"Makes you wonder what's been going on behind the scenes all these years."

Or confirms what one always thought... ;)

If people could deal with a paradigm shift in thinking about ERHC, very little of what has happened would be surprising...except maybe the time frame... :)

All, IMHO...

Ya think? ;)

There are NO coincidences with ERHC.

Well reasoned, Sneak. And very plausible. Those additional shares weren't authorized to paper the walls in the executive suite. ;)

Oh, I'm not questioning the leveraging of the Kenya block. I don't doubt that will occur. I was simply referring to selling of the company as a whole.

As far as the need for the company's operational funds, I also don't doubt that will occur. The fact that we got the block in Kenya with such liberal acquisition terms causes me to speculate that there are some deep pockets behind ERHC...and I'm not referring to Offor's. But frankly, to think that Offor or any other interested party would allow the company to collapse for lack of operating funds when we have such a tremendous potential asset in Kenya alone is hard to believe.

As for dilution, that is always possible. But I don't see ERHC as a company that is simply reacting to their environment without a strategic initiative in place. That's the impression that many seem to have (especially the naysayers) but the long term viability of the company, the deals that have been made with multiple major companies (i.e., Pioneer, Noble, Sinopec, etc.) and the acquisition of acreage that has so much potential tells me that there is a much bigger strategy in play than just "luck". And if there is, they obviously have the patience to play it.

Of course, all of this is IMO.... :)

I do not believe Offor would sell the company for $1 a share. I'm sure many on here would be happy with that, but there's no incentive for him to sell all of the company's potential assets at that price. Much more profitable for him to hold until the value of all potential assets are known.

I believe you may be referring to this...

http://erhc.blogspot.com/2005/10/link-to-exxon-anadarko-seen-in-sao.html

Note: Not pushing Joe's blog, but it had a pretty good summary of the presumed Anadarko connection. A perspective from this is that they were one of the ones that pushed Sao Tome to investigate "corruption" with the awarding of bids.

Yes, sir. As I've said repeatedly, there are no coincidences with ERHC...

"Therefore I believe the training session was "sponsored" by someone who is interested in using the SSR technology in block 1."

I understand your point, but I didn't mean that the session would benefit the JDA as far as them using it. I meant that it could have been used to show the JDA that it would be feasible to develop the block and the JDZ as a whole different than what Total may be proposing.

In other words, if my speculations are correct, Total is telling them "we'll develop all the JDZ, but it will cost xxx. Therefore, we need to have such-n-such conditions to make it profitable." The JDA is trying to figure out if what Total is asking for is the best deal them for area wide development without giving away the store. Then someone comes along and shows the JDA "A company can do this to develop what would normally be considered a non-commercial block for xxx and it would be profitable for them...therefore, any company could develop ALL the JDZ this way and you don't have to give away the store to Total."

That's what I meant when I said the training session could have been a clue that the JDA was pushing back against a Total proposal (hence Total threatening to leave Block 1) and it was done to show the JDA another way development could be done profitably. They then would have something else to consider in evaluating the Total proposal.

All of this, of course, IMO... :)

A "coincidence" Seek? That's always possible. But given what may have happened with Total in Block 1, it could also be a clue as to why it may have happened.

An individual wrote me earlier this week asking my thoughts on the "Total withdrawal from Block 1". I told them that I was surprised to hear it but still wanted to see it confirmed. I believe it was Sneak who questioned its validity with only one group reporting it. And while it could be true, I'd still like to see harder evidence of it than what has been given so far.

I also shared with them that if it is true, I didn't think it meant what the negative nervous nellies thought it meant. My reasons for saying that were (and I'm mostly quoting from my e-mail)...

1) I find it hard to believe that Total went into Block 1 and was not aware of A) the data that Chevron had about their drilling, and B) that Chevron had declared the block as a stand alone as non-commercial.

Since they spent a lot of money buying Chevron's share and spent a tremendous amount of money drilling near the same areas that Chevron did, they obviously were looking for an answer to, or a confirmation of, something. What exactly it is that they were looking for, or needed confirmed, is the million dollar question.

2) Since the PSC's for Blocks 1 through 4 are already in place, any area wide development has to be worked out. (I think that is what was going on since the end of the Total drilling campaign last year.) I also think it a more likely scenario that someone (Sinopec? ERHC? JDA?) was being intransigent and Total decided that they were deadlocked. Could it be that the withdrawal was Total's way of saying "We've made out last offer and you have to decide if you want to be a part of the development of the JDZ or if you want it to sit here."? So, in essence, is this Total's way of putting the hammer down to bring it to some sort of conclusion?

If my speculations are correct, the training session you listed could be a clue as to it being the JDA being the stumbling block.

Then again, I must say that I am skeptical of the JDA being the bogeyman as well. If Offor, Dangote, and any other "minor" players were willing to deal, it is difficult to believe that the JDA couldn't be made to be more "accommodating".

So, once again, time will tell. Is this, as I think OC's and Sneak's comments indicate, a high stakes poker game to force people's hands? I think that is very, very possible. The question is, who's hands, and for what.

Again, sorry for the verbose response. :)

RX

Thanks, OC...like you, I'm not what I consider a religious man...but I do like to play a mean game of dominoes! And 42... :)

Sneak...no, I don't remember that name. I didn't get on here until late in 2010, so he may have stopped posting by then.

AA...you are veryyyyyyyyy perceptive! Let's just say I go back many days on the Callender... ;)

Seek, I believe you, I, and several others on here are on the same page with respect to what is going on with this company.

It seems that very few people on the other board can wrap their hands around a bigger vision for ERHE. They concentrate on each and every little step, without sitting back and dispassionately reviewing the evidence of over 15 years. So much of what has happened doesn't make sense if people think ERHE was ever intended to be anything more than a vehicle to execute a grand strategy.

I won't bore you with my usual lengthy discourse on the criticality of historical perspective with ERHC as it was prior to Offor's purchase, why the JDZ and EEZ were actually created, and the destructive zeal of some majors to steal the area. But suffice it to say that if one understands that, and believes it was part of a long term strategic vision, so much of what has happened and what I believe is going to happen, makes sense. There are no coincidences with ERHE! Whether people choose to believe that or not is their privilege.

What I will find interesting over the next weeks and months is the sequence of falling dominoes. That is...if people accept the idea that they are strategically placed dominoes (Matthew 13:16) and not a bunch of pick-up sticks tossed on a table. :)

Sorry for for the late reply, OC. Been swamped the last week.

Yes, I was surprised to see the article's authors indicate a large play for STP. But it is probable they are making a generalization from information from multiple sources. Given all the areas they were including, it may be that they just synthesized data from what "could, should", etc. and used it.

My, my...people looking at major areas of the African continent instead of just this part here and this part there?

Trillions of dollars in possible revenues for those countries?

Wonder what would be the take for the oil companies that have access to find it? Hundreds of billions? Could that make it worth an expensive, long term, strategic continental development in one of the last pristine, non-developed parts of the planet?

Imagine that...lol

Say it over and over...there are no coincidences with ERHE... ;)

Seek, OC...let me just quickly toss a couple of things out...

The Upstream article? Not surprising to me. IMO, it is "coloring in", so to speak, more of the background to the whole, long ERHE saga. Essentially, it is saying that things are progressing as they should be.

I had to smile, OC, when you said that the JDZ was a possibility again. I never thought it wasn't, even after the 2009 drilling news. The problem for many people with that news is that it wasn't the news that people thought it would be and people interpreted that as failure. Add to that, that the company wasn't forthcoming with any information and when the information finally did come, it was straight forward and to the point. Hydrocarbons...biogenic gas...and that's it. I'm afraid people's expectations pre-drilling were what led to their interpretation that that information meant failure, since they expected flags to be raised and whistles to be heard.

But suppose they found what was expected? (Remember that phrase?!!) What if the drilling showed the probability that the mother lode was probably there, but drilling for it would be quite different than what they had experienced before? What if another company that had the technology AND experience to drill it could be enticed to do it, by sharing results of the drilling with them and easing their way into the zone in Block 1 (which had already announced oil play, but not not commerciality)?

Forgive my boring monologue, but I only pose that so people could understand why the long delay, why the silence, why the non-exiting of companies in the JDZ. I've said silence speaks volumes in 2 ways...failure or success. But not one...NOT ONE OF THE MAJOR JDZ PARTNERS ever trumpeted FAILURE by withdrawing! The answer is inescapable...for those with eyes to see.

Chad, Kenya are great assets! And show you what money, influence, and reputable partners can get you. ;) But I've always, always thought the JDZ was the treasure. And frankly, I think the EEZ could turn out to be another one. I know TOB wasn't impressed with the JDZ, but again, even he said it was because of what had been announced (or not announced) and the massive investment required for it. We're talking billions of dollars of investment here. But the return....the return...just makes me smile. :)

Again, sorry for the blah, blah, blah...I don't like to comment much, but appreciate the ability of those investors who can see and not just those who can "see".

RX

Sneak, OC, Seek...

IMO, your thoughts and perspectives are "spot on". :)

I told you...there are no coincidences with ERHE...

Take care...

RX

"But how can ERHE just walk into a country and pick up acreage without the technical or financial backing?"

OC...do you really think ERHC got this acreage and advantageous terms without already having a partner? And without showing convincing proof to the Chadian and Kenyan authorities that they have a partner?

Forgive my twang, but y'all are thinking too much inside the box! There are NO coincidences where ERHE is concerned. In other words, you asked "How can ERHE just walk into a country and pick up acreage without the technical or financial backing?"

The answer is simple...they didn't. The question marks are really about who is providing it...not if.

Enough from me. Enjoy your week!

Well said, OC.

I don't think Kenya & Chad were just to add acerage to sweeten the pot. I think they were examples of how SEO could grease the skids for other companies to get into prospective areas with deals that could be structured especially for them. I think that's why the extensions in the JDZ occurred, why we got the beneficial terms in Chad and especially Kenya, and why Peter has been "visiting" other countries. He's showing them what a "relationship" with him can do going forward. Having a friend who can open doors and help negotiate entry is a powerful aphrodisiac for those looking at a poor, but resource rich continent.

Of course, that's always possible, Opux. A longer time frame, that is. But, again in my opinion, I think that it will be sooner than later.

I tend to look a little more strategically at what has happened and how that plays out. I think it is important that one consider what is going on with that region of the world and not just one or two countries.

While Kenya is receiving a great deal of attention right now, one should be looking at what is happening in the entire east African region, both on and offshore. There is a lot of activity going on. In addition, new prospects in west African countries are being targeted. And, unlike in the past, it isn't all just the majors. You're seeing more solid, mid-size companies taking greater risks and partnering where necessary. I believe the reality that is setting in in the industry is that the resources are there. The question is how to be able to both get in and stay in, especially in an area that has long been ignored. Relationships are the key...and that is where ERHC comes into play.

As I've said before, I have always believed in the company's assets, even before Chad and Kenya. But what I think is an even bigger asset is the company's ability to move freely around the continent. People on this board have commented frequently about their amazement of how ERHC has the ability to have contacts and to "get in" to places that others haven't. And that, IMO, is what gives the asset basket an even greater value. People seem to be concentrating on the JDZ, EEZ, Kenya, etc., and ignoring the value any competitive industry player places on longer term strategic alliances. ERHC, and it's biggest shareholder, provide a golden opportunity to cement and expand those...and gain valuable acreage at the same time.

The stock options set and timed - a coincidence? Increasing the authorized shares such that the new amount would give control to someone buying in - a coincidence? Preferred shares, with terms to be set by the board, authorized at the same time - a coincidence? Sinopec continuing to stay in the JDZ with a "disappointing" drilling campaign - a coincidence? Total drilling multiple wells in Block 1 and "analyzing" the results for a year - a coincidence? Sir Emeka having control and allowing the board to propose a plan that could eliminate his control - a coincidence? Or, as the naysayers love to say, is it just a continual series of missteps, random acts, and piss poor management so bad that the company still survives?

I say again, I'm no expert. Based on history and actions, I just tend to think differently than a typical investor. Hence, why my postings are few...

All of this, of course, is IMO... :)

Note - IB, I can't do PM's. You're right on track though, IMO...RX :)

I Total-ly agree.

I also believe that the Kenyan assets are just one part of the puzzle in the final disposition of ERHC. Which, IMO, is coming soon.

The silence is deafening...for those who can hear.

To Tryoty...

I'm impressed that someone knew the details! And you are absolutely correct on who said what and who was being quoted. As always, the devil is in the details...and geeks truly do rule the world... ;)

OC...

As Mr. Spock once said..."there are always...possibilities"...

Given the perspectives that have been shared with me over the years by others who have been intimately connected with ERHC, the idea that all the actions that have been taken were knee-jerk reactions or ignorance of the industry is laughable. But, of course, there will always be those who think they are entitled to day-to-day updates on minute details and refuse to admit that strategic actions take time and rarely take place in the public eye. Whining about share price and making assumptions on causal relationships of that price to actions is the mark of one who is truly uninformed.

But the strength of this company has always been it's strategic alliances. It was like that when SEO bought it and it has continued to this day. Anyone who has been at the highest levels of any business know that you cannot put a price on mutually beneficial relationships between individuals and companies. And the privacy of the dynamics of those relationships are what the naysayers conveniently ignore. But let them nay say on...it matters to me not one bit. Of course, the ignore function helps in that regard as well. ;)

All of the above, of course, is IMHO... :)

Given ERHC's other acreage, Total would make sense as their farm-in partner. Especially if there truly are behind-the-scene plans to develop the JDZ with Total expertise and Chinese cash (either Sinopec or CNOOC).

The Chinese negotiation with STP on EEZ acreage could be part of a much bigger area wide exploration than anyone has thought about, IMO.

SEO is a very good poker player, lovemelongtime. My relative that I mentioned previously has worked with him and knew his capabilities.

He not only knows how to play poker, he has a hellacious deck of cards (i.e., friends in multiple African countries). :)

I agree, Just.

I always keep in mind that the players in the energy industry are a very close family. Many have worked with each other for years and years and have cooperated on, and competed for, prospects. So more know what's going on out there with ERHC's assets than we think. Silence is golden in the industry...and the longer the silence, the stakes go up dramatically.

Thanks, OC. And yes, it's a sir. :)

I've watched this board for almost 3 years and never commented. I'm familiar with most of the usual posters, so know the mindset of many.

So I won't be a stranger, but don't usually comment unless I have something to add. Or in response to someone's question or comment...although...that means someone I don't have on ignore...lol.


RX

Absolutely, OC. I agree with LT and AA that these negotiations have been ongoing. I also believe that negotiations about the future of the JDZ, and most likely the EEZ, have been ongoing as well.

The one thing many don't seem to understand is that this company's history has been all about making the complex connections between assets of great, but high risk, potential and potential players willing to take those risks. So many interpreted the results of the initial wells in the JDZ as poor, but never seem to question why the partners that drilled those wells didn't react as they would with a similar poor result. Of course, the musical chairs with CEO's and other management didn't help things and played into the "inept management" scenario. We'll never know exactly why that occurred and frankly, at this point, it doesn't matter. What DOES matter is that the company hasn't quit. When problems occur, it continues to move forward with finding a scenario that WILL work. Unfortunately, that may mean having to start a new process...and time is always a pisser with that. :)

So, as I said before, I'm bullish on the assets, but recognize the fact that this is, and continues to be, an extremely complex process. It's for the investor who is willing to go through the sweat and heartache of labor as the beautiful baby is born.

Absolutely, LT! Given your comments, you definitely know what I'm talking about and, most likely, who. I salute both you & AA for your acumen and understanding. :)

As for a phoenix, you've got that right. It's been hard, but I never count this fiery bird out, no matter what the doomsayers drone. I've read all your posts and send my respects.

RX

AA...I'm not from LA...but let's just say I know my way around there... ;)

I think most of what you post is a pretty good analysis of what I think, Brez.

I think there are other clues to the puzzle. All the silence over the last several years until now. Silence from Sinopec, Total, JDA, STP. Silence from SEO by not participating in the RO. Groups and individuals are silent for only 2 reasons...failure or to protect for oneself the rewards of great success. Failure in the JDZ would make sense of the silence. But if all these assets are failures, why the continuation of holding them? I cold say more about this, but the constant question many have asked ("if everything we have an interest in is so bad, why do the players remain?") should cause people to move to an inescapable conclusion.

A farm-in scenario but with skin in the game through a buy-in brings many players to the table who now have it in THEIR interest for ERHC to succeed. SEO not participating in the RO? Could it be that he doesn't need control if he has preferred stock that is structured to guarantee him profit from ERHC's eventual success? Giving up control for the risk of great profits puts his skin in the game. And he, more than anyone else, knows what the plan is going forward.

I'm no genius. Just trying to figure out things like everyone else. But people who were there from the beginning know the incredibly complex process that created ERHC (moving from an environmental company to an energy asset holding company) and created the JDZ and the EEZ. All of these things didn't occur in a vacuum and weren't isolated instances that occurred over a decade ago. So yes, I'm bullish about scenarios that will allow ERHC to be what it was created to be.

Redwing, I don't want to get into which former CEO I'm related to. But suffice it to say that I'm very confident in my investment in ERHC.

I've known about this company and it's history for over a decade and it has ALWAYS been about the assets. It has gone in directions that often amused me and often made me shake my head and frown. But I've never wavered from what I thought was the ultimate pay off...it's assets.

Whether my faith is rewarded or not, I'll be right there to the end.

GLTA

Thanks, Dig. No, I have only posted once before today (to the incessant doom & gloom crowd). However, I am related to to an individual who was a former CEO of ERHC and am intimately aware of the company's entire history. So, my perspectives tend to be somewhat different than most folks.

My best to all the longs!

"Could it be possible that this multinational company insisted that Offer was not to participate in the rights offering?"
----------------
Could it also be that part of the "to be negotiated" agreement with this multinational company will be a buy-in? Is that the reason so many new shares were authorized?

And what about the preferred shares that were approved when the new common shares were approved? What rights could be attached to them and for whom?

SEO's non-participation in the rights offering may be sending a bigger signal than what was originally thought.

Interesting...results of offering and days later, announcement of a LOI for our potentially hottest asset.

Plus movements and rumblings on activities vis-a-vis the JDZ and EEZ. Could it be that our "inept" management isn't as "inept" as we thought?

I'll second, third, and fourth that...