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Great article - Taking away some of rather personally numbers (20%/50%), this is one of the best articles on the topics for a long time.
I personally am not crazy about the use of the term fraud, since it is misused and has been abused by people with ulterior motives.
I would rather think that all my current and potential investments have risks and my decisions are what risk premiums I would demand before I feel comfortable investing. To me, making investment decisions are about shades of grey, not black and white.
Rick - it is great that you take the chance to visit companies. Be sure to share some of your observations here.
F-word, the famous F-words. This board is dominated by the discussion of F-word again.
I guess the topic keeps people entertained when the stock PPS is moving sideways.
It almost becomes standard operation procedure that a new person (I should say new alias) comes in, claiming investing significant portion of his/her portfolio in CCME, then starts asking negative questions repeatedly, and constantly.
Come on guys, if a person is not convinced that CCME is a legit, and still invests a big chuck of his/her money in CCME, the only thing we should do is to ask this person to sell the stock and use the proceed for 1-900-psych-help.
PS. I have respect for people taking long or short positions, but zero respect for those claiming to be long but obviously not judging from the posting.
China Lights, Global Floods, Australian Coal
Interesting reading. Talking about Chinese coal. Relevant to LLEN.
http://seekingalpha.com/article/244921-china-lights-global-floods-australian-coal?source=dashboard_global-investing
Happy New Year.
Wish everyone (except the shorts) a happy and prosperous new year.
Happy Trading.
LLEN - 10.84, _0.72 or 7.11%
Up three days in a row.
CELM - Thanks for the estimates.
Two questions
1) Capacity - Almost double. Will any ramp up in production before full operations needed for 2011? If so, it may reduce the estimates a little.
2) Are those new capacity sold?
Interesting - By coincidence, Mike Koza holds much of the same stocks (CCME,UTA,CHBT,HRBN) I had about 2 months ago, and in some way resemble a target list of past short attackers. His holding:
SYMBOL NAME PRICE SHARES VALUE % FUND
CCME China MediaExpress Holdings, Inc. 15.69 160,000 $2,510,400 16.59%
UTA UNIVERSAL TRAVEL GROUP 6.16 171,744 $1,058,630 7.00%
XIN Xinyuan Real Estate Limited Sponsored American Deposit Receipt Represent 2 Shs 2.39 410,000 $979,900 6.48%
CHBT China-Biotics Incorporated 14.70 54,967 $808,015 5.34%
HRBN Harbin Electric Incorporated 17.26 45,165 $779,548 5.15%
Total $6,136,493 40.55%
CELM - does anyone have its earning and OS estimates for 2011?
LLEN - Real time 10.73, +0.61 or 6%
CHGY/SCOK/SCEI/PUDA all registered gains.
Coal and oil Chinese stocks are up 2.3% today as a group.
http://www.chinaplus1.com/content/16256
CHGS - Amazing run. Pre-market up again. My new year wish is that CHGS's run will come to other Chinese stocks such as CCME the China Mining Express?
Rato - you may need to call top fourth time today. Maybe at fifth time you will be get your crystal ball. LOL.
"CHGS - ...
I'm calling it (for the third time lol): the top is definitely in for all these junk names."
LLEN, Dave Gentry of Redchip will be on CNBC next Monday. Last time he was there, LLEN ran from 8 to 12.
LLEN - Bought some Jan 12.5 call contracts.
Gaming play. The impact by the shorts should be over now. Gentry would be on CNBC next week. Chinese mining is red hot now, and it would spill over to coal and other mines.
LLEN/PUDA/CHGY
Finally I figure out the reason why LLEN and PUDA are up nieely today. Even CHGY turns green in spite of heavy tax selling lately.
Basically the flood halts Australia's coal output, resulting a reduction of output in large scale. China, as the largest consumer and importer of coals, will certainly be impacted by the news big time.
Here is the news:
http://www.smh.com.au/business/floods-bring-queensland-coal-sector-to-a-halt-20101230-19b42.html
"Floods bring Queensland coal sector to a halt
Eli Greenblat
December 31, 2010
AUSTRALIA'S $50 billion coal industry may miss large export contracts as a result of flooding in central Queensland.
Wesfarmers yesterday added its name to the list of coal producers that have suspended operations as the floods created the worst conditions in 50 years."
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052970204304204576050943912616066.html
"SYDNEY—Torrential rains across Australia's Queensland state are inundating mines responsible for nearly a quarter of the country's coal production and threatening to strand tens of thousands of people...."
Other:
http://af.reuters.com/article/energyOilNews/idAFL3E6NU02420101230
LLEN/PUDA/CHGY
Finally I figure out the reason why LLEN and PUDA are up nieely today. Even CHGY turns green in spite of heavy tax selling lately.
Basically the flood halts Australia's coal output, resulting a reduction of output in large scale. China, as the largest consumer and importer of coals, will certainly be impacted by the news big time.
Here is the news:
http://www.smh.com.au/business/floods-bring-queensland-coal-sector-to-a-halt-20101230-19b42.html
"Floods bring Queensland coal sector to a halt
Eli Greenblat
December 31, 2010
AUSTRALIA'S $50 billion coal industry may miss large export contracts as a result of flooding in central Queensland.
Wesfarmers yesterday added its name to the list of coal producers that have suspended operations as the floods created the worst conditions in 50 years."
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052970204304204576050943912616066.html
"SYDNEY—Torrential rains across Australia's Queensland state are inundating mines responsible for nearly a quarter of the country's coal production and threatening to strand tens of thousands of people...."
Other:
http://af.reuters.com/article/energyOilNews/idAFL3E6NU02420101230
LLEN - Bought some Jan 12.5 call contracts.
Gaming play. The impact by the shorts should be over now. Gentry would be on CNBC next week. Chinese mining is red hot now, and it would spill over to coal and other mines.
CHGS 5.20. up 98%
Just wondering who bought shares yesterday? It would be a spectacular trades.
Chinese sector
... is red hot now. Ironically it is purely due to mining companies such as XING, SHZ, and CHGS.
Yesterday USChina Index (tracking 215 companies on big boards) increased 3.3%, the best performance of 2010.
I think we on this board are having a skewed view of things. Many start shorting as soon as some tickers print a PE barely above 5?
Whoever shorted CHGS yesterday is at a 70% loss this morning pre-market. I wish I can say the same about CCME and other boards favorites.
CHGS 3.54 Crazy? Try 4.64. That is whats printing Pre-market as of 8:59am.
I would not short CHGS or XING/SHZ. They are still cheap by many metrics and I do not know when the momo stops.
CCME - Traderfan, reading through your article, you certainly have a polite way to say that shorts know some that we do not.
"there is no reason out there except that they don't believe the numbers."
Even although I am long (I am very long for my portfolio after accumulation over the last 3 weeks,) I can name many, many other reasons for short to be shorting.
The first group of reasons are about macro-environment: SSE was down over the last months; rate hikes in China; Continuing Euro debt crisis, etc. All those put pressure on Chinese stocks, including CCME.
The second group of reasons are purely technical. If you study CCME's chart over last 12 months, it is a very bad stock for longs and great stock for shorts. Excluding one 5-week period in September/November, CCME is either trading sideway, or downward after any pops.
None of the listed and unlisted reasons scares me as a long. In a way, I am happy to have those shorts here and it gives me chance to accumulate shares again at very reasonable price.
Stock down - Wow, what a long list with 50% or more off. Shows how difficult the sector is.
Waldo Mushman
I am wondering how low can street.com or CNBC go on attacking Chinese stocks.
Criticizing Chinese RTOs is one thing, but glorifying Waldo Mushman? This is low to me. If the author really like Waldo, he can go to YMB and enjoying all the white noise Waldo contributes to YMB hourly.
SSE vs. Copper index.
WOW, interesting chart. Time for SSE to catch up?
Option strategies on Chinese stocks - Thanks
I just want to say my thanks for the good discussions on option strategies by Fernando and Researcher59.
One of the most interesting and fascinating aspects of trading US listed small caps: The stocks are dirty cheap but options are outrageously expensive. While it is possible to make money in uptrend, it is also possible to make money in a sideway market by playing the time value and volatility on options.
Discussions like this enriches the board.
Happy option trading.
HRBN options
Good strategy. It is difficult to image HRBN is below 14.6 at the time. Something will be seriously wrong in the pending offer of $24
The only downside I can see: If the deal proceeds (lets say 25% chance it happens before 3rd Friday of Jan), the upside is limited to 19%, while a pure call option would gain a lot more.
CHBT - I sold my Dec 12.5 options way too early (two days ago.) The stock is looking very good now.
CCME - agree with your statement on the CCME taking private the stock could still go down.
Actually, it could go down more, since now people "have proof" that they are afraid of public scrutiny.
Just look what happened to HRBN. .
CCME - my friend, that "shake out strategy" you are referring to is called "shorting". Simple and easier than you can image.
All the proof you need: just watching the dumpage on the bids, 100 shares at a time, for much of the day today.
This simple strategy works because there are enough weak longs and traders jumping on and off the wagon to help kill every upward movement on this stock over the last 12 months - every time except for one magic month ending Nov 8.
"In other words, this is a quite deliberate, utterly determined SHAKE-OUT STRATEGY of massive proportions, rarely seen. "
CCME - there are always ways to bitch about CCME, or many of the Chinese small caps for that matter. If the management does not buy, its a fraud. If they buy, its another type of fraud. If the management sells, it is ...
There are only 365 days per year in the calendar. The company has put out a string of good news over such a short period: NASDAQ uplist, fantastic quarterly reports every three months, buy back announcement, new inter-city buses every few weeks, new airport buses almost every month, and now the dividend policy.
When a super-audited company has this much good news, I am wondering when it is a good time for insiders to buy without being accused of using inside information? I guess the people would be happier if an insider sells.
CKGT - Wonder if this means that CKGT will sell its tabacco plant purchased not too long ago.
"China Kangtai Cactus Signs Manufacturing Agreement with Shandong Tobacco Company"
China's growth - This is indeed a good read. Thanks for sharing.
The author may add the world's longest high speed rails and expansive free ways as support evidence. I am amazing how quickly the high speed rails are being built. Not to mention the number of bridges pop up over Yangtze river.
Whether the growth is 5% or 10% really does not matter to me, they are impressive either way. Anyone who traveled to China from time to time can see the tremendous using simple "eye inspection."
I would treat all pre-market purchases above prior close as a "buy". LOL.
"proably a stupid question, but always wondered if it's possible to see if a trade is a buy or a sell."
Alibaba to pay $140 million special dividend
Talking about Dividend. This is one you would like.
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Alibaba-to-pay-140-million-rb-1987322566.html?x=0&.v=1
CCME - Heart broken ~_^.
I put some orders slightly below 14 and went to see a doctor, and came back one hour later to see CCME run to 15.80 (from 14.18).
Damn. Another missed opportunity.
Note to Jacky - Can you please alert me first when you sell your other kidney to buy more CCME shares?
Burp - You made some good calls lately on the bottom of many stocks.
Just wonder which tools are you using to decide a PPS reaches its bottom?
Internet companies and "X of China".
True, to reach out to US investors, some companies may have used " X of China", but Chinese internet content and commerce companies are very innovative and fast moving. They have proved themselves time after time and are able to beat well financed international competitors there.
China's top 3 internet companies are Tencent, Alibaba, and Baidu. Each companies dominate in their space. Tencent's 600m users make it largest social networking platform in the world. Alibaba is the world's large B2B company. Its C2C site, taobao, has dismantled ebay in China, and successfully reduced eBay's market share from 90% to 0%. Baidu kicked Google's ass in China.
They are not the only companies that thrive in China. Big three portal sites (SINA, Sohu, and Netease) are well trenched, CTrip (travel site) is growing fast, 51jobs are very profitable. Tudou and Youku are actually very unique and are kind of hybrids between Youtube, Hulu, and Netflix.
CEU and Wall Street Ratings.
Barely a month ago, when CEU was trading around $5.2, Rodman recommended the stock as an "outperform", a buy with a price target of $9.
Today, the stock was trading at half of the price ($2.6) when Rodman came out with an update. I was thinking that Rodman should upgrade the rating to something like "super duper outperform". I was therefore surprised when I learned Rodman withdrew its recommendation, and downgrade the stock to "under review".
So buy high and sell low? It can definitely help you move away from your dream of early retirement.
Coupled with Redchip's LPH report today, I suddenly figured out the secret sauce for Wall Street and Off Street analysts and I am in process of patenting the following discovery:
Stock Rating = xfactor *times* PPS + coin flop. (++)
++: This formula is protected by US and China patent laws.
++2: I am working on an automation software for use by analysts based on this formula. Per popular request, the software can automatically generate reasons for upgrade and downgrade. It pre-populates reports with useful paragraphs such as "I forgot to read the company's 10Q in my last rating", or "I was drunk when I was site visiting and did not notice any empty buildings/empty factories".
+++ The classic excuses such as "dog ate my homework" are included in the software free of charge.
OT - Never understand how a stock can go up 7000% in two days. You mean if I had "invested" USD $1500 in the stock two days ago, I would be a millionaire today and could retire comfortably to a third world country like North Korea.
PS. It used to be that a US millionaire can live comfortably anywhere in China for life. Now you could barely afford a nice 2 bedroom condo in downtown Shanghai.