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awk, this part
sounds a lot like the earlier Wave / Samsung video that showed the pc turning off when the user and trusted device left the office.
Wave collaborated with Trusted Logic at MWC to demonstrate an industry-first mobile security demonstration based on the Trusted Computing Group Mobile Phone specifications. Unlocking a self-encrypting drive with a mobile phone is one of many applications that can take advantage of an implementation of the MTM. This demonstration showed how a phone can be used as an authentication token, and how the Trusted Foundation technology for ARM’s TrustZone can be applied to secure applications that require use of the full processor for high performance security functions.
zen, I tend to think you are
right about the causality of the recent sell off.
Of course the missing element to offset those supply side pressures was the lack of a demand side. But I think the supply side will disappear quickly following the next cc. If it does, the short side traders will find no significant offered side supply to allow them to cover their shorts in a profitable way. They are sitting on mark to market gains and confusing that with locked in gains.
Dig's observations today concerning the trading pattern reveals an effort by short side traders to push prices lower rather than to establish short positions at the best possible levels. It also speaks to their limited ability to add to their short positions at these price levels. This all points to an slow grind up in prices as supply dries up and demand grows as news and results improve.
cypher, that is a remarkably concrete
set of action steps you have outlined. But I think you have done the maths incorrectly as you have set some economic variables as constants in your simplistic projection. I doubt you actually know the current state of affairs within Wave in terms of their cash flows. I think you are wrong in your projections and so I reject them.
now jermat, that is untrue,
the definition of working capital as profit is incorrect.
Here's a link to the correct definition:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Working_capital
now waveytrain, you know this is untrue.
It is ture that Wave usually reports near the end of the allowable timeframe. But they have never publically stated a reasion for doing so. But there are many ,real world concerns in the production of audited reports why this is the case.
Now, the results they publish are always produced by the accountants for the preceding quarter period and so they are not able to publish results for the current period. The contrary is not legally permissable. Thus it cannot be the case that they are waiting for something good to report in their SEC filings.
awk, I like the bookends for the leaflet
first page:
We build security that starts with the device
last page:
Because the IT perimeter has vanished, security must start with the device
now uniguy, you said you are right.
I just pointed out that elements of the DOD, MSFT and NSA disagree with you.
Do you need every single last DOD, MSFT and NSA employee to disagree with you or will a significant number of decision makers suffice? It would be a high bar to expect all employees...
uniguy, if I understand you
correctly you are saying that you are right
and therefore that
all of
NSA
DOD
INTC
MSFT
DELL
GM
BP
BASF
PWC
SAMS
are wrong.
Let me ponder that.
Here's the print copy of Dell's Win8 comments:
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-03-07/dell-seeks-edge-over-apple-s-ipad-with-a-business-friendly-windows-tablet.html
Dell is developing a business-friendly tablet that works with Windows 8, and the company will start selling computers running the new Microsoft Corp. (MSFT) software “on the exact day” it becomes available
The goal is to entice business customers by running Microsoft’s Office applications -- something Apple Inc. (AAPL)’s tablet isn’t designed to do -- and letting the device connect securely to corporate networks.
now jermart, you know
that is just not true. Firstly, SKS is not a moron. Moron is a term that refers to an adult with a mental age of between 8 and 12. While there are morons, SKS is clearly not one. On the other hand, the use of "moron" for someone who isn't one is an insulting term.
Secondly, only insiders truely know what the accounting numbers will show at this time, so by definition, not "everyone" knows.
But it will be no surprise for Wave investors if the firm does not show positive accounting earnings. SKS has repeatedly told investors over the past decade that accounting profitability is a secondary goal to achieving market growth. Nearly all investors understand this and, while not all are happy about it, it is the accepted standard. Investors know this already.
What is unknown is how quickly revenues are growing and the uptake of SMB of TC. The signs here are positive as Wave has added to staff in order to pursue growth.
Also, SKS adopted the bullish ATM financing method. Taking an oportunistic approach to financing means that Wave is highly likely to be generating positive cashflows from current business to fund operations but is willing to sell shares at loftier levels to fund higher growth.
The function of the ATM has been misunderstood by some to be a sign of weakness in cashflow and funding alternatives. Nothing could be farther from the truth. In the past, if Wave needed funds with uncertainty, SKS has not hesitated to make use of private placement funding methods. That SKS has not resorted to such methods is the first clue that the funding dynamic has changed. SKS knows that there are enough funds coming in the door to keep operations going. SKS also knows the positive revenue growth pattern and ever increasing news flow will eventually cause Wave's share price to increase. When those higher share prices occur, SKS is likely to make use of the ATM to raise funds.
Something SKS is not willing to do currently as he knows the share price does not reflect the strength of Wave.
unixguy, now you know that's
just not true. Wave has always waited until nearly the last allowable day to announce their results. That is the process they have adopted as standard practice. It would he highly irregular to change it now.
Now jermart,
you know very well that the incremental 20,000 shares that Wave might sell, if it chose to, would not be apparent to anyone else due to it's small amount and the anonymity of trading accounts. I have to disagree with such musings in the lack of concrete evidence.
Nonetheless, 20,000 shares would easily be absorbed in the natural flows of the day.
What do you trust here?
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-03-05/ford-to-send-customers-touch-screen-controls-update-after-rankings-plunge.html
Ford Motor Co. (F), which has plunged in quality rankings, on March 8 will begin sending more than 300,000 owners of the Ford Explorer, Edge, Focus and Lincoln MKX a USB flash drive loaded with new software to fix problems with MyFord Touch and MyLincoln Touch systems, the company said.
That better be a Trusted Drive or the owners won't be able to trust their drive!
Mig, it
is a little somber around here, you're right. Hopefully things brighten up next week.
I do like Hamsters idea about the benefit that some share purchases by the C offices and BoD would have in communicating confidence and bolstering the share price. It's definitely too close to the Q4 announcements to risk doing that now, but they could put out an announcement that they intend to purchase shares a few days following the Q4 conference call. That would be an interesting signal to shareolders.
Mig, have the
NSA
DOD
GM
DELL
BP
BASF
PWC
STX
SMSN
etc
also all been fooled or is there substance behind this company?
You can decide for yourself.
player1234, that is
a very interesting set of observations by acctav. Is should be highlighted for all to focus on.
an abridged RSA report
abridged from acctav
I attended RSA today- just the expo- to randomly walk around and soak. Here's some rather unenlightening stuff I learned, most of it a bit touchy feely. I spent some time with a few Wave guys and I am only going to comment on general information they gave me and my impressions of it.
* The Wave booths were staffed with energetic, knowledgeable real employees. Not just eye candy contractors that you often find at many shows. Through the day I spoke with three Wave employees who seemed equally enthusiastic about Wave's future. The first guy I talked to referred me to me a demo of a virtualized sim card using a TPM. The interesting thing about this was that it ran on Win7. He noted that this was a capability that would be in Win8 but I think the value was that they had it running on legacy systems (Win7). A general theme that seemed to come across was interoperability across platforms and the need for security across even non-compute platforms.
* There was a lot of enthusiasm about Win8. I got the impression that security has a big focus and this is the inflection point that will cause all those TPMs will get turned on. But going back to my previous point, not everyone will convert all at once nor will everyone convert all their systems. So a management solution will be required that can work across platform/OS etc. I didn't directly inquire about the relationship that Wave may or may not have with Microsoft but I'm quite confident they have been working close. Whether there will be a shout out to Wave in a forthcoming MSFT release remains to be seen. My personal feel is that this will not happen or if it does it will be one of acknowledgement of Wave's support and offerings. I didn't get the impression that it would be anything like "Wave's IP is incorporated into Win8 and will get a royalty blah blah". Regardless, what was abundantly clear was that Wave views Microsoft and Win8 as an enabler, not as an adversary. Similarly, my impression was that MSFT likely values what Wave does because it supports their initiative for greater security with Win8 and older platforms.
* The general feeling I got was that things were looking up in terms of the business. Gone were the days of selling stock to make payroll (despite what is spouted here daily). I was told that they were cash flow positive but I can't say if this was just a passing comment or one with any substance behind it. My impression, however, was that sufficient cash was coming in to make prudent and strategic spending decisions as opportunities arose. I didn't pry at all on business specifics or whether they had landed any big contracts because I wouldn't think that they would be a liberty to divulge that information. But it was volunteered that they had been having a lot of success in the medical sector but not so much in the financial sector. The reason for the latter was less about competition and more about tight purses. A view of competition was given to me as follows: they really don't have much competition in what they do- rather it's just getting customers to (a) have awareness about hardware security (TPMs, SEDs) and (b) to allocate their limited IT funds on Wave's management software vs. other opportunities. I was also told that much of corporate IT still doesn't understand the power and value of TPMs and SEDs.
* I spoke to a person at Dell who had worked with Wave in the past. She commented that while Dell has their own software for many things, the obvious choice for SED management was Wave. I'm paraphrasing a bit but I was somewhat impressed that she acknowledged their SED management tools.
* I saw the Samsung proximity demo. It's still just a demo but it was being "co-hosted" by a trusted logic guy. The Wave play here is the centralized management of PC/SED/tablet credentials. I believe what they were showing is that the wave cloud service was attesting to the credentials of all devices to enable interoperability. In other words, when the tablet is brought in close proximity (bluetooth in the demo) the Wave service would attest that the tablet was valid/trusted and then provide access to the drive connected to the laptop. Basically like a wireless token. Another tidbit about this was that Samsung seems to be leading the way with tablet security via the mobile trusted module. I believe this is essentially a firmware+trustzone implementation that mimics what exists in a TPM.
* In a rather unrelated discussion, I talked to some random NSA guy. Most of what he said went over my head unfortunately. My main question was about government adoption of trusted computing. The guy didn't have a good answer but he did seem to be in the "initiative" business so to speak. He kept talking about IA adoption across government as a best known method. I was a bit surprised that the government was pushing the Intel Architecture so hard and I finally got him to explain that IA was identity assurance or something like that (I may even have that wrong). But what was interesting about his rant was that it ooozed centralized management. It was all about knowing who and what was out connected and having control over it (ie centralized management).
Bottom line, while continue to be deeply disappointed in Wave's stock performance, I can in fact separate that from the underlying company. It makes it easier knowing that revenues continue to grow and that the company seems to have the option to informed decisions about how to spend their money based on incoming revenue. While I have no inside insight into this, the general tone of the discussion I had made me confident that this quarter will be another of increasing revenue. Despite ...{edit} . .. the company seems to be very well positioned in the right place at the right time. Their revenue is growing and they are compounding this with investments in the future. I can wait for the market to take notice.
alritethen, nicely said and thanks to attcav for your timely report from RSA.
wavedreamer, awk, nice to see
mention of the WEM expansion into the mobile space.
It's also remarkable to see how many different firms Wave has allied within the past and how those past relationships are now taking on expanded signifigance. Wave appears to be a significant cog in the wheel of many firms!
dig, thank you
for that clarification.
To take your log analogy further, I think some way view the log as too small and spinning much too quickly already to jump on given Wave and Infineon (?) are already aboard.
dig space, an interesting contrast of perspectives
to consider. Your wrote
Wave is now log-rolling and trying to stay dry.
meanwhile, SKS writes
“The best way to predict the future is to invent it.” .. .. Wave is taking Kay’s maxim one step further...
That's a very bullish statement that SKS made. Given the high quality of the news releases eminating from Wave, and SKS's information advantage over the rest of us, I tend to go with what SKS said.
jermart, I think this is only your
opinion and the result of idle speculation on your part.
If you have a learned statistical study that proves your thesis valid, please point it out to us.
All hard and fast rules about predicting the future path of stock prices eventually fail and that's why a lot of hedge funds and day traders get into trouble when they follow hard coded algorithms. Wave's stock price is no different in this regard.
wavedreamer, that is highly probable and
it would be nice to see further adoption on the road to ubiquity.
See http://www.phoenix.com/pages/efiuefi-migration-solution
Dabears, a very good question!
It could be that with the release of WEM, wavoids all thought that preboot measurement was all done.
But WEM is Beta, and it sounds like while it was maybe complete for BIOS, it may not have been for UEFI. Now UEFI is very much more flexible and complex than BIOS, being easily programmable, meaning the opportunities for preboot malware skyrockets. So the introduction of UEFI will not only increase utility for enterprises but will also cause degrees of magnitude increases in malware risk. And with the increased risk the value proposition for deploying WEM, TPMs et al will increase dramatically as well.
jermart, how do you know
that something "and wont ever happen"? Are you clairvoyant or just speculating? Or maybe you have something to back that up with?
jermart, its hard to tell what is a waste of your
time versus the typical Wavoid. I suggest you ignore all posts about Win8 going forward to conserve time.
Nobody ever said MSFT did.
jermart,
the ATM, if it is being used, is likely only for about 20,000 shares a day. A very small portion of the total volume. Or did you think Wave was trying to sell 14,000,000 shares a day? That would be silly!
No, I think the selling is coming from the short players who use the low volumes to their perceived benefit to try to drive the price down. But, like trying to hold a balloon underwater, it won't work. It's a fools game to try to make money by selling shares short too cheaply.
Interesting to see the Wavoids
stepping up to buy. This contradicts the accepted wisdom of the group being tapped out.
Also interesting to see the share price rebounding from it's low today.
It's clear that the efforts of the shorts to drive the price down by aggressive selling is only allowing willing and wily longs to buy shares at good levels. Unfortunately, the shorts get shorter at lower prices and don't benefit by buying there. It will all end in tears for the shorts when they have to cover at much higher prices later this year and next.
kind words, thanks Weby and Summerblaze. eom.
alea, the option based
compensation performed as expected. The "old options", the particulars of which we haven't mentioned, ended up being worthless. So SKS did not recieve any option related income for the years these options were in existence. That's the way they are supposed to work. The Board said we are going to make some of your pay dependent upon the performance of the shares. The shares didn't perform so SKS doesn't get paid.
The freshly issued options are for stock related performance going forward. While there may be a small advantage to having a lower strike price, it is clear that SKS would have maximised his personal wealth if the price of Wave had gone up rather than down.
The 3 issues people get insist on muddling together are
1. the level of SKS pay
2. the meaning and ramifiactions of option related compensation
3. the performance of Wave shares.
I have no problem with 1., I understand 2. and I am losing patience with 3. But I've been losing patience for dog's years so nothing new there.
Mig,
you have to read between the lines. The sentence I posted earlier refers to the need for engineering services to support the deployment of SED's coming off the line starting in FEB / MAR 2012, ie now. The deployment of SED's and TPM's by the ARMY will perforce lead to the purchase of Wave seats for said SED's and TPM's. So there should be orders for 100,000 plus seats arriving either directly or more likely through SI's in the coming year. Something like $10,000,000 in total or more is possible.
Sentence of Interest:
in Section 5 d. i.
"PM cannot usilize and issue encrypted hard drives to the field in a timely manner if support is not acquired before shipments of encrypted hard drives start coming off the assembly lines in FEB/MAR 2012."
So we can expect some order flow by the end of March. They may be not be announced if the orders are through SI's and not in bulk.
Connected Standby
Bluefin's post about preparing for Win8 mentions that "connected standy" will require TPMs.
http://www.pcmag.com/article2/0,2817,2400059,00.asp
"Connected Standby" mode
What's the advantage of a WOA PC? In the smartphone and tablet world, ARM-powered devices can last days if not weeks on a single charge, and the WOA OS was retooled to take advantage of this, Sinofsky said.
"You don't turn off a WOA PC," Sinofsky wrote.
"WOA PCs will not have the traditional hibernate and sleep options with which we are familiar," he wrote. "Instead, WOA PCs always operate in the newly designed Connected Standby power mode, similar to the way you use a mobile phone today. When the screen is on, you have access to the full power and capabilities of the WOA PC. When the screen goes dark (by pressing the power button or timer), the PC enters a new, very low-power mode that enables the battery to last for weeks."
Microsoft will work to add the Connected Standby technology to traditional X86 devices, Sinofsky wrote.
jermart, it's great news
that Bigstring has identified security of social networking to be a serious market opportunity. It validates the efforts that Wave is putting into Scrambles.
I did a quick internet search on the Bigsting product offering and found it is only in Beta after over two years of development work. Also, the users have some pretty negative things to say about lost emails and the lack of confirmation of email deletions.
For example, see the following site:
http://email.about.com/u/r/od/freeemailreviews/gr/bigstring_com.htm
Wave has clearly discovered not only a latent market need but also that the competitors in the field are fairly inept.
All good news for Wave and Scramles.
unixguy, the inability of to
accept positive information about Wave is an investing liability. The reliance on outdated mainframe technology when trying to understand modern TC methods used by Wave is also an investing liability.
unixguy, 1260 is a respected poster
who's word is above reproach. You are wrong.
jermart, did you ever
consider that people have read your posts about $2.20 and have made up their own mind about the importance of your post?
As far as I know, no one, including you, has yet developed a method to predict furture events with 100% certainty.
jermart, is there any hard evidence
that Wave is "selling at $2.20" that you can link to? All we have is your repeated assertions of this being the case, which is not quite sufficient proof.
dig space, to add to
your post, while the odds of a definitive statement by Monday are not large, the probability nears 1 within about 2 weeks in the absence of an objection to the sole opportunity.
So, if there is no objection and if there is a follow on purchase order, then there will be an 8K. Given the pricing of the BP contract at roughly $100 a seat, and the need for additional engineering work for this implementation, these Army seats could be priced in the range of $150. As the number of seats that could reasonably be expected is 100,000 or more, there is a risk that the 8K could be for $15,000,000 or more.
Not a good time to be short.