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The Unsecured Creditors just filed a 104 page brief today basically telling the Debtors to move their asses and start liquidating the company. This might move faster than one might expect, especially with a lot of people looking to make investments in oil and gas companies again.
Pink,
Remember though, you don't have to see the whole bankruptcy process thru to the end. That's what is so big about today's ruling. I don't know if you have ever played poker, but you don't have to have the best hand to win, you just have to be representing the best hand. Moving forward, this stock will be looked at by "valuation models of recovery" instead of "will it even make it to recovery".
Even if this gets sold for less and there is no equity recovery at all (which seems unlikely), you still get to represent to the market a potential for a big recovery as that is what will now drive the price.
Congratulations and IMO you can now ride in the winds of the Valuations, an approved RC, potential CODI removal, bigger and reputable buyers coming in, good legal team representing an EC, and word getting out to people. All should be positive events to lift the stock.
Just try and pick your valuation and exit point but I dont think we are anywhere near that yet.
Valuation possibilities.
Ok so here are the numbers on equity. Remember that based on the EC's expert, he has Liabilities at 3.2B and sees a potential recovery at 4.1-5.2B Regardless of what he says since he's not been given the power to do so, we do know the actual shares issued now in Preferred and Commons because that is what is left after the Liabilities are taken care of.
Series A Preferred Stock 8M shares at $25+1 so $208M
Series B Preferred Stock 46.7M shares at $7.50 so 350M...(This is the 350 offering to EIG, who you'd think will be happy to see this company sold or liquidated so they get their money back)
Commons- 213M shares.
So even if this were to go the route of A and B being paid in full, that still leaves commons with a huge potential if the company is sold for 4-5B. You can do the math yourself and see different scenarios, but commons IMO are still way undervalued here big time!
I could care less what people buy, and Im not advsing anyone to buy anything. I only care about myself.
Where I find value on here is when several real investors who own this stock can put their heads together and start trying to throw out ideas and come up with a consensus on what might happen and how everyone can help one another, based on logic, history, valuations, etc...I pay zero attention to any theories or numbers without substance behind them and am not into just making random numbers up as that is just detrimental if you don't have a target entry and exit point.
You are completely in over your head right now and you should stop posting until you have some sort of clue on what is going on.
First off, Sand Ridge didn't have an EC.
Secondly, the SEC isn't involved, they just wrote a recommendation letter to the court on the behalf of the EC. You absolutely do need attorneys for the EC, are you insane??? That's what they do, and who will be negotiating and representing equity, you, me, the common and preferred shareholders.
I am not giving anyone false hope. The Judge ruled on it. When you climb out of bed and join us on Planet Earth next month, you can read the filing that is pending public filing that you're still claiming isn't there.
I haven't pumped anything up, as you can go back and read my posts and I certainly believe this will be worth more than a gain of .50 cents.
You are right as I don't know the exact details of how it will turn out but I follow guides along the way and the hurdle of getting an EC in place was a monster one. Now we move down the path to the next one. Im not on here saying garbage like "its going to the moon", "better reload", like pumpers do.
I think many people on here are posting as much as evidence as possible with links to filings and docket reports, so be thankful or get lost. You truly are making an ass out of yourself right now. Dont post at me again, as I am thru talking to you about anything.
True, why buy in at .09 or .17 or.27 speculatively when you can wait on 4 days delay and get in at $1.47 instead. LOL
Matt, understand everything you are saying and where you are coming from, but the EC is a go. The judge ruled for that before noon, and the filing will eventually be on Pacer.
Most all Qs end awful but lot of things in play on this one that are different, most notably they are worth a lot more than they say and are solvent. Also Wells Fargo is big in this on bonds which might be why the SEC is involved because of how bad WF has been with their scandal.
I think I posted the link to the Sand Ridge bankruptcy somewhere if you can find it in an older post, but read that. I am just speculating but that seems what the debtors were trying to get away with here.
Regardless, with an EC, we are now sitting in a strong position as there has to be a signed off POR and the judge certainly is now going to make sure equity is treated fairly based on his actions thus far. All IMO and do your own DD but this was THE huge hurdle to clear and it has been cleared, now its removing CODI and what kind of valuation to peg.
Bill, you are way behind my man.
The judge ruled TODAY right before noon in court for the approval of the formation of an EC. Several people in court and listening on the phone confirmed it. I realize you are waiting on a doc on Pacer and it will be there eventually when filed, but that prob isn't going to be until the end of the day. Obviously the stock price reflected that.
The EC is approved, not pending.
LMAO, no this is not like some do over in kickball, especially after their management is exposed to shadyness where they can just now pull out, it doesn't work like that.
There will now have to be a Plan of Reorganization put forth and this is why it was so important for the approval of an EC because now they can have a say so in what happens. The debtors cant do what they want, the Judge will have to sign off on any agreement and the EC isn't going to sign off on one unless its to their liking.
A lot of bankruptices are death battles that drag on forever but with oil where is is, liquidation is possible so they get optimum prices, and it could happen sooner than later if they start accepting bids.
Its complicated but some do make it out. Do your homework, this isn't a biotech we have a magical drug. It's a company that shouldn't have ever filed for bankruptcy and is solvent and that got caught and now will pay for it.
That is all true but you need to dig deeper and do more homework. You should fully read docket #614 and that will tell you why it's much different than the typical Q.
In sum, the EC and its expert who testified, as well as the SEC, are of the belief that the company is worth 1-2B after paying off debt. The SEC rarely gets involved like that and there are some heavy hitters with equity. There are also others that believe the company and bondholders were trying to get away with what Sand Ridge did and got caught so you can read up on that too, Im not going to spell it out.
That's a good question. Hopefully someone sharper can answer that. Here is what we do know though.
Debt and Liabilities are 3.2B
Expert for the EC testified that the company is worth at a minimum 4.1B to 5+B, so that leaves 1-2B for equity.
There are the number of shares in the following:
Preferreds
8M Series A
47.6M Series B
Commons
213M
EC approved by Judge from the bench. HUGE RULING! They were back in court for closing arguments from Tuesday and he had seen enough. I didnt realize they were in court again so my bad saying that we might not get a ruling today.
HUGE HUGE NEWS, sets the stage to remove CODI and let equity fight for what is theirs. Remember the EC expert testified that this valuation is 1-2B after debts paid. Do the math!
Docket #650 Filed last Friday
https://cases.primeclerk.com/breitburn/Home-DocketInfo
go back and read my previous posts, its in there somewhere.
I wish you guys would quit pumping that news to try to oversell it, so you can then try and drop it when one doesn't come. There is no announcement of a ruling tomorrow, nor is a judge going to leak out info on it.
Go back and look at the last EC he had to decide on, it took him close to a month to file his response. Sure he could rule tomorrow if he's seen enough, but if not it doesn't mean that it's abnormal for him to take several weeks to do so.
It looks very favorable for an EC formation, and hopefully that occurs, but if not tomorrow, it doesn't mean that it was ever scheduled to be.
Perhaps that is the reason the SEC got involved and wrote a recommendation letter to the judge in support of the formation of an EC. Wells Fargo is already in hot water due to their recent actions and hopefully the government is going to help try and shove it up their asses here!
No problem, I didnt take it that way. Would rather be corrected than put out something false.
Got it, thanks
Not to sound like a know it all but actually it isn't very similar other than they are energy companies. The big major event early on, that drove UPLMQ, was Eric Cole backed by David Tepper from Apaloosa bought 17M shares early on and that drove the price as people were following the money I assume. Then they had a very positive earnings report in August that launched the stock another few bucks.
Also the judge here denied the request for an EC and they are going at it Ad Hoc, whereas in BBEPQ it appears to have a much stronger case for the approval of one. BBEPQ is also in much better financial shape.
Hopefully the share price rising like that is the same though!
I dont believe a UST has been appointed here yet.
Right? They really have pissed off some people to get a rebuke and endorsement from the SEC. I would be shocked if that alone isn't enough to get an EC approval but the legal team here is fantastic as well. In bankruptcy stocks, the first step is you gotta stay alive and not get zero'd out and once you accomplish that, then the fun begins for those who are in at the bottom. That certainly looks possible here.
Imagine, do both classes of P's have a par value of $25?
If so:
57,600,000 Preferred's @$25 = $ 1.39 Billion
213,000,000 commons @X = X
Let's hypothetically say P's were made whole at 1.39B to commons, then for every additional $213M after, it would make commons worth $1 if you assumed the stated value of $1B that is being implied or a sale that brought in substantially more. When people say things like $7 a share, it'd have to bring in around 2.9B for that kind of price for example.
Or
Let's use the numbers being bandied out in filings which is close to 1B in equity currently. If an EC is formed and let's say they work out a 75/25 split on Ps and Commons, that would leave $250M to commons or $1.17/share
I think it's fair to say the floor is somewhere near that number of $1.17 assuming an EC is formed, CODI is dropped, and the value of equity is $1B.
Any thoughts?
BINGO...and great post. Don't listen to all the idiots on here who have no clue what they are talking about.
EC here is HUGE, and again refer to the docket filings 650 and 614 to see why it looks good for one.
https://cases.primeclerk.com/breitburn/Home-DocketInfo
I think one should read both docket filings 614 and 650 and then you should feel pretty good about owning here...
You are right in that he is putting the burden on Breitburn and docket filing 614 is IMO an awesome filing that corners the debtors based on the false statements and lies they have made. Bienenstock is a good attorney as you mentioned but also give weight to the presence of Sussman and Godfrey being on board. This is the same firm that helped the EC in the Washington Mutual case not only survive but have a major piece in the POR that led to current company WMIH...Together they clearly make a strong case and have experience in winning on these kinds of things. And in docket filing 650 with a letter from the SEC recommending an EC, that should carry the equivalent of a hammer.
If there is an EC then that changes the ballgame for people worried about the shady current management who gives out executive bonuses while trying to kill equity, as the EC will then get in and fight for shareholders and render them helpless.
If that happens then you can do the math from there on, as it shows that this stock would be worth well over what it is at now. Remember here that Brietburn currently lists $1BILLION in Equity.
Of course if an EC isn't formed or denied then that changes things, but again it appears the judge would have to completely ignore the facts if he were to do that. Again I suggest everyone reading docket filings 614 and 650. The link is below:
https://cases.primeclerk.com/breitburn/Home-DocketInfo
Also not to get too conspiratorial and off the deep, but sometimes the timing of those articles are planned for a specific purpose, whether it is to start building a trail in the search index, or more often, to signal to someone that the train may be leaving the station and it's time to get a ticket if you want to ride it. Let's hope that is the case here. Regardless, it's great to read that.
I liked what we saw today. The rain and thunderstorms we have had over the last week appear to have moved on (in noth traders and board posters) and hopefully they will stay away and bother someone else. We were back to a nice steady rise on lower volume, and ideally we continue that flight path until a big development happens that could launch us into a new Mario Brothers drainpipe.
Not that it has anything at all to do with Advaxis, but about a month ago I got into Twilio (TWLO) around $38 and it went on a similar volatile ride from $38-$42 daily for several weeks where it was just getting played with by those who could. Eventually they moved on, and then the stock went back to rising again daily and it hit $58 today, so hoping that we take a similar path.
I beg to differ....and so do many others.
Thanks Dew, that's great info to have....Also I got your msg earlier about the sticky but I cant respond to PMs because I dont have a membership. Thanks though.
I was just referencing the fact that some people are under the assumption that if a stock is trading say at $14, that it would receive an offer at $100 and it doesn't work like that. So there are a lot of milestones ahead that we need to pass before anything like that becomes realistic, but run up on our own to 30,40,50, and then the tendered offer could in fact be something large. Fingers crossed.
This is just speculation on my part, but one thing I find interesting is that both Dan O'Connor and the COO Gregory Mayes, were at ImClone and played significant roles in its sale to Eli Lilly in 2008 for $6.5B. (This was post scandal, if you remember they had a drug they thought was going to get passed and it was rejected which led to mass insider trading including jail for Martha Stewart and they had nothing to do with that), so what was impressive is the company still rallied to sell it for that much to Eli Lilly after all that trouble.
The caveat was that Carl Icahn raided the company in 2006 and forced that sale, so obviously both of these guys also have experience with him.
This really is something that I think will ultimately be a huge advantage, and that's the management team's experience. It's not their first rodeo and they obviously know how to complete any acquisition, and have deep roots with a lot of big players and people. You have to think that as long as one of these drugs hits, that either Advaxis is going big on its own, or will be scooped up. Of course there is a big difference between being bought now for $20-$30, than making it there organically on its own, and then being bought for double that amount. Would love to see this thing run up like a bullet train and then pave the way for a deal after that, at an even larger amount.
Potentially exciting times.
Yeah except for the fact that we never really reached a flatline equilibrium. K's and P's crossed paths a few times but not U's, yet people on here continued to be defiant and say down with Preferred's, I will never buy them even though my U's won't get me as many new shares! That's akin to the Revolutionary War when the British said we will continue to march side by side out in the open while our opponents hide in trees and ditches and pick us off rows at a time. Completely made no sense...But that just goes to show you how mentally abused some were by the wear and tear of many years of being in this stock, that near the end, they couldn't even function properly to make the right financial decision on what class to own.
And they will still come on here and defend their decision and spin it, even though it makes literally no financial sense whatsoever. Anyone who held on to or purchased more U's vs. converting into P's....left money on the table, and that's the bottom line. Now however, that's a moot point and we all move forward together, and hope for the best. Everyone certainly deserves it!
Yeah that makes a tremendous amount of sense because as the P Holder you now claim to be, that would devalue your portfolio. This is akin to you eating at a deli and paying a cashier and handing him $20 for your $10 order. When he goes to hand you your $10 in change back, you stick your chest out and say I only want $5 back. When he looks at you in a bizarre way, you then tell him cashiers are too greedy and getting $5 back is the same as $10.
Voo I still think you should not grant releases and sue Jamie Dimon, and represent yourself. What you could get from a reality show would far and away outweigh any recovery.
Who "confirmed this" ? Not disputing you, but just would like to know what type of confirmation you got. Reason being I was in my local branch today giving them my ballot. I asked this specifically and the broker didn't know, he got on the phone with the national office, and they also said they don't know.
I think it's pretty clear in the materials mailed out, that you are going to be able to add shares after the voting date of Feb 9th as long as you declare giving releases for those new shares before the release expiration date. The problem is these brokers are all clueless. In their defense, most have no idea, but at the same time, you'd think each brokerage house would call an internal meeting and put out a list of answers to the same asked questions. How hard would that be, but then again I digress...
But for anyone wanting a report on ST. The local branch broker said he would mail them on Friday, and I asked why not now. He then said well they will be there, dont worry and I asked again why not now. He logged in on the computer and said, oh, there is a new update. And it asked him to fax it instead. So be vigilent, ask questions, and go in person if you can. If I hadn't, he wouldn't have even seen the note from the main office telling him he needed to fax our ballots.
WTF are you talking about. Did you READ the DS? They are cancelling common equity out, and worse there is no equity committee to fight for it. The judge denied that motion...And anyone looking for a comparison to make to WAMU, WAMU had an equity committee appointed and is why they are where they are today. Much different than this.
Anyone looking into this should do their own DD and read the filings from the court, and not your blind fanboy advice. Get a clue man, do some reading.
Yeah my bad, I read that wrong. But wow, I hope your guesses are right. Under the current 70/30 split a current P share would fetch you 26 NewCo shares instead of 18.6 if 40% P holders don't grant releases.
There is no F'n way however that 40% of P holders will forget to submit or not grant releases unless TPS isn't going to grant releases or there is a consortium of P holder ballers out there that want to sue the unreleased parties.
I am personally hoping that VooDoo doesn't grant releases and sues JPM and represents himself shirtless, while getting a reality TV deal on either E or MTV. I would watch that and be pulling for him.
I was actually thinking about this exact same thing today. Funny you bring it up.
I think you are dead on but I would wager the numbers are off on your thinking. I think you meant less than 60% commons and less than 25% Ps will return ballots based on your later writing that Ps are more educated, but I get the point.
I think that not only are P holders probably more educated, but the difference in cost. In regards to commons, many people throw hail marys at pennies based on tips they read, friends advice, newsletters, pump and dumps, etc.., and with how long this case has gone on, there are probably several who have no clue what is going on other than looking at their portfolio and seeing that they still own it. So there are probably a large amount of people that fall in this category that may be in it for a few hundred to a few thousand. Collectively added together, who knows how much of a % this represents. Then you add on the poor pre seizure guys, ex employees, or just your basic ma and pa's who live in the state of Washington and thought it was a good buy because they were the local bank. I suspect many people like those will lose their shares.
The P holders because of the price, well I like to think that if you bought a stock somewhere between $15-$1000/share along the way, you kind of pay attention to what the hell is going on. I dont think there will be a mass loss for P holders not turning in ballots. I couldnt begin to give %'s but I think much less than 10% for the Ps. Dont think it will be 60% for commons, lower than that.
It sucks for people because of all the screwing, I mean some are gonna get screwed and they even know they need to turn ballots in but just will not know how to!.... but at the same time you shouldnt be in this market if you aren't 100% on top of things. And we will all benefit for staying on top of things because of forfeited shares.
Thank you sir, your answers appreciated.....And Catz I want looking for a set in stone answer per se as I know there really isn't one on all things "Twilight Zone" related, just trying to get opinions from some of the people on here who I respect and opinions I value (yours included), so we can stimulate some discussion outside the traditional and repetitive stuff that gets asked 4,000x a day on the U board such as family favorites like "where are my ballots at!!!" , "Just you wait Commons will get more than 50%, I knew it thats why i baught them", and "Im a non US Shareholder, should I go to my embassy and get a ballot".
So Claw going off of these dates, let me ask you a few questions that stem from a 2 part question....
PART 1.Let's just say for arguments sake you own 1,000 P shares presently. You want to vote so you submit this back to your broker by Feb 3rd. Your shares are going to be locked up and that is that....
PART 2 On let's say Feb 15th or a date in that area, you decide to pounce on another buying opportunity (maybe the price is so beaten down by this point and its value or you just decide to buy more, whatever it doesn't really matter the reason). You purchase 2000 additional Ps. Now obviously you can't vote on those shares, but you can still grant releases which you do to get NewCo shares. You have to have that documented to your broker by Feb 22nd so, you immediately do that.
You now own 3,000 P shares. 1000 of them you voted on, and are locked/2000 of them you didnt vote on, but granted releases to.
My questions then are:
1) Of the additional 2000 shares you purchased, do you actually have to submit releases for those, or does the original vote you sent in for the first 1000 represent your intentions for all your holdings and serve as a copy?
2) If you do have to submit releases for the additional 2000 shares you bought after Feb 15th, will those shares then also be locked after your broker receives your releases, even though you weren't allowed to Vote Yes or No to the plan with these shares, since the Feb 9th deadline has passed?
Im assuming here that the symbol for safety here is once your shares are locked, you are good to go with your broker. And of course the simple answer is just get it all in by Feb 3rd, however my questions are geared more toward what happens if you act after Feb 9th but before Feb 22nd.