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Just read the article you posted. The interesting part to me is the comment about providing better access to meds which I assume means more affordable. This is where I think the attack in ariad loses some steam. If the patient has insurance I'm not sure that the price increase really impacts them and thus doesn't impact their access. If the patient doesn't have insurance and are able to access the drug through ariad's patient assistance program the price increase would also not impact access. Is my thinking flawed here. Looking for others tempered views.
Again i don't really care they might. If Mary Shapiro's husband's firm was not independent then go get it. She, he and his firm can take the fall. Again not ariad specific. Just more potential inappropriate conflict of interest with the government. It's rampant. What's it mean to us. How can we as shareholders benefit by furthering this action.
Well then i stand corrected. Should it come to fruition maybe she will be involved. However i don't have the same position as you do when it comes to ariad. Although being negatively impacted by its price decline due the unfortunate iclusig outcome of years past i don't think the ariad drama is nearly as egregious as you and i don't think anyone will bring ariad before congress. Lots of problems in the world. This isn't the poster child of wrong doing. Is there some shady stuff, sure, but it pales in comparison to others.
I don't know why Elizabeth Warren would be involved. She started the consumer financial protection bereau so when you see here taking down CEOs its in the financial service industry. This it outside the wheelhouse she normally operates in. If ariad is on the stand i wouldn't expect Warren to be involved.
Just for the record no congressional hearing has been scheduled and if one is I don't think it will be ariad specific but would be an assault on orphan drug pricing in general.
I did not as I thought that it would not be productive instead I said this......
"Senator Sanders,
While I agree that the country must take action to improve its health care system, and that those improvements need to include a fair assessments of the cost of prescription drugs, I am very disappointed by your public Shaming of Ariad Pharmaceuticals via tweet last week. First, I think you need to realize that this is a company that has invested billions of dollars in research and development. While I am certain that the company's goal is to become profitable, to date, it has incurred billions of dollars in losses and its revenues are significantly less than what it invests in research and development to address unmet needs in the cancer space. Its history of losses and significant investment in R&D span over two decades.
The drug pricing you criticized specifically is for a drug called Iclusig or Ponatinib which is a very effective drug used in late stage cancer patients and undoubtedly saves the lives of many individuals with CML who have the T315 genetic mutation. Ariad is unable to sell this drug to first or second line patient's due to its current FDA label and this puts a limit on its ability to generate revenue for a drug that it spent over a billion dollars developing. I don't think that a company who hasn't, and maybe never will, recover the costs it incurred to develop its drug should be labeled as being emblematic of corporate greed.
While people's positions may vary with respect to drug pricing, calling ARIAD greedy seems very unfair in light of the fact that it has no history of profit over the last 20 years, has a well established patient assistance program, and spends considerably more money on research and development than it generates in revenue. This is not the poster child of corporate greed that you are looking for. I believe you are a good man and are trying to make positive changes. But this was not fair and now many investors are paying the penalty for your use of this company to further your cause. Your presidential campaign has given you a national voice. I hope that you do good with what is considerable power you now wield. However, it is incumbent upon you to respect that power and use it fairly. Your categorization of ARIAD as representing corporate greed was not a fair use of that power. As someone who thinks highly of you I am very disappointed and wish you reconsider your attack on ARIAD."
I'm writing an email and submitting it to him via his web page expressing my concerns that he is not being fair in regard to ariad. Going to be respectful but share my reasons why I think it's inappropriate to use inflammatory remarks about corporate greed when referring to ariad. I suggest others do the same
Doesn't matter. At the end of the day what Ariad is doing is not the poster child for corporate greed. Its not like they call a congressional hearing and start there homework when they get to the hearing. If anyone picks up this particular allegation they will quickly see that ARIAD is not profitable. That Ariad has spent billions of dollars in drug development and has never returned any money to its shareholders. They will see that the drug is life saving in a niche market and has a long road to what would be considered a financial success. While almost any company could be accused of over paying its senior leadership, the pay scale at ARIAD certainly doesn't stand out relative to the industry. It doesn't matter if you support the view that the pharma industry charges too much or not. ARIAD is not the poster child for corporate greed. Anyone who does there home work will find this out quickly and no senator is going to want to make this into a witch hunt. Far better examples out there. Whatever staffer that wrote Bernie's tweet would have known that had he/she done his/her homework.
There is no way that these tweets lead to a congressional hearing specific to ariad.
Actually he probably made the tweet about ariad because he was on a road show that day supporting proposition 61 in California.
I think that today's info out with the efficacy of Brig was a big help in the continued support of the stock price. Nice that timing actually worked in our favor for once.
After going up like a hockey stick for about a month now I finally got to implement the buy side of my Buy/sell strategy by buying back the shares I sold at 14 two days ago at 13 today. Id prefer us to just shoot straight up but this are pretty big intra day swings not to trade a little bit
Yea and the label already already provides for the 315 mutation. No one else.
Yea they still don't always pay esspecially when there are approved products available that haven't been used. Off label reimbursement becomes even more difficult outside the US
I don't understand how approval in Japan in this indication helps the possibility of moving to 2nd line. Please explain your logic. I certainly ascribe no weight from today's approval to 2nd line useage and even if I did would have ascribed the same amount yesterday as I was fully expecting approval.
In a theoretical world and under the efficient market theory today's japan approval only increases the intrinsic value of ARIAD if 1 of 2 things are true. 1. There was uncertainty. If there was a lot of uncertainty then it increases it a lot if there was little then it increases it a little. Obvious when said a loud I know. Said differently if the entire japan market was worth 1 dollar and there was a 90% chance of approval then upon approval the value from the japan market would increase from $.90 to $1. In this case I don't think there was much uncertainty so the increase in value should be nominal. The other reason why it could have increased the value is if it happened a head of schedule. If it was expected to be approved a year from now and was suddenly approved today then that would add value to the asset because you will have a longer period of cash flows. However, that is not the case here either. It was approved, as expected, prior to the end of q3.
All in all, I see no reason why the approval from Japan would be a significant driver in the price of ARIAD based solely off approval. Now maybe people are underestimating the Japan market, who knows, but that would not be cured by approval.
I certainly don't think Japan was worth 7 points. My point was after a 7 point run up I wouldn't have expected anything from it or very little. I didn't see any price specific predictions based solely on Japan. If you want to poll the audience if they were surprised that there was no run up you should.
Yes people may have been saying it over the last several months. I might have even said it three months ago when the stock was at 7. However today its not, its at 14. Poll the audience. Who thought the stock should have shot up on japan approval today with the stock already at 14 vs. then when it was at 7.
Yes the stock price did not move on today's news. However, you are aware that the stock price is up nearly 100% over three months right? Maybe some of the increase was already built in.
I mean did anyone think that after doubling the share price in 3 months the announcement of japan approval (something we all expected) would send the stock soaring? I didn't and don't expect any pats on the back for stating the obvious.
Well if I still didn't think there was upside I would have sold all my stock by now. Instead I hold 80% of it so Im still looking for further price appreciation.
My decision to start taking some profits as the price increases is due to multiple reasons.
1. I've been burned before holding out for the HUGE payoff. Maybe it will come but with every small sale I bring in a good profit.
2. I think the stock price is rising in anticipation of drug approval. I also think that by the time approval comes through that appreciation will already be priced in because everyone expects the approval. After that we are left with the reality of commercializing the drug, which is less exciting and subject to more hiccups. Biotechs rise on promise. Once the excitement of approval is over and they have to start doing the day to day ops the rational exuhberance often goes away.
3. I think the price is also rising into a buy out, which I do suspect will occur. Without the buyout though, or promise of a buyout, I think the stock price retreats again.
Just my thoughts. I still continue to hold approximately 80% of my core position but will continue to lighten my load if the stock continues its trajectory.
I've started to do the same thing. At about 10 dollars per share I started selling 5% of my holdings every time it increased $1 per share. My plan was to repurchase on subsequent dips but there haven't been any. I have a sell in today for 13.01 for 5% of my portfolio (as determined prior to when I began selling.)I put it in this morning when it was in the low 12s not thinking there would be any chance of getting to 13 today. What a surprise.
I don't think a buyout is in the cards soon but I think it either will occur or is not a realistic possibility after briga gets approved outside of us
It's an interesting thought though. Ariad has exited the sales aspect of their business outside the US. I think that's a good move but it means one of two things. After briga gets approved in the U.S they have X amount of time until approval outside of the U.S to either partner the drug (which this time I think they would do a world wide partnership or an outside the US partnership). The other option Being a full sale of the company. This piece meal partnership approach deployed for pona was a band aid solution for a company that wanted to go it alone under Berger. Everyone knows that isn't our path going forward. It's partnership or sale. When do we expect briga approval in the EU (I presume that's first after the US) because that is our drop dead date for a sale of the company. Either that or a partnership
THe verdict is in. Short interest didn't drop. Looks like the report was needed to know what was happening with the ariad's short interest for the last half of July.
Excellent factual post.
The evidence that Briga won't be first line "right out of the starting gate" is that the clinical trial results which will be used to file Briga's NDA and grant it FDA approval was not designed to evaluate the drug in a first line setting and therefor the label will not be for first line use.
I hope it's higher. More fuel for the fire
I'm sure Denner and team tore right through that email.
So you think this 3 week decline in stock price is ariad specific, due to ariad related events or is not been impacting the general markets as a whole?
I guess they should have spent more money on an ad campaign discouraging Brexit
There will be no registration statement
Today's price action, while not unexpected, is still mind boggling.
You'd didn't provide any modeling either other than to state what you though the market cap would be at he time after additional 10% dilution. No better than just stating a price.
If we are profitable that would be great but there is no way we have forward earnings of 1.3 billion two years from now. It would be amazing if we had forward revenues of a billion, no way we have forward earnings in that amount.
Oh I don't think this is a leak of buy out news I think it would be a leak of something drug related....... results, next steps, early NDA submission etc etc.
Could be a leak of positive news that's coming
I kinda figured that today's increase was due to the announcement of the p 1/2 trial. However could be that its a run up into ASCO as well. Didn't really think the cost cutting measures would generate too much excitement. I think they are wise and needed but can't see a large pop like this off of cost cutting measures. Hopefully this next week continues the stock price appreciation into and during ASCO
Thanks. I appreciate the TKO.
I've been a CPA for 18 years if you don't want to believe me what is included in basic and diluted shares thats fine. I'll post an excerpt from ASC 260 the accounting literature. Here it is. Read the last paragraph. It describes how you treat convertible debt when computing the diluted shares outstanding. You see diluted shares outstanding is based on an accounting computation. Diluted shares has many many inputs to the calc.. ARIADS convertible shares from the debt would be included in the calc for diluted shares if it were dilutive. That would depend on the conversation price, the current price of the stock and whether the company is currently in a positive earnings position. Im done posting excerpts from filings and literature to refute assertions that are not factual Im gonna go enjoy the rest of the memorial day weekend now.
b. If an entity has convertible debt outstanding:
1. Interest charges applicable to the convertible debt shall be added back to the numerator.
2. To the extent nondiscretionary adjustments based on income made during the period would have been computed differently had the interest on convertible debt never been recognized, the numerator shall be appropriately adjusted. Nondiscretionary adjustments include any expenses or charges that are determined based on the income (loss) for the period, such as profit-sharing and royalty agreements.
3. The numerator shall be adjusted for the income tax effect of (b)(1) and (b)(2).
c. The convertible preferred stock or convertible debt shall be assumed to have been converted at the beginning of the period (or at time of issuance, if later), and the resulting common shares shall be included in the denominator.