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I've made some and lost some this year so far. I think I'm still a little ahead on SDS, but lost appox 3% PF value on SRS mostly because I didn't mind the stops (over the course of 2009).
For me a core position right now is about 25% PMs here (lagging or value plays for the most part) and the rest cash. No shorts currently, but like many chomping at the bit for the right time.
Think there might some manipulated numbers in tomorrow's jobs report? Gold acting well and a few laggards I'd like to play, but too much manipulation possible ST. Too many praising gold of late as well. Sitting on my hands w/my core positions.
Near the bottom of the channel on the HUI. Should get a bounce here at least (GDX at 41.5 or so). I should be buying, but gold and silver still look too extended ST. Going to sit on hands a bit longer. Off to practice golf swing.
Sry, been fairly busy to post. Will update later on more gen. market and gold thoughts in more depth.
Looks like HUI is heading back to 370-350 area. Sold a bunch today. Had some shorts going into today, but will probably ride out a trip to 950 and this pt and then see if we get a gap fill. Overall gold gains way outpaced market short losses, but still sloppy on my part. Friday's late day action seemed rigged, but based on this morn, I guess not.
OT - Thanks. Wasn't sure if you were reading i-Hub again. Sucked you back in, eh? Been a very nice 3 days. Let's celebrate and go to Milw w/the families. CB is 4 hours of flight and 5 hrs of car for us. MIlw is 2 hr flight for us. We both have family in Milw. 2 birds w/one stone. Late July is out (trip already planned), but early Aug, or early/mid July might work. Might be fun to be there for the 4th. Let me know what you think.
Managed to get somewhat hedged prior to close. So have decent amount of shorts to offset existing gold holdings. Think NGD is still a buy here and definately on any pullback. AUY below 10 again and I'd like nibble back some of what I sold. More evenly spread out again from a risk management standpoint. Still think 910/915 or maybe even 940-950 is possible for S&P, but I think it would have to come next week to have much chance. Otherwise it's looking like we're break 870/875 area sooner than later and go down another 3-4% from there in fast order. Will be around this weekend if you want to chat.
Done selling. Have about 60% (overall) of what I had previously. Sold the most GG as it's been lagging compared to my other plays, then AUY and didn't touch NGD, ER, KTN.
Sold the SRS for a gain and will look for a reentry in gen. market shorts later. Been a very nice 3 days. Off to daughter's preschool for some quality time.
Think today might be a local top in the miners. Starting to sell some as I'm overweight and shift into some gen. market shorts. Top may just be a few days or a week or two. Hard to say right now. Not going to get too cute. Will maintain decent positions unless action is obvious.
Key pt of the day just happened for gold stocks. Gold and gold stocks at highs of the day while market moves to fresh lows. Couldn't have scripted it any better. Just need volume to pick up in the likes of ABX, NEM, GG etc.
I think this rally ST will probably end when ABX gets back new it's highs in Feb 09. The some consolidation prior to any fireworks. I'll be a seller ST to pare back exposure - not get all out, when ABX hits close to 40 level.
I don't think we'll see the inflation that many are expecting either. Or it'll be muted since it'll only come from what we import. Buffet is making some long term bets w/what he once termed as "weapons of mass destruction". I'm quite convinced he'll be proven wrong.
Of course this could unravel much faster than expected as the downturn came faster. Maybe the currency crisis will too.
Oil will be just as good as a hedge if not better than gold at some pt, but we could still be a few years out.
Pared back some AUY to buy more NGD. More risk management in overall portfolio as I was too overweight AUY. Staying fully invested here though I think tomorrow could be a ST top. Micros in many cases are still not moving even decent quality stuff such as CPQ. Makes me somewhat suspect of this move IT. But ST still think there's more upside. No CPQ here, but do have some KTN (small). Similar deposit, but more cash rich and cheaper overall.
Not the inflation in the here and now, but expected inflation. The mainstream story that I've been hearing more and more is that all this money creation is going to cause inflation down the road (plus the recovery is here so that'll make the inflation worse). I suspect we see another bout of bad deflation where everything gets sold. Gold might be sparred since it was sold off into the fall to absurd levels (at least the stocks), but I suspect not. Though the selloff in gold shouldn't be as bad this time (which aligns w/another Dollar rally that shouldn't be quite as strong as the fall).
"Wish this stuff was easier..."
If it was easier more people could do it. If it was easier it wouldn't be as gratifying (when it works). If it was easier I'd have an even more distorted view of reality.
I'm not sure either hour is more important. Depends on your timeframes of course, but we're both IT creatures (I think) that have been trying to trade more ST since that's what this market demands. Volume was still not there in many issues (ABX, NEM), but on some key issues (stuff I own) volume is looking nice.
This move in gold has been inspired more on inflation side so I don't think this is "it". But I do think the rally could go another 10-20% before failing again ST. I'm overweight AUY so if we get another big move tomorrow I'll likely take some and diversify or just raise a bit of cash. Deflation should rear it's head at least one more time before gold is crowned king. I don't have any set targets ST. Think we'll see a day where gold is up $20-30 soon and then we'll see if the gold stocks lag or get some volume.
I feel like taking the S&P short, but think we'll at least see one more push higher in gold ST. Right now decent odds we take out 875 on this move down (850/840), but wouldn't surprise me to see 900+ one last time if that happens.
Was a very nice day being weighted heavy gold. Think NGD/WGW should move soon. One of the few I added today.
Gen markets should tag higher levels before a bigger move down. Hopefully this should bust higher.
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With 20+ accounts to trade I tend to be a little slower at times going in/out. In this case I'm still holding the bag.
Probably smart move. Weakness in PMs mirrored by gen. markets.
Don't like this weak close w/the PMs at the end, but I think we may just need to recharge the hourly charts. Holding for now.
Some double tops on the hourlies, but daily still constructive for now.
Same boat, different plays. Looks like we bust higher. I just wish the volume was there in more issues. The other wild card is the general market, but that also looks like it wants higher ST. Blowoff together?
(edit) Thanks for the feedback. 5 min S&P - with rising wedge breakdown and retest occuring now. Granted 5 min charts are not that reliable. I redrew the chart to reflect other possibilities
Again per this chart this seems like the upside could be contained here at these levels. If we do bust higher from here I would favor a retest of the 920-930 area on the S&P.
Why the 910 level in your model? Mirror action?
I've taken some short positions again just a few min ago, but may be just a day trade. (So yes I'm biased). Moderate positions thus far.
Gold shares - If today's lows get taken out the sector is definately going at least another 10% lower. Haven't liquidated yet, but if do start going to those lows again I'll likely sell 1/2 if not all of my trading positions.
Frank, per the EW HUI chart I sent we either head back up into a V of 3 or we've got issues. Can't go much lower w/out a much big breakdown. So far they're coming off the lows. Would align w/my general market read as well.
Per this chart I think we head back up at some pt next week and hit the previous trend (around 900) one more time before hitting the lower part of the channel next. Beyond that I'm not sure.
5 - min S&P
(edit) Now that's probably better. One was a LT play for me (ER.TO) which is up on very heavy volume - won't touch it. The other I'm heavy is AUY which seems to be sporting the same pattern as IAG, NXG prior to it's breakout and it's one of the cheaper bigcaps. I'll stop myself as I'm somewhat unsure ST as well. Getting pigish on my part.
Also gold looks like it wants higher levels ST, but I'm not convinced by any means that this is "IT".
60 min S&P chart/channels - Currently 0 shorts and back to approx 40% PMs. A little heavy, but in specific plays.
Thanks for the feedback. Will take a look.
Seems like a break upward is likely out of this formation...
(edit) Took most of the SRS off the table. Probably too soon, but trading SRS very ST, and holding SDS a bit longer. Gold/gold stocks looking like there may be no pullback.
Volume is light so far in the golds. Will have too look further. Still net long approx 15-20% gold stocks in my main account, but if this is for real want to be more.
(edit) No when I was talking numbers/targets purely the S&P. I see what you see in gold. I do think the potential is there for a big move up soon. NXG and IAG may be leading the way (very odd there). Both broke to the upside recently. I just think we need at least one more decent shakeout before we can begin in earnest. Gold has been doing better of late because people are worried about inflation again. Maybe the global economy isn't so bad and all this money will cause inflation. Anti-Dollar plays such as oil, food, natural have done well of late and I believe have outperformed gold ST. I'd like to see gold moving opposite the general market again. I'd like to see us take out 920-930 decisively on volume if possible. And I like to see gold outperforming oil/food again. I think what'll happen when the markets start heading down again the focus will go back to deflation. In that environment gold, markets will probably go down together again for a while. Again how long I'm not sure. Gold stocks are at a cross-roads here imho. Right now I'll wait for more of a trend before I commit.
PS - I often tell people I'm wrong 40% of the time which is probably true. I just bet more on the trades where I have a higher confidence so over the long haul I do ok. So that said listen to me for entertainment value mostly.
Broke thru to the downside. If I'm right this should hit new lows or at least retest them by EOD. Otherwise I'll have to rethink it a bit.
I agree on the parabolic part and 950 and the 200 ema are so close I think they get tagged at this pt. But...
1) Too much bullishness ST.
2) Overbought ST.
3) Going into options week next week.
4) Too many looking to get short again. 950 would be too much of a gift, no?
5) At this risk/reward ratio IT I start to take some chances hitting the trend a bit early.
Again doing this ST on TA/EW and will use stops probably around 924 if seen.
If they're devious they may just be able to get back near the gap around 920-922 before heading lower again. ABC would still be valid.
Looking more like abcde move so direction probably won't resolve till close to 3 or 3:30. As always a swag.
No problem. I always have plenty of cliches, obvious insights handy.
S&P 5 min - should resolve lower
TA says so, and EW says possible 1 down w/abc correction and now part III or larger C down. Either way....down. (so I hope).
Gold had followed the markets up and I suspect we'll need another decoupling period. It might be very short or it might not. No strong opinion yet, but so far so good. Dollar will probably strengthen initially as defensive money goes back toward treasuries again. Each rally in the Dollar appears to be getting weaker and weaker. Right now I'm not sure we've seen the highs on the overall indexes. I think it's 50/50. If we get some down this week I'll be taking profits on shorts and likely looking to add some gold plays back.
A few other considerations which I'll probably relate later.
Gold stocks seems to be tracking the move in the general market. If one think that the move in the general market is unsustainable then I think we'll be able to buy at lower prices again. I still have some gold positions, but I did sell some today. I'm also scaling back into shorts. Maybe 950 area on the S&P, but I don't think we go much higher w/out at least coming back to these levels ST. As such forcing myself into some shorts again.
Nice trade. Always fun when you can make money against the prevailing trend. Haven't really used ADX, CCI in the past. I know people besides yourself though that find it useful. I took a .75% loss trying to short the market around 910. I knew I should have covered around lunchtime, but being away from the computer and only having rough charts I got sloppy. Was in the green for a brief while after putting the trade on, but didn't last too long. We'll see how tomorrow goes, but I'm guessing before the week is out I'll be shorting again.
How long have you been using CCI and ADX? In terms of your various TA indicators is it in the top 25/50% of things you use?
Thinking they'll want the headline to read that bank stress test released and market rallies for tomorrow. I probably will short though sometime tomorrow or friday. Currently out of all shorts. Suspicious of this gold rally doing much ST. Think a bit more upside, but will probably follow markets on a pullback. Energy may outperform for the next 1-2 months until things start heading back down in earnest. Don't have a good feel ST so this is a swag. Markets appear in blowoff mode so I'm chomping on the bit to short, but too early and it gets painful fast.