion. They fixed some bent tubing and perforated a new sand measuring 7 meters. The new sand performed so well in the testing that they decided to just put the new sand on production and go back and perforate the original sands when production drops off.
The recompletion should flow similar volumes to the first well, resulting in about 3MMCFPD net to Trillion from the two wells. Remember Trillion is getting $31/mcf for this gas. 3MMCFPD @$31/mcf = $2.79 million dollars per month gross revenues to Trillion. The pipelines and onshore processing plant are already there and operating. The field has been producing for over 10 years so all the infrastructure is there and already paid for. The onshore gas plant can process up to 75 MMCFPD. Trillion projects a new well will be drilled, completed and producing every 45 days. The next well should come online around early January 2023.
adding another drill rig?
Remember we haven't gotten our first check yet. Also remember how hard Art had to struggle to get Trillion to the point of drilling the first well. Lots of hard work and hundreds of millions of cheap shares issued.
Adding a second rig could happen if the cashflow comes in as predicted but I wouldn't expect Art to make that kind of decision until he has several million in the bank and everything is going smoothly.
Yes, it sure looks like the warrant expiration was the big factor in the negative response to the good news. Today is a different story. We are solidly up .02 but on lower volume.
We will get a taste of the financial benefits of these wells since we'll get our first check in late December but it will take awhile for the true benefit to show up in the P&L. Every 45 days means we will add about 8 more wells in 2023. So 10 wells flowing 3 to 8 MMCPD and Trillion getting 49% of that total.
It's happening just as Art predicted but it seems like slow motion. Biggest danger for me is probably sticking with it. This is going to take at least two years to play out and then we get to the big potential game changers. The successful drilling of the known targets is just the beginning. Art says there are big targets nearby that look like SASB. What would happen to the share price in two years if Art announced a discovery of a new field with a TCF of gas?
Crude recovered later in the session. Apparently false rumor was circulated saying the Saudis were going to increase production. Lies!
Somebody wanted to be sure their short paid off. They should be able to tie in those that cashed in big on shorts AND who issued the false statement about the Saudis and send them away for a long vacation. And reclaim the profits so Uncle Sam has enough cash to give it away to someone else.
TRLEF -.0079 to US$.35
down on good news?? Oil down so this goes down too. Doesn't matter. This new well is another paycheck that will happen every month. First check in December!
Trillion owns 49% of the output so if they run it at 3MMCFPD, Trillion will get 1.5MMCFPD @ $31/mcf!
TRILLION ENERGY ANNOUNCES FLOW TEST RESULTS FOR AKCAKOCA-3 WELLAkcakoca-3 Well Successfully Tested at a Rate of 7.0 MMcf/day
GLOBENEWSWIRE 7:00 AM ET 11/21/2022
Vancouver, B.C. , Nov. 21, 2022 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) -- Trillion Energy International Inc.(TRLEF)(“Trillion” or the “Company”) (CSE: TCF) is pleased to announce flow test results for the Akcakoca-3 natural gas well at the SASB gas field, offshore Turkey.
Three sands with a total of 34 metres of natural gas pay were identified for perforation in the Akcakoca-3 well. Upon the first perforation of the upper 7 metre sand occurring, the well immediately experienced a pressure buildup up to 7.0 MMcf/d (32/64” choke). Well head pressure measured 1,400 psi.
Based on initial gas flow and reservoir pressure data from perforation of the first sand, a decision was made to commence producing this zone and perforate the remaining two sands (totaling 27 metres) at a future date, after production from the initial perforated interval starts to decline.
The final production flow rate will ultimately be established at the process facility.
Arthur Halleran CEO of Trillion stated:
“We are very pleased that our multi-well drilling program is off to a very strong start. We are “Two for Two” so far with both South Akcakoca-2 and Akcakoca-3 wells now successfully producing gas. Each well additionally has 10s of metres of identified gas sands ready for perforation and production in the future to keep production levels up. This is a desirable situation for the Company to be in.”
About the Company
Trillion Energy (TRLEF) is focused on natural gas production for Europe and Türkiye with natural gas assets in Türkiye and Bulgaria. The Company is 49% owner of the SASB natural gas field, one of the Black Sea’s first and largest-scale natural gas development projects; a 19.6% (except three wells with 9.8%) interest in the Cendere oil field; and in Bulgaria, the Vranino 1-11 block, a prospective unconventional natural gas property. More information may be found on www.sedar.com, and our website.
Contact
Art Halleran: 1-250-996-4211
Corporate offices: 1-778-819-1585
e-mail: info@trillionenergy.com
Website: www.trillionenergy.com
Cautionary Statement Regarding Forward -Looking Statements
This news release may contain certain forward-looking information and statements, including without limitation, statements pertaining to the Company's ability to obtain regul a tory a pproval of the executive officer and director appointments . All statements included herein, other than statements of historical fact, are forward-looking information and such information involves various risks and uncertainties. Trillion does not undertake to update any forward-looking information except in accordance with applicable securities laws.
These statements are not guaranteeing of future performance and are subject to certain risks, uncertainties, and assumptions that are difficult to predict. Accordingly, actual results could differ materially and adversely from those expressed in any forward-looking statements as a result of various factors. These factors include unforeseen securities regulatory challenges, COVID, oil and gas price fluctuations, operational and geological risks, the ability of the Company to raise necessary funds for development; the outcome of commercial negotiations; changes in technical or operating conditions; the cost of extracting gas and oil may be too costly so that it is uneconomic and not profitable to do so and other factors discussed from time to time in the Company’s filings on www.sedar.com, including the most recently filed Annual Report on Form 20-F and subsequent filings for the first quarter of 2022. For a full summary of our oil and gas reserves information for Turkey, please refer to our Forms F-1,2,3 51-101 filed on www.sedar.com, and or request a copy of our reserves report effective December 31, 2021 and our Prospective Resource report effective October 31, 2021.
Source: Trillion Energy International Inc.(TRLEF)
2022 GlobeNewswire, Inc.
news came on a bad day for energy. So we go down on good news!
Two for two! Couldn't ask for better news.
Saturn Oil & Gas SOIL.v/OILSF C$2.64/US$2.00
Found this growing oil producer in Canada. Fairly new company that has been acquiring private producers in the Viking play in Saskatchewan. Viking is a pretty boring play in South Saskatchewan. Even with horizontal wells, the production is typically 60-100 bpd. This is a pure play on oil. There is less than 5% ngas, a similar amount of ngl liquids and the rest light oil. These are cheap wells to drill, around $1+million per well. The wells are fairly long life, with the ability to extend production thru waterfloods. This is not shale, the wells are fracked but don't need nearly as much stimulation to produce as in Texas.
Saturn recently(7/22) closed a C$240.1 million acquisition of a private Canadian producer near their other holdings. This added 4,000boepd to production and greatly increased revs and cashflow. The acquisition was done thru $200 million in debt and $75million in equity raises. The former owners were not given shares so there shouldn't be as much hangover from them selling near term. BUT the equity investors did get warrants and so some are likely selling the stock and holding the warrants for future appreciation. Financing was at C$2.75 with 1/2 warrant with a 7/23 maturity and C$3.20 strike price.
Here is the Q3 earnings report: https://finance.yahoo.com/news/saturn-oil-gas-inc-reports-221200843.html
Sales of C$105.7MM, funds flow of C$39.8MM or .69/share. That's ;why I bought some this morning. .69X4= C$2.76 fwd funds flow vs today's share price of C$2.67. Less than 1 X fwd cashflow!
That funds flow includes some hedging profits because the company did take out some hedges in July when oil prices were higher. But still extremely cheap.
The debt is fairly short term. They have to pay it back over the next 3 years. Terms are fairly expensive at CDOR+11.5% with 50% paid back the first year, 30% the second and 20% the third.
Here's where to download latest company presentation:
https://saturnoil.com/invest/presentations
They have a 15 year inventory of low risk, high payback oil wells. They have already drilled 30 wells on the new property with 100% success. I think this is dirt cheap and has the typical overhang from a recent financing. The fully diluted share count if all the warrants are exercised is ~102million shares.
Research Capital reiterated their buy recommend on Trillion Energy and their price target of US$1.35. Report shows projected cashflows and projects 1.35 as a reasonable 3X cashflow.
https://mcusercontent.com/5e269838a16742a97c90596c2/files/9ddac5b5-85ab-85d2-e245-5bb6978631ae/TCF_11_14_22.pdf
REI $3.09
The more I look, the more I like. Ring Energy completed their purchase of the private oil company in August and so included results of only one month of the combined companies. Production increased from 10K to 13K. In Q4, with all three months from both companies, Production will jump to 18K to 19K.
Ring operates in areas of the Permian that are not shale. They drill horizontal wells and frack but at much lower levels than in the true shale. Their land already has oil porosity. The fracking helps but isn't as necessary to get oil to flow. This leads to slower declines in production over the life of the well AND allows the company to apply secondary and tertiary methods to squeeze additional barrels out of the ground. So the life of these wells in the 30 to 50 year range of economic production. Offsetting these positives is the fact that these are not big wells. The initial production levels are in the 300-700bpd range. It takes a lot of wells to boost company wide production.
Like most US oil producers, Ring is not seeking production at all costs. They seek positive free cashflow, paying for all new drilling out of profits AND still having cashflow in excess of capex. Their most recent guidance is for 2023 production slightly higher than Q4 guidance of 18-19K. They also have to pay down debt from the acquisition that just closed. Their line of credit has $100+million plus in excess credit limit and given they are at a free cashflow level, this should be an adequate cushion. Company goal is to reduce outstandings next year from excess cashflow.
Ring is almost a pure play on oil. The level of liquids in their production in the 90+% range, counting oil + NGL. I think ngas pipelines in Texas will reach capacity soon and that will limit oil production since flaring is no longer allowed. Ring should have less problem with excess ngas production.
The oil porosity and the lack of need to frack as much leads to low cost oil wells. Ring has an extremely low cost of break even. Their break even is in the $25 to $30 range. This also leads to quicker drill times and completions. Wells can be drilled and turned to production in less than two weeks.
In addition to these cheaper horizontal wells, Ring also has hundreds of cheap vertical wells. The average production of these wells is in the 150bpd range. Again, not going to attract headline news but contributes to the company's low break even levels and long life assets.
Bottom line, I think Ring Energy will substantially increase net profits and cashflow in Q4 as production rises from 13K to 18K. They are very cost conscious and operating in areas that provide low cost, high return opportunities. The mgmt team founded Arena Resources and took that stock from nothing to a big cashout.
LEU +.42 to 39.87
LEU was cruising in the mid forties until they announced Q3 earnings. Big drop in revs and profits so stock crashed to around $30 on Nov 9th.
I bought more at $35, 35.17 and 31.50 on the way down. LEU is the only licensed supplier of HALEU in the US. HALEU is projected to be the version of fuel for advanced design reactors going forward, including most of the new Small Modular Reactors(SMR) that are on the drawing board.
Then Thursday the price started recovering based on an announcement out of the Dept of Energy.
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/u-centrus-energy-pact-next-165950899.html
LEU and Dept of Energy will share the $150million dollar cost to produce a limited amount of HALEU at the Centrus plant. This subsidy is obviously designed to encourage US based production of the fuel for the future and allow LEU to get ready for regular production in the future to fuel the US based nuclear plants.
RING ENERGY REI, -.12 to 3.08
Ring Energy is a Permian explorer and producer. They recently closed the purchase of a private energy company with wells and land in the Permian. Q3 results included 1 month of combined company.
Q3 they earned 1.09eps but that included a large derivative profit from hedging of $42million. After eliminating hedging, adjusted net was similar to Q2 of .28eps.
Assuming they can maintain .28eps, they are trading for around fwd p/e of 3.
They are guiding for 2023 production of ~18,000 boepd versus 13,000boepd they produced in Q3. I expect improved results from the gradual expansion of production as the new year unfolds. +~35% seems reasonable.
.28 X 4 = 1.12 fwd eps. X 1.35= 1.51 fwd eps or about a 2 fwd p/e.
Opened a small position. Investors may be spooked by share issuance to fund purchase and waiting to see how combined company performs. Also the private company owners could sell REI to cash out and cause near term share price weakness.
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/ring-energy-announces-record-results-222600475.html
TRLEF/TCF.cn +.0289 to US$.365
Gas if flowing. Trillion turned on their first SASB well and it's flowing about 3MMCFPD. Operator is monitoring and will likely increase it over time to 3.5 to 5 MMCFPD range.
2nd well is a recompletion. Well had bent tubing that prevented full production. Installed bigger tubing, fished old wiring out of hole and preparing to perforate well this week. Should turn to gas production by this time next week. Expect similar production to AK-2.
First paycheck should be mid December at $31/mcf! Trillion's partner and well operator is the national energy company of Turkey. Trillion has 49% interest in SASB field.
This is my biggest position. Company is guiding for 17 wells to be completed in the next two years. Expects each well to take approximately 45 days from spud to production. Has funds in hand to complete first 7 wells. Expects cashflow from these initial wells to pay for remaining 10. After the first 17 wells, Trillion will explore several prospect sites that have similar characteristics to SASB field where the first 17 wells are located. Onshore production facility can accomodate up to 75 MMCPD and can be expanded. Likely won't need expansion for this initial production phase of 17 wells. If they average 3 to 5 MMCFPD, that will total 51 to 85MMCFPD.
found it on another board:
https://us20.campaign-archive.com/?u=5e269838a16742a97c90596c2&id=d6b539e970 11/11/2022 - Weekly Drilling Report: November 9, 2022
Sorry, already deleted it. Email Trillion to get yourself on their emailing list for the weekly drill reports. Come out every Friday.
Drilling report is out. Nothing earthshaking. Getting ready to perforate new zone and turn over for production next week. Would be great if both wells are ready for production next week. Getting addicted to these Friday drill reports!
Very unusual day. I can't remember a day when so many different commodities were green. US dollar was down almost 2% so maybe that was the reason.
https://finviz.com/futures.ashx
Oil was up 5%, ngas +8%, gold 3%, silver 7.6%, copper 8%.
Stock positive but not as much. DJIA +1.12%, S&P 500 +1.21%
Is this a case of less bad news? Could we be close to a bottom?
I still think FED has to raise rates a LOT more to affect inflation. Generally agreed that you have to increase interest rates to AT LEAST the level of inflation to generate a response. That's 8% so we're halfway there. To get to 8%, we would definitely be in for a recession and so it's unlikely everything is going to be green for long.
I am overweight energy so today was a good day but not feeling that sure about the future.
yeah, I doubt Art pays a dividend anytime soon. Too many wells to drill and then after the first 17 wells, there are many exploratory targets nearby that could be bigger than SASB! Drilling programs A and B are going to take us into 2024 and then he'll start taking shots at blue sky. IF everything goes as planned, we should have solid cashflow and money in the bank but offshore exploratory wells aren't going to be cheap. If he has to build platforms after drilling success, it could take years to get a new field online. Investors don't realize the beautiful situation we are in now with the existing platforms and pipelines.
TRLEF +.0286 to US$.3492
kinda surprised volume has been relatively light. I guess the folks that know about it and accept the area risk, have already bought in. I bought a few more yesterday at .321. Should have bought more but chickened out. This stock should strengthen as Trillion drills and pumps more gas. This second well should take less time as a recomplete versus drill.
trlef/tcf.cn US$.3206
Trillion is a Canadian energy company exploring in the Black Sea near Turkey. The company secured a 49% interest in a field that's already been drilled and tested many years ago.Their partner is the Turkish National Energy company Nat gas wasn't that valuable and so it wasn't produced even though several wells were drilled and tested. The offshore platforms are already built and pipelines go onshore to a processing plant. This well should be producing this month and generating revs. The next well is a recompletion so should be even quicker. There are 10 wells similar to this one ready to be drilled. Turkey pays in US$ to Trillion. In order to finance this opportunity, Trillion had to dilute substantially. There are almost 500million shares fully diluted. At US$.32, the market cap is in the US$120million range. The fact that they don't have to build a pipeline to the mainland AND build an onshore gas processing plant is huge. Company estimated several hundred million in capex has already been spent. Hopefully the next two years will result in a series of similar announcements. Once the first 10 wells are drilled, Trillion will explore their substantial holding offshore. They have several prospects similar to the SASB field they are currently drilling. They will use the cashflow from the first wells to pay for the exploration.
Trillion Energy Announces Successful Flow Test Results
The South Akcakoca 2 well was completed and tested at a rate of 7.0 - 8.2 MMcf/day
November 1, 2022 - Vancouver, B.C. - Trillion Energy International Inc. (“Trillion” or the “Company”) (CSE: TCF) (OTCQB: TRLEF) (Frankfurt: Z62) today announced flow test results for the South Akcakoca-2 natural gas well at SASB gas field, offshore Turkey.
The final log evaluation identified a total of 32.9 metres of natural gas pay within 5 sands in the Akcakoca Member.
Two of the lower sands (D, C) were perforated over a combined interval of 22.1 metres MD. The well was then flow tested into the SASB production facilities at 7.0 – 8.2 MMcf/d with a 32/64” choke. Reservoir pressure built up to 1690 psi during shut in. The full 22.1 metres perforation interval is currently undergoing a long-term production test into our facilities.
The well is in line with expectations and based on known production characteristics of historical gas wells at SASB. Final production rate will be given when measured at the process facility.
The additional upper interval of 10.8 metres of pay identified through logs as gas bearing sands will be perforated in the future after the production for the initial interval starts to decline.
Arthur Halleran, CEO of Trillion Energy, stated:
“The results from the flow-test in the lower intervals are in line with our expectations for the South Akcakoca-2 gas well. We are very pleased that the first of our multi-well program has been completed successfully. This is an excellent start to our program.”
Trillion Energy is focused on natural gas production for Europe and Türkiye with natural gas assets in Türkiye and Bulgaria. The Company is 49% owner of the SASB natural gas field, one of the Black Sea’s first and largest-scale natural gas development projects; a 19.6% (except three wells with 9.8%) interest in the Cendere oil field; and in Bulgaria, the Vranino 1-11 block, a prospective unconventional natural gas property.
Let's hope it's good news. Volume double average and stock trading at low of the day. I put in a bid for a few more shares.
pgm.v/LRTNF .0167
hope nobody followed me into this one. Pure Gold couldn 't refinance their debt and had to go on care and maintenance. Improvements in productions and cost don't matter if the lender calls your loan.
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/puregold-provides-financial-operations-103000159.html
weather forecast for next week is for 20-30 degree drop in temps mostly on east coast. Supposed to last a week. Arctic air is the cause and Western US will get unseasonably warm air and record high temps at the same time. Futures markets are centered on East Coast so lower temps will likely impact traders since they see it going to work. We'll see IF the temps drop that much and IF it lasts all week and affects ngas storage levels..
TRLEF -.0144 to .3156
Trillion Energy down a bit today on pretty good news. Total depth and testing in the next few days. I've seen some pretty good pre testing PR's that turned to dust but overall the drilling has gone as planned and on time and on budget is a good start to a good well. We'll find out in the next couple of weeks. After that, very quick turnaround to production and cash because of existing undersea pipelines and onshore processing facility.
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/trillion-energy-announces-td-logging-130000476.html
Energy stocks doing well this week after OPEC declared 2 million bpd reduction in quotas. Biden added another 10 million barrel release from SPR but that's not going to do much longer term. And SPR releases of 1 million per day are supposed to be replaced at some point in time. So additional SPR purchases loom off in the distance.
I have moved towards much larger energy companies as they are well financed and profitable with low p/e's.
Current favorites are MTDR with Permian production, improving balance sheet and p/e of 6.
VET is a canadian producer with production of oil and gas in US, Canada and Europe. European ngas production has resulted in a bonanza of free cashflow but lately market has focused on excess profits tax in Europe and has sold off the stock. Still think it has good fundamentals, cheap and increasing ngas due to closing of previous purchase. P/E 6
CTRA Coterra is the result of a recent merger of Cabot and Cimarex. As a result, you get Permian oil, Marcellus gas with ngas being the primary product. Another low p/e of 7 and increasing dividends to shareholders.
VET 23.18
Vermillion has had a big drop since hitting a peak of over US$30 a couple of months ago. Part was due to falling oil prices, hitting an interim peak of $122 in June and falling to below $80 in Sept. VET fell to a low of 18.41 in late September before rallying recently to today's price. One factor in the share price decline is the excess profits tax in Europe. VET gets most of its free cashflow from it's European natural gas production. Prices in Europe have been crazy high and VET has about 10Kbpoed production from natural gas. They are due to increase their share of the offshore Corrib field production late this year or early next when their purchase of additional interest from a jv partner is completed.
The tax will likely take a 25% bite out of VET's free cashflow. Still a very profitable company with increasing ngas production in Europe. They have production in Canada, US and Europe and should fare well in the next few years.
Trillion Energy TRLEF/TCF.cn +.02 to US$.3485 Trillion has been moving up lately as they finally have a drill bit working. No results, although the first well is a recompletion of a previously drilled hole. Should be low risk but they need these first two wells to produce as advertised to avoid a collapse in price. Lots of optimism built into share price.
There are positive reasons for optimism. Offshore drill platforms are already built and in place. 5, I think. The first 17 wells are very low risk due to previous drilling and testing. They were just never produced in a much lower ngas price environment. In addition, Trillion has pipelines already in place to an onshore facility with 75mmcfd capacity. So they drill, complete and almost immediately can produce ngas. That doesn't happen normally. Also their prices are locked in at US$30/mcf. Not Turkish Lira. Which is excellent because Turkey is experiencing 80% inflation. Don't want to be holding Turkish currency.
There are definitely risks due to Black Sea location, Turkey country risk and the normal offshore production issues. But in addition to the first 17 wells, Trillion holds rights to several exploration locations that could be huge. The plan is to use the first 17 wells cashflow to explore nearby locations from the existing platforms.
First well scheduled to be drilled, completed and producing by November. Short wait to find out if they can deliver.
Agree that a cold winter will be needed to support ngas prices. Freeport LNG coming back online Oct. That will boost exports by 20% from that point on. We are already at bottom of 5 year storage levels, even with Freeport offline for the last few months.
Ngas prices have definitely been elevated all year, moving from $4/mcf in 1/22 to a peak of $10 this summer and now at 6.89.
I don't buy that headline. Europe fills up ahead of schedule.
They are comparing historic storage levels in Europe but 90% storage isn't going to help Germany when their ongoing inflows have dramatically declined. 90% was enough to get them thru the winter in previous years when Russia was supplying 40% of their ngas. With only 60% of incoming ngas continuing on a daily basis all winter, that 90% storage figure doesn't hold water or ngas. They are going to get incremental supplies from other countries but nothing compared to what they would have received from Russia. I still think there will be a big crisis in Europe this winter and next. It will take that long to build up LNG import facilities and improve pipelines between countries in Europe.
PGM.v/LRTNF US$.108
Pure Gold is a recent production story with a sad beginning. Overpromised and underdelivered and market made them pay. It peaked in 12/20 in the $2 range. Today I bought a few for .097. Will try to sneak a few more tomorrow.
So why buy? New mgmt. New technical studies and a better look at the ore body. They started production in a hinge zone that they say is the most complicated part of the ore body. As a result, grades have been subpar and below estimates. Prior mgmt was too optimistic. The new studies dropped the total ounces by 20%.
Mgmt is promising increasing ounces, leading to positive cashflow. Recent financing has 6 month warrants that company likely want to get exercised to provide drilling money. To get them exercised, they need good news. Last two months have shown increased production and grade. Should find out pretty quick if they are on the right track. Long term, they are still in the vicinity of the Red Lake Mine and they still have the positive long term potential of more high grade at depth, like Red Lake.
Here is their latest presentation:
https://www.puregoldmining.ca/wp-content/uploads/2022/09/Puregold-Corp-Deck-Sep-23-2022.pdf
Hold your $$$$$$$!
We need 17 successful drillings/recompletions before that $30/mcf and $1.75 means anything. Ok, maybe after 10 successful wells, the market will project the rest but let's get #1&2 done before you start celebrating. Only have to wait a couple months.
energy stocks. I added some energy stocks on the dip today.
I don't think energy usage is going to drop that much with a recession. Hasn't in the past. Europe is going to consume every bit of LNG we can export and oil is going to get substituted for ngas this winter.
Added LEU @35.99, MTDR @48.90 and CTRA @ 25.99
Natural gas inventories are below the 5 year average. Cold winter and US will be screaming for ngas. Exporters may get some backlash from US consumers.
Oil production is not going up. OPEC is maxed out. US Producers are not going to risk another price dive, they are maintaining production and paying dividends to investors along with share buybacks. They have been retrained by the market to return capital rather than invest in more production.