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Incredible news, you are a testament to the wonders of modern medicine.
Have a great time in Costa Rica. Would you happen to be staying at a hotel I have an interest in, named "Three Corners Hotel" in the Guanacasta area.?
Barry
2013 Icliusig Sales Projections:
At the start of 2013, the analyst's sales projections for Iclusig, ranged from a low of 27 Million Dollars by Merrill Lynch (Rachel) to Mike Kings high of, I believe, 70 Million Dollars, with most of the analysts in the 40 to 50 Million Dollar range (including Harvey at 50 Million Dollars)
Based upon my following calculations, we should end 2013 with over 100 Million Dollars in Iclusig sales, calculated as follows:
Actual 1st Quarter sales were 8.5 Million Dollars (6.4 in the US and 2.1 in France).
Actual 2nd Quarter sales were 16.3 Million Dollars (13.9 in the US and 2.4 in France). 2nd Quarter sales actually increased by 7.8 Milliom Dollars Quarter to Quarter, or the equivalent of a 91.76% increase, Quarter to Quarter ( 7.8 Million increase divided by the 8.5 Million in 1st Quarter sales.
In the 3rd Quarter, we just learned this morning that today Ariad starts selling Iclusig in the UK, Germany and Austria. That means that for 60% of the 3rd Quarter (55 out of the 92 days in the quarter), and based on the 2.4 Million in sales to France in the 2nd Quarter and assuming that each of the three countries produce the same amount of sales per Quarter as does France, Ariad should sell about 4.3 Million Dollars of Iclusig to these three countries in the 3rd Quarter (2.4 (Sales in France) x 3 x 60%). Actually the sales should even be a bit higher due to the higher price that Germany will pay ($7,800 per patient per month). Even using 4.3 and adding another 2.4 for France in the 3rd Quarter, we come up with a projected 6.7 Million Dollars of Euro sales in the 3rd Quarter. The US sales increasd from 6.4 Million to 13.9 from the 1st Quarter to the 2nd Quarter, or an increase of 117% Quarter to Quarter. Given the company's quidance of a slower uptake of new patients in the 2nd Half of the year, lets use only 80% as the projected us sales increase for the 3rd Quarter over the 2nd Quarter. If we use 80%, we project us sales of 25 Million Dollars for this upcoming 3rd Quarter (13.9 Million times 1.80). Making the total projected Iclusig sales for the 3rd Quarter of 32.7 Million Dollars (6.7 in Europe and 25.0 in the US.
I am projecting an increase of about 65% for the 4th Quarter (again keeping in mind the slower uptake guidance by the company) and I come up with 4th Quarter sales of 54 Million Dollars (32.7 (3rd Quarter sales) times 1.65)
My projection for total Iclusig sales for 2013 is therefore as follows:
1st Quarter (actual) 8.5
2nd Quarter (actual) 16.3
3rd Quarter (projected) 32.7
4th Quarter (projected) 54.0
For a total of 111.5 Million Dollars of Iclisig sales for 2013
JMHO,
Barry
Was there any read on the new prescriptions for the week ended 7/26?
You can find Sobels Blog on Message # 164767 on the Biotech Values Message Board
Barry
If Iclusig sales triple next year, what will Aria shares trade at?
In my opinion, it is not an if, but almost a certainty that Iclusig sales will triple next year. And to make my case, please ponder the following:
According to all the prescription information that has been published, along with Ariad's 1st Quarter report of sales and the article written by David Sobel and published yesterday, the calculations break down as follows:
When Ariad reported it's 1st Quarter this year, we learned that sales were 6.4 Million and that by the end of the Quarter, over 400 patients were on Iclusig. That means that new patients were being put on Iclusig at the rate of a little better that 30 new patients per week. We further learned from the various reporting bureaus, and David Sobel's article, that new patient scripts peaked at 62 per week for the week ended June 7th and have fallen since then to a low of 29 per week in the week ended July 12th and last week rebounded to 41 new prescriptions for the week. Based upon those numbers, it certainly appears that Iclusig has maintained a bit over 30 new prescriptions per week since the reporting of our first Quarter.
Based upon the progress of the launch so far, I feel fairly comfortable predicting that for the year of 2013, Iclusig will average a bit over 30 new patients per week, for a total of about 1,600 patients, in the United States, put on Iclusig during 2013. That would represent a capture rate of about 65% of the estimated 2,500 CML patients that Harvey keeps telling us willl switch their TKI each year.
Now lets see about sales of Iclusig, next year.
Based upon the above, 1,600 patients will start 2014, on Iclusig. Assuming a reasonable falloff of about 15% (deaths from other causes, intolerance (if that is possible), etc) We will have about 1,350 US patients, that started Iclusig in 2013, taking Iclusig for the whole year in 2014. At $115,000 per patient per year, the 1,600 (1,350 net) US patients starting in 2013, will alone generate sales of over $155,000,000 Add to that figure the US patients that will start Iclusig in 2014, plus the European patients that started Iclusig in both 2013 and will start in 2014, and we are probably talking about total Iclusig sales of between $210,000,000 at the low end and perhaps $250,000,000 at the upper range. If, as many on this board believe, we end 2013 with US Iclusig sales of between $60,000,000 to $70,000,000, Iclusig sales for 2014 will more than triple
As I said many times in Court.... Your Honor, I rest my case.
JMHO,
Barry
We will keep you in our prayers from now on and God speed.
Bless you.
Barry
Same as last year
ASCO will publish the abstracts (ASCO.ORG) on May 15th 2013, the same date that they publihed last year's abstracts.
So, hopefully, on May 7th we find out that Iclusig sales exceeded the street's numbers and just 8 days later we will be able to read updates on both Icluig and 113. And in all probability, this will be followed (in about one month's time) by approval to sell Iclusig in the EU and the start of the GIST trial.
I for one, am looking forward
Barry
Nice post Don:
I would like to add that if the EU (as it looks like it might) approves Iclusig by mid year, the 30 average per week, is not out the question. We may very well achieve 1,500 patients on Iclusig by year's end.
Barry
Was Tim telling us today, that 113 is working on EGFR?
As part of his response to a question about 113, Tim said:
"And then ESMO is really likely also to reflect largely
our Phase 1 experience. There could be some phase 11
information in there AND WHAT WE'D GENERALLY GUIDED TO IS THAT IT'S MORE LIKELY THAT THERE'LL BE MORE OF AN INTERESTING UPDATE ON THE EGFR SIDE OF THINGS GIVEN THAT WE'RE TRYING TO REFINE THE PATIENT POPULATION THAT COME IN, IN THAT SIDE OF THE FILE AT ESMO RATHER THAN ASCO"
What's your take on how he responded ?
Barry
Will 113 work on EGFR?
All one has to do to answer that question ( at the very least know how Harvey would answer that extremley important question, for the Company) is to listen to the Leerink Swan presentation and pay particular attention to that portion that starts at the 21st minute. Concentrate on the words Harvey uses to answer the question. This is what I meant about reading between the lines.
As usual
JMHO,
Barry
One clue is how he explained the EGFR patients that were in the trial earlier and their stage of the disease and the meds they took. There are other clues, especially how he talks about the EGFR arm of the Phase 2 cohort and also his reluctance to respond to the dosage they are up to. Learning Harvey- speak- has taken me many years. Last time I used it was to predict that PONA would be approved by the FDA by about mid December and not in 1st quarter 2013.
113 working on EGFR?
Listen carefully to Harvey's presentation this morning, and if you can read between the lines, you will hear that 113 is, in fact, working on EGFR. This, was the biggest take away from the presentation.
As usual, JMHO
Barry
In Fact
In my opinion, if Harvey is ready to announce any major news on the 25th, it will be that an Iclusig/Gist Phase 111 will be commencing shortly.
I say that because I believe that the timing of the 300 million offering and the Investors conference = news of a new Phase 3 trial.
By the way, has anyone heard any recent news on the progress of Bellicum, in either of the two trials using AP1903?, or the possibility of an IPO?
Barry
Nice Poat, Bell
You hit it right on the head, nice post.
Barry
Not a shot at that happening B/R
Harvey never issues a PR prior to a presentation at any of the brokerage sponsored events. Keep in mind that we are followed by about 10 or 11 brokerage firms. How would Harvey look to the other 10 brokerage firms if he chooses one of them to make an announcement.
The proper place, and the one that has been used by Hrvey for as long as I am an Ariad investor (going on 14 years), is our Investor Conferences. We investors should be the first to know, not clients of some brokerage firm, which client may not even have a financial interest in Ariad.
Don't expect any more tomorrow that a review of what Ariad did last year and a very broad outline of what lies ahead, all of which we are all too familiar with, Harvey will not give any, heretofore unrevealed information or details about the company. These conferences are to familiarize the brokerage clients about a security that the firm is following, and recommending.
Wait for the 25th, and read the PR that is released just prior to our Investor Conference. If a new Molecule is going to be announced, you will see it right in that PR.
As usual, this is JMHO
Barry
If
If Harvey discusses it at all, it certainly will not be at a brokers conference and give those clien'ts a heads up over all the other firms that follow Ariad. We hava a chance of getting some data on the 25th, if one of the analyst's asks about it. But certainly not tomorrow.
JMHO,
Barry
Ponder my calculations.
Assuming that Rob Cos' figures and info is correct. I propose the following calculation so far.
week RX #
1 3
2 10
3 18
4 26 *
5 52
--
Total 109
* I am making this assumption for # of RX for week (a week we have no direct info) as it fits well with what Rob said, that being that week 5 doubled week 4 (26 to 52) and that was almost as much as the prior 4 weeks ( 57 vs 52 ).
With 109 patients we would have annual sales of $11,546,897 already, in just 5 short weeks, calculated as follows:
At $115,000 per year, Iclusig generates $2,211 per patient per week.
The 3 week one RX's will produce 3x2211x51 weeks = $328,283
The 10 week two RX's will produce 10x2211x50 weeks = $1,105,500
The 18 week three RXD's will produce 18x2211x49 weeks = $1,950,102
The 26 week four RX's will produce 26x2211x48 weeks = $2,759,328
The 52 week five RX's will produce 52x2211x47 weeks = $5,403,684
It sure looks like Iclusig will blow all the estimates away.
As usual this is JMHO
Barry
What I haven't heard
What I haven't heard in these estimates, is the 400+ patients that were already on Iclusig under the Compassionate use Program. I think we can safely assume that most, if not almost all, of these patients will be using and paying for Iclusig almost immediately. That is a sizeable initial market.
JMHO, as usual
Barry
Offering presold?
I am unable to determine whether or not this new offering is presold or not. Does anyone know for sure whether it is? or not?
Barry
And don't forget
And don't forget to include in the immediate customer base, the 500 patients that are now taking Iclusig on a Compassionate use basis.
JMHO
Barry
What's your source Mican?
Our Next Order of Business
Our next order of business for Ariad is to see what is in the Twenty Eight (28)Ponatinib abstracts that will be reported on at ASH starting next Saturday (12/8) and continuing till 12/11.
Followed shortly thereafter (in my opinion) by the FDA'S approval of Ponatinib's NDA and discovering what the FDA wants to see on the label.
Then we may hear about a new drug candidate (my guess is that it will address resistance and intolerance in Breast Cancer) followed by Ariad's ASCO presentations.
Has anyone heard any anecdotal evidence of 113 working on EGFR? If so, please report same.
Barry
Bellicum Ownership
We will find out exactly what % Ariad owns of Bellicum, when Bellicum files for an IPO, it will be in the prospective.
Barry
Jesspro
I am a shareholder since 1999. I enjoyed reading your post and I agree with you. I would, however, like to add just one other scientist to Schreiber and Crabtree and that is the Nobel Prize winner David Baltimore. It was the brilliance of these individuals and others (Ventnor is also brought to mind) that lured me into investing in Ariad, and I never for a moment regretted making that decision. I remember as if it were yesterday, when one day in March of 2000 Aria went up over 11 points in one day (about 3/11/2000) and my net worth went up almost one half a million dollars that day alone. I doubt whether I will ever experience a day like that again, but it sure was fun (to say the least) and I recall feeling that I was walking on air for thr rest of the day.
Barry
You are 100% correct
I Believe
That Pona will be approved by no later than 12/17/12. It will be the FDA'S way of saying "MERRY CHRISTMAS" to the many folks suffering from CML.
As Usual this is
JMHO
Price of Aria on the German Exchange
Does anyone know how we can get the price that Ariad is trading at in Germany?
Please share with us if you do.
Barry
Did We?
Did we get another downgrade today?
Hey AJ:
I guess the FDA responded to both of our posts :O) by granting both of the catalysts today.
Way to go FDA, it only took you guys less thsn 24 hrs to respond to AJ and I.
Barry
Next Catalyst
I believe that the next catalyst will be the FDA's decision on whether or not to grant Ponatinib "accelerated approval". That must be done by November 11th, which is 45 days from the completion of the NDA (Sept 27th).
Don, or someone else, please correct me if I have the wrong information.
JMHO,
Barry
We Will
We will soon find out what Harvey considers a "SHOW" lol
8:30
The website says "Doors will open at 8AM, the show starts at 8:30AM."
New drug announcement?
That's exactly my take on this morning's PR, I have been expecting an announcement before year's end, so I guess now is as good a time as any. Harvey has sure been preparing us for this in many of his recents talks by heaping a whole lotta praise on the scientific staff.
JMHO
Barry
Isn't It?
Isn't it just Wonderful to see our dreams come true!!!!!
"One 52 week high at a time"
JMHO,
Barry
Investor's Conference Speculation
Less than four (4) months ago we had our annual meeting and Harvey gave us an update on our various projects.
This was followed by an early (up to may 2012) 113 abstract released by ESMO.
This was followed by a presentation at ESMO updating the 113 data, along with a PR the same day.
We then had an analyst conference regarding what the company had just presented at ESMO on 113.
So why do you suspect that Harvey scheduled the upcoming "Investors conference (October 17)?.
What do you think he wants to tell us sharehiolders (and perhaps the world) ?.
With what has transpired these past four months (see above), I doubt that he merely wants to give us a further update, as we have already been updated.
Will Harvey be telling us (and wall street) about Ariad's new molecule and outlining the Phase 1 details? Keep in mind that Harvey has recently told us that when the next molecule is announced, the pre clinical work will be done and ready to enter into a Phase 1.
What are your thoughts about what the purpose of the Investors Conference is?
Lets hear your suggestions.
JMHO,
Barry
Yes there were 5 others
Go to the ESMO website and go to where it says "Press"
ESMO noteworthy abstracts
Of the over 1,600 abstracts submitted to the ESMO 2012 congress, 48 have been selected as NOTEWORTHY.
Ariad's Abstract #4390 was one of the 48.
Barry
Great point Don
A very well taken point Don, as I believe that I read that LDK378, had little or no effect on naive patients.
Barry
Don:
Please read it again and pay special attention to the puncuation marks, and you will see why I asked the question.
Barry