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Picked up a few BAC weekly $12.50 calls near the close, at $0.17. Go figure, the trade that looks like it'll go my way is the one I only put $144 into. AAPL puts hurt today, thought for sure we would pull back some, but I guess I should learn not to mess with them, as it seems to cost me, every time.
Certainly could use a bit of a pullback on AAPL. Got a few $440 puts at the $450 mark, and it hasn't worked out the way I would have liked.
Should be interesting to see how close the board average comes to the final close. Although we forgot/never knew about the ex-dividend on SPY on Friday, our board average was $155.95 versus Friday's close of $155.88. We were off by a whole 7 cents. I wonder if the board will repeat that accuracy this week?
Here I was, trying to figure out what stocks I thought might be overdue for a pullback off of the top of their channels, and now, we'll see a big drop at the open, and I'm sure everything I was looking at will be down, and not ready for an entry anymore.
Guess I'll just have to, you know, work at work, tomorrow.
AAPL $438.73
I was hoping you'd end up going with the S&P. 1560.7, and I'm guessing we would have been using our picks x 10. 156.01 - 156.11 for my range would be 1560.1 - 1561.1. Oh well, congrats to the winners!
As a side note: The average of all the guesses for the contest? $155.96, off by just 8 cents from the actual close on SPY today.
I withdraw my previous statement about adding the 0.69 to the price. Maybe we should just let it go, and see if it closes between 156.01 and 156.11, before we make a decision?
I support whatever decision you make, even if it does leave me about 3 cents away if you add on the 69 cents.
SPY calls are carrying no premium because they go ex-dividend today, for an estimated 0.69 payout, according to the prospectus. No pullback needed on the S&P 500 to cause a 0.5% drop on the SPY.
Good news is, if you're still bullish for next week, you'll get a chance to get in calls at yesterday's prices, again, and gains/losses should be more in line with what we would have expected from today's movement (ie, no 1:3 or 1:4 moves for ITM options vs SPY price).
Might look to get back in the $156's for next week, depending on where we get down to in the morning.
Getting out, anticipating a drop tomorrow for ex-dividend date, beyond the expected 69 cent payout? If they are thinking it'll drop more than that 69 cents, and given the recent run-up, they would be saving themselves money, by getting out BEFORE the dividend, no?
Guess we have the answer ... no wonder it was trading with no time value, ex-dividend date is tomorrow, hence no premium, given the expectation that it will drop by about the same as that dividend.
http://sixfigureinvesting.com/tag/spy-ex-dividend/
... or straight from the horse's mouth at the top of the page, once loaded ...
https://prospectus-express.newriver.com/PNET/summarydocument.asp?fundid=78462F103&clientid=VANG&docid=1489598&doctype=pros&docdate=20130123undefined#toc465941_45
And, if we happen to move down that 69 cents, tomorrow's close would be perfectly fine with me, around $156.04.
Not a problem! I did it more for my own curiosity, just to see how the picks were spread out. Certainly looks like I undershot it a bit on the contest though.
That's one reason I sold today, rather than holding. That's not to say I don't think it can still go up, but it closed yesterday at $155.90, and next week's $156 calls were at $0.62. Today, it ran all the way to $156.80, and the highest trade on the strike was $0.90. All of the time value, yesterday, and not a whole lot of movement today, given the pop on SPY, and just 10 cents of time value remaining.
I figured it was safer to take a gain now, than wait for more and lose a ton of value if it drops closer to $156.
Thanks! Certainly not the percentage gains some of you guys are used to, but with a small account, I'll certainly take the 25%+ gain on the account for less than a day's "work".
Also, thanks for continuing to push the SPY going up, idea, as it worked out wonderfully for me, today. Almost sold my 19 at 0.86 this morning, but missed by a few seconds because of my phone going slow, then on the pullback, decided to pick up those 8 more, so it was more profitable selling at 0.84 now, than the original 19 at 0.86.
2013-03-13 12:19:19 Filled SPY SPY 22 Mar 13 (W) 156.00 Call Buy To Open 9 $0.65
2013-03-13 12:19:19 Filled SPY SPY 22 Mar 13 (W) 156.00 Call Buy To Open 1 $0.65
2013-03-13 13:23:29 Filled SPY SPY 22 Mar 13 (W) 156.00 Call Buy To Open 9 $0.63
2013-03-14 09:21:54 Filled SPY SPY 22 Mar 13 (W) 156.00 Call Buy To Open 8 $0.70
2013-03-14 11:12:16 Filled SPY SPY 22 Mar 13 (W) 156.00 Call Sell To Close -19 $0.84
2013-03-14 11:12:16 Filled SPY SPY 22 Mar 13 (W) 156.00 Call Sell To Close -2 $0.84
2013-03-14 11:11:41 Filled SPY SPY 22 Mar 13 (W) 156.00 Call Sell To Close -6 $0.84
ironhammer, Joshfm, I've sent JB a PM wondering how he is going to handle multiple people picking the same value (my guess is, first come, first serve). Perhaps you should pick a new value, to make sure you don't miss out?
Only a minimal fee, like 2.5%, since it was made with your alerts?
http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=85376623
Yeah, apparently his "option picks" are more like directional stock "picks", hence his "hit" status on anything that moves in the direction he called for. If a stock has 57.50 and 55 strike prices, and he's calling for 56, those ITM/ATM strikes may cost too much, in whatever direction it's coming from, and the OTM strikes might lose too much value to time decay, or have too low of a delta to make any money on as well.
It's no wonder he won't post his "entries", when his "picks" still require people who will now be paying for the "picks" to decide what strike price they want to play. Calling us bashers for asking about entries/exits, or simply stating that according to his rules he stole from the iBox here, he wouldn't have even traded 9 of the 14 "hits" on a Monday, is just a smokescreen, to avoid the fact that his "picks" are lacking in both information presented (when to get out, what strikes to play), and proof of trading success, supported by real-time or at least, semi real-time trade entries/exits.
Oh well, I guess we no longer have to worry about his "picks", as they became rather expensive, beginning last night.
I'll gladly welcome "defeat" on the SPY contest, if we see $157 shortly.
Any thoughts on a short-term target for SPY (say end of next week)? I decided to stop going against the market, after I got out on the VXX pop yesterday, and picked up some $156 calls for next week.
http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=85007422
I loved the "hit" on CSC $48 calls. HUGE gains being picked up there on the Monday "hit", with that 1 contract traded. I'm honestly surprised this post remains!
Of course, a short time after I posted that message (2 days, maybe 3), he added some guidelines to the iBox. My favorite part:
Entering a trade
¦Wait 15 minutes after market open for implied volatility to die off (better premium price)
¦Confirm price entry with 10 minute charts (ie. price has to close above/below target price).
So by that alone, those 9 hits that I called out (and his claim to have made 60% intraday on FB), should never have been entered to begin with.
http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=85007977
I was banned, simply for stating one week that over half of his "hits" that he counted on Monday, opened at or near the HOD, so unless he pre-loaded, there wasn't much money to be made. Then he talked about what he was going to do to my mother and girlfriend via PM (and later posted to his board, and thus, Twitter as well), I reported him, got him banned for 3 days, and he weaseled his way out of it <2 hours later.
SPY $156.11
Thanks. I know, I shouldn't go against the market, but as long as other trades are able to counter any losses I may incur on VXX, I will continue to take my chances, just to be sure I catch the minor pullback, when it happens. I don't know enough about the driving forces of the market as a whole to make any prediction on where it is headed, and appreciate your thoughts and experience.
Best of luck to you (not that you need it), and hopefully my continued attempts to catch a VIX/VXX/UVXY spike don't hurt too badly.
VXX has been a pain, not wanting to miss out, but every bit of resistance on the S&P 500 being broken, and VXX pushing lower. Last week, I spent Thursday and Friday accumulating March $22 calls, ended up with 40 of them by the end of the day Friday, and thankfully, took the 15% loss just before the close.
Back in this week, although much less (for now). 5 VXX $21 calls for the week, and 5 UVXY $9 calls, just waiting for a bit of a spike, and hoping we see a red day at some point this week, 7 green days in a row on the S&P, and 9 of the last 10, so something has got to give soon, or we'll keep losing.
Another AAPL oops!
2013-03-11 11:23:02 Filled AAPL AAPL Mar 13 435.00 Call Buy To Open 2 $2.81
2013-03-11 12:33:39 Filled AAPL AAPL Mar 13 435.00 Call Sell To Close -2 $3.00
Got impatient, after it went against me nearly 20%, and got out with the small gain. A few hours later, it peaked over $8.
I have a few I'm looking at for a pullback from recent highs.
CX - Mar '13 $12 Puts & Apr '13 $11 Puts ($0.23 & $0.20 respectively, at close)
EXP - Mar '13 $70 Puts ($0.75 at close)
FBHS - Mar '13 $35 Puts & Apr '13 $35 Puts ($0.25 & $0.95 respectively, at close)
HD - Mar '13 $70 Puts & Apr '13 $70 Puts ($0.28 & $1.10 respectively, at close)
WCC - Mar '13 $75 Puts ($0.40 at close)
All pretty risky, hence some of the April puts as well, but they all seem to be in a channel to some degree, and were way up in the last week with the market. I am probably wrong about them all, and appreciate any input any of you pros might have.
Anybody watching EXP for a pullback next week? Seems to be holding in an upward channel for many months now, and we seem to be nearing the top of the channel, around the $72 mark. Just wondering if anyone has been looking at it, as I picked up a few $70 puts for next week, today.
AAPL ... oops. Sold just before the pop up to $430.
2013-03-07 08:59:51 Filled AAPL AAPL 8 Mar 13 (W) 425.00 Call Buy To Open 1 $2.57
2013-03-07 09:50:38 Filled AAPL AAPL 8 Mar 13 (W) 425.00 Call Sell To Close -1 $3.20
PBR, probably could have had a double on top of the gain I already made. Oh well, such is life, and making some money is better than trying to make it all, and losing.
Thanks!
In order to preserve the great day that I had, I sold my other positions way too early, and had I waited, I could have been looking at a $4k day, but I am more than happy with the day I had. I sold my PAY $22 calls from $0.10 at $0.15 as it didn't gap enough to make much, and I wasn't sure it would continue upward, and took a lost on my UVXY calls from $1.05 to $0.95. In hindsight, I probably shouldn't have sold the PAY calls, as it was a very small position, and would barely have made a dent in the day's gains, but UVXY, I didn't want to run the risk of the market going further against me, and wiping out half of the larger position that I held.
$4k would have been amazing, but I'm sure we would all settle for $2400, if we had to.