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I'm working to 1383-5 as more optimistic target for a pull back, perhaps 1400 as potential target during next week...unless euro land really does go to h_ll in a hand basket.
Seems many have targets of 1350-52 and 1365. They seem like reasonable points to see if mkt is going to push forward or start a retest of support.
Otherwise, expecting some whipsaw action on Monday and by Tues sometime expecting the market to quiet down in front of Fed mtg on Wed. Should be an interesting week.
Thinking also market will be disappointed by Fed ('cause I don't sense that they are into doing QE3 as yet but may extend some current p/operations).
So think we may see a rise into the Fed meeting and perhaps a rise afterwards...then a good short say on late Wed, perhaps Thurs.
Just a working theory at this point...will modify my thinking as we see actual market response to next week news and where logical short and long areas shape up on charts.
Note: My apology if this turns out to bd a duplicate post...looks like I didn't get the submit button correctly so do ing this agan. Mike
Been to Westminster before small, but quaint little town as I remember. Thought that area or CO or say Durango area would be nice one day to live in. We're in Colorado Springs...pretty central and must say have a beautiful view of Pikes Peak...
Thx for followup thoughts on CAT. Very insightful
Glen...btw. My sense here is that you got that 'indecision' idea on the market on target. As a more general, macro type thought...what we see in June/ early July and Oct time frames is the tension of the market over reacting to news...and then markets ratcheting back and forth along the bottom and a retake of the 9 ema in the short term....
Like Jerry has been saying (most of bad news probably baked in here).
So even though I'm looking for an undercut of 1260...& perhaps we get some whipsaw over next couple of weeks if I get this right...or we could just move higher here and the undercut and test that I think is coming will be put off until Oct time frame.
That said, we have to draw a box around Sunday to Fed day on Tue/Wed -- we should some continual whipsaw.
Also vix options expire Wed...that actually may put downside pressure on the vix (so something to watch for - so XIV may be a good trade Tuesday for day or two as a for instance...).
Otherwise, the typical short to mid term trade here on news like we are going to see next week is to go the opposite of the initial market reaction.
We'll see -- but I have mostly cash, except for position in stocks like DGIT (buyout candidate) and even if I miss the market move...thinking my work this weekend will turn up interesting trades for us regardless -- at any rate, will try to pass those along as I can get to it.
--Note: It may not be until Sunday - we had golf ball size hail here in Colorado the other day so been working with adjusters and on our Cars, Roof etc and have appointment with adjustor and roofing guy on Saturday...).
Just wanted to put this out there while thinking about it. Mike
thx, Stockmine...I was really afraid I torqued everybody off last night... My apologies to rotor as well. WIll gently peak under the lid at any of you guys follow up comments...Will get to them... Just tied up and not sure how many hammers I might have to deal with later on my late night posts.... Mike
Oddlot: TLT, TBT, TMV, SBND--
TLT often not as reflective (imho) of the bubble trade in bonds when fear guages running consistently high. Some may get trapped when stocks turn...but bonds (and TLT, LQBD) often just used as a hedge for traders. So TLT/TBT not always the greatest trade at times. However right with you on the idea that TBT and TMV (3x direxion) may rock in roll here. However, as I'm doing some analysis.
Thinking of taking a 'flyer' so to speak in SBND - it is the 25 yr+ bond short. Its not real liquid..but bid/ask not bad. So thinking that actually is a safer mid term type position 'cause its not being used as much by intraday and short term momentum traders.
At any rate...looking at TBT, TMV (if I can get it in $48-50 area or less will likely take the trade on TMV). But find SBND intriguing here too.
At any rate, been studying this as we have gone back and forth on it. Hopefully gives us some added food for thought on this trade. Mike
Glen, on CAT.. a couple of comments below.
Before I get to that tied up today and realize I probably tweaked a few folks on the board last night. Just a nit of mine that at times I think we are all getting like a bunch of crazy old Uncles (and internet seems to be adding to that). I'm not immune to that criticism of course (and sometimes stand behind the idea that I can be just as crazy or more at times as everyone else...So my apologizes if I didn't use balance last night on some of my comments to some of you. That said...will revisit some of this later. Again my apologies, if I offended (and I probably did) but haven't reviewed some posts on board from last night as yet...). Will do so a bit later I hope.
That said...some comments on how I use CAT--
1--It's not that I like CAT necessarily. I watch it like BIG does to get a heads up on the so called risk on/off trade on various time frames. Use SMH (the semi conductors,) IWM (small caps), IYR (REITs like SPG - always an interesting chart ot look at - if that one sells off out of middle of nowhere that usually is big red flag), also use FCX, RIO, UTX, MMM, GE, in diff ways to do same...
2--That said, take at Monthly & Weekly on CAT in the Oct/Nov time frames and late June/July. Generally a distinctive pattern of putting in bottoms.
3--For instance, look at Monthly candle and subsequent reversal in June 2010 at approx $60. Now look at Oct 3 weekly high of $77 and the fact taht candle literally hugged the 200 ema and had a nice reversal thereafter. Look now at the recent (last week) near touch of 200 ema around 81-82 I think. So your short against CAT may be close to winding down. In particular late June/early July generally be good for long trade on industrial and commodities. So next week could see some great whipsaw action...but its close to actually going more long some of these names, rather than short.
4--Hope that gives added perspective. By the way have an input for Oddlot in a few minutes. Will try to catch on Stockmines post and others in a bit... Up to my eyeballs at moment in some work on the markets I'm trying to get done (will try to forward that on to everyone in a another psot this weekend or a bit later).
OT: Conspiracy, off beat Mkt theories and the like--
I posted a couple of tough comments in previous posts.
Perhaps this input on reflection is some background on this as to why I thought it....but provides a more reflective mood on the whole thing (perhaps this will take some sting off the comments I made).
At any rate, here goes--
When very young, I remember that some relatives would tell me really outrageous things that had no basis in fact.. that even to date makes no sense but they somehow carried these weird conspiracy theories around about the gov't, the Church or some other thing.
I remember thinking that '...gee that was nice...' but actually thinking they were totally senile. So now I'm seeing this type of thing (that I thought about a particularly strange relative)...now all the time about so many folks. The internet at times seems to be the culprit (in a sense). May not a culprit exactly..more a 'force multiplier' for stupidity and ignorance I guess...
On the other hand...in a very sick way I see that I'm appealed by this stuff too (gee --- I watch the great stuff on the History Channel and then also at times that really childish conspiratorial crap like a lot folks like too) -- even though that I know that the people saying it are clearly idiots.
So I reflect on this and I think -- What is it that allows us all to be duped by the most stupid in the population out there?
Is it just some genetic fault we have that we have to obey some leader to our own peril or death...? 'cause the more charismatic speakers among us have to lead us, despite how pathetically stupid they may be (when you actually think about it).
So on a board like this I'm wondering at times, when so many intelligent folks are here why do they (and me too) so easily duped by the dumbest characters that have access to the internet and a web page?
Why is it that all of us at times are open to that level of duping by the sleaziest and lowest of IQs among us out there?
Do we 'lap it up' cause it suits some fear or concern we have -- so all of us (and I really mean all of us) somehow allow ourselves to be duped not by the 'smartest guys in the room' but quite often by the dumbest?
So is it some genetic trait we all have to listen to the most forceful among us even though they aren't necessarily the smartest?
Now has the advent of the internet made that such a big problem that the dumbest out there are taking the more intellectual among us for more of a ride than our predecessors ever experienced (when the internet was not available?).
The whole thing is just really curious to me (but disturbing as well).
Why are all of us that have these immense analytic skills so easily duped by the dumbest and sleaziest among us?
Why is it occurring at an increasing rate?
Just wondering whether the combination of certain genetic attributes we all have are increasingly working against when the stupidest among us so easily have a voice via the internet, TV and the like.
Why for instance -- if they sound forceful, & then exploit our fears that we basically set aide our ability to question them on what they are saying and why?
If we hear someone that sounds incredibly authoritative...Are we just willing to set aside our more logical questions (like...'is there even a shred of rationality in the statement being made here)? Is there some kind of actual documented proof other than innuendo?. But all of us at times just seem to set that aside all too easily.
I'm thinking now that after reflection that I do it and we all do it. So how do I criticize the fact that people chase conspiracies around (when I do it too)? How do I make myself more honest here -- while trying to question certain posters here on conspiracies and the like.
What is it about all of us that allows us to listen to someone just because they have a strong voice and perceived set of principles..and not willing to stand back and say 'hey wait a minute...'? I'm just as guilty as everyone I think.
At any rate, hopefully that explains some of my earlier comments to two posts prior. Mike
Thanks Haha. You know I hear a lot traders say how 'V' bottoms never work for long...But if you actually go back and take and expanded view of longer term charts...you see how very wrong thatidea at times can. We have a V bottom of late --- I'm in the camp that says that bottom will be violated.. But if I were to book odds on whether I was correct or not...I would take the odds against me. Regardless. We need to just step aside here on the markets except for short term scalps -- there is just too much happening between now and June 20. However...once we get thru this junk we will see what the charts and tecnicals tell us to do at end of June to August. Right now just urge caution.
Just wondering but do these folks warning of impending implosion have anything other than their statements that an impending implosion is coming?
I would like to read it if they do. But most of this stuff is a circular argument on how great they are, how great their newsletter is,how grand the actual conspiracy is to our doom... but has little or no meat ever that gives an interesting insight or set of facts you can get you actually can get your hands around.
We all wonder about this kind of stuff. But these guys are as much as 'smoke and mirrors' as they claim to uncover for our benefit.
As well, there is nothing here on most of this stuff that can allow you to do any kind of technical (or even fundamental) analysis.
Its more its to stoke our fears to get us to buy into their newsletter and nonsense as best as I can tell.
Yes, there are all kinds of conspiracies out there likely.... and market will implode at some point again...but those that try to predict that have nothing they actually know for a fact...they are just like the proverbial broken clock...
Regardless, if all this is a conspiracy..folks like this not smart enough to figure out the nature and timing of that conspiracy to our peril. So their are unwittingly a part of the same conspiracy on our time, temperament and the like... They are just too stupid to figure that one out.
At any rate, most of this stuff has nothing to do with actual analysis.
More superstition and hyping the more ape minded part of most folks' brains on how screwed we all are all the time.
Are we just suppose to go around and act like Chicken Little? And worry that the sky is falling?...yet now we have a savior via their blog or newsletter? Geez sign up all the chicken littles out there...
How much time or money do we have to spend on this to get that one nugget of golden insight on all the grand conspiracies out there? And what does it do for us even if we got that great nugget from the wise one that writes this crap?
At any rate, we have real world analysis we can work with rather than superstition and innuendo...so just having a hard time figuring out why this type of stuff that keeps coming out like cockroaches from an over abundance of morons with access to the internet and how these cockroaches helps to further our analytical enterprise like we try to do here.
Just asking...
Rotor, I like most of your posts, but Silver is showing what we would expect here, just like Copper.
We a have a deflationary environment.
Gold can work at times in this environment. Silver is a much harder long trade when deflationary pressures present.
Normally one would expect Silver to go down here. So if JPM massively short then we should expect Silver to massively go down (thus taking advantage of the normal scenario in conditions like this).
Regardless, there are no clear footsteps here of JPM. Doesn't mean in the small commodity markets that the bigger players aren't jerking us around...but really hard to catch their footsteps like they where muddy footprints that we can all see.
At any rate, the big boys at times will trade these markets and generally are long gone before we catch them. So bottom line this is just more urban legend back to junk we saw on JPM in 2009-2010 like this. Regardless, Silver is still in a move down in mid term like copper and Gold. So if JPM shorting it...we should be happy and climb aboard the train 'cause down is where Silver should go here anyway. The Silver chart is a piece of crap (and it should be if looking at deflationary pressure present right now and that like will stay persistent for a bit longer).
By the way love those charts on PZG, etc you a couple of others will try to update a few posts of mine on what looks to be the best of the best. Miners are the better bet longer term I think than a specific trade into Gold, Silver, Platinum, Copper, etc. Miners overly beaten down and appears institutional buying AUY and many others as they dip.
Glen...yep...actually I'm a student of that type of thing and it was quite incredible how he mopped all those dopes we call Senators all over the Senate floor.
You...know I have my issues with JPM, GS, BAC...but we know 'stupid' when we see it and the unfortunately the Congress (House & Senate) demonstrates how stupid we have allowed our Congressman to become.
So I must say I did really like Dimon's calm and cool demeanor in front of the so called people's representatives.
Just wonder at times what the kind apes we have become to keep allowing Republicans and Democrats to be elected that are this so unrelentingly stupid on such a consistent basis....
I'm with you on that...that is the real question isn't it?
Will they jerk thi sthing up to 1352 or 1365, leaving me flat footed on my nice trade...or will I get some confirmation that I avoided the big boyz and their use of the automated programs that look for certain criteria to drag the market up or down....tough call...
At any rate, made a fair return on a leveraged long the vix...so will be taking some money off regardless (and just wait and see where the big boyz will take the market next week...)
Glen...this action to me typical of market waiting on Options Ex and likely we will some weird action in front of June 20 Fed meeting. See my other post...lays out divergences I'm seeing (but I did try to clearly lay out what undercuts my argument (e.g., I see too much saying we have more downside over next few days or so...), but I do see things that are under cutting my argument...
So hopefully I spelled that out clearly in the post I just made a few minutes ago... Typical market indecision in front a big news weekend and week...., Market climbing that wall of worry so to speak on low vol, but underling measure not necessarily clear one way or the other.... What i see is that typical measures of trader fear are not abating all that much..that to me tends to be bearish in short to mid term (until that trader negative sentiment is removed).
Some Interesting Divergences --
I see SPX and DIA attempt to make new low vol runs to previous intra day highs (and challenge yesterday's highs). However, action so far in negative sentiment indicators not confirming. As well action weak in AAPL (needs to clearly get into 575-81 to confirm bull run; GLD & SLV trade weak (GLD okay here, but not showing that it will support this move up). On other hand divergences can go either way. Most of this to me still seems like a follow sucker's rally (in the case, some short covering in front of Options Ex), but its hard to find any robust underlying sentiment indicators, stocks, etc we typically look at that are really confirming this move).
On the other hand...this is a close call here and we could get a nice upside move, especially if AAPL, CAT, GLD/SLV, Semis etc get going. On bull side, RIO and FCX not too bad looking. Point is that this move is weak...traders covering in front of Options Ex, but very mixed when looking at all kinds of things that we check to see determine the veracity of the move. So could go either way here (I just don't see anything that confirms that the move we are seeing is other than a dead cat bounce). However, longer term testing interesting support levels so as many suggest here most of the test at support in 1310 or so area could be over. Just suspicious...but I see nothing today that confirms my point of view on all this...so will let market confirm one way or the other in next couple of days.
However...I am seeing some intra day buying on DOW and other indices and that is improving the technical posture.. so undercuts my thinking on my somewhat more neutral to bearish stance than most on board.
At any rate, mixed here if bull or bear...though some measure I look at working against my short to mid term bear scenario.. I fully expect a nice pop after some of this worked through... Just not convinced as yet that it will be here other than for a low vol pop into longer term resistance.
Again...I see nothing that confirms the bull or bear case right now...but obviously negative sentiment indicators remain alarmingly high...If they cool off then we are good to go for the resumprion of a nice wave up. Mike
Same here (on luck related to switching sides...). Seeing whipsaw, move to upside so far looks weak but could extend in front of Options Ex. Otherwise, negative sentiment indicators seem to be making ground up every day, inching up a bit at time over previous day. Jury out on how day will end up. So far though, still sticking with the idea that upside somewhat limited and more risk to downside. Decent bounce today otherwise.
Glen, Buy the way look at recent double top in April-May time frame this year...and similar double top in July - Aug 2011.
We are undercutting that previous double in a significant way and that was a nasty down trip. So if looking for overlapping support areas might be good to take half the move of that entire trip down from 1380 down to 1100. Just as an interesting take on this..
At any rate thinking out loud...but that is 180 its on the down move so 90 its would be half of that.
So off of 1100 bottom would be 1190. Just another way to look at it.
Likely now within 1-2, perhaps 3 posts of being done But don't have much more say here...
Just interesting when I looked at your chart...Hadn't really thought of it before. My preferred target is in the 1175 area (but had my eyes on 1190-95 due some other things I was looking at in the monthly and quarterly charts).
At any rate...Just think we should be contained by 1295, but if that fails not sure that 1265-75 will hold that long and we will search for 1225 perhaps down to that sub 1200 area I keep eyeing.
Strange, I'm normally a bull. So when I turnaround like this it makes even me pay attention... LOL.... Mike
OT EC_Further on the Down the Road
You know I don't do this often enough but playing some big time Eric Clapton (Layla , Further on down the Road, Forever Man, etc), Allman Brothers, Traffic (John Barley Corn Must Die) along with the Fray, Green day, Cold Play, Smash Mouth, the LGBT Girls (Indigo Girls), Beatles (Revolution, Lady Madonna, etc), the more recent BB King duets (Ain't Nobody Home, Tired of your Jive, 'Drivin Wheel), Jackson Browne, Van Morrison (Domino, Coming Running), some J Geils, Gin Blossoms, Lynard Skynard (Whats that Smell, Call Me the Breeze), Rolling Stones (When the Whip comes down), ,Joe Cocker (Cry Me a River, Delta Lady), Little Feat, Who (Face the Face, Baba O'Reilly), Wings (Spirits of Ancient Egypt, Medicine Jar), Buffalo Springfield (For What is Worth), The Clash, Doors, Pure Prairie League , Santana (Smooth), Poco (Rose of Cimmarron), Cracker Boy (Uncle Kracker)...
I must say I don't do it it often enough.
Well at any rate, its a tough market, and a tough trade these days...perhaps 'Further on down the road' reminded me that maybe we will continue to gel here as a team (even that song not quite about that -- so its more the feeling first and perhaps the synthesis of the tunes I'm listening too tonight that drove me to this I think).
That at least is what got me started on this post was that great Eric Clapton Song...
Regardless, if not having as good nite as me right now -- well, take some time this weekend to listen to some old tunes (rock, jazz, classical music, country, etc..) or some just great movies to just put a more positive cherry on top of a stressful week perhaps month. Good luck folks.
By the way close to running out of posts here ...one of more prolific posting days -- so only have 2-3 left I think... Mike
Yes...I like that...so even though in my posts I'm looking for an undercut of those levels (say within a couple of weeks), this tends to work and we can see how the test works say at 1275 (if we get there) even if say 1265-66 is the double bottom of recent lows. Only thing is that if we aggressively take out 1294-1295...I have some suspicion that 1260-80 can hold in the mid term (so that is why I'm looking for say 1224, 1200, 1175, and worst case at moment 1155). In the meantime like the targets you have here and reasonable goal posts (even though I likely didn't get your touch down values quite right... Mike
ziko: ditto to Oddlot's post
rotor, would agree...could have been a lot worse. Caveats and interesting chart items... When looking at weekly 1306 very key on downside to hold, but as long as 1294-95 holds and we bounce back over 1306-10 then good to go. On upside to sustain rally we need 1331-32 taken out (9 ema on weekly) and then 1335 has to be aggressively taken out/held afterward. Then can maintain bullish posture.
However, if masses and really big time traders traders are reluctant to buy here and actually retreating into treasuries and or using spreads on vix more aggressively in coming days then likely we have an undercut to go either tomorrow morning or perhaps early to mid next week.
I'm thinking the line in the sand on S&P is 1295-1300. That is into (and somewhat below half of the May candle). Of course I've mentioned this before but I'm looking at these really nice set of candlesticks back to Aug to Oct 2011 on Weekly. Pull those up...
If I'm right we test those candlesticks in the next two weeks (likely towards the upside of those candles).
So my take on everything I'm seeing says that when plotting support and resistance...look to the less optimistic levels on up moves for a trend up within the range... that is if you have a good resistance point at upside...pick the mid channel instead. and look to the more extreme ranges of support being tested to downside.
Once fear and all other measures show us that a rally can be sustained...which could come quickly....then the opposite will be true. Right now everything is pointing to sustained selling pressure in the markets being the rule.
That said...a really interesting data point for folks to check out is the 100 sma on the Monthly - its at 1224 as I think I read my charts.
I'm actually looking for an undercut of that to say 1175 and then retake of 1224-50 in next week or so.
That test doesn't have to happen..and many measures are mixed here (so I'm hard pressed to say that I can get over 65-35 probability it will be hit).
That said,, we are bear flagging all over the place, but many stocks and some interesting sub sectors doing like gangbusters.
So even though I seem to be at big odds with most on board (except HaHa?) I think the move down will be swift, take everyone off guard and we will see a nice reversal candle we can live some time between now and say 2nd week of July...
We'll see. Interesting back and forth of late on board. I think its better now that we have all the negative bashing out. I just like that we all have our own way and when we compare notes that helps for me, perhaps others to really work our way thru this (and to find interesting mods to our systems...). So hope you guys get my spirit and never take my comments any other way but that way... Good luck folks.. Mike
CCI = Commodity Channel Index? Just saw this when looking for CCI on Fidelity ATP... If so...now need to track it and see if I can get good at it like many of the rest of yo.
AAPL, XLF etc
AAPL been making lower lows. Trying to get going but having trouble. 570-71 key area to hold, over 581 more bullish mkt wise. XLF attempting to double bottom at 13.98. Key to me is a takeout and hold of 1425-50 to support rally. Have many others like FCX, RIO. Not making lower intraday lows at least RIO anyway. CAT gettng close. I know Big likes some of these so I started tracking as well... at any rate, looking ugly overall. But indices may get some short cover into close.
re: CCI, ma's....
No fine on the details... I work strictly sma/ema, stochs (and I have a nifty little system there that will repost about later on stochs), and previous reversal candlesticks (depending on subsector (needs some fine tuning on the use of candles sticks whether we are talking SPX, DX, GLD, etc...
At any rate, a few of you folks keep talking about CCI and that I need to pull it up. I don't have stockcharts.com and don't remember that fidelity Active Trader Pro (ATP) uses it (so if someone knows...then please let me know. Otherwise I do use MACD, OBV and ADX from time to time depending on stock/etf/indice....
I do like Bulkowski and someone mentioned that the other day...so often use tremd lines/channels along with pattern analysis to get a heads up on things. I like that soem folks here use forks, elliott wave and will try to catch up on that...but not instrumental in my trading (but I do review those things for overlaps to what I'm using on various timeframes and charts... At any rate seeing DIA trying to bounce sub 12, 500...but still looking weak so far...
Glen, you 50 got me thinking. Actually I tend to use 9 ema 20, 50, 100 sma's and 200 ema on all time frames. Quite often notice that some of this stuff we watch tracks along 100 sma and 200 ema on certain intraday timeframes (down to the 1 min). As a for instance 200 ema on 30 min chart looks to be 1313., 100 sma on hourly looks to 1308. Will be interesting to compare notes between many of us this later
thx, I like hearing what you guys tgts are during. My take is that 1312 hit and 1313-135 not retaken then head lower somewhat fast after a failure to hold that bounce. Basically 80-20% ln favor lower lows based on various charts, indies, indicators, etc I'm watching intraday. If so good chance of extended lows tomorrow am unless some euro guy comes out of closet and says fixed everything...
Glen- That 162 pt was enough combined with today to bleed out over sold and get into OB territory. Divergences over pst three days appear to confirm that yesterday was likely letting us know that yesterday was a classic sucker's rally. Bigger money looks like taking off money a bit at a time into the moves up - so not as noticeable since they had time to do it...and likely they got some heavy exposure to volatility options spreads (hence the pressure on vix). Divergences here on vix been too stark so these upmoves looked contained (with likely more downside than we may initially be planning on in short to mid term. Still got today/tommorrow could see whipsaw in both directions between now and Mon/Tue
Thx Glen...I watch these things like a hawk. Reminds me of 08-09 (but not as bad)... But any time these sentiment indicators hold in then it will be tough for the indices to retake more bullish trends and ythe like. Of late my trading plan is to fade rallies into of end day, end shorts in AH or early am (usually the later) and fade the short appropx 30 min to hour prior to close. Then US mkt pops again. I just think that technique is now running out of gas and we may no longer get the more robust pops as we test that 125-35 area. Not sure but thinking that end of day has better chance to fade fast and the Fri am could be ugly. By the way...
My technique for using this indicators are to look at the logical case of looking at downside support...then look at the next level or two down...If these indicators then persist to indicate sustained fear among traders then I generally target lowers for support (which I think is why targets for now are undercutting most of folks). If thee fear guages coll off, then we get a really nice rally to upside...Just not seeing so thinks it a game of wacamo as we get into upside resistance on weekly and monthly charts.
TLT volatile intraday - heads up. Appears to breaking to upside, but not clear as yet, could just be false alarm or supporting a down move in TLT. Action very suspicious though
Fade any rallies here is what I'm doing (especially any end of day rallies).
For instance, still seeing still underlying selling pressure when looking .vix, tlt. Dollar attempting to hold daily 20 sma, so we'll how that goes.
Action in S&P looked to pierce over weekly 9 ema twice recently, but just not enough steam to take it out.
If S&P can take 1331 area, then 1335-40, would see 1352 to 1365.
Right now, negative sentiment indicators are largely tracking in bullish fashion (even though we are seeing some undercuts here and there.
Need to see TLT, VIX cool off as well as foreign 10 yr bonds, etc.
Right now .VIX at 23.40-23.60 area. If it springs into previous highs at approx 25 level and takes out then watch below. If vix just holds in this 23 to say 24.50 level thru Friday, then likely not much left in the UVXY/TVIX trade.
Generally been seeing Italian and Spanish bonds tracking higher on US market open (or a bit later) then moderating back a bit as European markets close. They look like they want higher yields and Italian bonds look to be gunning for 6.50 and Spain over 7 tomorrow am.
If not and they start retreating as well as TLT, VIX, then would expect 1330-1335 to be a target (but given late afternoon run yesterday and I think day before) we may actually see SPX attempt another move up...Just thinking it might just be a game of Wackamo in the 1300-40 area.
Note that vix took out daily 200 ema in a very bullish move and its trading above it now for 3 days. So vix really needs to give way here to support much of an upside move, Right now though it just looks like folks are intent on buying more protection into end of week.... despite it getting increasingly costly here to do so.
re TBT: Thx, Working to undercut of 14.71 low - say 14.60 perhaps less, then will enter TBT or TMV when bottoming confirmed. Otherwise may have the pick up the trade when 122-123 looks like a failure on TLT. Probably some good scalps both directions in the meantime.
I have some of Dave Eliott DVDs interesting system MAP system he use alway had an interesting way to tweak stochastics. Learned a lot from him. Pretty nice guy. Meet him in Denver after one of his lectures
Thx Oddlot on TLT, I won't buy there unless other measures of fear move aggressively down. Want to see TLT also break beneath 123 (weekly 9 ema and holding that and the mid May consolidation area). Otherwise, want to see it ramp up again as other fear indicators back off then will buy TMF or TBT there. Mike
VIX, TLT, etc - stubbornly high
FYI/Background on some of my comments in previous posts--
VIX--
Had nice bullish candle thru 200 ema and retested oit today and holding. the vix needs to trade below 21.50 and 20 to support any sustained rally to upside. Big Chart I think below...
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$VIX&p=D&b=4&g=0&id=p15059531525&a=177079200
Treasuries (Spain & Italy)--
Spain and Italian 10 yr treasuries appear to be ramping toward 7. Spain finished at $6.70 (range 6.52-6.83), Italy (6.02-6.30). If Italy crests towards 6.50 and Spain from 6.70 into 7 in next day ort would expect substantial market pressure.
Treasuries (US)--
TLT staying above mid May consolidation area between 123-124. TLT needs to falter here and gun for that level, then 122 and if action occurs, then rally to upside can be sustained.
Dollar (DXY)--
Trending off daily 20 sma. Bearish for market especially if in coming days 83.5075 area taken out and held.
Bottomline:
Every time we have sustained action on various fear gauges like this we tend to revisit recent bottoming lows (and usually breach them to downside). For SPX 100 weekly SMA at 1259, 200 weekly at 1229. However, I tend to like an undercut of that if we sell off. Back to 1170-75 area (that top of weekly candle on Oct 3 2011) or 1155 (thats into the action of early May 2010, with high vol distribution and test during that time frame of 200 ema. If the sentiment indicators don't buckle and keeping riding bullish moving avearges, then only conclusion for me in my work is that market has substantial sell off coming sooner rather than later. If my scenario holds 1335 will be the lid on any S&P upside moves as long sentiment indicators stay bearish and adhere to current up trend off of moving average. As write this, some of those indicators are tracking back as S&P holding over 1315 and trying to test 1320. SO may be very wrong here. But these are items I'm looking at underneath the hood to determine which case likely more to be sustained (right now I'm still thinking sustained fear rules, so Bears should be renewing shorts into resistance and bulls should step aside until bulls can get confirmation otherwise. Mike
oops I think I messed up and I was looking at snoot's chart, my apologies. At any my comments where on the downward forks which are snoot's it looks like. Good luck folks...Mike
Pokersam, looking at the forks you have to me it looks there is likely 60-40 chance you'll break mid line fork (just based on situations where we've had this much volatility in past). If so you may look at 1225-30 range (however, based on your other supports, seems like 1230-1250 likely the area you would want to look for (if mid line breaks)..
At any rate, the targets I'm working are 1200 +/- 50 (so 1150-1250).
For my targets to work,
--Dollar needs to hold at this level approx 82.50 and shouldn't violate 82 for long).
--VIX needs to stay above 200 ema (above 21.65, but slight undercut works as well).
RIght now there are too many negative indicators that are showing resilience, so I have to lean toward that today is just short covering and that we will violate 1295 soon, then 1275 and we'll see if gest to that 1200 level or thereabouts. Thx.
Thx Qwik, watching Italy and Spain 10 yr bonds...they've been climbing all morning. Italy at 6.24%, Spain at 6.78. Vix riding over 200 ema for 2 days. Looks to me that this pop up today likely to fail later today or tommorrow, unless we see some of these negative sentiment indicators relax very soon.
http://www.bloomberg.com/quote/GSPG10YR:IND
http://www.bloomberg.com/quote/GBTPGR10:IND
Oddlot thx on GLD/FXE clarification(I re-posted below for reference). I have similar targets FXE 117, GLD: 135, 128-130 is weekly 200 ema, worst case looks like 120-22 were 50 is on Monthly.
Caveat is I see very good support at in the 143-145 area where GLD made the nice reversal on July 1 last year. Commodities tend to retest those previous reversal points and put in a stand there.
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"...to be clear, I think we will make 135-140 GLD before we start up for good. And we might go lower than that.
Also, IMHO FXE will go to 116-118 and a declining FXE will pressure gold. When this target is achieved, one has to reassess re gold.
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OT: DGIT, Portfolio moves
--DGIT buyout candidate
--Otherwise put most of my wife's account and mine in cash. Looking to re-short the market likely next week sometime.
--I did buy a high yield bond fund - some of these funds tend to starting turning around prior to or as TLT consolidates at highs. I have WAHYX. JNK is the Barclays ETF. However they can pull back at times when TLT rifles up...but generally not a bad idea to start looking in this direction.
Comments on DGIT--
On DGIT have a scalp trade that I'm running in it. May keep a portion over weekend (they apparently have put themselves up for sale and had one offer of $20 they rejected the other day). That is at least some of the background news, rumor on it. Fundamentally not a bad stock, high short interest and chart shaping up after nice move the other day.
Oddlot--Agree on gold.
I saw some buying in gold and junk bonds mid day so posted my thought that we would S&P attempt retest of early am highs. The indices did do that.
That said, I'm looking for gold to retreat to $1450-1480 area. Worst case 1150-1200. Not sure it will get that low but these are lower support targets I have to keep Gold trend intact form a bullish standpoint. I think Gold actually is fine here when looking at the broader view.
This looks to me like a normal correction on a commodity like this. once that bounce occurs then 'katy bar the door.'
When interest rates finally start to move up several months down the road (perhaps longer), then Gold likely will be a dead trade. Not sure.
Right now its largely a surrogate at times for the fear trade, but its hard to trade commodities (except to downside) when the larger fear is recession, deflation, etc in the mid term.
The technicals all seem to confirm that. Regardless of my fundamental comments, the technicals look clear to me on Gold (essentially fade the rallies for the short term).
However, I like the miners overall, they have shown strength (in particular I like AUY, EXK, GFI, GOLD, AEM and quite a few others I have as good stocks in next tier down. I think GOld miners to trade sideways a bit for now, that they will have a hard time getting going as long as pressure on Gold/Silver...but these stocks I believe are starting see inflows and pull backs should be should bought on significant pull backs(especially when Gold/Silver retreats)for any particular time frame.
At any rate, I'm not advocating a buy of the commodity or the miners...I made a nice scalp trade the other day on both. Sitting on the sidelines for now and they are on watch list like the XLE ETF (and stocks in that group). Mike