SmurfVA's Random Picks

[Ned Serious]

RESEARCH : Joe Springer Stock Movement After Article

I never heard of Joe Springer until a month or so ago, but have been following Pmony and Bob Stocks and their constant mentions on iHub boards about ADMP being undervalued, and how Joe Springer is writing an article soon. I know hesse is holding it.

I've now read about Springer's past and how his picks did very well. I know that an article is coming out on ADMP very soon, possibly next few days (according to Joe's tweets). I read his article from Dec of '13; link: http://seekingalpha.com/article/1896981-6-doubles-in-a-row-and-2014s-top-pick

...in which he details how his picks did fantastic and on average gained 174% over a year or so. That's fantastic but that's over time (I'm not knocking it - it's AWESOME). Right now though, the markets are near their tops and we know that bios have been getting slaughtered. Last year, they were off the charts great. So, holding over time may work out fine, but what I care about, as a trader right now (investor later if I make more $$$), is how the share price moves in the short term (few days to two months) after he writes an article. If the markets tank overall, long term holding may not be a good idea at the moment.

So, I did some research on his articles and how the share priced moved after each article was written. All prices are *ish, meaning I looked at the chart and not historical prices, so I'm guestimating based upon candlestick charts and should be within +/- $.10 or so at worst.

PRICE MOVEMENTS FOR HIS STOCKS THAT HE'S WRITTEN ARTICLES

SYMBOL: Article Date : Stock Price Day of/before article : Price Near Term (days after - 1 week) : Price 1-2 Months after

FTEK : 12/17/12 : $3.59 : $4.50 ish (25%) : $5.00 ish (39%) - 1-2 months
TA : 1/14/13 : $5.00 : $6.75 (35%) : $11.25 (125%) - 3 months
MNKD : 3/8/13 : $2.75 : $3.50 (27%) : $8.00 (190% ) - 2 months
HYGS : 5/24/13 : 8.10 : $13.50 (67%) : $16.50 (103%) - 1 month
IMUC : 8/7/13 : $3.40 : $2.62 (-30%) : $4.00 (18%) - 3-4 months (IMUC popped hard on Nov 25(ish) and sold off in the day immediately following - but you would have been able to get out at the price you bought ($3.40) or higher, although it would have taken 3-4 months.
TNXP : 12/3/13 : $6.00 : $9.25 (54%) : $19.00 (217%) - 1-2 months

What's also important, is that in no time (EXCEPT FOR IMUC - down 30% after - OUCH), did the price of the stock fall in the 2 months after the article was written - to below the price at the date of the article. Meaning, that after the article, there was little retracement (EXCEPT FOR IMUC). Yes, there were days to a week of consolidation, but that was after it popped up 30% or more and looking at it, really no fear of sell on news. My 2 Most Important Rules: #1: Don't lose money, #2: Make money. Both rules seem to hold up well with his last 6 picks. IMUC rallied back to buy price of article, so one could have gotten out even to a profit.

It's also important to note, that sometimes he's written more than one article, as was the case with IMUC, so the price did rise very well after his first article. I need to research (or not and I'll just let it go) as to why it sold off immediately during / after his article. Upon reading a little bit about IMUC, it seems that they released bad trial data that caused it to reverse. It may have started selling off before his article, I'm just not sure.

In theory, ADMP looks like a very good pick right now to make 30% minimum in the short term - after the article comes out. Then possibly, 30% to 100% or even as crazy as it sounds 200% - 1-3 months after. Of course, "LOCKING IN PROFITS" ..."LOCKING IN PROFITS" is always most important.

Just some research for myself and the board. I really appreciate when others continue to post info and news updates on the stocks that I and others on this board are holding. As always, let's keep watching each other's backs and offering suggestions and thoughts as to fundamentals and charting.

If i have any available cash. I may get some ADMP soon, it seems like a very good risk/reward. If I miss out, there's always another bus. One of the things I don't like about ADMP is the very low volume historically. But that has picked up in the last 6 months overall, and it went from $3.5 to $11.50 on less then 250k per day.

All in my opinion. Hope this helps someone.