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Struggler ... good post ... Smugs is on record attacking anyone with any form of constructive criticism of LOOK, any form of questioning of their analyst rating, their earnings capacity, even challenging alternate investment strategies based on his own biased blind bullish attitudes that had over time, it seemed, brainwashed many to believe he actually knew what he was talking about ... yet it was perfectly clear to anyone with a bit of market knowledge that Smugs was a market novice and obviously still is. The fact that he "saw the light" and sold prior to SP collapse is a credit to his company knowledge of LOOK, that's all. He is still as naive about the wider market as was the case prior ... so anyone reading any of his future investment opinions would be wise to remember the proven stupidity, naivety and blind arrogance of his simplistic investment strategies of the past and give him the respect he is due. None.
Regards
OT Fed Reserves/Joe S ... many thanks ... apologies I took so long responding ... live in a different time zone (NZ) Regards
fed reserves / anyone ... can you assist me please ... do you have a reference site to the daily Fed repo activity?
Many regards ... a lurker.
Smugs ... tone and manner ... your tone and manner was NEVER cautious with LOK ... YOU WERE WRONG ... people who believed you have lost money ... IMO, bugger off!
TG .........................................................
Good site and great concept company. I just love the idea of getting energy from the earth.
You know I do a bit of TA ... so I have to politely suggest caution here ... I see the SP has surged well in the last few months ... normally I'd look for another rally about here but the recent chart form looks down ... a break of 98c should be devastating IMHO. I want to trade this one so will pop in from time to time ... you know where to find me.
Regards
You guys want a long term potential spec stock to sink your teeth into? Take a peek at www.ambri.com and do your own DD.
Regards
Hi ......................................................
Take a look into MSC ... development stage still, main sales targets include China.
Regards
aim4S ... take a look at www.ambri.com (ASX:ABI) My absolute favourite long term chart ... give me an opinion if you wish.
Regards
IriskMike ... I feel absolutely gutted for those long LOK/LOOK ... I've been there before an know how devastating such news can be. I was expecting a dip as a normal trading pattern ... but it just kept consolidating on its lows ... never a good sign. Hope you personally aren't too affected ... there should be some sort of a dead cat bounce ... salvage what you can if you need the funds then IMHO.
Regards
MSN news ... bad I'm afraid ... Regards
IMO ... Big night tonight ... should be fun. Regards
Ollie ... that's the point ... it didn't bounce! Now look at a long term chart for the 400SMA !!! (We'll know in 24 hours)
Regards
Ollie ... I watched the close ... she accelerated into $3 with, IMO, no sign of big block buying. Confirms my negative views of the LOK trading yesterday. I believe its just broken down in a final wash out leg towards Oct 14/15. That's the percentage play, IMO, until a reversal confirmed.
Regards
$3.02 printed, new recent low, watching the close, gotta bounce here now!!!
OT LC ... you're IGGY elsewhere to me ...but at least its nice to see YOU READ MY POSTS ... I'm just completing what someone else started and the results speak for themselves ... LOL all the way to the bank! Isn't that why we're here! LOL.
Hmmmm ??? .........................
http://202.92.112.134/MessageView.asp?PostID=278249&Symbol=LOK
Leppard ... Fib levels and LOOK
How did you get to $2.96???
The way I'm trying to use Fib levels is in conjunction with Elliot Wave theory ... so looking at the chart to date I start a new down count from late July.... so we have now had two legs completed and are, IMO, in the third (and final???)leg down. It couldn't hold $3.50 ... so I'm out til it either breaks down or closes over $3.50 odd (MA somewhere round there).
If I had to guess ... I'd say the market rallies (US) after a dip start Monday ... (so we may get your $2.96) ... for two days up ... $3.50 ??? ... then tanks and the SP plunges to complete three down which has to go lower than the 200MA, IMO.
Now if (IF !!!) this is the third leg down it should be a Fib multiple of the second leg ... which at 1.50% the second (up) leg would make the target $2.53.(Note the factor could be 1.236, 1.618 as well ... depends on the environment etc ... but 150% often seems to work)See if you can work this out from the second up leg ... mid Aug to mid Sept.
So if you follow this logic ... NOW ... plot a chart with your 200MA AND .... wait for it!!! 400MA on it.
Allow a little time for the unfolding pattern to emerge.
If I'm right .... Stick your orders in at $2.55 and send me 1/4% of your profits for a Christmas pressie ... Yeehaaaaaaa! LOL.
BTW ... take a look at all the chart moves on the middle of calendar months .... surprising eh!
So I wonder if the $2.55 buys will be hit ... ahhhh ... about the 14th of October!
Let me know how you get on.
Andy
OT Optimist...............................................
Re $5.25 gap ... Hmmmm ... $5.25 has been a significant level of late ... so "maybe", but note only a 4c gap in US at the same time and no real volume spike here so my money is for a continuation march but I will now watch with antisipation to see if the gap fills! Shhhhhhhhhhhhhhhh! LOL
BTW ... I seldom worry about the Oz chart ... it's a wast of effort ... only use it to buy when NRT lags behind NVGN IMHO.
Regards
optimist ..................................................
A broker once said to me "all ships go out with the tide" so no stock is guaranteed as investors (in US particularly) margin accounts say "feed me, feed me" when markets tank ... which is probably about here if it continues downwards and the shorts hop on the bandwagon, so the average margin trader pull out of anything to feed margin ... the good thing with NVGN .. so few people will know about them ... not at all like LOOK ... so probably less affected IMO.
I had a terrible run in the markets two/three years ago so stopped trading and studied all the TA I could get my hands on.
Look at www.stockcharts.com and under Education ... learn everything, examples, theories, trading techniques to start with ... it'll be confusing ... but that's the best way to start IMO. Pay special attention to Fibonacci theory, Elliot Wave theory, and Candlestick charting and then start watching the following site's free Dow analysis daily to begin to understand how the theory becomes practise ... www.signalwatch.com
Remember TA is not about being right all the time, but being right more often than not.
Regards
Market Dead Cat Bounce likely here ... SOX 50% retrace close and INTC doji on volume (depends on close - updated ... closed DOWN - not good) ... LOOK $3 may hold if so ... be careful!
I'm trading LOUD at the mo (discussed this one with smugs when it was 40cents - eh smugs) ... and of course strong long NVGN.... naturally.
Regards
More Fish Tank Swimming ... S&P holding 1000 is all that matters here, now!!! Gawd, nothing ever changes!
Ollie ... I was intimating be carefull as Leppard's doji was a warning signal - that's what doji's are! No reason to believe this turn has stopped here. Broken down and no real sign of support ... chart eyeballing suggests $2.75 as a likely target ... perhaps even $2 now.
Regards
Leppard ... agree .... I need to point out the obvious from time to time to some people as many here seem to simply think that LOOK is the B all and end all. The trading signal you mention was exactly my concern and I note it closed 1c under a rising technical level that I would have liked it to close over. No volume confirmation of the turn however and I suspect another late relief rally tomorrow ... if not $3.23 here we come.
I see oils are on the move ...
http://www.smartmoney.com/sectormaps/index.cfm?sector=Energy&story=maps&subtab=recommends
Watching LKO, MOS and a few others (AYO) in Oz today.
Regards
TG - 51624 on Oze eom
LC ... nope, so far USD and other factors suggest a positive market tomorrow (LOOK ???)... but I don't need to trade LOOK, so unless I see the reason to get long I just wait for one. I look for (what I believe) is the optimum trade ... like CCE (and SIE) in Oz today for example ... and wait for them to come to me. I find I have a far higher potential to loose money when I try to make the trade. Whether LOOK goes up or down doesn't worry me ... IMO it doesn't say BUY here so good for you if you're long ... I'm playing in another sandpit right now and will wait for the invitation to play in yours first! A close over $3.48 would be most inviting and suggest a run to $4 or above, but I still don't like the risk reward much here.
BTW ... I'm watching for golds to retrace, oils to confirm another leg up, small caps to top out next couple of days and have started to accumulate cash again and repatriate AUD/USD to fund "lifestyle enhancement investments".
Regards
Hi Leppard ...................................................
I'm still learning Elliot theory and even the best of them dissagree on what waves are what. I think this is two down of five up ... if so we should get a small washout spike down reversal to that $3.23 but such support levels seem soft so I'm half expecting it to break under there for the bottom BBand. IMO no TA reason to be long yet.
Gold ... NEM is making another high in the US and the volume being modest suggests higher still ... where NEM goes all golds appear to follow. Watch its close as things are getting toppy here IMO and I'm half expecting a small market rally, gold retrace, before a bigger market down move later. But in the mean time I'm being very cautious. The bios are up in the US ... will this flow into Oz today?
Regards
Watching $3.23 as potential support for a bounce entry eom
Market Info from weekly newsletter ... Everybody and their dog knows that the dollar is going lower. The debate is
only about how far. If the Fed were to allow interest rates to rise as
foreign central bank buying slows up, that would trigger higher home
mortgage rates, which would put in jeopardy home values. Deflating home
values, as Weldon points out, is the last thing the world or the Fed wants
to see.
If the world (read China and Asia) pulled the plug on the US dollar, which
they could do in about 15 minutes, the result would be a world wide
depression. Nobody wants that. Everyone's interest is aligned in keeping
the game going. They want the Us to keep buying and they want to keep
selling.
However, it must now becoming apparent even to central bankers that the
current trends cannot continue. You cannot keep racking up $500 billion
trade deficits forever. You cannot keep adding up $500 billion dollar
government deficits. We no longer simply "owe it to ourselves." Since
foreign governments are buying an ever higher percentage of US government
debt (they currently are at an all-time high of 46%), the current trend if
left unchecked means eventually the US government owes trillions to foreign
nations. When you are increasing the foreign debt by $500 billion a year,
it does not take long.
A rise in rates would mean the US would owe hundreds of billions of tax
dollars in annual interest payments to foreign banks, unless the trends are
stopped. Such an event would mean an unraveling of the current world
economic structure.
Thus, the dance truly begins to allow the dollar to drop. Hopefully slowly,
while the Fed keeps rates low, hoping the US economy can begin to produce
jobs.
The Fed issued a statement after its meeting this week. It was word for
word the same as the one in August, with two minor differences. The one to
pay attention to was "a phrase in the next to the last sentence in the
second paragraph. In August they said ...... 'labor market indicators were
mixed'. In September they rephrased that to..... 'labor market has been
weakening.'" (Courtesy of Art Cashin)
LOOK closed near low ... yesterdays close "painted" appears to be confirmed ... in no-mans land but the wrong side of healthy IMO. The chart is waaaay less than convincing and todays selling at close was fairly obvious against YHOO going the other way. Are they selling into a bad MSN deal! Carefull here ... market toppy, LOOK turning over, potential bad news on the horizon. There's no obvious direction in the chart patterns to me ... I was expecting a continued move up, out till the pattern solidifies.
Regards
Damn .. missed the close .. $3.43 is good ... have to look back over the trades ... cattle work calls ... watch AH to see if the close was "painted"
Regards
LOOK being sold, $3.40 now (pop n drop confirmed), YHOO down all day, watching the close but doubt it'll reverse from here ... $3.42 key level.
Regards
TA ... YHOO filled a month long gap and settled near high on increased volume ... watch this one tomorrow for first signs of potential trouble. Pop n Drop ???
LOOK ... made a perfect failure at resistance, a close of $3.42 or better tomorrow is now needed to convince me to re-enter ... sold at close.
Good luck.
Regards
From what I see ... the bullish wedge was slightly broken to the upside ... this is one of those days you'd want to watch the AH's a bit ... if active ... good news IMO.
YHOO's breaking out ... LOOK's having a lie in LOL (Watch the close closely ... there seem to be a couple of big sellers, when they're out of the way ... could run up into close)
Regards
LOOK TA ... tricky night ... settled near its lows after no apparent trend in the daily pattern ... IMO the key was YHOO which is looking for a break up (short lived???) ... so the MMs seemed to pick on LOOK at awkward times and the longs just can't stand the heat and just folded.
That spike down looks inevitable now ... we'll see.
Regards
Interesting action today ... no spike down but it looks like someones manipulating to accumulate. Tight stops. Regards
TG ... fair enough ... I imagine if it does spike down to $2.94, it will be just that and it would recover to $3.06/08 - $3.12/14 in the same day so you'd never get the same movement in Oz. Good luck.
TA ... fairly major support $2.94 ... couple smaller ones on the way there ... no real sign of support in Oz, IMHO ... YUM!
LOOK bounced perfectly off $3.13, probable turn here, found some credit to have a play .... glad I was awake at the time, gawd this TA stuff is lucky!!! LOL Waaaahooooooooooooooo!!!!
Traden ... LOOK doing OK, but IMO still an inside day, has to break one way or the other ... 6mnth Slow Sto looks absolutely terrible ... be a brave TA'er to bet on the upside looking at that chart .. best away. WAVX ... sold the lot, end of the fun (for now) I suspect. NVGN ... 100% of my US account as of now ... just love the cycle count there. (mucho cash/junior golds in Oz) Going to have a bit of a break and let the stocks come to me now ... all set up to get fit and wear out a couple of chainsaws through Spring here .. just set staggered LOK orders ... have cellphone from some forest peak .. can trade! They're used to my windblown calls from the middle of nowhere with coverage cutting out and taking four calls to complete a trade! Regards