Register for free to join our community of investors and share your ideas. You will also get access to streaming quotes, interactive charts, trades, portfolio, live options flow and more tools.
Register for free to join our community of investors and share your ideas. You will also get access to streaming quotes, interactive charts, trades, portfolio, live options flow and more tools.
The court has already ruled. Where have you been?
The next step is a vote for or against the submitted POR.
It's funny how you can go from a 676 million valuation at the begining of April, to 260 million per the POR, especially since half of that time the company was profitable.
http://msnmoney.brand.edgar-online.com/DisplayFilingInfo.aspx?TabIndex=2&FilingID=6594212&type=html&companyid=628888&ppu=%2FDefault.aspx%3Fticker%3DAVRNQ
The way I look at it, even if we only get warrants, the MINIMUM value of this stock is .25, using a 580 million book value. Other than the 100 million or so to finish the plants and exit bankruptcy, the company should be debt free.
If the stock trades at 1.5 of book, like all of the other public ethanol companies, then you get .55 a share.
The upside here is, the plan getting rejected. Then it's another cemjq, or even pgpdq.
Just the usual panic from small holders. Not everybody has the patience or stomach for this.
PEIX is a rocket! Hopefully AVRNQ will become one on Thursday! :)
Pacific Ethanol soared today! Since they are also in bankruptcy, It made me wonder who their judge is.
Take a look.
http://www.pacificethanol.net/site/index.php/reorganization/case_information/
This is VERY GOOD news IMO, since there are similarities in the two cases.
Looks like there are a few clowns using scare tactics on the Yahoo board, trying to pick up cheaper shares. LOL
This stock has been manipulated for so long, why would they stop now?
I'm curious as to why people fall for the same tricks day after day, month after month.
Peix is also in bankruptcy, had to shut down plants, and has never made a true profit. Market cap of ~48 mill.
Their shares could be wiped out tomorrow.
Avrnq is at least getting warrants, yet trades at a ~12 mill market cap.
Something to think about.
I'm amazed they have been able to walk it down this low. A 12 million market cap on a stock like this is unreal. Other BK stocks with no potential trade for substantially more that Avrnq.
At these prices, I think I Might just go bottom fishing myself.
Nothing but panic selling here.
E-mail sent. This is looking better by the day BTW.
Very interesting.
It looks like this might sell in the .5X range occasionally dipping in to the .40's for the next month, since there is a definate minimum value now.
Not enough shorts for a short squeeze IMO.
I'm on my Iphone,so I can't look it up until tomorrow. Sorry
I just skimmed over the document, but I think it stated the warrants are not going to be traded until exercised.
I'm sure that the judge won't sign off on this right away, there will be negotiations.
Im pretty sure after they expire, they are void.
If thats the case then I doubt there will be a dip.
Another thing I forgot to add, warrants are usually given along with preffered stock purchases or bonds for free, especially ones that expire. Unless this judge is really bias(not in favor of common stockholders), he will definately give more to the current stockholders.
The POR's offer to the common stockholders of Avrnq(which still has more assets than liabilities) is really just a slap in the face. You have to remember that there probably are some stock holders who bought this for double digit prices.
I agree. I'm curious to see what it trades at tomorrow. The manipulation may continue, or the stock may skyrocket.
Either way I have decided to hold my shares until the judge decides on the POR, just because there is a very good chance we will get way more that the 5% warrants.
If oil prices don't fall much below $80/barrel, and corn doesn't go way up, I expect AVE to be somewhere in the $90-$100 a share range. That more than doubles the warrant value if the judge decides to agree with the POR. Couple this with the 15% ethanol mandate expected in May/June, and it's not hard to see that selling now may not be the most profitable.
The price next week depends on how quickly the news spreads about the POR.
All of the other ethanol stocks were up because of the EPA news except for this one. This had alot to do with the Q on the end.
I won't even think about selling under a dollar, because the near term for ethanol looks pretty good. Who knows, the judge might even up the value we receive.
BTW The next hearing is January 13th.
Decent assesment, although it is very basic.
I have a feeling that monday's opening price is going to be a bit higher than the .59 he mentions, and only go higher from there. IMHO
It looks like we get warrants for 5% of the new stock. There will be just over 8.5 million new shares issued. This is assuming the judge's approval of course.
Not as much as I was hoping for, considering Aventine owns about half of the old shares.
The POR is out! Monday is going to be interesting.
I didn't even try for any .41's because I figured there wouldn't be any volume traded at that price. Gulped up a bunch of shares at a .44 avg though. I was really surprised at how many shares were available today, compared to previous days.
What a day to accumulate. Might even dip to .41.
I was shocked I got a call, that has never happened before in years of trading. I think our .4X price range is over now.
No relation unfortunately. What's funny is, I had a large order in yesterday for .47, and had 180k shares traded around me. Needless to say, I wasn't happy. My broker called me this morning to ask if I wanted 300 shares that were available late yesterday(in addition to today's order). I said "hell yes".LOL
I love my broker. Just picked some up at .43.
I have more bids in below .47 (since 6 am). So far no luck.
I managed to gulp some of those at bid today, but it took a while. Looks like they scared some more shares out.
I tried to pick some up at .47 yesterday with no luck. I hate it when they trade around your order.
I put a large order in at .43 around noon to see if it would fill, and got 4k shares out of the deal(not all at once). It seems like the size of the order didn't matter today.
I think luck has everything to do with picking up shares at bid.
Yeah someone has been keeping this down since about may/june. I can't believe it has worked for so long. What is really sad, they keep using the same lame tactics.
Looks like their cheap accumulation is about over.
I can't believe how much this has climbed on low volume. I can't wait to see what happens when the volume shoots up. :)
Bid means nothing with this stock. Good luck getting fills at all let alone bid price.
When this one pops, it's going to triple in price IMHO, because it is so undervalued and has been held down for so long.
I have read and researched all of the market multiple valuation stuff on yahoo.
Another thing to remember is the EPA has until Dec. 1 to decide on the blend rate increase to 15%. If the blend rate goes up, ethanol stocks will most likely follow.
I have a feeling December is going to be a great month. The good thing is, the MM's will keep this down and filling up slowly will still be possible.
I picked a bunch up at .30 this morning. My orders at bid price(which also have been the low for the day) have all filled in the last week. I'm amazed.
Good day to pick some shares up.
I'm afraid you are right, they are selling to themselves. My small morning order for .30 took 1.5 hrs to fill, after watching 200,000 shares sell for .30.
Yeah, i picked up some at .30, and then I saw the bid was .29, so I put in an order for 8400 shares, and picked up 600. I'm very very surprised myself.