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RALEIGH, N.C. -- Monica Alexander needs a full-time job.
A certified nursing assistant, she just started working about 28 hours a week as a home companion in Wake County, N.C. That's a major improvement over the eight hours she had been clocking each week for six of the past seven months.
Alexander is one of 7.5 million Americans struggling to find full-time work who settle for part-time jobs amid an atmosphere of stress, depression and low finances. Their numbers remains stubbornly higher in the current economic recovery, compared with the peaks of the recessions over the past three decades.
Indeed, the number of unemployed people is 24 percent higher now than it was in December 2007
when the recession began. But the number of people like Alexander -- known as involuntary part-time workers -- is 66 percent higher, more than double what it was back then.
One reason is a gap in the kinds of skills needed to find work in an increasingly technological workplace. Many employers also remain uncertain about the economy and hesitant about deeper financial commitments.
And hiring part-time instead full-time employees is one way some businesses are getting around the costs of a mandate in the health care law that requires employers with 50 or more full-time workers to provide insurance coverage beginning in January.
"The pace of decline in part-time employment is smaller now than what we've seen in other recoveries," said Gus Faucher, a senior economist at PNC Financial Services Group in Pittsburgh. "Businesses have been cautious about moving workers from part time to full time."
Alexander, 43, lives with three of her four children in Zebulon, N.C., population 4,433. They live in Section 8 housing, a type of federally subsidized low-income housing, in the Research Triangle, a region near Raleigh and Durham clustered with universities and high-tech companies. Last year, she earned about $7,000.
"It's been a struggle to keep food in the house, to keep gas in the car," she said. "My 17-year old was making comments, `Well, Mom, do we really have to live like this?' "
Alexander's monthly grocery bill for four people and their dog, Tiny, runs between $150 and $200, or roughly $12.50 per week per person. She's reluctant to use her car to apply for jobs for fear that it will be a waste of time and money. The family supplements its income with two disability checks: one for Alexander because she is hearing disabled, and one for a son who has an attention deficit disorder.
Sometimes relatives bring food over for the children, but Alexander's two ex-husbands pay no child support; one is unemployed and the other is in jail, she said.
Alexander is currently taking college classes to become a certified nurse by the end of next year.
The classes are paid for by the Capital Area Workforce Development Board, a federally funded employment agency in Raleigh. Meanwhile, she applied for a full-time job at McDonald's in July but has not heard back.
"You're waiting and waiting and waiting," Alexander said. "In the meantime you could actually starve. That's what it feels like: 'Am I going to starve before I get this decent job?' "
Economists stress that the monthly number of part-time workers is a volatile statistic, subject to frequent swings.
In March 2010, the number of involuntary part-time workers peaked at 9.2 million. It's now 7.5 million, five years into the economic recovery that began in 2009.
Still, even that lower amount is higher than it was during the recessions of the early 1980s, '90s and 2000s.
The number of involuntary part-time workers actually increased in 16 states between 2012 and 2013.
Dominick Finelle applies for full-time work about five times a week, even though he says he might not be qualified for all of the jobs. A self-described workaholic, Finelle earned a six-figure salary for about 15 years as a freelance illustrator of book covers between the late 1980s and early 2000s. Publishers Simon & Schuster, Penguin Books USA and Time Warner printed his illustrations. Work paid well.
His hours began to steadily decline in 2005 as the publishing industry struggled and book sales declined. Finelle moved to Cary, N.C., in 2006 with his wife, Claudia, and their three children. He has worked 10-15 hours a week for the past four years.
Read more here: http://www.bradenton.com/2014/08/07/5290981/part-time-workers-find-full-time.html#storylink=cpy
China goes under. No country will escape the economic disaster
lol here more my type of light reading
Stock trader who called three crashes sees 20% collapse
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/stock-trader-who-called-three-crashes-sees-20-collapse-2014-07-28?link=MW_story_popular
lol I like the way this guy thinks ....
>>>>>>>>>
For Cook, that means being flexible enough to change strategies and take a 180-degree turn. “The scenarios we will see in the future will be totally different than what is now,” he says. “You will have to navigate differently. It’s like going through a jungle that ends and becomes a desert. There is only one constant, and that is change.”
In fact, Cook excels in volatile markets. “I’m amazed that we have gone over two years without a double-digit correction,” he says. “Without volatility, you get a complacent environment like we have now, which can lead to devastation. You can’t stay at these complacent levels forever. When there is a correction, it will be very severe.” Cook says that when volatility gets light (like it is now), traders and investors give up. “A lack of volatility is not good for the market,” he says. “Low volatility begets thinness, and that begets low volume, which equals greater risk.” One day, he adds, volatility will return, and so will the traders.
lot of them are a waste of time
actually all u have to do is register I don't pay for anything I get from them
Buffett's a freak. And much of his fabulous long term performance can be explained by his consistent use of low cost leverage.
here a guy u ought to like
A Frothy Market Has Nothing To Do With Investing In Individual Stocks
http://seekingalpha.com/article/2368265-a-frothy-market-has-nothing-to-do-with-investing-in-individual-stocks
Paul B. Farrell
July 24, 2014, 9:33 a.m. EDT
Great Crash of 2016, third $10 trillion loss this century
Commentary: Greenspan’s ‘black box’ syndrome now handicaps Yellen
Stories You Might Like
By Paul B. Farrell, MarketWatch
Sometime after the Great Crash of 2016, Fed Chairwoman Janet Yellen will be testifying before Congress, just like Alan Greenspan was forced to do in 2008. She will be explaining why America has already had three megacrashes in the 21st Century, each draining roughly $10 trillion, each a direct result of Federal Reserve policy failures. She will be forced to explain why the Great Crash of 2016 was a clone of the bank credit crash of 2008 and the 2000 excesses.
Getty Images
Former Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan.
But we already know exactly what Yellen will be forced to admit: That she is a clone of Alan Greenspan, who was a perfect clone of capitalism’s patron saints, Milton Friedman and Ayn Rand, going back decades. To fully understand this self-destructive lineage, simply focus your laser on the one admission Greenspan made to Congress in 2008, eight words that explain why Greenspan’s bizarre capitalism failed and why it will happen again and again under Yellen ... “I really didn’t get it until very late.”
No, you don’t have to be a neuroscientist, psychologist or behavioral-finance genius to understand what Greenspan was saying, in this confession to Congress, to American investors, the whole world:
Greenspan says capitalism was working just fine ... in his head ... for decades ... then suddenly, capitalism stopped working ... capitalism exploded in his face ... capitalism is a bubble machine ... very predictable bear-bull cycles ... and a bad habit of exploding ... just when you hope to get just a little richer ... but instead, capitalism’s bubble explodes ... triggering trillions in losses ... did it in 2000, again in 2008, certain to repeat around 2016 ...
He was on the job 18 years, Not enough. Unfortunately the esteemed head of our monetary system never “really got it until very late.” Capitalists never do “get it.” Never will get it. Neither does Yellen, she’s just a clone of robotic Greenspan. It’s the curse of capitalist leaders.
Greenspan was rigid, dogmatic, ideological, misleading 95 million American investors and billions worldwide for 18 years as de facto head of the world’s monetary system. His book “Age of Turbulence” netted him a nice $8.5 million, lots of speaking and consulting fees. But the stock market he left behind crashed in 2008 with investors losing over $10 trillion in market cap, on top of the trillions lost earlier in 2000 during the middle of his tenure as Fed chairman.
So put it on your calendar, a new bubble is certain to explode in Yellen’s face by 2016 with trillions more market cap lost.
Greenspan ‘black box’ syndrome infected Bernanke, then Yellen’s brain
The “Greenspan black box,” a neural data recorder, saved everything in his brain for the past 40 years. And you don’t have to be a neuroscientist, psychologist and behavioral economist to analyze the data is in Greenspan’s brain, with contrarian evidence there, but hidden. That’s why he said: “I really didn’t get it until very late.” The risks were actually in his neural system, but isolated and ignored ... till too late.
Yes, our Fed leaders’ brains know their capitalist dogma has stopped working but can’t admit it, hang on to a failing system rather than moving on. Greenspan tried, confessed: “Those of us who have looked to the self-interest of lending institutions to protect shareholders’ equity, myself included, are in a state of shocked disbelief.” But Bernanke, and now Yellen still prop up America’s failing capitalism.
But while the facts were there, Greenspan’s brain blocked the warnings: “I really didn’t get it until very late,” too late to change course. It took the 2008 exploding bubble before Greenspan was shocked awake. Then, finally aware his 40-year theories of capitalism weren’t working, Greenspan admitted to the world: “Yes, I found a flaw, that’s precisely the reason I was shocked because I’d been going for 40 years or more with very considerable evidence that it was working exceptionally well.”
For 40 years his capitalist brain favored ideology over facts ... beginning back in the 1960s, a couple decades before Reagan appointed him Fed chairman and he served from 1987 until early 2006 ... while he advised four American presidents ... while congressional leaders trusted his judgment and guidance ... while central banks worldwide hung on his every word for 18 long years ... as capitalists called him “Maestro” and “Rock Star.” Yes, Alan Greenspan was the great oracle of capitalism for investors worldwide.
Capitalism works? Bubbles, crashes, cycle repeats ... who can’t “get it?”
Then, after 40 years, something bad happened ... capitalism stopped working. So let’s rerun Greenspan’s tape, analyze it in our neural brain translator. The setting: Greenspan in Washington, a few years after he left the Federal Reserve.
Time stamp: October 2008, just days before the McCain-Obama presidential elections. A time GOP conservative easily forget. Wall Street, banks, financial markets crashing, chaos, economies failing, governments bankrupt. As Greenspan was testifying to the U.S. Congresss
Translation: “Yes, I found a flaw in capitalism ... and I was shocked ... for over four decades, 40 years ... my brain had been collecting massive evidence proving beyond a reasonable doubt to my satisfaction that capitalism was working incredibly well ... but then capitalism crashed ... yes, even as head of the American and world monetary system, impacting all economies ... I just didn’t get it until too late.”
Our translator continues with Greenspan: “Yes, it took me 40 years of working with the economics of capitalism, using theories learned from great capitalist brains like Nobel economist Milton Friedman, author of “Capitalism and Freedom,” and conservative philosopher Ayn Rand, author of classics “Atlas Shrugged” and “The Fountainhead,” a long-time personal friend and mentor who once said, ‘when I say capitalism, I mean a pure, uncontrolled, unregulated laissez-faire capitalism,’ I, Alan Greenspan, was certain capitalism was working perfectly ... until the capitalism just stopped working in 2008.”
Sadly, Greenspan “really didn’t get it until too late to stop the crash ... didn’t get that free market capitalism was seriously flawed.” Get it? Capitalism’s failed twice and will certainly fail a third time in the 21st century. Will we ever learn? Will our leaders ever get it? Or will they keep driving us past the point of no return?
Bottom line: What Greenspan missed: Fact-cycles beat theory-ideology
What was it Greenspan, Bernanke, now Yellen never “get?” Very simple, the facts. Our Fed leaders not only favor big banks, billionaires, CEOs and insiders, but they simply ignore the facts that capital markets move in predictable cycles. Markets work until they don’t work. Rise to a peak. Explode. Crash. Bears naturally follow bulls. This time is never different. There is no perpetual money machine for capitalist. Facts always trump ideology.
Capitalism is a bubble machine. It blows bubbles. Pretty bubbles that inevitably explode. Then the cycle repeats and repeats and repeats in a statistically predictable pattern. Greenspan missed it in 2008. And, unfortunately, Yellen will miss it in 2016.
Still, the cycles have very well-known pattern: As Investors Business Daily publisher Bill O’Neil summarized in his classic, “How to Make Money in Stocks,” for the past century the average bull cycle runs for an average of 3.75 years. Then falls into a bear for an average nine months. And since it skipped 2013, experts like Jeremy Grantham, founder of the $118 billion GMO money-management firm, is predicting another huge multitrillion dollar crash, a repeat of 2000 and 2008. It will hit us around the next presidential election in 2016.
Although the average human knows capitalism dogma is seriously flawed, our Fed leaders will just keep spreading it, till it’s too late to stop capitalism’s kamikaze trajectory. Worse, there are no incentives to change the system Adam Smith invented and Greenspan, Rand and Friedman have distorted. Quite the contrary, today’s dysfunctional inequality-breeding capitalism keeps getting stronger: Why? Dodd-Frank reforms are dying as the collective power of America’s too-big-too-fail banks, hedge funds, CEOs and private-equity firms keeps growing, protected by anti-government politicians, do-nothing conservatives, weak Democrats, but most of all, a new capitalism where fewer than 100 billionaires own more than half the assets in the entire world.
Eight words that define capitalism: “I really didn’t get it until very late”
Yes, those 8 words say it all: “I really didn’t get it until very late.” That’s capitalism, a game of musical chairs. Admit nothing, till after a collapse. Thanks to the capitalist theories of Friedman and Rand, Greenspan was destined to fail America for 18 long years, is still claiming he didn’t “get it” till too late. Then Bernanke. Now it’s Yellen’s turn. America’s monetary leaders just don’t get it ... and they never will ... until it’s too late ... except next time capitalism implodes, taking American markets and the global economy into a big black hole, forever.
Paul B. Farrell is a MarketWatch columnist based in San Luis Obispo, Calif. Follow him on Twitter @MKTWFarrell.
The Baltic Dry Index Collapses To 18-Month Lows; Worst July Since 1986
Tyler Durden's picture s ubmitted by Tyler Durden on 07/22/2014 17:51 -0400
The bulls will ignore it, shrugging that it's merely over-supply of ships that the resurgent world economy will quickly soak up as it 'recovers'... However, World GDP growth expectations are collapsing, trade volumes are slowing, and the Baltic Dry Index has continued to slump to its lowest since the start of January 2013 (a holiday period). For some context, this is the lowest July level for the Baltic Dry since 1986... "noise"
There's this...
and then there's this...
Which is the worst July level for the global shipping index since 1986...
* * *
And if you think the market is just ignoring this... think again... The bonds of CMA CGM - France's largest world wide shipping firm - are tumbling...
* * *
Of course - H2 will be great and this is just a 13-month dump of noise...
lol u know they will with out a doubt sell u all kinds of crap !!!
I see very little difference between any penny stock and a 3x junior goldminer ... both are crap
u know that SPY are ETF's so are QQQ's if u would have bought them back in march of 09 u enjoy a hell of a gain... and IMO that's long term
BTW I am not going to waste my time posting a chart lol time to get some sleep
almost all cash have a little MDLZ with a nice gain
and little NEM with a nice loss lol I keep it around in the chance that gold might go crazy which I currently don't see happen ...
even sold all my short term bonds fund ... so the Fed can have a bond fire any time it wants lol
BTW I like MDLZ long term lol that is unusual for a trader.
other than that I been trading in and out of BIS and RWM which I current don't have any cause I got stop out friday and have not seen a reentry point yet lol and yes they are both short ETF's
The 2 Charts That Have BofA Worried About A "Greater Correction" In Stocks
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 07/20/2014 14:20 -0400
While the S&P500 rebounded sharply on Friday, BofAML's Macneil Curry warns evidence continues to say that this is a very late stage advance from which a greater correction is forthcoming. The recent deterioration in breadth (52wk highs failing to keep track with price), the negative seasonal period and divergences between the broader indexes say that risk/reward is skewing to the downside. Bottom Line: "The S&P 500 is vulnerable."
Via BofAML's Macneil Curry,
The S&P500 is vulnerable
While the trend in the S&P500 is still higher, with potential for a near term push towards 2000; this is a very late stage advance from which we look for a medium term correction. 1944 (the June-26 low) is key. Below here confirms a top and turn...
The 2 charts he is most concerned about...
Breadth...
The bearish divergence for new 52-week highs from last May points to fewer and fewer new 52-week highs as the S&P 500 has continued to rally to new all-time highs. This suggests weaker internals.
The divergence in new 52-week highs from last May is a sign of a maturing rally from late 2012.
and Seasonals...
With President Obama in his second
term, 2014 is an incumbent mid-term.2014 is following the incumbent midterm year YTD through June. The pattern calls for a June/July peak ahead of a pullback into September.This has the potential to support large and mega caps relative to small caps.
Going back to 1928, July is the strongest month of the year with an average return of 1.52% and is up 57% of the time.
However, June was up 1.9% and July returns tend to fizzle, not sizzle, after an up June. When the month of June is up, July is up only 51% of the time and has an average return of 0.48%. This is well below average for July and a below the average monthly return for all months of 0.59%.
Average:
2.333335
Fade the Break?
Marc To Market's picture
Submitted by Marc To Market on 07/19/2014 10:40 -0400
There is a generally shared view that growth differentials will lead to wider interest rate differentials that will spur the long awaited dollar rally. The markets are anticipatory in nature, and many observers suspect that dollar rally has begun.
The Dollar Index rose to a one-month high before the weekend, extending the push through the 200-day moving average that had occurred earlier in the week. At midweek, the 50-day average moved above the 200-day average in what some technicians refer to as the golden cross.
Despite the disappointing housing starts, other economic data suggests the US economy not only expanded by a little more than 3% in Q2, but the positive momentum has carried over into the start of Q3. The Bloomberg consensus expects the world's largest economy to expand at a 3.1% annualized clip in both Q3 and Q4.
However, the US 10-year yield has no traction. It dipped below 2.44% last week, as stock market fall, housing st. arts crumbled (only in the south, but enough to drag the national aggregate dramatically lower) and geopolitical tensions rose. The yield is off seven bp in the past week and 14 bp in the past month. The 2.48% close was the lowest weekly close since the end of May.
Some of the factors that drove US yields down also drove the yen higher, like the geopolitics and the sharp sell-off in stocks on July 17. The dollar successfully tested the JPY101 level for the second time in two weeks. There is a band of resistance in the JPY101.50-65 area. It needs to be overcome to take the pressure off a re-test.
Before the weekend, the euro broke below the $1.35 level for the first time since February. It is approaching a trend line on the weekly bar charts that comes in near $1.3470. Although technical indicators, like the MACDs, are trending lower, and the 5-day average is below the 20-day, we are not convinced this is the long anticipated breakout.
We suspect the euros's break of $1.35 was a bit of a fluke, perhaps driven by the cross against the yen. The break took many by surprise, but strong bargain hunting quickly emerged and the euro finished net-net little changed from the previous session, which itself was little changed from its previous session. Essentially the euro has been unchanged on a closing basis since July 16.
A combination of an upside surprise on US inflation and a downside surprise of the euro area flash PMI readings could give the market the incentive to push the euro through the weekly trend, in which case the next target is $1.34. Nevertheless, we suspect the $1.35-$1.37 trading range will remain intact, even if it frays a bit.
Sterling technical tone has deteriorated, and the 5- and 20-day moving averages are set to cross over the next couple of sessions. Sterling spiked to new highs in response to the CPI's upside surprise. However, that high was not confirmed by the technical indicators. This has created a bearish divergence.
We do not think that sterling has peaked yet, but the technicals and market positioning suggests caution is warranted. New buying is likely to emerging on a further pullback into the $1.6950-$1.7000 area.
Within a narrow consolidative range, the Australian dollar staged an outside up day as the government seemed more relaxed about the currency’s strength than the central bank. The technical tone is favorable. The RSI has turned up, and the MACDs are about to. The next target is near $0.9460.
The technical tone of the Canadian dollar is not as favorable. The Aussie looks set to outperform the Loonie. It is flirting with CAD1.01, which it tested three times last week. A break of this would signal a move toward CAD1.0200-50.
The US dollar spiked to CAD1.08 on the central bank’s statement indicating that although the CPI has not peaked, the gains are likely to prove temporary and full capacity utilization was pushed out again. As if on cue, before the weekend the June CPI figures were stronger than expected and the greenback fell to almost CAD1.07.
We suspect that the quick move to CAD1.08 was a shakeout of weak late longs. As of July 15, the speculators in the futures market had a gross long Canadian dollar position that was the largest in nearly 18 months. It has doubled in the past month. A consolidation phase would not be surprising in the near-term.
The US dollar closed just below MXN12.95 before the weekend. It is the lowest weekly close in six weeks. The net long position in the futures market has been essentially unchanged for the past four-reporting periods. However, what appears to be the driving force is the demand for peso-denominated government debt. Foreign holding of official peso debt is at a record. They are anticipating the opening up of Mexico’s energy market, with draft rules approved by Senate committees last week.
The next level of support is seen near MXN12.90. We still look for a retest on the MXN12.80 area, even though the previous head and shoulders pattern did not unfold as hoped.
Lastly, given the anticipated growth and price pressures, we continue to think that US 10-year yields below 2.5% are not sustainable. A move back above the 2.56%-2.57% area will help stabilize the tone.
Observations from the speculative positioning in the futures market:
1. Position adjustments were minor in the latest Commitment of Traders report for the week ending July 15. Of the 14 gross currency futures positions, 11 were adjusted by less than 5k contracts. The only significant position adjustment (we define as more than 10k contract change) was the 11.5k contracts added to the gross short position. It now stands at 112.4k contracts, which is by far the largest short position among the currency futures. The gross short yen position of 71.3k is is the second largest.
2. Speculators continued to accumulate Canadian and Australian dollars. The gross long Canadian dollar position edged 2.1k contracts higher to 60.4k. This is twice as much as a month ago. The gross long Australian dollar position rose 4.2k contracts and has grown 7-fold since mid-March to 70.9k contracts.
3. Although gross sterling longs slipped fractionally, at 86k contracts it is still larger than the gross long euro, Swiss franc and yen futures positions combined.
4. There was a sharp reduction in the net short 10-year Treasury futures. This was not a function of short covering. In fact, the gross shorts edged higher by 5.7k contracts to 479.2k. The reason the net short position fell to 53.6k contracts from 96.8k is because new longs came into the market. The gross long Treasury position increased by more than 10% to 425.6k contracts
what a wasted post on a stock form
one of the last places on this plant I would like to go is los Angeles now if it was in Vegas I might go there but would not attend the waste of time meeting .. lol
I remember u ...
u have these kind of twisted views ..
like long term investor don't trade in and out of position, buffett does in fact he has probably 1/2 of a dozen trades that work for him.
lol and buffett does time the market... take the time to read this:
Has Warren Buffett Nailed Another Market Top?
http://www.forbes.com/sites/sharding/2013/09/20/has-warren-buffett-nailed-another-market-top/
or this one
Warren Buffett's 'Single Best Measure' Of Stock Value Is Getting Pretty High
http://www.businessinsider.com/warren-buffett-stock-valuation-indicator-2014-5
I could go on for a long time here but I am done...
BTW People who trade stock usually fine out if they can make money doing it in 12 to 18 months them that can't fade away or post crap on Ihub with the intent to play with peoples mind
Federal Debt to Reach 106% of Economy in 2039, CBO Says
By Kasia Klimasinska Jul 15, 2014 11:05 AM CT
The U.S. debt held by the public is expected to rise to 106 percent of the economy in 2039 from 74 percent this year, largely driven by increases in the cost of health benefits, the Congressional Budget Office said.
To put federal finances on a sustainable path, Congress must boost revenue, cut spending on benefit programs or combine the approaches, the nonpartisan CBO said in its long-term budget outlook released today.
“The unsustainable nature of the federal tax and spending policies specified in current law presents lawmakers and the public with difficult choices,” CBO said in the report. “Unless substantial changes are made to the major health-care programs and Social Security, spending for those programs will equal a much larger percentage of GDP in the future than it has in the past.”
The CBO projected in April that the U.S. budget deficit will narrow to $492 billion this year, the lowest level since 2008 and down more than 60 percent from a record $1.4 trillion in 2009.
Higher spending on Medicare and Medicaid will cause the budget deficit to begin increasing in 2016, according to CBO’s projections.
As a share of the economy, the budget deficit will increase to 3.7 percent in 2024 and 6.4 percent in 2039, from 2.8 percent in 2014, the agency said today.
Senator Hatch
Senator Orrin Hatch, a Utah Republican, said in a statement that the CBO report “is a stark reminder of the urgent need for entitlement reform.”
The CBO in April projected that this year’s debt would be 73.8 percent of U.S. gross domestic product. The debt will rise to 78 percent of GDP in 2024 and increase to 106 percent in 2039, a level seen only once before in U.S. history, just after World War II, CBO said today.
“Federal spending for Social Security and the government’s major health-care programs -- Medicare, Medicaid, the Children’s Health Insurance Program, and subsidies for health insurance purchased through the exchanges created under the Affordable Care Act -- would rise sharply,” CBO said.
By 2039 those programs would reach 14 percent of GDP by 2039, “twice the 7 percent average seen over the past 40 years,” CBO said.
Also contributing to the higher cost will be higher interest payments on the debt, the CBO said.
“The government’s net interest payments would grow to 4.5 percent of GDP by 2039, compared with an average of 2 percent over the past four decades,” according to the report.
Last year, CBO expected the 2039 debt-to-GDP ratio at 102 percent, the report said.
“The nominal amount of debt projected for 2039 is nearly the same in both projections, but GDP is now projected to be a bit smaller, resulting in a slightly higher ratio of debt to GDP,” the CBO said.
To contact the reporter on this story: Kasia Klimasinska in Washington at kklimasinska@bloomberg.net
top of the morning to u
I am a trader not and investor {differently not an investor currently have very few stock that I have held over 6 months...
I even sold all my short term bonds...}
FWIW IMO I don't think very many retail investors are in the market... which means very few bag holds and short interest is at a very low level ...if something happen like in 87 u could see this market drop 1000 point or worse they shut it down ... maybe not open it up for a week..
JMO
sorry EZ not interested but I hope it works out for u
Fed Members Reach Peak Complacency
Tyler Durden's picture
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 07/13/2014 13:22 -0400
Federal Reserve
Unemployment
Volatility
Amid consternation at the market's low levels of volatility - and concerns voiced regularly by Fed officials of 'complacency' - it appears the FOMC has never been more confident in its omnipotence. As WSJ reports, despite being consistently too optimistic about economic growth and too pessimistic about the falling unemployment rate, Federal reserve policy makers have never been less uncertain about their forecasts...
With consensus 2014 GDP expectations collapsing to +1.7% (and the Fed still at 2.1 to 2.3%), it appears the Fed's peak complacency is perfectly anti-correlated to the actual uncertainty about the future.
‘Supermoon’ coming tonight
July 12, 2014, 2:23 PM ET
Reuters
The first of summer’s three “supermoons” will light the skies Saturday.
The full moon will look unusually big and bright, since will be in one of this year’s closest approaches to Earth (the distance varies, since our satellite has an elliptical orbit).
Native Americans gave this full moon the nickname “full buck moon”, since it was the time when male deer typically begin to grow their antlers.
As usual, your mileage may vary — the brightness of the moon depends on cloud cover and other factors. The phenomenon is not rare — every year there are four to six “supermoons.”
If something does get in the way of your “supermoon,” there will be others on Aug. 10 and Sept. 9. The August one will be the closest of the year.
CNET offered a few tips on how to take photographs of the moon.
And this site allows you to select your location to check the exact time for the moonrise and the moonset up to the minute.
– Claudia Assis
Fleckenstein: Not time to short market
http://video.cnbc.com/gallery/?video=3000291080#
Raymond James’s Saut Sees 12% S&P 500 Drop in 2011 Echo
By Oliver Renick Jul 8, 2014 12:47 PM CT
U.S. stocks may be poised to decline as much as 12 percent as market conditions bear similarities to what prefaced a tumble in 2011, according to Raymond James & Associates strategist Jeffrey Saut.
The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index (SPX) sank 19 percent between April and October of 2011 as S&P’s downgrade of the U.S. government credit rating exacerbated a selloff. The benchmark index is vulnerable to a dip of between 10 percent and 12 percent in the weeks ahead before the bull market continues for years, Saut said in a research note.
“Coming into 2014 I have opined that following the kind of rally we have seen since June 2012 called for a 5 percent to 7 percent pullback in the first three months of this year (we got that), and a 10 percent to 12 percent decline sometime this year,” the St. Petersburg, Florida-based chief investment strategist wrote in a note to clients today.
The stock market’s “internal energy readings” are at levels last seen before the 2011 slide, Saut wrote on Raymond James’s website yesterday. The S&P 500 is trading for almost 18 times its companies’ reported earnings, near the highest level since June 2011. Price-to-earnings multiples have increased for eight of the 10 main industries in the benchmark index this year, Saut noted.
U.S. stocks fell a second day today, with the Nasdaq Composite Index poised for its biggest slide in more than two months, as investors sold Internet and biotechnology shares before the start of earnings season.
Stocks Fall
The S&P 500 lost 0.7 percent to 1,963.34 at 12:54 p.m. in New York. The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 106.64 points, or 0.6 percent, to 16,917.57. The Russell 2000 Index sank 1.4 percent, while the Nasdaq Composite slid 1.4 percent, the most since May 15. Trading in S&P 500 stocks was 18 percent above the 30-day average at this time of day.
Saut is not the only one concerned about the near-term prospects for the market. Many investors wonder if the rally is over after the S&P 500 almost tripled since 2009, Tobias Levkovich, chief U.S. equity strategist at Citigroup Inc., said in a report today.
“As stock indices hit new highs, there are those that fear further gains, given defensive positioning, but more worry about buying in now just in time for a severe pullback,” New York-based Levkovich wrote. “It is fair to suggest that at some point in time there will be an event that causes a much more meaningful decline in broad indices but it may not derail the overarching bull thesis.”
Japan on highest alert for ‘once in decades’ typhoon — New forecasts show direct hit at Fukushima plant — Official: “Extraordinary situation… Grave danger approaching” — Record-level winds to 170mph, waves near 50ft — Military: “Can’t stress enough how dangerous… not just another typhoon” — Astronaut: It “takes up our entire view… Wow” (PHOTOS)
Published: July 7th, 2014 at 11:10 pm ET
By ENENews
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TIME, July 7, 2014: A “once in decades” storm is approaching Japan’s southern islands with winds up to 150 mph, the country’s weather agency said [...] The Japan Meteorological Agency [predicted] the super typhoon will grow into an “extremely intense” storm by Tuesday. “In these regions, there is a chance of the kinds of storms, high seas, storm surges and heavy rains that you’ve never experienced before,” a JMA official said [...] “This is an extraordinary situation, where a grave danger is approaching.”
Weather Channel, July 7, 2014 at 10:30p ET (emphasis added): [...] sustained winds of 198 kilometers (123 miles) per hour and gusts up to 270 kph (168 mph), the Japan Meteorological Agency said [and] could be one of the strongest to hit Japan in decades, generating waves up to 14 meters (46 feet) high. “There is a risk of unprecedentedly strong winds and torrential rains” [...] Agency official Satoshi Ebihara told reporters at a news conference. [...] The storm’s slow movement could add to the potential damage [...] leaders held an emergency meeting and urged local governments and residents to take maximum precautions.
Brigadier General James Hecker, July 6, 2014: “I can’t stress enough how dangerous this typhoon may be when it hits Okinawa [...] This is not just another typhoon.”
Tweet from astronaut Reid Wiseman aboard the International Space Station: Typhoon Neoguri nearing Japan. Takes up our entire view. Wow.
AFP, July 7, 2014 at 7:00p ET: [Japan's] weather agency issued its highest alert. The top-level warning means a threat to life, as well as the risk of massive damage [...] for Okinawa’s main island, home to around 1.2 million [...] “Record-level violent winds and high waves are posing a serious danger to the Miyako island region,” Satoshi Ebihara, the Japanese weather agency’s chief forecaster, told an evening news conference. [...] massive gusts and torrential rains will possibly reach mainland Japan by Wednesday [...] The storm could affect an area with a 500-kilometre radius.
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