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Thanks for the clarification.
I knew about the black box but left it out of my comment because i still believe it's creation was to avoid the potential problems I mentioned. Given that no one has purchased a box, we don't know if it's safeguards actually work.
There were a of of other problems with the solar cell market (loss of subsidies, overproduction etc.) around the time the box was created and that could be another reason the Chinese didn't go ahead with its purchase.
BTW we should hear the results on the black wafer testing in the near future. It will be a major coup for the company if the Chinese show real interest; and that might get the attention of North American investors.
Natcore entered into a JV agreement with the Chinese 2-3 years ago to develop the existing technology when they couldn't get a grant or any interest from the government or U.S. investors. Then Natcore got the license to develop black silicon which wasn't part of the JV with the Chinese. The Chinese never developed the old technology because Natcore wouldn't give them an AR box as (my impression) they were afraid the Chinese would backengineer it and cut them out of the JV.
Now it looks like the Chinese might be interested in obtaining a license from Natcore to use their Bsi wafer but the same fears would persist. Don't expect Natcore to do anything with the Chinese unless they are partnered with a major North American or European player so as to bring some clout to the bargaining table. JMO.
So you attack me and then suggest I not respond so you can look like a hero? Really? This is an open forum. Anyone can express their opinion on the merits of the stock. You on the other hand have only expressed an opinion on my comments. Feel free to make any comments you deem fit... on Natcore, and keep your opinions on myself or any other poster to yourself.
I don't think the wafers are the problem. You can test them all you want but the issue is whether you want to completely revamp your production line on something of an untested commodity i.e. the AR box. The company would have to buy one and insert it into it's line and go through a complete production run and then test the finished product before making a decision to turn over it's entire process. Provimi said last year that there were a number of companies interested in doing that (and in one of their releases they proved that the box can turn out a completed solar panel) but things seemed to have fallen through the cracks. Natcore didn't want to make one or more on spec and apparently the companies didn't want to spend the money to revamp their line. That's why they need a partner with enough money to build the boxes and test them in their own facility and then people will see the "light" of day.
All it takes is one company to take a minor leap of faith and then we will see the sp jump several multiples.
There is always resistance to a new process.Natcore's black silicon is admittedly untested in a real world application and there is always reluctance to be the first one to use a new process as there is a fear it won't work and you will lose your customers/market share. However margins are low so there is an incentive for some company to step up and explore the possibility that it actually works. I think that's why Provimi indicated that some countries want them to build a plant to manufacture them as that places the risk on Natcore but if it works, gives those countries a great advantage overt the existing manufacturers.
Provimi has said for a few years that they need a partner with deep pockets to make everything work and I think that's the focus for the new year. GE, the Chinese, First Solar all might take a flyer if the price is right. Hopefully it's a European or North American manufacturer as that would make me feel safer about my investment.
BTW no idea if any of the companies mentioned are interested, just naming some with a background in this technology.
It will be interesting to see the market's reaction to the prospect of Natcore building one or more solar facilities; and how the Chinese respond to the less expensive solar wafers.
A lot of press for the new laser process. They keep talking about how things would speed up if they could find a partner so I wouldn't be surprised to hear some news about that in early 2014.
Yep. $.95 is close to the right price but I expect it to go lower a bit before year end as a lot of investors realize that the entire concept is like a house of cards that could fall at any minute. I invested in this stock over three years ago with complete confidence in the concept and management. Now, I think some of the comments from a year or so ago are appropriate i.e. this is a science project with no intention of being brought to market and designed solely to provide a fat paycheck to management. Either the manufacturers have figured that out once they did their due diligence or management has done a really bad sales job; and I don't think it's the latter as they have done a lot to pump the stock with no REAL results. Management has been completely dishonest with the shareholders in promising, yes promising, sales, contracts, licensing agreements etc. all in the coming months, soon, in the next quarter etc. The pp was made on the above premise and as soon as it closed, lo and behold, another 6 month delay to "improve" the process by using lasers.
I have heard all the arguments that this is new technology and there are always wrinkles in getting it into production but enough is enough. We are no closer to making a sale than we were three years ago despite a host of new promises on that point.
From now on I am going to stop bashing the company and will follow the company's example and post nothing but empty optimism so that any new sh will think the stock is going to take off at any minute and the second it hits $1.25 I'm going to dump my 100,000 or so shares and run all the way to the bank. GLTA.
Yep, another sh starts to see the problem with Natcore and its management. Now it's lasers causing a delay as they try and figure out how to make their cell more cost effective and efficient.
If lowering costs by 23% and gaining 3% efficiency isn't enough to induce the manufacturers to jump on board does anyone really think a frickin' laser will do the job? Maybe if it was attached to a sharks head....
Sold some at$1.20. Kept enough to entitle me to voice an opinion.
There's that 4 letter word again..."soon". I predict that as "soon" as the market realizes that Provimi has no concept of time the sp will drop back below a buck.
He should understand that it's one thing to buffalo a bunch of penny stock investors that are buying a stock for cents on the dollar but investors shilling out $40-$50,000 a pop understand the OED definition of "soon" and will bail once they realize that there is no pot of gold at the end of the 6 month or "sooner" rainbow.
Oh and one more thing; get a different schtick Provimi. The same old refrain of "we are expecting to present our findings, cells, boxes etc to manufacturers soon; in the coming months; by the end of the next quarter" is really tiresome and lame. For all the money you have taken from investors by way of salary you really should be able to think up a new catchphrase.
Is that a scientific fact or just spin? If true then why haven't the manufacturers beat a path to our door? 20% efficiency and 23% lower manufacturing costs is better than anything on the market by a wide margin. We should have everyone in the solar cell industry clamoring to sign an exclusive rights contract worth hundreds of millions of dollars. Hopefully that's coming "soon".
Just had a thought about the cost savings. Is that only for the manufacturing process or does it also account for the ability to track the sun without the necessity of a motorized platform? If not, then the cost savings are even greater for those who want a "solar farm"; and a big boost in efficiency for the average user.
A lot of time and money to promote the company and it seems to have worked. Now all we need is a real announcement i.e. efficiency up to 17%+; a contract of some sort; or a real breakthrough in the thin film to justify the upwards movement. If nothing of substance is forthcoming by the end of the year the sp will drop back well below a buck next year. JMO.
sp rises over .30 cents in two weeks or so and no news of any significance. Anyone have any idea of whether Natcore announced anything at the conference? Any "timelines" to draw in more su....ers I mean shareholders?
Strange how no mention is made of further improvements in the efficiency of their last cell despite the fact that the last numbers were released in the late spring and about two months later he said in a comment that the increase in efficiency wasn't too hard to achieve. Same comments about passivation. An overseas marketing director was hired about a year ago as was a chief production manager and some other warm bodies that don't seem to have anything to do without a product to sell and manufacture. I think a lot of the pp is going to salaries and not commercialization. JMO but unless some hard, concrete results are released by the end of the year the sp will tank again as the new investors realize that this is a VERY long term investment and bail to some other, more promising, venture.
You could be right. However I don't believe Provimi really put a lot of thought into the "mantra" as, when it was first trotted out, they had no clue as to how much anything would cost to manufacture. It just sounds cool so he uses it.
I agree that they will sell their technology but the issue is who wants it as things stand and which technology i.e. bsi, single emitter or thin film tandem? I still think they need to prove that everything from the Ar box to mass production with at least 16% efficiency is feasible before any contracts are signed.
They have hinted at that from time to time but I agree with you that they will not build a facility from scratch. I was thinking more of building the new box, getting a bsi cell that can be mass produced and then selling the box and licensing the technology to another company that is prepare to adopt Natcore's standards and sell it as their own product. Still a year away from something close to that idea.
The testing was supposed to be for several different companies who had different specs. One of Provimi's missives mentioned that they expected to sign contracts "soon" Then they announced that they were going to build their own AR box to factory specs to test the various samples. That required the recent pp to fund the cost of the new box. Frankly I thought they had given up on the samples and the supposed contracts given the recent problems with so many solar cell companies closing shop and were going to build and design their own cell and then try and market it as a package deal with the new box. Just another example of changing direction after a " coming soon" announcement.
The "half cost" issue is meant for the tandem cell; as is "twice the efficiency". Besides you really don't believe everything Natcore posts after all thee broken promises do you?
When haven't they been making plans to take their technology to market?? More Provimi speak for "buy our stock so I can justify my salary".
Leaving my skepticism aside for a moment, the Independent study does help with promoting the company.I expect a lot of activity for the short term but the price falling once the new investors realize that there won't be any sales for at least another 10-12 months... and that's my optimism speaking.
I'm not certain how long you have been a Natcore sh but Provimi uses words like "soon", "in the coming months" and "shortly" in every announcement. The first time I read those words was over two years ago and nothing has happened so don't hold your breath waiting on contracts of any description.
There has been a lot of ancillary activity i.e. hiring staff, leasing more space, new patent applications etc. but there is no indication from anything I've read in the last 6 months to convince me that Natcore is "close" to commercialization with any of their projects. Even Provimi said about 3 months ago that the last pp was needed to advance all their projects and it only closed about 6 weeks ago. Same news release suggested 2014 as the time line for commercialization of black silicon, single emitter etc. Realistically, any income will be from the sale of patents and technology such as the single emitter before Natcore produces a viable, marketable, black solar cell.
It's probably 7-10 years away from being in general use; unless it's fast tracked. Then maybe 4-5 years. Nothing that will make Natcore money in the short term except perhaps an initial fee by someone who wants the technology and either buys the patent or licenses it.
Still, anyone who actually pays money for the LPD process will make the industry sit up and pay attention and perhaps cause some kind of spike in the sp.
You've never heard of an insider buying on then open market? you've never held a penny stock where management and the principal shareholder buy on the open market when they perceive it to be a tremendous bargain and want to make a lot of money? So you're saying it's a stupid idea to make a lot of money?
Stupid is the operative word and it applies to the source of the comments.
Very quiet and really low volume. Which brings me to the subject of this post... no insider is buying up shares at what many perceive to be rock bottom prices. Many other start up companies which have a wealthy CEO or Chairman of the Board show support for the company when the stock price drops well below a 52 week average. However Lundin and Provimi and even Drs. Flood and Barron don't seem to want to buy on the open market. Too many warrants o/s perhaps?
Anyone aware of a blackout or some other reason they don't buy their own stock?
A little show of faith would be welcomed by the sh.
i think you're on the right track. I said in an earlier post that the company would probably have to sell their patents if they wanted to see any real money. I also said they need to go cap in hand to someone like GE and enter into a partnership to produce all their products. The pp only raised $3.1 million and they had a target of $4 million. They need to get their heads out of the clouds and stop going in ten directions at once and get something, anything that works, to market. The money is needed to do just that so let's hope it results in something other than a few more beers on the beach for Provimi and company.
As a shareholder with over 6 figures invested in this company i have the right to be critical of management for constantly promising, yes promising, to deliver a product to market for the last two years with absolutely no such product in or near commercialization. If anything was close to being commercialized we would have proof such as an actual signed lease for space to process the chemicals, news of mass hirings to work in that space, a press release and demonstration of the process and a panel, heck even news that they started construction on the AR box that is supposed to be in a line would be real progress. Nope, no such thing, nada, zilch, zero news.
Frankly they have acknowledged, by the pp, that they won't get a partner on board anytime soon, and need to get a >18% efficient bsi panel demonstrated to the market before they will see any money. The pp is for building the AR box and to hire more scientists to help with the remaining issues that this super brain trust hasn't been able to figure out in two years; although Provimi says it isn't that big a deal.
I always thought that 2014 would be a great year for the company but given the time needed to get working on a commercialized panel when they haven't even started to work on the second AR box suggests we are still 16-24 months away from any profitability....which in case you have all forgotten is why we invested in Natcore in the first place. Oh and that's if they actually intend to produce a panel instead of moving on to a tandem cell and then who knows how long the wait will be in that case.
Yes I'm upset and rightly so and if I wanted a huge capital loss would sell my stock but that's not an option now so I continue to hold my nose and hope that I am very wrong about the timelines.
A lot of people dropping the stock but low volume. Anyone have any idea of why all sellers and no buyers for such a game changing stock?
How can he prove it? He has nothing to sell. The pp is an indication that they want to get moving on their "projects" but I won't be surprised of we get some kind of NR in the "coming months" saying that they are abandoning the bsi as it pertains to a standard cell and instead " will concentrate their efforts to bring a thin film tandem cell to market" as it will be a "game changer".
I'm not certain how NREL would react to that announcement given the licensing agreement but it won't surprise me if Natcore does it anyway. If so it would be the second time in 3 years they have abandoned a line of development in favor of another "project".
All they do is tinker in their labs and pay themselves big salaries and the shareholders have nothing to show for their faith in the company.
Just once I would like to read a NR about actually exceeding a standard cell's efficiency using the LPD process that can be put into mass production. After all that's been the goal for the last 7 years.
I agree that news about increased commercialization of a certain percentage or contracts would not be given to an individual. It should be in a news release. However I was trying to get a sense of whether any progress is being made and saying for example, that they are in negotiations for the extra space to manufacture the chemicals, or that a news release will be forthcoming in the next week or two about the status of the AR box would help to ease the impression that nothing is moving forward.
Even a response suggesting that my questions "will be answered shortly" would have been appreciated.
i wrote to the company over a week ago to ask about the progress of improving the efficiency of bsi, whether they had actually signed a lease for more space and some other questions that have been on all of our minds for the last several months. No reply. A lot of press recently but nothing about signing contracts, building the AR box etc. I have a significant amount of money tied up in Natcore and don't feel like I can throw it away by selling at these prices. The shareholders deserve to know about the status of their projects and in particular commercializing bsi; and I don't mean another Provimi doublespeak news release full of vague hints of some kind of commercialization with "soon" or "in the coming months" etc attached to them. I mean actual results that speak for themselves. If the efficiency has been improved to 16% or something like that then let us know and hope (sigh) another few months gets us over the top. The silence about that issue and NR's about a new tandem cell that is years away from profitability suggests they can't improve the efficiency and are masking their failure with a new project. Gundoro this is not a scam as there is no profit in it for them unless they are shorting the stock behind the scenes which I don't believe is the case.
We need hard data and not more unfulfilled promises.
Thanks very much for an informed point of view about the technology.
The tough part is keeping your money tied up in a stock that might actually be a game changer but with no clear path to the end result.I have been an investor for 4 years and will continue to hold onto Natcore but it would be nice if we actually had a product that was commercially viable with all the perceived benefits...or at least had a partner to pony up the necessary cash and accelerate the timelines. GTAL.
What has management ever done to justify your faith in them? They have missed every timeline ever announced and continue to change the nature of the product to justify their failures. Every new milestone is followed by meaningless announcements about new personnel and plans for expansion which have never been realized. They said for years they wouldn't build a new AR box on spec and well by golly now they're planning to do just that. I said well over a year ago that there should be a pp to boost the number of people working on the project and do what it takes to get something into commercial production and guess what... they lament the fact they don't have enough cash or people to push a product into production but do fill a pp to build the new Ar box.... which hasn't even been started as far as we know. They continue to pay themselves a hefty salary with absolutely no indication of revenue for the foreseeable future.
I've been involved with a lot of businesses over the years and know a lot of people who actually own and manage multi million dollar companies and none of them would operate a company on these terms; and if they did would be fired or go bankrupt.
Remember that we used to have a moderator that was very positive about the company but when he spoke to them about another missed timeline he advised us that he believed in the product but not management and was so disillusioned that he resigned as a moderator. Some things never change.
It's now almost August. Has anyone actually been hired? Part of the money is from a government grant. Maybe it's been delayed or something but why no announcement on the "mass hiring" if it's been accomplished. Why no announcement on signing a lease if it's been completed. A lot of information on putting something into production is missing and all we get is news about another science project with no near term commercial value.
The technology announcement was about the single emitter theory. That part was correct. Not what I was expecting but they think it's a big deal. Charts were not completely wrong. The bump was much smaller and didn't last.
They've been saying they expect to sign contracts for at least a year. No news on improving the efficiency of the bsi cell, no news on signing a lease to make the chemicals, no news on starting construction of the second AR box.... in short nothing at all in terms of commercial viability. Don't get me wrong, I've got a lot tied up in this company and want them to succeed but someone needs to get a hold of them and shake some sense into them about running in ten different directions at once. Drs. Flood and Baron need to stop tinkering with a project that's 4 years away from commercial viability and focus on improving the commercial viability of the current bsi cell. Nothing else matters to their shareholders and they should be reminded of that fact.
More science projects. Where the double hockey sticks is the work to put any kind of solar cell into production. More patents, no money. The only way this becomes lucrative is if someone buys the company for the patents. In that case we might see a few bucks per share.
Nobody should get too excited. The pp closed last week (finally got smart) but it will be used to build a second, production, AR box. That will take 4-6 months. Then they have to demonstrate that they can produce a commercially viable panel that is at least as effective and hopefully cost less. All of this is was really old news. Provimi said they wouldn't build another Ar box on spec but that's exactly what they are doing.
The only thing that will pump up the stock is if they release news that they have increased the efficiency to at least 17% but at a noticeably reduced cost. That should get people interested enough to follow the stock and as soon as the above noted panel comes off the line they should get some contracts and we should see a nice jump. However all timelines are looking at 2014.
I was referring to the nr's before the announcement about the selective emitter. I didn't think that would cause any deviation from their decision as the process would be applicable to the proposed bsi panel. Someone could e-mail the company and ask about the space but if they do I would wager that the response would be something along the lines of "we are in the process of assessing our manufacturing space needs and hope to finalize that decision in the coming months." Everything is "in the coming months... years actually....who knows if it will work....anyone want to buy a bridge in Brooklyn?