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SYN: You see that there was a "hit piece" on SYN on Seeking Alpha yesterday? Blatant shorter who left out a LOT of information. I have no problem if one wants to short SYN or thinks it's El Stinko, but this article is nonsense, like a lot of other SA articles. I don't believe 75% of what most state and only use them as bait to sell into, or out of.
There are a few decent peeps to follow there (Bob stocks, Jason Napo, etc.)
thx. always need to learn what works for others :)
Great trade! What was your entrance theory? 13 ema crossing...?
SDS Ultra S&P Short Options - Bought options in the SDS before close Monday afternoon.
Bought SDS 10 @ $.15 = $158 (w/fees)
(CALL (SDS) PROSHARES TRUST PSHS MAY 23 14 $28 (100 SHS)
I bought this small amount ($158) as a test to get used to the Fidelity Options interface and also to start hedging my account.
Basically it means that I believe the SDS will be above $28 by end of trading on Friday or before. If it isn't - then i lose $158. If it is, then I'll get whatever it's going for. I can sell at anytime before Saturday if I choose.
I prefer the markets to go up, and my holding with them, but going forward, I'll buy hedges as insurance if it goes down.
Norm, Thanks for heads up on ETRM $elloff. Since he switched to email notification I find it hard to follow at times, and its good to know when he's in and out as that does effect price movement for some stocks on a short term basis.
Will keep on watching ETRM for an entry.
123tom, Nice Call! MSTX moved back to the $.70-$.75 area as you thought. Always good to trust your instincts (and charts) and filter out the noise.
ETRM - If things go somewhat as they have in the past, I completely agree with you Norm. There's a lot of eyes on ETRM and others like, NAVB. With ASCO starting soon, if Bios are going to make a short term sentiment comeback, now is the time and ETRM is one of the ones that I believe will see some type of a move up during this time. Having that catalyst in June (ADCOM), hopefully will give it a nice floor to stay from falling through.
To me the question is more of timing and how much it'll move. Sentiment has changed overall, but to me its a matter of degree. Maybe things don't fly as high, or as fast at the moment, but they still can move up and away.
I'll be looking to get back into ETRM on a down market day/week. Just watching for an entry as we get closer. My timeframes have shortened to a few weeks before catalyst.
Best of Luck!
MSTX $.606 - Waiting for your pitch and not going after the high fastball, probably a good idea with this one. Baker Bros hype nice for today and overall, but JMO, waiting for your price was prolly best move.
Has formed a triangle / pennant on the 15 Min. You can wait to see which direction it breaks out first and then see if it hits the support / resistance thereafter for an entry. Just my $.02.
CPRX $1.83 - is one of those, that for whatever reason, I feel that I just never quite have a good idea/hold of what it's going to do. So for the most part I stay away. I think we all have some stocks that for whatever reason, we just don't understand.
With that said, I do like the "W" pattern that it may be forming on the Daily Chart and has good support here in the lower/mid $1.70s.
Best of Luck with it! It certainly has a lot of eyes that follow it.
Upcoming Moves I plan to make this week (or next) if cash allows.
- Buy DRTX June 21 ($7.5) Call options for upcoming PDUFA on next Monday (or most believe perhaps Friday or before due to Memorial Day. May wait for a bear raid...or not.
- Watch, or perhaps buy options in ADMP when/if it falls or consolidates.
- Buy options in the BIS (inverse of IBB), FAZ, SDS, TZA, etc. All options designed to protect me in case of market meltdown (sell in May, etc.) and as a hedge against holdings. I didn't do this when I knew things were overbought, time to finally follow through now when account is setup.
- Flip trade ACST, ETRM, NAVB, VGZ (gold), GSS (gold) in the near future.
- Sell ELTP and IDRA. If market holds up, I believe both have a good chance of a good pop in the next week or two.
- Hold SYN. Perhaps average down.
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As always, I may change my mind depending upon many factors. Just my plan at the moment.
NASDAQ - To me the NASDAQ are the leaders, tech companies, high flyers, etc. Here is a MONTHLY chart of the last 18 years of the COMPQ.
Is it moving back into the channel and then moving up? As most know, I'm a firm believer of RSI trendlines. From what I can see, the RSI has just broken below the green support line that I drew. That by itself doesn't mean too much, but if it falls below the red RSI support line I drew - around 65ish, that could mean trouble.
Just my opinion of course. 2003 - 2008 (5 years) of mostly in Overbought on Full STO (always over 50ish) - then back down. 2009 - 2014 (5 years) of mostly in Overbought on Full STO (always over 50ish) and now peaking???
NASDAQ MONTHLY CHART with pretty lines and annotations.
At the moment, my account is in limbo. I think Monday I'll be able to add or sell, as it's being transferred from a Work Sponsored 401k to a rollover IRA. Fidelity gave us different answers for the last 2-3 weeks depending upon who we talk to etc. But I finally think they got it right and the account will be setup properly finally (hopefully).
Am waiting out SYN for the moment still. No money to average down on it. I'm not positive on a direction of it either way. Of course, it depends upon the markets overall and this is a "touchy" time with All time highs with S&P and then NASDAQ and small caps acting goofy and not following.
So, just watching for the time being. If I had to guess, overall it looks to be about to make a move up, but that doesn't mean it won't have a scary moment down or some consolidation still.
MACD is about to cross and the 15DMA looks to be crossing the 50DMA, which is a "buy" signal on the Daily. Full Stochastics way oversold, but it can remain there.
watching and waiting.
I have Private Messaged trade2much to make sure he's ok. He let me know that he was and that with Spring pretending to be here, he's trying to golf more and also has been busy with some projects.
OT: Cubs game with my Dad. We're huge baseball fans and my dad has always taken me and my brother to a lot of games. Wrigley Field is a special place to watch a game with it's old fashioned feel.
He took us to a game in the 70's in which Mike Schmidt (always killed the Cubs) hit 4 HR's in a game. When the wind blows out, pitchers take cover (it's 7 blocks from Lake Michigan). It actually blows in more then it blows out.
Seeing as they suck and haven't won a World Series in 100+ years, and when they do get good, they choke in unbelievable ways. Even in the last few years, when they're good, they suck the life out of their fans. They've lost their last 8 straight playoff games.
So, when on the day we went, they were winning 5-2 going into the 9th. As a Cubs fan, on a *special day*, you just know what that means. And what that means is..
Up 5-2 in the 9th...
Cubs reliever walks the leadoff guy, the next batter hits a "would be doubleplay" that the SS makes an error on. Next batter walks, bases loaded, then ...next batter hits another double play type ball that hits the very corner of 2nd base and takes a weird bounce into the outfield. Next play the RF runs to catch a fly ball and pulls up lame with a hamstring injury, doesn't get to the ball (goes on DL then)...
Diamondbacks score 5 in the 9th, Cubs lose 7-5.
It takes a lot of nerve to be a cubs fan. Game was upper 40's and wind off the Lake.
But in the end, I'm lucky enough to be able to go to a game with my dad. Wrigley looked great all "dudded up." My dad said it was a great early Father's Day gift and was something he'll always remember. So, that's what counts. Oh and we got lucky in not having to watch the collapse (that I knew was coming), as you know, old guys have to leave the game early as he had surgery on his knee recently and didn't want to deal with the crowd leaving. We left in the 8th I think. When listening to the radio on the ride home, my dad kept saying "I can't believe they lost." I kept saying "I can't believe - that you can't believe they lost :)"
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Side Note: i used to send in for a lot of autographs. The Dodgers in the 70's and 80's were great about signing them through the mail. My dad also did that with us and it was fun to look forward to the mailman coming and get letters with pictures in the mail back then. I have a good number of Fernando, Ron Cey, Dusty Baker, Steve Garvey, Pedro Guerrero Jerry Reuss and other autos.
OT: Rough couple of days medically and then busy helping my parents in buying a new house and fixing their old one to sell. I'm hoping to get back on track soon.
Also... in the process of moving funds from one account to the next - IRA rollover from wife job switch. Once that's done (taking longer then they said it would), I'll start taking new positions after I've had a chance to catch up on charts and news.
Hope everyone is eeking out what they can in this market and staying defensive and focused on NEAR term plays.
Thanks for asking.
ASCO : Cure for the Summertime Blues? May 30-June 3
Hey, lookie that, its May and ASCO is coming up ...end of month...Will Bios take this as an excuse to be loved again?
American Society of Clinical Oncology
The 2014 ASCO Annual Meeting is the platform for the release of thousands of scientific abstracts -- highly anticipated research news for many people, including patients, caregivers, and the general public.
ASCO is pleased to share this timely information with the public in a variety of ways.
Get Timely News Highlights on Cancer.Net
Free patient-friendly summaries of research news highlights from this year’s Annual Meeting will be available via ASCO’s patient information website, Cancer.Net (www.cancer.net). Scientific news will be posted as soon as it becomes publicly available:
Easy-to-read summaries that put the top scientific news into context for patients, searchable by disease type or category
Videos and podcasts of national and international cancer experts, breaking down the science into specific disease areas and explaining what the studies mean for people with cancer
A section of related events and highlights from the ASCO Annual Meeting
To receive ASCO Annual Meeting breaking news via email, sign up now to receive the free newsletter Inside Cancer.Net. You can also follow Cancer.Net on Facebook, Twitter, or Google+ where real-time updates will also be sent out during the meeting.
News from the 2014 meeting will start to be released on May 14, 2014 at 5:00 PM EDT, with additional studies being released each day of the event, held May 30 to June 3.
Wednesday, May 14, 2014,
at 5:00 PM (EDT)
Abstracts released
May 29-30, 2014
Pre-Annual Meeting Seminars
May 30-June 3, 2014
2014 ASCO Annual Meeting
Ned's Watchlist and Catalysts:
- DRTX 5/26 PDUFA (12-0 Positive Adcom vote). $heff play, Bob Stocks play and went from $14 to $17 on ADCOM vote, then back to...oh $14. lookie that. I'll take a move back to $17ish :). Am going to play the options on this one as it gets closer. How can you not like a 12-0 ADCOM vote? IMO, the only question on this one is, how much of the price is baked in, assuming people believe it will be approved and it ran up in the last 6 months, it did come back down with the sector. Am waiting - Still a few weeks away.
- NAVB 6/16 PDUFA - Nearing/At double bottom on Daily chart to the $1.30ish area. It's still over a month away - I'll wait until MACD looks to be crossing over, and until I see some type of RSI divergence compared to price. NAVB getting killed last day or so on new shelf filing paperwork. Company states that filing is only necessary because the old one is expiring and that they do not plan to use it at the moment.
- ETRM 6/17 - ADCOM - Over 5 weeks away - like NAVB, no hurry. I'm going to wait until it falls to lower Bollinger Band ($1.50ish) and the Full Stochastics nears oversold (20ish). People will start to enter this again soon. Just a matter of when. No hurry if I miss it. I may see if it falls to fill the gap around $1.37ish.
- CYTR - I need to research the catalysts, but the hoo-ha about the Dream Team promotion gone bad and the bio sector slammed it. RSI divergence is happening on the Daily (RSI sloping up - Price not following). May wait until it fills the gap around $2.60.
Others watching: ADMP, MSTX, NVAX, GEVO. Will finally get around to running my scans that did me well months ago.
OT: GREED will win out. We all know Bios aren't being shown the love, but it's important to remember that greed will win out. They'll come back in favor, maybe not the whole sector at once, maybe not to the levels it has been the last few years, but one by one, they will be back in favor at some point. Maybe next week, maybe 3 months from now, maybe next year.
It's always important to choose wisely, but never more so then now. Trim your focus to a select few. Follow those closely, and act quickly to get out if it turns against you. Live to trade another day. I'm always learning that and need to trust my instincts and charts and not my heart.
It's not the Bios by themselves, the Small Cap stocks are getting clobbered as well. Anything with a high beta. Discretionaries have been shown the door, Staples have been the new norm.
Adjust to the new norm, but remember, "Meet the new Boss - Same as the old Boss." The Boss market as a whole will take your money if you don't adjust.
I'm adjusting my focus. I'll be going back and sticking to what has done the best for me, short term trades based upon a stock that looks good overall on the Weekly, the Daily and then entering upon the 15 Min chart. Stocks that have near term catalysts; 1-2 weeks - up to a month at the very most.
Just my $.02, and all in my opinion. Best of Luck.
Biotech Sentiment : ARRY $3.88 up 6% - Receives Orphan Designation
via @tradehawk
$ARRY gets FDA Orphan Designation for FILANESIB for Treatment of multiple myeloma. http://stks.co/e0XPP
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Array pops to 11% on Orphan, then falls to 6%. Volume up but nothing extraordinary.
RESEARCH : Joe Springer Stock Movement After Article
I never heard of Joe Springer until a month or so ago, but have been following Pmony and Bob Stocks and their constant mentions on iHub boards about ADMP being undervalued, and how Joe Springer is writing an article soon. I know hesse is holding it.
I've now read about Springer's past and how his picks did very well. I know that an article is coming out on ADMP very soon, possibly next few days (according to Joe's tweets). I read his article from Dec of '13; link: http://seekingalpha.com/article/1896981-6-doubles-in-a-row-and-2014s-top-pick
...in which he details how his picks did fantastic and on average gained 174% over a year or so. That's fantastic but that's over time (I'm not knocking it - it's AWESOME). Right now though, the markets are near their tops and we know that bios have been getting slaughtered. Last year, they were off the charts great. So, holding over time may work out fine, but what I care about, as a trader right now (investor later if I make more $$$), is how the share price moves in the short term (few days to two months) after he writes an article. If the markets tank overall, long term holding may not be a good idea at the moment.
So, I did some research on his articles and how the share priced moved after each article was written. All prices are *ish, meaning I looked at the chart and not historical prices, so I'm guestimating based upon candlestick charts and should be within +/- $.10 or so at worst.
PRICE MOVEMENTS FOR HIS STOCKS THAT HE'S WRITTEN ARTICLES
SYMBOL: Article Date : Stock Price Day of/before article : Price Near Term (days after - 1 week) : Price 1-2 Months after
FTEK : 12/17/12 : $3.59 : $4.50 ish (25%) : $5.00 ish (39%) - 1-2 months
TA : 1/14/13 : $5.00 : $6.75 (35%) : $11.25 (125%) - 3 months
MNKD : 3/8/13 : $2.75 : $3.50 (27%) : $8.00 (190% ) - 2 months
HYGS : 5/24/13 : 8.10 : $13.50 (67%) : $16.50 (103%) - 1 month
IMUC : 8/7/13 : $3.40 : $2.62 (-30%) : $4.00 (18%) - 3-4 months (IMUC popped hard on Nov 25(ish) and sold off in the day immediately following - but you would have been able to get out at the price you bought ($3.40) or higher, although it would have taken 3-4 months.
TNXP : 12/3/13 : $6.00 : $9.25 (54%) : $19.00 (217%) - 1-2 months
What's also important, is that in no time (EXCEPT FOR IMUC - down 30% after - OUCH), did the price of the stock fall in the 2 months after the article was written - to below the price at the date of the article. Meaning, that after the article, there was little retracement (EXCEPT FOR IMUC). Yes, there were days to a week of consolidation, but that was after it popped up 30% or more and looking at it, really no fear of sell on news. My 2 Most Important Rules: #1: Don't lose money, #2: Make money. Both rules seem to hold up well with his last 6 picks. IMUC rallied back to buy price of article, so one could have gotten out even to a profit.
It's also important to note, that sometimes he's written more than one article, as was the case with IMUC, so the price did rise very well after his first article. I need to research (or not and I'll just let it go) as to why it sold off immediately during / after his article. Upon reading a little bit about IMUC, it seems that they released bad trial data that caused it to reverse. It may have started selling off before his article, I'm just not sure.
In theory, ADMP looks like a very good pick right now to make 30% minimum in the short term - after the article comes out. Then possibly, 30% to 100% or even as crazy as it sounds 200% - 1-3 months after. Of course, "LOCKING IN PROFITS" ..."LOCKING IN PROFITS" is always most important.
Just some research for myself and the board. I really appreciate when others continue to post info and news updates on the stocks that I and others on this board are holding. As always, let's keep watching each other's backs and offering suggestions and thoughts as to fundamentals and charting.
If i have any available cash. I may get some ADMP soon, it seems like a very good risk/reward. If I miss out, there's always another bus. One of the things I don't like about ADMP is the very low volume historically. But that has picked up in the last 6 months overall, and it went from $3.5 to $11.50 on less then 250k per day.
All in my opinion. Hope this helps someone.
RGDX - I'm still going to follow it and when/if i have time look into why it fell. Remember it had the news in the last two months about the new sales agreements, which in theory - should be more $$. Am not sure what they said today leading to the fall in price.
CHTP - This is good news for the shareholders who still held and also good news for the Bio industry. Positive ADCOM, positive PDUFA, and then following through with sale. Helps for good mojo and people to believe in the next thing coming along.
Thanks for posting hesse. Been at doctors last few days, peeking at holdings and news when I can. much appreciated.
IDRA - Just seems to be oversold (on good news) over past two months. Hopefully with the news today - partnership with Abbott, it will solidify and start to get some needed attention and make its move back up. I see $3.17 (200 DMA) on the horizon for it soon (hopefully).
yeah, one of those days indeed. I have some shares in a good company named SYN if you'd like to buy? They're on sale :)
Just let me know and I'll force myself to let some go your way for a good price.
NVAX - MERS. Truth be told, I haven't paid close attention to it yet, and I thought, whenever I heard the name or read the headline MERS, that it was actually MERSA that people were referring to. I was wondering in the back of my mind why it was being made such a big deal, as the MERSA infection is common in hospitals. Then when I heard about someone flying in from the Middle East to the US (Indiana i think) who was quarantined for it, i realized.
mersa potato tomato mers
Sorry to hear that horent. Which ones you take a beating on? If it makes you feel any better, you're probably not alone. Am down about 2k today i think.
Tomorrow is another day.
IDRA - $2.67 - Bought 400 more - Avg now $3.43. Looking good for end of day rally on IBB ..me thinks.
IDRA - $2.75 - To Host Conference Call & Webcast to Report First Quarter 2014 Financial Results & Provide a Detailed Review Pipeline of Orphan Therapeutic Candidates, Business Strategy and Recent Highlights
Idera Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (NASDAQ:IDRA), a clinical stage biopharmaceutical company developing novel therapeutics for orphan patient populations with B-cell lymphomas and autoimmune diseases, today announced that the Company will host a conference call and live audio webcast with an accompanying slide presentation at 8:00 a.m. EDT on Tuesday, May 13, 2014 to report its first quarter 2014 financial results. The Company will also provide a detailed review of its pipeline progress, business strategy, recent highlights and upcoming milestones.
In order to participate in the conference call, please dial 1-800-706-7741 (domestic) or 1-617-614-3471 (international) and provide the access code 15389137. The live webcast and slides can be accessed under “Investor Events” in the Investors section of the Company’s website at www.iderapharma.com.
A replay of the call will be available at 1:30 p.m. EDT on May 13, 2014 until 11:59 p.m. EDT on May 20, 2014. To access the replay, please dial 1-888-286-8010 (domestic) or 1-617-801-6888 (international) and reference the access code 88784725. The archived webcast will be available for 30 days in the Investors section of Idera’s website at www.iderapharma.com.
STEM - $1.25 - Upcoming Catalyst on 5/14/14 (or as always - may come before), according to Biopharmcatalyst.com.
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NEWARK, CA, April 17, 2014 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) — StemCells, Inc. (Nasdaq:STEM) announced today that it has completed enrollment in the Company’s Phase I/II clinical trial in spinal cord injury. The multi-national, open-label, Phase I/II trial is evaluating both safety and preliminary efficacy of StemCells, Inc.’s proprietary HuCNS-SC® human neural stem cells as a treatment for chronic spinal cord injury. The trial enrolled twelve subjects with chest-level injury to the spinal cord. The trial enrolled seven patients with complete paralysis, no motor or sensory function below the point of injury, classified as complete (AIS A), according to the American Spinal Injury Association Impairment Scale, and five patients with no motor function and limited sensory function below the point of injury classified as incomplete (AIS B). Zurich study site principal investigator, Dr. Armin Curt, will present an interim update based on six month data for the first six subjects at the American Spinal Injury Association conference this coming May. Final results from this landmark study are expected to be released mid-2015.
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I've played STEM once before successfully as one of my first trades in December. I'm in agreement here with Smurf that it looks to be a good play in this area. Good support around $1.19 below. Full STO just curved up, MACD crossed recently, now need to get it up over 0, and RSI has sloped down, now is flattening out and possibly moving above 50.
Can wait it out and see if it moves down to $1.19 ish and snag a few shares, or buy now for a possible move up into the partial data release.
April Results + $95.06 (4k less than my average :)
Yes, there's only two closed trades in April for me. Man, that green long bar looks impressive until you realize it's only $100ish. Both of those trades finished around even and were held for maybe 1-2 months. I broke my rules for mental stop losses. Maybe its time for me to set up actual stop losses and not mental ones. If I'm not better at exiting according to my stop loss rules and overall rules I may.
My cash was all used up so it was either take losses on holdings (which I didn't want to do because they still had reasons to come back (and 2 did and I still think ELTP and IDRA will be fine)), and then re-invest, or wait it out. I chose to wait it out.
Remember, I'm not against taking losses when the situation has changed, but otherwise, I'll do whatever I can not to take a loss. It's not an ego thing, its a gains thing. Again, I'm in this to make money and any loss needs 2x as much to make a gain. Example: -$1,000 loss = a $1,000 gain to get back to even, then another $1,000 to make a nice profit.
I'm going to re-visit my rules and post them for later. I find that when I'm charting and watching, I'm still seeing good setups and cash to be made. I haven't lost faith or confidence (only a little).
It was a rollercoaster month for me in which I was down $14k in my holdings, only to scratch back to down $3k, and then my problem child SYN abrupted. Then back to $11k down.
I am still holding ELTP (down 6%), IDRA (down 19%). I am hoping to make $3,000 on ELTP, and break even on IDRA (or a very small loss). Right now, I'm sitting on my SYN loss. If it goes down, and it makes sense, I'll average down (probably double) and it'll be cheaper to afford at the lower $1 levels. If it goes up, that's cool too.
Been a rough month for those of us trading Bios. I still am looking to trade Bios and then others of course too. Will be looking to finally start trading options again. Will follow my charts and also check in with Smurf and AZY on charts with possible fast setups. I have a lot of good charts to post about the Bio sector and the overall markets and possible directions, stay tuned.
Let's keep watching out for each other and posting any info that we know others here are holding. I'm still having a lot of problems with my spine and that keeps me from posting a lot, but we all have our issues/distractions to deal with.
Thanks hesse for a few of the latest postings of ones that I've been watching.
May the Fourth (and the rest of May) be with all of us this month.
No money for it, otherwise I would have joined you earlier today.
sounds good. Chart looked good on the 15min for a pop today and overall the daily looks great. follow whatever plan you have (but remember to lock in profits).
good connection hesse
(I had that exact urge one hour ago). Seriously. Actually, When it hit $.51, my chart explicitly said "SELL", It had 3 tops in the RSI on the 15 min chart (sell signal). but because it was running I had to let it go to see if it would continue at least the next morning, and if there was a reason for the runup on no news.
So I didn't sell - even though i was down $8K on it last month (in at $.49). I was back to even to up $400.
So am holding now for some overdue PR's. Hope they come soon to pop it for us.
INO - Don't forget to "LOCK IN PROFITS" at whatever level you had in mind before you made the trade. You can also take 1/3 or 1/2 off the top if you don't take it all. You're not going to get 12k back in one trade.
INO - $2.51 - Ticks me off how it always seems that they (MM's) drop the price right before they take off with it. They dropped INO to $2.35 right before popping it now.
Just to shake a few out first. wankers.
Go get 'em!
percentages : the important thing is the percentages and learning when to enter and exit. 5-20% is the same when you invest $1,000 or $10,000.
Yes very good point. When I free up some money, I'm going to play some options again. That also allows for playing the more expensive ones.
Stay focused. The past is the past, no reason to cry about it, or in the case of wins (brag about it). Learn what you can from the past, otherwise, just like you have - let it go.
(says the man who is 11k down in his holdings - but am determined to be even with them by the end of the month).