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CPI on Tuesday. SPX was 3 points from taking out the August high today (so far) My ideal scenario is making the 4326 or more by Monday close and see a hot CPI come in Tuesday. Then the Fed day on Wed
I believe the Treasury was conteracting the QT from the Fed, there was some FED QT going on, but the Treasury was using its general fund to buy the sold fed stuff.
JXYZ, So if I understand you, you're saying it's different this time?
Hi RCKS,
Last August that "A 20% advance represents a new bull market." went around and even AJ got suckered into it. I'm wondering if you followed Tom's commentary last August or if he didn't see the 20% gain of the August high and this is all new to Tom? In any case it didn't work last August and expecting the same results over again has some people wondering if Tom realizes the 20% rule has failures?
My thoughts on the market:
SPY took out last August high, but SPX didn't, when this happens SPX always follows through. I'm looking for a bit of a pull back Monday and then a new high later in the week with some negative divergence and SPX to take out the August high also.
Then down for a month below 390 then up for 6 weeks to another high before the big last drop.
https://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=SPY&p=60&yr=1&mn=4&dy=0&i=p81064549921&a=350704571&r=1685737637896&r=1685737925927
I've been sitting on a TZA position I just sold for a small gain to go with my last comment
QQQ is so extended already it's a difficult chart, however I have this IWM chart that I think has one more rally from here before going down. The debt bill will probably pass and today's down reset the indicators for another high (I think)
https://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=IWM&p=30&st=2022-07-01&i=p09621257268&a=434502557&r=1685548743326&r=1685548831994
I'm still clinging to a drop before taking out the August HFTOM highs. If my work is correct price needs to exceed the yellow down fork ML now at 390 in below chart. For the HFTOM, 4 of the 8 indices I include have taken out the August high and have a large spread among them with IWM being the lowest and still has not taken out the June of last year low.
https://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=SPY&p=60&yr=1&mn=4&dy=0&i=p81064549921&a=350704571&r=1685365729290&r=1685365883543
TDS, We know you're here to show everyone how smart you are and now that you think you're a master at posting charts I would like to add, Rick's chart is a futures chart and the 4382 August high on that chart translates to 4325 on the cash SPX August high, details are important.
Democrats depend on using everyones taxes to give out to their own for votes so this is very personal for them. Undoubtably you've been influenced by democrat controlled media (as you have with Trump and your TDS) and have read recent articles of how the S&P dropped 20% in 2011 due to the debt ceiling talks, however the drop occurred after the talks had finished and is just more grandstanding for the media.
Quote "The fact that we are here today to debate raising America’s debt limit is a sign of leadership failure. It is a sign that the U.S. government can’t pay its own bills. ... I therefore intend to oppose the effort to increase America’s debt limit.”--Barak Obama, March 16, 2006
Hi RCKS, I saw that, I'm looking (hoping) for RUT to take out last June's low before heading up, All the others have taken out that low.
https://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=IWM&p=60&st=2021-11-01&i=p22209884227&a=1361692571&r=1684431591318
IWM usually leads with QQQ, it's worse than SPY
https://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=IWM&p=30&st=2022-07-01&i=p32753900303&a=434502557&r=1684400758939&r=1684400875842
Guessing what will bring a drop is often difficult, but here it seems like a no brainer, the debt ceiling is in the window anyway, all we need is the forthcoming news that both parties have left the negotiating table. Then they make a deal on the last possible moment, even if it's a temporary funding one.
https://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=%24SPXEW&p=30&yr=0&mn=8&dy=0&i=t5304089555c&a=416724255&r=1684324900394&r=1684325021572
LOL, gdl needs to be changed to TDS. Hitler made the jews the enemy of the people, democrats are one up and are doing it to their political opponents and brainwashing their followers. White Supremacy? Wasn't it Biden that refered to black children as "roaches" in a recent youtube? Wasn't his mentor Byrd a KKK leader? Ewe parrot what you say are facts long after they have been proven lies. Saul Alinsky's book on Rules for Radicals is a democrat requirement, Hillary even wrote her college thesis on the man. It was no "coincidence" the pandemic appeared at the opportune moment to influence the election, democrats have made Hitler look like an amateur.
JLS< Could you find out why the August high (up more than 20%) didn't end the bear so we could have avoided the drop into October?
JLS,
Futures open at 6:00, it seems you checked before the open and were viewing Fridays data.
What proof is there that democRATS released the pandemic to win an election?
There was 0% chance of winning the WH as of 2018.
It is proven fauci and democRATS funded the creation of it,
They had access to it
Motive to release it
How did they do it?
DemocRATS bumping off Epstein while in a maximum security prison showed they are capable, there probably was more than 10 people involved in carrying it out, not including Hillary and anyone else making the hit call. (It's so obvious why Hillary used a private server and then bit bleached and took a hammer to the hard drives, there was evidence of the fake Russian collusion, the many plans of inciting riots, releasing the pandemic and probably would fill ten full size books to list.)
The two regular guards were substituted by criminals, two + superior to make the change.
The security cameras were shut down, at least one, maybe two or three.
Keeping the corridors clear while it was going on, two or three.
Two or three to actually do it, they had to be careful to not make too many bruises.
And of course the coroner that ruled it a suicide against all evidence.
(the hyoid bone was broken and is a sure sign of strangulation, experts say the position Epstein was found would not be possible to do yourself in)
Now for releasing the pandemic, all that would be required is one hit man and one Chinese worker with a family that had access. The hit man tells the worker he must infect himself and then spend the day wandering the crowds at the Wuhan market if he doesn't want every family member including the dog to be killed. The worker that did it was probably bumped off afterwards as a loose end then.
The DemocRats have shown they have no regard for either human life or the good of America by their actions, open border knowing the gullible uneducated flooding in will be a perfect fit to their base. Instigating race wars and inciting riots knowing their media control will spin things their way. Dropping off pallets of bricks to likely riot hotspots to maximize damage. Two full books could be written with evidence of all that took place. The election fraud evidence, One video of Republicans being forced out of a poll location and paper taped over the windows to conceal their cheating. The evidence of the mules moving the fake ballots, two more full length hardcover books would barely be able to list all. The courts refused to hear it as they thought it would be better to let it fly than risk a civil war.
Here's my SPX 30, price is back inside the big blue up fork, yet the smaller purple fork was what we were looking more closely at and price has retested the bottom at this point and if it fails and drops again it will be a good sign of more down.
There's guidelines for Andrews forks that are what I would call "old school" which says a fork rejection isn't confirmed until a line drawn from the origin anchore passing thru the secondary anchor and continued is breached, but that is far too far and vague for me.
https://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=%24SPX&p=30&yr=0&mn=7&dy=0&i=t6530366319c&a=307755350&m=o&r=1683298409523&r=1683298533020
We're still within the blue up fork on the SPX 30 chart below, we need to trash that up move before I'm right. We can talk about the "old school" then.
https://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=%24SPX&p=30&yr=0&mn=7&dy=0&i=p31500440945&a=307755350&r=1683049591011
The idiot you voted for in the WH has been selling classified intel to our enemies for decades
while the party released a world wide pandemic to win an election and you're regurgitating the two fake impeachments and some tourists with American flags being escorted around Congress. The gullible are destroying America.
The worst case of TDS ever recorded, the golden Orange GOD lives in your head 24/7 bouncing golf balls off that empty skull all day long. Get a life and quit being a democrat stooge, they'll never miss you.
Two impeachments, the first, Russian collusion was proven to be started by Clintons and the first example in a long list of election cheating. The second for trying to reopen the investigation on biden's selling of classified documents and political favors.
Democrats have lowered the bar to floor level for every third world regime, brainwashing their gullible followers against their political opponents, even killing Epstein before he exposed the many pedophile democrats that traveled to his island, heck they even had the coroner against all the evidence rule it a suicide. I guess the coroner didn't want his entire family and even the family dog bumped off. Democrats have shown the world just how gullible half our population is, you being the poster child. It was no "coincidence" the pandemic emerged at the perfect moment exactly a year before the election.
I had to laugh seeing you gave yourself a thumbs up in one of your recent comments.
Was covid "accidentally" released?
The facts:
In 2018 democrats had 0% chance of the 2020 election without a huge economic or other catastrophe. All economic catastrophe always ends with a change of parties in the WH.
Proven fauci and the democrats funded the creation.
Had access
had motive
Democrats were the only ones in world to profit from the pandemic.
Follow the money detective theory shows the culprit.
The # deaths resulting puts democrats as worst terrorists in history.
Saturday is politics day?
Democrats Are The Nigerian Princes Of American Politics
By Vince Coyner
According to the American Heritage dictionary, this is the definition of “Stupid”:
1. Slow to learn or understand; obtuse.
2. Tending to make poor decisions or careless mistakes.
3. Marked by a lack of intelligence or care; foolish or careless.
That applies to a lot of Americans…Democrat voters in general and, in particular, a majority of blacks, college students, and white college-educated women.
Notice I said Democrat voters, not Democrat politicians. Democrat politicians may be many things, hypocrites, liars, traitors and more, but they’re not stupid as defined above. Why? Because they do exactly what they need to do to win and gain power and fortune.
There’s perhaps no better example than Joe Biden. The man is a congenital liar. Plagiarism has been a problem since he was in college and was actually the reason he withdrew from his first presidential campaign. Indeed, Biden is a lying machine! He claimed to have gone to college on a full scholarship, earned three degrees, and graduated in the top of his class. All lies.
Biden’s career of lies only became more consequential and destructive when he ran for president in 2020. Every campaign is full of hyperbole like “I’m going to cut taxes” or “I’ll be the education president.” But with Biden, the lies went far beyond white lies. He told the American people that his son Hunter’s laptop was Russian propaganda and that he never discussed business with his son. Perhaps most depressingly of all, once he became president, he went on TV and told the country that “White supremacists” are the most dangerous threat to the nation. All lies.
But Joe Biden is not stupid, although even before dementia began to set in, he probably wouldn’t have qualified for Mensa. He may never have been the brightest bulb, but he was and is crazy like a fox when it comes to accumulating money and power.
Not that there’s anything wrong with accumulating money and power. Most Americans would like to be financially secure and have the power to improve the lives of those around them and perhaps beyond. But there’s a difference between grifting for a living and doing an honest day’s work.
The question, then, is how does one guy of marginal intelligence get “elected” to the most powerful job in the world? Easy! Democrat operatives are the Nigerian Princes of American politics.
We’re all familiar with the Nigerian Prince schemes. You get an email telling you that some prince has millions of dollars tied up in an American bank, but he can’t get the money without paying some fee or tax, which, because of some visa application hiccup, he can’t pay. However, if you’ll just pay the $10,000 tax for him, he can get their money and will send you millions. Seems legit….
Hat image from the Federal Republic of Nigeria (CC BY-SA 4.0); Biden image from the public domain.
Any normal person would read the email, often filled with misspellings and outlandish claims, and delete it as an obvious scam. But there are a certain number of people who will take the bait and don’t quite figure out that it’s a scam until their bank accounts are empty.
But here’s the thing, those misspellings, grammatical mistakes, and outlandish claims aren’t a bug, they’re a feature! The whole point of the exercise isn’t to garner responses from millions of people who will do even a minimal amount of due diligence and discover the obvious fraud. That would waste the culprit’s time and make the whole endeavor too time-consuming to be profitable.
No, they make the email and the claims so obviously ludicrous that the only people who respond are those sufficiently gullible to end up forking over tens of thousands of dollars. The victims of these schemes may be rather dim, but the thieves are anything but. They’re highly sophisticated in understanding how the human mind works, and they are experts at manipulating it. If they weren’t, the scam never would have taken off, and tens of thousands of victims around the world wouldn’t be out of millions of dollars.
Now replace the Nigerian Prince scam with Democrat party propaganda, and you begin to see exactly what is going on. The Democrat party, along with its comrades in the media, academia, and the regulatory state, are the grifters sitting behind the computer screen spamming America with outlandish claims and promises of fortune, knowing that a certain element of the population is sufficiently gullible to believe them.
For fifty years, Democrats told American women that men were superfluous to raising children, but now that’s moot because men can have babies, genetic men are real women, and prepubescent children are mature enough to consent to sex change operations. They tell us with a straight face that the “Woman of the Year” should be a guy who used to be a mediocre men’s swimmer but who dominates when competing against real women.
For decades, Democrats told black Americans that Democrats were their champions when even a modicum of research would reveal that it was the Democrats who started a war to keep blacks in chains, fought the 13th, 14th, and15th Amendments, started the KKK, wrote Jim Crow laws, and filibustered the Civil Rights Act. It was the Democrats whose policies destroyed the nuclear black family and eviscerated cities like Detroit, Chicago, and others that were once engines of black advancement. It was the Democrats who called for defunding the police and for “equity” in the justice system, severing the connection between actions and consequences and leaving the blood of thousands of black Americans on streets across the country.
And perhaps most treacherously of all, it was Democrats who told blacks that America is a systemically racist nation where they had no chance for success, sparking the worst racial tension in America in two generations. Proving their disdain for black voters, they tell black Americans their lives are at risk because of racist whites when every black person in America knows they have far more to fear from black males, and it’s not even close.
Democrats constantly tell the middle class they’re being shafted because the rich didn’t pay their fair share. In reality, the top 10% of income earners pay 71% of all federal income taxes while the bottom 50% pay a mere 3%.
They also tell us the border is secure while we watch thousands of people simply walk into the country. Then, they call anyone who notices a racist.
Finally, in 2020 when Americans went to bed with Donald Trump ahead in the polls in states like Georgia, Pennsylvania, and Michigan, only to wake up the next morning to find that Democrat-run cities had stopped counting the votes for hours and, then, when they restarted, Biden was magically ahead. Again, with straight faces, they tell us a guy who couldn’t fill a phone booth for his rallies beat a guy whose supporters overflowed football stadiums across the country, and the guys we see on video walking around with flags inside the Capitol on Jan 6th represent the biggest attack on America since 9/11.
The Nigerian Price scammers are pikers when compared to the Democrats. All they want is to empty someone’s bank account. Democrats want total control over everyone’s lives.
When the gullible give their money to the Nigerian Prince scammers, it’s only their bank accounts that are being emptied, but when gullible and stupid voters give their votes to Democrats, they’re undermining the Republic for the entire population. The difference is that most of the marks who fall for the Prince scam learn their lessons and rarely make the same mistake twice while the marks who vote for Democrats continue to do it regardless of the damage they do. There’s a word for that.
INDU chart, The blue fork is too steep and to reach the ML would have a new all time high and don't think that will happen. The green fork placed so the ML lines up with expected late June high shows the Dow will be hit hard with 14% down in two weeks. The forks are far from perfect and don't always work, but one of the best tools in the box
https://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=%24INDU&p=60&st=2021-11-01&i=t8633686033c&a=1280928307&r=1682776991545&r=1682777189636
SPY 1 hr: My current view, at the finish of the up move (possible spike up Mon?) should start the down move to be reached not earlier than mid May and the up move after should be at least 5 weeks or more to exceed Aug highs
https://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=SPY&p=60&yr=1&mn=4&dy=0&i=p81064549921&a=350704571&r=1682773536228
Some chart comparisons:
QQEW, the blue up fork has failed yet QQQ has not which brings cause to doubt this is the correct fork position in QQQ
https://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=QQEW&p=30&st=2022-07-01&i=t0411559087c&a=1371437481&r=1682768186183&r=1682771923546
Here's QQQ:
https://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=QQQ&p=30&st=2022-07-01&i=t8037493782c&a=412962100&r=1682772147982&r=1682772503476
COMPQ with three different fork positions, a bit confusing, read the text
https://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=%24COMPQ&p=30&st=2022-07-01&i=p50961630305&a=282143477&r=1682772663993&r=1682772736055&r=1682773230368
HFTOM, Happy Family Theory of Markets, when one or more member of HFTOM makes new SIGNIFICANT
high or low the others will follow. A recent post of mine commented that there was some failures, NYA a decade or so ago and COMPQ and NDX in 2020 didn't take out 2018 lows. What to watch for, one or two either are early or late and it can be much later that it plays out, this is just another toll in the box and is subject to interpretation. For RUT (IWM as Stockcharts quit having RUT data) we have an unfilled low and the rest of the family is moving on a more recent high now. I do have a theory that is only from memory and would take much time to prove, that the previous needs to finish before the more recent. I would say if the other members all take out the Aug highs then we have an RUT failure, but at this point it has not happened and I have not seen RUT fail yet.
https://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=IWM&p=60&st=2021-11-01&i=p22209884227&a=1361692571&r=1682769432402&r=1682770269826
I took a short (tza) at the close although it was difficult and the first of the year I had doubt.
SPX pattern actually looks good still, but too many other breaches through the up forks and some too steep forks.
Current SPY chart, take out the pink line below first around 380 then take out the upper one
https://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=SPY&p=60&yr=1&mn=4&dy=0&i=p81064549921&a=350704571&r=1682605589424&r=1682605768286&r=1682606060279
SPX 30 min: Once that blue fork lower right anchor gets trashed the lower right black anchor comes into play. There's a fit at 3800 and also 3725 which is my guess right now, need more study time with this.
https://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=%24SPX&p=30&yr=0&mn=7&dy=0&i=t2619973004c&a=307755350&r=1682440551995&r=1682440720709
"Shenanigans", looking for some clues to keep out of trouble.
QQEW chart, the red circle, yesterdays close will be taken out today and it seems like the black fork with the right anchor quite a bit down there could happen.
IWM Oct low didn't take out the June low which all the happy family did. AJ never acknowledged IWM (Russel 2K ETF) as a real family member but to be watched, although I've never seen R2K fail and maybe should be an equal member.
https://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=QQEW&p=30&yr=0&mn=7&dy=0&i=t1066811570c&a=1371437481&r=1682421407364&r=1682421636265
SPY 5 min: Puts the top of this mess out into mid May at the earliest, still looking to take out last August high.
https://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=SPY&p=5&yr=0&mn=1&dy=15&i=p61085895695&a=473093236&r=1681984155138&r=1681984334660
NYA was in AJ's family, although it did have a failure about 10 years ago, I believe he still accepts it. INDU has and is in the family.
Another issue with the HFTOM: COMPQ and NDX had a failure in that they didn't take out the Christmas 2019 low in 2020. AJ commented that it was the FANG components although I noticed that the equal weight comp and ndx failed also.
HFTOM My interpretation has us needing the family to take out last August high.
INDU, NYA and (tran) already have (tran not really a HFTOM member)
GDL,
You're the perfect poster child for indoctrination by fake democrat biased media.
Gleno's board is a TA board, your twisted FA ramblings don't fit and you continue to put forth libtard hate on a board that has at least half or more conservatives. Have some respect and leave Glen alone.
SPY 60 min, target just under 433
https://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=SPY&p=60&yr=1&mn=4&dy=0&i=p74239406397&a=350704571&r=1679159080508&r=1679159515971
I have 4267 as a minimum and JK has 4350 ES which is probably better although I don't know what or if there is a divergence between ES and spx. A number of my charts seem to be pointing at the second week in April for a top
2 charts of interest, NFLX gap fill @ 506.84, TSLA target 340
https://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=NFLX&p=60&st=2021-10-01&i=p33462935881&a=1178005925&r=1678844913025&r=1678844976630
https://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=TSLA&p=60&st=2021-09-01&i=p54575303129&a=1260981565&r=1678845033843&r=1678845149474