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Hello linda1. In response to your statement:
If my calculations are right it gives us a general idea of what has to be paid to Classes 3 & 4 in full before Class 5 can receive a distribution.
We don't know how much more the claims will be reduced, so paid in full can mean "whatever is settled on".
I don't think creditors will want A/M to put all of them in one category, so they will reconsider their exaggerated claims and stop trying to hog everything for their self centered little souls.
Hello basha. The topic you are bringing up was discussed by linda1 on the LEHNQ board:
http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=48069943
Although I am concerned, ACDU did not have a really large position as far as its' holdings were concerned. There are much bigger players out there buying up the claims so someone is interested.
Can a Guarantee in writing be voided by simply by the trustee not checking a box? I can not say.
The affiliates and inter company claims are crazy. Lehman Brothers Japan and Europe are looking for a handout in the BK. What difference would it make anyway?? Isn't it like you or I just shifting money around in "our own accounts"?? The total is still the same, just in other places ie. checking, savings, brokerage. Shift it around all you want, the total will still be the same.
And some of the other vultures have stopped circling because they know the Department of Justice may be ready to pin the naked short selling tail on the donkey.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601109&sid=aB1jlqmFOTCA
JMHO
We need to be tweaking the numbers a little more.
What about our $48 Billion loss TAX REFUND from Uncle Sam??
Has this or any part of it been accounted for anywhere?
As for me, I am willing to wait for a more functional market to bid for our equity/assets, not sell here at a small fraction of market value.
Also:
"LAMCO would only manage illiquid assets, it would not purchase them, Marsal said. However, a potential strategic partner could buy assets to be managed, he said."
This is where the undervalued part comes in. If only we knew what those illiquid assets actually were. They will and therefore be wanting to make a profit from them.
"Marsal said the creation of LAMCO would formalize a business that already employs about 450 Lehman workers to wind down the investment bank's assets, which have a book value of $57 billion. The market value of those assets, which include real estate holdings, corporate debt and derivatives, is closer to between $25 billion and $30 billion, he said."
(book value) $57B
(divided by) $25B
-------------------
(% recovery) 43.88%
NO??
Docket 7269
After giving effect to the application of Collateral to date (including from the receipt of proceeds received from the disposition of Collateral), the current outstanding amount of the Claims asserted by JPMorgan (including estimated accruals of interest and fees through March 31, 2010) is approximately $7.68 billion.
JPMorgan will reduce its remaining aggregate Claim balance from approximately $7.68 billion to approximately $557 million through application of the Cash Collateral consisting of certain cash, cash proceeds of securities and money market funds all posted by the Debtors and LBI.
Looks like JPM got $7.12B less than they claimed to me.
JPMorgan will reduce its remaining aggregate Claim balance from approximately $7.68 billion to approximately $557 million through application of the Cash Collateral consisting of certain cash, cash proceeds of securities and money market funds all posted by the Debtors and LBI.
Does it say reduce its remaining claim to $557m?
Coach, $brich$, uhlmant, others
Consider this from docket 7269,
LBHI will make a one time cash payment to JPMorgan in an amount of approximately $557 million, equal to the aggregate unpaid balance of JPMorgan’s Claims.
By providing LBHI with the ability to directly manage the remaining Collateral, LBHI believes the Agreement will result in substantially greater recoveries to more than offset the cash payment under the Agreement. The Debtors’ decision to enter into the Agreement represents a reasonable exercise of business judgment and is in the best interests of their respective estates and creditors and all economic stakeholders.
$9.000B illiquid assets
$ .557B (divide by) cash payment
----------
6% or 6 cents on the dollar
WHERE IS LEHJQ TRADING ????
But Lehman got back 9B in illiquid assets. Where did you get that it wasn't included in the 29B claim??
Claims are arbitrary numbers. The current share price is market driven. IMO
uhlmant, consider this:
29.00B claim
+ 7.68B to final
---------
28.68B
- 9.00B illiquid assets
---------
19.68B
29.00B (divided by)
---------
67% (not 100%)
uhlmant: JPM had 29B in claims
they used 21B in collateral held to offset to 7.68
So they received 100% on the first 21B
In return LEH gets back ~9B in illiquid assets
So was the 9B in illiquid assets part of the 29B? If yes, then it would be LESS THAN 100% pennies on the dollar,,, no??
Yes, so I would take Lehmans' total assets divided divided by the liabilities and you get the percentage of payout, but we don't know how much the liabilities will be reduced in the world of false claims so the payout percentage could go higher according to how the claims are resolved. JMO
Why only 15% for subordinated Debt and what number do you put on that 15%?
Yes, and I recall seeing somewhere that the collateral was priced fairly at the time. Too bad we will never know exactly what that collateral was and weather it was very depressed at the time.
RE uhlmant: the payment would be ~557M and NO it doesn't reflect that since the judge just approved it yesterday
My questions about these payments are: Are any of these payments to settle outstanding claims?? How much do they reduce the outstanding claims by?? Are the payments a small percentage of a claim to settle that claim??
Norton, you said: "That is it in a nutshell, no one knows 100% what is going to happen, there is no balance sheet to reference. :)"
That is what investing is all about -- speculation
Besides, what would the balance sheet (only numbers) tell you anyway?? I would like to see the actual holdings that make up those numbers! For example, if something is showing as undervalued, I could speculate on that investment going up over time.
Ironic, I was watching Bond,, James Bond when I read the last two posts, haha.
At the very least, we are owed some back interest on our CTs, which would amount to a tidy sum from these levels. The liquidity is returning to the market and A/M wants as much time as possible to whittle down those overblown claims. Also, time is key to the recovering value of Lehmans assets.
marayatano, you said:
Keep in mind, the money stops at general sun sec and senior unsec. General is about $800 BILLION and senior is about $100 BILLION. Even if you cut $800 BILLION in half, there is still not enough to pay common and preferreds. They are SOL.
LAMCO w/ $30 billion will NOT cover general and seniors. Cap Trusts are out of the money.
If they pool assets, then I would feel better. If the do the LAMCO way, Cap Trusts are the Lotto play.
COMMONS AND PREFERREDS are as good as wiped out UNLESS creditors find it in their hearts to part some money to equity as pitty money. IMO, not happening.
BK court for for creditors, not equity.
BTW, guarantees mean nothing (as in no double pay or if parent/sub has not enough cash/assets to cover) when you are in
BK.
You did not take into account the fact that the $800B are only theoretical claims. If you want to figure theoretical assets also, after 2 or 3 years, please do so. And, since everyone is only getting pennies on the dollar here, what makes you think 50% of the CLAIMS will be paid?
All CTs' are still selling at a pittance of a market cap. If we shake our little piggy bank we can hear all the change inside, and it's a lot more than what our shares are worth now.
CNBC is all about Lehman today. On right now.
We are both the little guy market makers who set up shop here. The big fish are going door to door soliciting.
I always say please and then thank you.
I would like to see and be able to bid on the handcuffs that take any corrupt people away to jail involved in a Lehman Brothers collapse. But for now, I will gladly just rid unfortunate investors of their unwanted shares.
Did the FBI ever get a copy of that investigation report?
The tide is turning.
The ebb has passed and now come the flows.
Math question --
If JP Morgan settled for less than 7c (.06875) on the dollar and after subtracting all of the duplicated/theoretical/fraudulent claims currently filed and adding back those undervalued assets and projecting their value in a liquid market, how much would to pay off all the claims and how much would be left over and what would be the value in two years?? --- theoretically???
Now these ARE some strong hands!!
The plaintiffs, including the Alameda County Employees’ Retirement Association and the City of Edinburgh Council, said they may seek access to redacted information and documents in the report, if it is published in censored form.
Yes, it looks like more investors want to set up shop. They're going for the big fish and leaving the small 'tomatoes' for us. Are we forming a bullish flag on the capital trust charts?
Here is a possibility. If the trust gets a portion of equity in the BK, the trust could form a separate holding company to be traded under a new symbol thereby allowing investors to trade their shares or wait for the values to go up over time, the time and price equation.
re:
As for that Fanny claim, if it's a $250 million claim, being written as $32 billion, along with the settlement with JP, there's the difference of a A vs L right there.
Looks that way. In this case, Fanny (and the taxpayers) would take the loss through the back door but pension funds and government retirees funds, if they are still holding any Lehman paper would see some or all of the investment returned, right?
If they can leverage the assets or cash on hand to get back in business, we will be needing a much bigger piggy bank to put all our little deposits in.
Doesn't this lower liabilities by $32 billion... 2-Mar-10
If DB has set up shop buying claims, it is surely at a big discount. Therefore, lowering the total of most of the bogus filings and giving the party a way out instead of 'going all the way' and trying to get what they were claiming. DB can act as judge outside the court room and save a party from fraudulently asking for something they did not legally have claim to. Am I right?
Thank you!!!! LET's ALL GET PAID BABY!!!!!!
I would be happy with just collecting the interest for now and waiting until the market recovers rather than taking much less than face value.
Defensive bankruptcy
The implosion of General Growth Properties is a highly choreographed, and controversial, phenomenon
Complicated but could it be they were also sheltering their assets as individual entities in case one of them failed thereby limiting their liability?
re: 150+ Year old Companies have ASSETS and CASH buried Everywhere!
Especially if they were 'acquired' 100+ years ago. Things tend to go up in value over that amount of time, you know?
re: LBI SIPA Docket #2676 there is an affidavit about LBI finding $532M for the Woodlands Account. If I read this correctly, this money will go to Woodlands Bank directly form LBI.
Sounds like 'another' deposit in our little piggy bank, CLINK!! lol
About three minutes into this part of the interview, Lehman gets covered up very quickly. Neither person sounds very certain of what they are saying or "should be' saying publicly.
"Also, trade vendors and other creditors are sometimes so desperate to exchange their claim for cash to keep their businesses running, that they will accept deep discounts on the claim's full value from potential investors."
This is the case of our Lehman shares today, we buy (for pennies on the dollar) from the bag holders to let them go on with their lives. Also, if an equity committee IS appointed, it increases the possibility of an equity interest remaining after/and/or emergence from bankruptcy.
During the interview between Warren Buffett and Henry Paulson, both were stumbling over their own words and quickly changed the subject when Lehman Brothers became the topic. What were THEY thinking that made them so nervous? Did they know it was a mistake to deny Lehman funds during a liquidity crisis in which Tim Geithner subsequently suggested an "EMERGENCY LIQUIDATION" of its' assets? The timing couldn't have been worse.