is...a Libertarian
Register for free to join our community of investors and share your ideas. You will also get access to streaming quotes, interactive charts, trades, portfolio, live options flow and more tools.
Register for free to join our community of investors and share your ideas. You will also get access to streaming quotes, interactive charts, trades, portfolio, live options flow and more tools.
I see that your easily excited. However, I would caution you on investing the retirement money as this stock is headed lower.
wbmw, I think you are mixing unit share and revenue share. While AMD's revenue share has been improving over the last two years, it has always trailed AMD's unit share. Second, Gartner and IDC are talking system revenues, which suggests that Intel based systems are more expensive.
First quarter server statistics out by IDC
"Although x86 server market growth slowed in the quarter, specific segments of the market actually accelerated. Revenue from four socket x86 servers grew more than 20% year over year as companies leveraged the performance of 4-way systems in consolidation initiatives," said Jed Scaramella, research analyst, Enterprise Server research at IDC. "AMD-based systems, which have a high attach rate in the 4-way segment, accounted for over $1 billion of server revenue in 1Q06. This is the first time AMD-based systems topped the $1 billion mark on a quarterly basis. HP stands out among the tier 1 vendors with nearly 20% of revenue associated with AMD-based systems. IDC believes the perceived thermal benefits of AMD systems resonate with IT managers in their initiatives to control the increasing power and cooling costs in the data center."
http://www.idc.com/getdoc.jsp?containerId=prUS20180706
Definitely blood in the streets. Commodities are falling out of bed, big oil is getting hammered and tech is taking in the shorts. My guess is it is a reaction to the early May rally that suckered in the dumb money and now is making them pay. Hopefully the volatility will die down in the next couple of days and we will just drift lower.
Interesting times.
Investing is about making money not about ideology. It is always prudent to evaluate new information. Most people who don't end up losing lots of money.
Works for me. I even promise to bring it up on occasion between now and then as my views are influenced by more current information. Remember the old Wall Street saying:
"Sell in May and go away."
Yes, the chips are mighty cheap. The truth about how well cheap chips sell will be in the numbers. I expect AMD will gain market share again, so the effect of the deep discounting will be to perhaps slow the loss in market share. ASPs are certainly being hurt, which is good for us shorts.
As you know I have put money on my convictions. My Intel short is performing nicely and I expect it will preform even better through the end of August (when I will reevaluate my position).
I will bookmark this prediction and we can revisit it in a year.
I'll take a swag at it. I will predict that AMD's revenues share and unit share will increase on a year over year basis for the four quarters ended June 2007 as compared to the four quarters ended June 2006.
I think you over estimate the reality of Intel's promises.
Dell came to AMD, because they no longer had an realistic alternative. AMD holds the cards -- Dell does not get special treatment. If Dell were to more broadly adopt AMD, so that they became a volume buyer then maybe they would get improved pricing, though I doubt it would be any better than Sun or HP.
First Alienware, now Opteron MP, what do you think is going to happen next? Looking at the clues and being able to make an intelligent investment decision is how money is made. I would close out your AMD short.
I doubt very much that AMD will give Dell any special treatment when it was Sun and HP that helped them achieve the success they have had in the enterprise space. Dell will get a good deal, but no better than Sun or HP.
Obviously Dell, having seen what's coming from Intel, decided that they would like to offer an AMD solution. I think this says a lot about what Dell thinks of the future roadmaps of both companies.
No doubt.
1. Your quote form a year ago has been noted
2. Your quote from 3 months ago has been noted
3. Neither agree with your statement yesterday.
Incidentally here is my take from Feb 1: http://investorshub.com/boards/read_msg.asp?message_id=9515510
Yet you hope that spewing the garbage you do will get people distracted enough to allow you to rewrite history.
What about the forward looking statements (you know the ones that are used to make investment decisions) are you too chicken to own up to. Typical chipguy bs -- have to figure out how to deny previous statements. This isn't the first time, nor will it be the last -- unfortunately for us all.
Yes, you buy all your stocks and hold them for two weeks. You haven't been hyping SGI for the last year. Of course you sold SGI at the stock's high water mark when you realized it was a risky investment. Nevertheless, you bought back in as a "calculated risk". You think anyone criticizing your rebuy should engage in unnatural sex acts.
Yeah that's the ticket. Nothing dishonest here, please move along.
Uh no, people who invested in SGI took a calculated risk
with a turn around play with a large potential payoff. Only
a worthless loser troll with the benefit of 20/20 hindsight
would claim otherwise on an investment forum like ihub.
A nice case of revisionist history. "Calculated risk" is a bit different than the characterization here:
http://investorshub.com/boards/read_msg.asp?message_id=6143898
I don't generally have a problem with someone changing their position on a stock, but when they attempt to claim they "knew it" all along it gets to be a bit much.
Your arguments are either ignorant of recent events, or strongly biased towards AMD's solutions. Otherwise, you'd agree that a lower performing part at a lower price has just as much appeal, if not more so.
If we were talking oil or other commodities your assertion might be true. However, in the PC space, with informed buyers, reputation counts for a lot. Intel lived off of their reputation for some time despite having an inferior performance and price/performance solution. The fact that they somewhat fixed P-D does not get your typical enthusiast to say for a few bucks I'll buy the Intel part. These guys are like motorheads that talk about how awesome their system is or how they got the latest and greatest video card, etc. Intel is not the cool solution. Just like buying a Toyota in the 80s wasn't cool(Toyota is the best selling car in America today). This may change over time if Intel's promise lives up to reality.
For the uninformed crowd I agree with your conclusion, but I would point out that system prices don't move that much (components may get rearranged), so there is not likely to be a meaningful move to P-D from A64.
I know you don't plan of changing your view, but I recall a similar discussion about Intel and Viiv several months ago.
Your hypothesis is just plain wrong. If you are talking about the universe of buyers who know and care about dual core and 64-bit, then you also know that they are not going to buy EOL products and space heaters (its hard to alter your reputation overnight). That buyer will not buy Pentium D in any significantly greater volume based on saving a couple of bucks.
You could have just looked at the cash flow statement.
This guy is smoking something and using the message boards to express his fantasies. Intel is in absolutely no danger of bankruptcy.
However, I do believe Intel's stock continues to be at risk and I expect it will fall through August. We'll see -- I still have my short.
Without bothering to look it up, I would ask what does the short term investments line read?
He held a seance and had the spirits tell him? What we have is a new Elmer "Intel never said they were losing money in flash" Phud. Best to just ignore him.
It will clearly be Power.
Talk about tinfoil. You need to get a grip on reality. HP has replaced or will replace all their proprietary chip lines with IPF, so IPF sales appear to be growing. Once HP has completed its replacement cycle IPF growth will cease.
IBM has abandoned ship, SGI is climbing over the railing. Things are not good in the world of IPF.
PC shipments up, but Dell loses ground
PC shipments increased by 13.1 percent in the first quarter, according to research firm Gartner, thanks in part to sales in emerging markets and to consumers. Overall, 57 million PCs, notebooks and servers based on so-called x86 chips were sent to customers. Rival IDC came up with similar results and rankings although the exact numbers are slightly different.
But Dell, the No. 1 PC maker in the world and in the U.S., did not grow that fast. The Round Rock, Texas-based PC maker saw shipments rise worldwide by 10.2 percent from the first quarter of 2005, resulting in a decline in market share from 16.9 percent to 16.5 percent.
In the U.S., Dell saw shipments rise by only 0.2 percent when the overall market grew by 7.4 percent, dropping its market share from 32 percent to 29.8 percent.
It's a significant change because Dell has grown faster--and generally by a substantial margin--than the PC market as a whole for several years. The company hasn't seen shipments grow this slowly since the third quarter of 2001, when the rest of the industry was contracting.
Gartner's Charles Smulders combed through the data and found that Dell has grown faster than the market on an annual basis since 1989. Dell might have grown faster than the market before that, but Gartner doesn't have the numbers.
"It is a pretty interesting point that they have reached," Smulders said. "They are challenged in delivering to their profitability expectations and with the current consumer pricing environment. It is because they are focused on Intel while other competitors have adopted AMD and been able to hit lower price points."
Dell also has tried to stay out of the low end of the PC market, which helps explain why the average selling price for Dell consumer PCs in the U.S. is far higher than the average price of PCs from competitors. The company also has suffered from an increase in customer complaints.
Rival Hewlett-Packard, meanwhile, is staging a comeback. HP grew shipments by 22.3 percent compared with the same period the year before. As a result, its worldwide market share grew from 13.8 percent in the first quarter of 2005 to 14.9 percent in the first quarter of 2006. In the U.S., HP grew shipments by 15.3 percent and saw its market share rise to 18.5 percent.
Dell has also tried to stay out of the low-end of the PC market, which helps explain why the average selling price for Dell consumer PCs in the U.S. is far higher than the average price of PCs from competitors. Dell has also suffered from an increase in customer complaints.
No. 4 Acer continued to wield the crown for the fastest-growing PC maker. The Taiwanese manufacturer grew PC shipments 45 percent in the first quarter and now has 5 percent of the world market. Lenovo is ranked third, with 6 percent of the market. Lenovo grew shipments by 10 percent.
Gartner further added that, in processors, Advanced Micro Devices gained market share over Intel in the last seven quarters.
Apple Computer so far hasn't been a boon to Intel. Apple, ranked fifth in the U.S. but not in the top five worldwide, saw its U.S. market share decline from 3.6 percent to 3.5 percent. Apple's worldwide share is around 2.3 percent.
http://news.com.com/PC+shipments+up,+but+Dell+loses+ground/2100-1003_3-6062973.html
SGI is running out of money and has been excluded from the biggest DARPA super computing contract to have come out in a generation. This despite the fact that the government usually throws development money to the struggling super computer guys to keep them afloat, because they are viewed as strategic national assets. Lots of hallelujahs heard at Cray over the years as government officials showed up with development money at critical times.
Interestingly all three companies invited to the bakeoff for the $1 billion Petaflop development funds offer Opteron based solutions. Maybe SGI got a clue.
How many buyers will have qualified the systems for deployment?
What is your purchase price?
First, yes, I do take sizable positions in stocks. Second, I said I expect to make a lot more money on my short.
Finally, the $.50 move you claim, is actually an $.88 (4.4%) move based on yesterday's closing price. Not bad for a couple of weeks.
I expect Intel to fall nicely after they report.
When did you start your short?
End of March. Here:
http://investorshub.com/boards/read_msg.asp?message_id=10358519
Intel has more to go on the downside. Still riding my short and expect to make a lot more money.
Retail PC sales grow briskly in Q1, new data show
Computer makers enjoyed strong year-over-year growth during the first calendar quarter this year, according to new U.S. retail sales data.
But while that strong growth may imply that computer manufacturers are on track to continue that growth the rest of the year, it remains to be seen whether Microsoft's delay of the consumer version of its highly anticipated Windows Vista operating system will derail that growth, analysts say.
Number two PC maker Hewlett Packard sold about 605,000 PCs at U.S. retail outlets in the first quarter, according to industry researcher Current Analysis. That's a 28.5 percent increase from the previous year's calendar quarter.
The Current Analysis figures apply to U.S. retail sales only and do not include international sales or sales from the Internet or other non-resale stores. Because of those constraints, the data do not include sales from Dell, the number one computer maker, because of its direct sales model.
"There is a lot of positive growth in the first quarter, but since the marketing plans of all these manufacturers were tied into Vista, they need to revisit these plans," said Samir Bhavnani, principal analyst in the mobile computing and electronics group at Current Analysis.
PC makers such as Compaq are billing their current products as "Vista capable," meaning that they will have enough memory to run the new operating system, in hopes that customers will buy now and upgrade their operating system rather than wait until Vista debuts to buy.
The data arrived ahead of next week's tech earnings blitz. Apple, IBM, Intel and eBay all report quarterly earnings next week. (HP, like Dell, does not report on calendar quarters; January sales were included in the company's earnings when it reported its most recent quarterly results in February.)
The trend of laptops out-growing desktops continued. Of the companies and retail stores that Current Analysis tracks, first quarter laptop sales grew 43.6 percent over the previous year, while first quarter desktop sales grew 16.3.
"Price point has a lot to do with it," said Bhavnani. "The average selling price of notebooks has fallen at a quicker rate" than that of desktops, he added, noting that from last year's first quarter to this year's first quarter, the average selling price of notebooks fell 20 percent, down to $984.
"The average notebook has fallen below the $1,000 barrier," which is a psychological block to consumers, Bhavnani said. That means buyers may be more willing to shell out for a lap top.
HP's Compaq line sold 354,000 computers, a 69 percent increase from the previous year. Compaq experienced a 79 percent growth in desktop PCs and a 55.3 percent growth in laptops. Competitor Gateway recorded explosive growth in its laptop PCs. Sales of Gateway laptops grew 166.3 percent from the first quarter last year to the first quarter this year, while desktop sales grew 36.8 percent.
Unlike PC makers, Apple is immune to any negative effects of the Vista delay. But it faces a problem its PC competitors do not: It's currently transitioning its entire line to Intel processors, which means it has to get rid of its non-Intel-based inventory.
Goldman Sachs analysts estimate that Apple shipped about a million Macs in the quarter, making for roughly flat year over year growth. That's in part because of the company's slow ramp of its MacBook Pro Intel-based laptop as well as some stalling in iBook sales in anticipation of the Intel-based line, which is expected as early as this month, the analysts wrote.
The Goldman Sachs analysts also think iPod sales will drop off sharply from last quarter's record 14 million units sold. The analysts estimate that apple shipped 9.25 million iPods this quarter and suffered from greater "seasonality," analyst-speak for the slowdown that takes place in sales following the quarter that includes the holidays.
Bhavnani of Current Analysis does not own shares of the companies mentioned. The Goldman Sachs analysts who cover Apple do not own shares of the company, but Goldman Sachs does banking business with the company.
Well, I thought that commenting on your original supposition was a waste of time, being as obviously flawed as it was, but upon further reflection I can see how it may be opaque to an IPF apologist.
Long live Intel, they will no doubt dominate the high end of the market again -- just give them some time and a lot of toilet paper.
By the way my Intel short is working out nicely.
http://investorshub.com/boards/read_msg.asp?message_id=10358519
You think Hector is Jerry? If you have invested on that basis you have lost an awful lot of money.
We will know in a day or two.
Well the fed has it's priorities.
http://go.reuters.com/newsArticle.jhtml?type=businessNews&storyID=11790542
Fed is going to bump rates again.
I'd say that you are quite a bit more optimistic than me, as I shorted Intel at $20. I expect that it will continue to fall until they start shipping a competitive part for revenue at which point I will look to cover.
Most 32-bit apps work just fine on 64-bit windows. Only difficulty is with drivers, but many OEMs have released 64 bit versions.