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Could someone comment the balance sheet as I'm not very sure to understand everything. For example what means "account receivable" and in the 58'666 shares do they include the options ? Thanks for help.
Oops, I forgot to say what ddutta have perfectly explained, that you can, of course, hold your shares if you exercise. But your cost price will remain $27.70 and you'll have to wait if the sgares go down.
Sjratty, at this point, I consider buying May $27.50 calls is like gambling in the casino. With the tension that exist among all the investors before the CC, you can bet that there will be emotional movements in the very short term. And nobody knows which direction. It's up to you. If you can accept to loose $800.00 buying 40 calls (if we go down), then of course you could make more money than with shares if the market is satisfied with the CC. Mickey's numbers are totaly right.
postyle, thanks.
mschere, am I right if I consider that the 34Mo of Ericsson through December 31 2002 can't be counted in the real revenue of Q1 ? So what would be the real revenue of Q1 without these 34Mo ?
My Dime, or anyone else, what does mean OT in the beginning of your posts ?
Broken, a lot of us are hoping news next week. Don't you think that recently we have been fucusing too much on this CC and that it has become the "now or never" case ? I've read again the Halpern's report and Marsala is much more patient, for the Nok/Samsung deal for example:
Nokia and Samsung might not reach agreement. There is no assurance that either Nokia or Samsung will agree with
IDCC as to the applicability of the licensing terms between IDCC and Ericsson and Sony Ericsson. The MFL terms
include provisions for a period of review, negotiation, and dispute resolution with regard to the determination of royalty
obligations of Nokia and Samsung and so we believe these will not be matters that will require litigation and/or arbitration
to complete. We have in included our estimate of the Nokia and Samsung revenues and cash flows in our forecast for the
second half of 2003.
I'm much more nervous about the dilution.
You guys are very lucky and you don't know it ! I live in Spain and therefore count in euros. Since 2 years, I've lost almost 25% because the $ is down. I intented to protect me selling or buying it against the € but Ive been wrong each time. So I'm very thankfull to IDCC to let me make money with a weak $. And I hope even more than everybody that finally we will see our efforts successfull !
But I remember a story that happened to me 4 years ago. A friend of mine told me about a stock, Ortel, which had a big potential (that remember me another one). I bought 10'000 shares at 6$ and 3 months later sold half of them at 15$ and a month later sold the rest at 22$. Not bad at all. One year later it had reached 200$ !!! Even if you consider that it was the Tech bubble and that Ortel were bought by Nortel finally, 2 things that can't help today IDCC's price, I think that with 12'500 shares of IDCC, I'll wait and not sell before the real money comes. Even if the management is not very clear, but in their field I think they can't tell everything to everybody, and that we would like the future more evident, I'm OK to wait more.
Once, do you own IDCC shares ?
I'm wondering if most of people here on this board are not too obsessed by next tuesday's presentation. If the management doesn't give us any news about Nok/Samsung or any new licensee, and I say if because maybe they will (they can't and won't invent any just for the CC if nothing has happened yet), they perfectly can do it within a week or a month. Why just the 13th of may ? It wouldn't be a disaster even if the price share pulls back. Unless we don't believe any more in the future of IDCC, we know all the events we are waiting for will happen.
Now, we although know the risks inherent to this stock. But I think it will be soon enough to care when the bad news are published (hopefully never). We were at 14$ in january, we are at 24$ today, if bad news come, even selling in a hurry (which I won't do), we will still earn money.
JMO.
2'009 jan05 30$ calls today. Although 670 may 27.5$ and 370 june 30$ calls among many others. If all these calls are bought, very good sign. Let's see tomorow the open interest.
Broken,
Well, we didn't stay above 24$. But we have been adding half a dollar each day since more than a week which isn't bad at all, isn't it ? For me, it's going to fast. I prefer when the stock add 1 or 2 $ each month, that let you more time to deal with options. But if we cannot avoid earning money, let's do it !
Anyway, when I think that we can perfectly be at 30$ (I'm rather conservative than too optimist) when/if IDCC announces the Nok/Samsung agreement or a 3G agreement with Ericsson, and that that can happen in one day, sometimes I'm very tempted to sell puts in the money. Maybe one day, I will use the premiums to take a little more risk. E.g. sell 25$ dec puts.
BTW, and you, where are you from ?
JMR
Broken, as I'm not a member yet, I must use the public reply. Sorry not to be able to use the private one.
I'm from Switzerland, Geneva, but living in Spain, near Alicante.
When I sell puts, I intend to have a cost price near 18$ (if I sell a Sept 20$ put for 2$ for example), so, even if we have a pull back if Nok doesn't want to pay or for some other reason IDCC is used to, I have time to buy back without any loss or wait the shares to be put to me.
I have sold actually 170 (puts) May, June, Sept and jan05. Like you. And I'm thinking to sell more June 20$ and Sept 22.5$ after the results of Q1. To sell 25$ puts or to a higher strike price, I prefer to let the management have time to build a solid stream of revenue, that means until next year. It seems to me too much risk to sell higher than 25 now.
People here say : "mas vale un pajaro en la mano que ciento volando" which means better to have a bird in the hand than hundred in the sky.
He must have invented that one after a good bottle of wine !
Very good one !
Sorry for the "sayed", I posted to fast. "Said" is much better !
Broken80,
In your post you sayed that if the shares are put to you, then you sell calls. Can you explain what is your strategy and when you sell the calls.
Let's take the following example. You sold 25$ puts on may at a price of 2.50$. If on may 16th the shares are at 24$, they put them to you. Would you then sell 22.50$ or 25$ calls but on june. Am I right ?
BTW I've just sold Jan05 25$ puts. That way, I conserve my shares, avoiding the risk of trading, and I make money with the options.
Nieves, thanks for the link.
To all :
Where can I see IDCC's licencees on their site ? Thanks to help.
Can someone please give me the link in Interdigital's site for the licencees ? Thanks.
Broken, I agree with you. It's a good way or to buy stock at better prices or to keep the premiums. I've been selling puts since a year with success too. The only time I had to buy back with a little loss were when the Ericsson trial date were postponed and the stock felt. When you don't have the good timing, you may have problems. I very rarely buy calls as I think you buy wind.
Even if you don't like to sell puts more than 3 months away, I think the 25$ january 05 puts are a great sell. If they put it to you, you can buy at 16.50. In the contrary, you keep the 8.5$ per share ! At what price do you think we will be at that time ?
Teecee, I've been selling puts and making money since last year. Someone must have bought them. Of course there are shorts using options. And I'm always astonished that people buy in the money with a strike 2 or 3 bucks lower than the share price. But does that have any effect on the share price ? I doubt it.
Mschere, very clear and helpful. Thanks. I should have read your post before posting my last one.
Clarence, thanks.
The point is : what means "essential" ? If a technology is essential, that means for me that manufacturers must use it to do phones, that they don't have choice.
Now, if different systems can do the same job, do IDCC own technology that is essential for all of them ?
Very clear !
Teecee, what do you mean by "wrong" ? That Marsala didn't say that or that it's wrong that IDCC's technology is complimentary to QCOM's ?
What happened with the indemnification we were told about ? I've just read the Halpern Capital report and Marsala doesn't mention it. Is the case over ?
Can someone clarify ? Thanks.
JMR
Dishfan, thank you for the link. Meanwhile, I've tried OptionsXpress. Not bad at all and easier to read.
Postyle, I can't use the link you gave me : The access is forbidden for me. Do you know another free link for options ?
Postyle, thanks.
Loop, can you tell me what is a leap please. A kind of option ? And where does it trade ? I use to play options but I've never heard of LEAPS.
What's a LEAP ? An option ?
Random,
What does mean "indemnification" ? From what I red, Qcom did that. What do they want and what are the risks for IDCC ?
I thought we had 3G patents for all type of 3G technology. Isn't it true ?
Thanks for your comments.
To all: there have been a lot of sellers who had bought speculating too much. And the price has gone 4$ down as he went up from 20$ to 24$. But why do you think all the buyers are buying ? They must have very good reasons too, and sure they were waiting for that moment.
I think that nothing has changed, the fundamentals are the same and Nok and Samsung have to pay and will pay as well as all the others. And they will pay for 2G as well as for 3G when they will have licenced. We have to let the management actuate and not to be so impatient.
Personnaly I didn't sell when the share price was 19.5 in december and nither now. If you are long, don't be too nervous for a situation we already have known before.
It's a pity to see that all the people, who are explaining so well the fundamentals of IDCC posting here and who convinced me to buy from 1999 to 2002, are so rapidly desapointed and negative. We were at 5$ about a year ago ! Now 19$ and within a year probably higher. Those who are hoping too much are the most desapointed.
Teecee, thanks.
Now tell me if I'm right :
From what I've seen in the post 13389 from Data (thanks to him), for ERICY, 34Mo are for 2002 and only 24Mo for 2003 and 2004 (prepayment), that are 12 Mo each year. Plus 6Mo each year for infrastructure equipment, that is together 18Mo for 2003. Right ? If I sum that to 90Mo estimated from Nok and 24Mo from Samsung (royalty revenue estimated), that are 132Mo for 2003.
Can we consider that those 132Mo are going to make each quarterly net income from 2003 33Mo higher than those of 2002 if the expenses are the same ?
That means an EPS higher of 2.3 $ in 2003. Or a share price of between 54 (x20) and 69 (x30).
Thank you to comment.
Anyone can post how many cash IDCC has now (end 2002) ?
Thanks.
IDCC Cash end of 2001 : 90.4 Mo for what i've seen.
What is the cash at the end of 2002 ? Someone can help ?
This board is becoming like the old RB : more and more people who don't care about sharing information or ideas, but who try to manipulate.
I definitely prefered the old Jim Lurgio's board where not any one could post and where I didn't waste so much time finding the interesting posts.
By the way, why doesn't post ALLEY here ? I miss his point of view.