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Hi Mark
Ran VSS to see if the market has changed. Nothing new same three stocks.
I reduced the percent to 70 . Two stocks came up msft and Ko. Both blue chips Ko i believe Coke and msft is microsoft.
Both would be good for consideration in a value account.
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Hi Karw
I used quarterly closing prices. taking on the first business day of the new month after a dividend was stated. I used yahoo for historic prices.
On Sept 6 or so there was a 70 cent dividend. Oct 1 or so was the closing price of 67 dollars or so .
I just used a 1% multiplier for the number of shares per quarter, As the dividend yield is about 4% per year.
It was a way to systematize the calculations done by hand. I hope explained it if not i'll supply the actual numbers
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Hi Karw
I played a little with your idea and it seems viable. It works better with dividend reinvesting.
I ran KMb from about oct 2005 to present taking the price after the quarterly dividend assignment.
In general with dividend reinvestment it was about a 60% increase without dividend reinvestment it
was about 20%. Oh yeah it started at $67 and finished at &67. Didn't go anywhere.
In thinking about your system it seems almost similar to constant dollar system. I'm not sure.
Anyway i'm going to test it some more. Thanks for sharing
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Hi Karw
Thank you. I'm going to play with your idea and see how it works with my stoocks.
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Hi Karw
what was the exact parameters of the buy safe and sell safe . In a previous post you say the divisor was (2x0.1x buy safe) . Did you use 5%, 10% or 0% as a buy safe.
I have lots of dividend stocks with moderate beta's and am looking for a technique to harvest minor movements what you refer to as noise. I thought synchrovest or double dollar averaging would be the answer. But perhaps your method would be correct. ormore effective. Any reference to any articles or post would be appreciated.
Again I apologize if my questions are redundant or I missed a point as I am basicly a buy and hold investor.
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Hi lostcowboy
Not it
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Hi lostcowboy
That much I know. That was where I learned about it. He mentions it came out in the 1960's. It created a stir.
When i google it I don't come up with much. At amazon , if i search Lichello's book it comes up plus a book by Owen Lewis copyrighted about 1969 or so On a wild play I purchased for about 4 dollars.
I don't know if it is the source or not of the double dollar average. Its name is doubling your money every three years on wall street or such. It is an investment book. I'll let you know once I read it if it is the source of this idea.
Thanks
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Hi Lostcowboy
IN what book did Robert Lichello find the information on Double dollar averaging?
I posted a similar message on the Aim board. JUst curious about it. To see if it is suitable for what I want.
Thanks
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Hi Tom
Who wrote about , or in what book did Robert Lichello find the information on Double Dollar Averaging?
He mentions it in His Aim book in discussing Synchrovest.
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Hi Lostcowboy
I'm basic a value investor looking for good stocks with dividends and low fundamental ratios.
Many of these stocks fluctuate up and down burt not greatly I dollar cost average or systematicly purchase shares on a weekly bases in my IRA. I am looking for a method to maximize returns so when they the stocks fluctuate I take a profit and when they are relatively cheap I buy.
I thought of what questions such a method needs to answer. It came down to six questions
1. When to buy
2. what to buy .
3. How much to buy.
4. when to sell.
5. what to sell
6, How much to sell.
I found one system on the aim board created by a thoughtful investor called Orcroft. It met the six questions. It used aim to plan the buys and sells. However Aim is not suitable for all my stocks etc.
Thus I am looking at some sought of synchrovetyish/twinvestish system in DCA family of styles to pursue a investment program. Any recommendations or modifications will greatly be apprecisted.DCa and twinvest don't take profits but synchrovest does. Again i am looking for a direction that answers those questions.
This is what I own . MO,BP,ABBT, CL,EMR,GE,INTC,JNJ,MMM,MKC,PFE,PM,. All consumer staples in general and have dividends. This will help you get a mind set of what I prefer. Again I am open to change and appreciate any and all constructive criticism or praise. I bought most on the downturn and for their dividend in a declinig market but not at the bottom of the great recessions. Ge and PFE cut their dividends The others increase theirs at reasonable rates.
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PS your board is very interesting.
Hi Lostcowboy
you can reach me at Train2018@gmail.com
Thank you
Hi info
I looked at the posts and ordered Lichello's book about synchrovest. I had to play with the numbers by hand . Pencil and paper to get the feel of it. It seems very interesting.
I'll keep you posted if i adopt one of the methods to invest with.
Thank you
Hi infooverload
I ran the numbers using advanced dollar cost averaging and dollar cost averaging. I used several stocks and mutual funds. it seems to be a more powerful technique.
Systrmatic group site is inactive but has lots of info.
Thanks
Hi Tom
I just read the twinvest chapter in Lichello book. I originally skipped over it. I have some questions on its use. Is the twinvest number the best choice to judge how much to invest. It seems to be dependent on when one goes in to the stock. One can enter near a high or a low just arbitrarily. That would influence the buys . There is also never any profit taking. It seems like a variant of perpetual dollar cost averaging type system
Is any one out there have any experience with it. What do they do with it. Is it better than DCA.
I did go to your web site and read what was there on it
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Hi Mark
Ran vss only three stocks came up STRA, ESI, DLB
Wall Street Journal today sunday Had an article on Low Beta stocks outperforming the SP 500 in general.
Dose VSS use that in any way in allocating scores to picking stocks.
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Hi Marc123
I think it is theoretical. It was invented by Clive. But I'm not sure. Sorry took so long been away. I think he is working on it and refines it as he studies it's workings. Best is to read the posts about and figure it out.
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Hi Marc
Follow ls7550 posts back in time. He knows a lot about permanent portfolio. He also use to administer the uk aim web site. There are some posts on Permanent portfolio there. Try also the Ivy portfolio it is a book about permanent portfolio. There is also a commercial mutual fund PRPFX.
Oh Yeah, There is an Ultimate Buy and hold portfolio that tom employs. Check out the Aim-users web site.
Hope it helps you in your research
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Hi Praveen
In Hind sight is there any way you could have know via some metric that you purchased at the wrong point. Perhaps the p/e or some other parameter would have signaled an ill advised purchase.
I feel the entry point in any stock purchase should signal value or a fair deal. The starting point is so importanrt in my mind.
I did buy your book and do use your constant value method on some shares I own. Again different type of shares probably are best handled by different methods.
I hope in the near future you put out a third volume . I own your original work as well as the recent update
Hi mark
Just an observation . N.Y. times List s&p 100 as a graph. Each stock is compared to its 52 week high and low range.yesterday monday 27 new highs. over 70 % were in the upper quartile (top 25% of the hi-low range).Vss is still picking 2 stocks.
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hi Mark
just an observation Ran VSS 4. only 2 stocks came up . Does this mean the market is overbought.I just don't know? I do this irregularly but I believe this the lowest i've seen it.
I've been exploring pp by posting and reading. Your vss 4. doesnt allocate etfs and mutual funds unfortunately.
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Hi Aimster
Thank you for your thoughts. I'm going to try to digest what I have learned from all who have responded to my questions. It is amazing how supportive the whole community of aimers are.
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Hi ls7550
Thank you.
I assume I can just aim the components. Would that work. Or is a constant value system like Mr. Puri better. I'm looking for simplicity. In thr Ivy portfolio book buy and hold did ok also about 9% .
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Hi ls7550
If one took a value approach to a pp or Ivy portfolio. Buying low such as using ocroft's criteria of waiting for an uptick. Would that work or is the momentum model better for this type of portfolio? I understand one approach precludes the other. One awaits a new high the other a new low.
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Hi 2040
Check out post #31172. I think it answers some of your question.
It is for a H. Brown PP and Faber's portfolio nor prpfx. And follow ls7550 posts he is an expert on this stuff.
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Hi 0ld #7
The information came from the permanentportfolio.com website. It waS A download of their literature. It is a 2 page summary of the fund.
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Hi Old #7
I got the info from the Permanent Portfolio web site. Not from the book. The book never mentions PRPFX as far as I know.
When I went to google the address I can't find the exact address to give you. But the info is correct. I copied the allocations this afternoon just before I posted.
perhaps 2040 can adjust his PRPFXC plus judicious purchase of etfs to mimic nthe IVY portfolio
One table in the book compares periods of readjustments/rebalancing. It
shows every 5 years a rebalancing returned higher returns. Possibly letting winners ride
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Hi 2040 Old #7
PRPFX has as its Ideal allocation
20 % gold
5% silver
10% swiss franc
15% Us and Foreign real estate and natural resources
15% aggressive Growth stock
35% Us bonds, treasury bills and dollar assets
This is off the permanent portfolio website.
It differs from an equal 20% division in basic 5 ivy portfolio's etfs.
Hope this helps
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Hi OLD #7
vti , veu , bnd , vnq, dbc are the etfs.
He recommends Domestic and Foreign stocks. bonds, real estate and commodities. Equal weighted. Rebalanced once a year. This is his simplest model.
I personally am a buy and holder. Through posts of croft
and others have made me start buying at lows . Where I get value
I use the VSS 4.0 for reasonable evaluation of lows.
I am thinking of using Mr. Fabers portfolio as a second type of account. I am evolving. Everything is in tax free retirement accounts now.
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Hi 2040
I have a reference for you over a permanent portfolio if your still out there. Get Ivy portfolio book or go to the ivyportfolio.com
website. He constructs a sleep at night portfolio good moderate returns and low losses.
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Hi ls7550 and tom
I just discovered Mebane Faber has written a book about a permanent portfolio
type of account copying harvard's and yale's endowment funds. It is written for beginners like me. It is called the Ivy portfolio. Maybe some aimers who want to use portfolio theory and don't know where to start may be interested in it.
Hi Mark
Is this a new version. What new features does it have?
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Hi ls7550
Is there a site where one can purchase my way or download this alternate aim program.
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Hi Adam
As i understand his technique . He tracks a stock down using aim by the book to keep track of a potential buy . He tracks the stock for a year of history. when the stock reverses and his preferred moving averages confirm a price advance by crossing . 13 and 26 day moving averages I believe .he enters one large buy of the cumulative stocks he would buy had he practiced classical aim. Should the stock falter and further decline he doesn't pursue it downward.
He sells after two aim sales recommendation of or one 20% advance. I hope this helps. But please see his original posts.
I might be off in some of the details.
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Hi Adam
Ocroft had a similar approach of waiting for an uptick to enter a position. His philosophy answers what to buy when to buy and how much to buy as well as when to sell. You might want to study his posts to see if it is applicable to your needs.
I Have been applying it with modest success.
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Hi JRX
Pfizer cut their dividend yield a few years ago when things were really bad. This made the stock value decline. You might have had a winner but the value changed with that act of dividend reduction.
Hi Neko ls7550
I double checked Jeremy Siegels Future for investors book. Populariziation of stocks for the long run. I wanted to be sure I was accuratge
His stocks that succeeded were in Pharmaceutical, Tobacco and consumer staples also petroleum. None were high tech.They had relatively low or average p/e . They had dividend growth . They were not expected to do well. They had strong moats and brand recognition. Neko I recommend you read the book to get an idea of what works in picking dividend stocks.
Hi ls7550
When I use yahoo basic charts and compare vanguards value to the s&p it performs less well
However some of the members of the original s&p 500 members from way back such as pg, jnj,abt performed better than the s&p 500. I tested for 5 years and Max on yahoo's basic chart using the comparison feature
Mo which is his best performer was split in three. Altria, Philip Morris international and Kraft. So i excluded testing it.
Because a fund has a label doesn't necessarily mean it is a representative of that group. I am not sure what operational definition is best to describe value.
But what i have read and understand in my limited way is that substantial dividends for the circumstances at hand which grows at least moderately over the long run will either equal or beat the market. The dividend will also cushion a decline when markets get Nasty.
Again from my limited studies Entry point of a stock position is very important for success.
important
Hi Neko
Jeremy Siegel emphasized value. The stocks that performed well had minimal expectation of great success. They were out of favor. Not necessarily of no value. These discounted stocks through time and dividend reinvestment outperformed the more favored stocks.
Basicly entry point is important, buying low ,good quality out of favor stocks with dividend reinvestment can works wonders over time . Remember to diversify to reduce risk
Hi mark
1.
I ran recently the vss 4 screen . These stocks interested me
ko 81 mote 6
bdx 81 5
cl 88 5
mcd 78 5
plus single stock screen
abt 66 mote 3
When I asset allocated .it gave these percents
abt 24%
bdx 19
cl 20
mcd 18
ko 17
Why did it give the largest share to the weakest stock, abt? Wouldn't it favor the strongest stock?
2. is there a more recent version of vss. if so, What advantages does it have over version 4.?