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McLaren before market opened -
http://www.cnbc.com/id/15840232?video=926270242&play=1
-g-
my thoughts below -
take a look at SDS pattern . . .
fascinating read for after the market closes -
this post might be as good a contrarian indicator as a Softechie "timber" - ;)
The End of Wall Streets Boom
. . . Eisman wasn’t, in short, an analyst with a sunny disposition who expected the best of his fellow financial man and the companies he created. “You have to understand,” Eisman says in his defense, “I did subprime first. I lived with the worst first. These guys lied to infinity. What I learned from that experience was that Wall Street didn’t give a shit what it sold.” . . .
. . . He left accounting in the middle of the internet boom to become a research analyst, looking at companies that made subprime loans. “I was the only guy I knew covering companies that were all going to go bust,” he says. “I saw how the sausage was made in the economy, and it was really freaky.” . . .
. . . In Bakersfield, California, a Mexican strawberry picker with an income of $14,000 and no English was lent every penny he needed to buy a house for $720,000. . .
http://www.portfolio.com/news-markets/national-news/portfolio/2008/11/11/The-End-of-Wall-Streets-Boom#page3
btw -
I went back thru the spy history, looking for gaps on the daily chart (not intraday) that could be filled. I do believe that gaps tend to get filled when momentum gets going. -g-
The open gaps I found are:
from 03-12(13)-03 between 81.10 / 81.53
from 04-28(29)-97 between 77.81 / 78.34
from 10-10(11)-02 low 77.07
from 11-04(05)-96 between 71.06 / 71.28
from 09-12(13)-96 between 67.73 / 68.13
The next minor gap is in the 45's but I didn't want to go there . .
that's around the number we are looking for . . . .
remember this question I asked you?
http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=33341260
kudos to Meredith Whitney -
C now in single digits -
barney franks is going to speak soon . . . .
spoke several hours ago - it was on cnbc
Paulson: bailout program won't purchase troubled assets; focus remains on financial markets
http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/081112/financial_meltdown.html
ok, thanks again.
when is that price set and does it change very much during the month? I last asked you on 11-07 and the spx is close to 100 points lower now.
I'm just trying to understand, is all %-{
edit -
oh - found this max pain calculator -
it shows spy mp at 69! -ggg-
http://www.optionpain.com/MaxPain/Max-Pain-CBOE.php
hi aj-
do those max pain #'s look the same as they did on Nov 7?
(960)
someone in another room posted front month contract as
SPX Central Pivot Price: 1030
SPX Minimum Difference Price: 1060
$mdp=6,140,187, 648 6,057,055,232
$cpp=4,247,045, 632 7,697,451,008
from Mauldin's When the Chickens Come Home to Roost
. . . . . Secondly, de-leveraging has a long way to run yet, not so much in the hedge fund community where I suspect that much of the damage will be behind us once we pass the next major redemption hurdle on 31st December, but in society more broadly. Governments, banks, (some but not all) companies and, most importantly, the majority of households are more leveraged than good is. I have borrowed Chart 7 below from BCA Research, and it shows total US bank loans as a percentage of US GDP. Unfortunately, the picture would be much the same for many of the European countries. We are now facing a major de-leveraging cycle and it will suppress economic growth and put a lid on the stock market for years to come.
http://www.investorsinsight.com/blogs/john_mauldins_outside_the_box/archive/2008/11/10/when-the-chickens-come-home-to-roost.aspx
the vix will probably kiss back the resistence line up to about 72ish over the next week or so (maybe) . . .
aj, is the vix forming bull flag (over the past 3 days)?
JNJ's 1999 lows (actually, it's hard to tell on that chart I posted but the low was 3-10-2000) was 33.06
JNJ is (right now) 5.36% of the djia.
wow.
#1. JNJ
#2. QQQQ
aj,
what is your opinion of these monthly charts?
I removed names and prices but I know you will find out what they are -g-
yeah - they are great to trade off of - ;)
p&f with a 2-box range (which is not the traditional view, btw) forecasts GS with a Bearish Price Obj. (Revised)
to -
ta-da (drum roll please)-g-
v
v
v
v
v
v
v
v
v
v
v
v
v
v
v
v
v
v
v
6.00
http://stockcharts.com/webcgi/Pnf.asp?S=GS&Y=U&B=2&N=A&C=2
Meredith Whitney was on CNBC 11/05/08. Here are some of her comments:
Financials and Economy are so far off the tracks right now....
Where are we in the Financial Sector?
We are in a new part of the cycle, going forward, there will be contraction in the overall mortgage market - credit card lines are going to shrink, credit will be taken away from companies, we've never seen this before, also we have an economy that is not doing good right now. Earnings estimates on Wall Street are still to high.
How much is priced in?
Citigroup ( C ), Wells Fargo ( WFC ), Bank of America ( BAC ), JP Morgan ( JPM ), I think these companies still have further down to go, we are in for a rude awakening, I see a slow grind down for these stocks. I think Citigroup goes into the single digits. The stock prices in the financial sector are still way to high, wait for lower prices.
http://www.cnbc. com/id/15840232? video=920170651&play=1
==========================
Amid new evidence of a darkening economic picture, Goldman Sachs (GS: 77.78, -2.94, -3.64%) now forecasts that the economy will sharply contract this quarter and in the first quarter of 2009, resulting in the highest unemployment rate in more than two decades. As a result of the worsening economic picture, Goldman predicts the Federal Open Market Committee will be forced to cut interest rates by another 0.5 percentage point to the lowest level since the 1950s. . . .
. . . . To fight this gloomy economic picture the Fed will likely cut the federal funds rate to 0.5% at its next meeting on December 16, “if not before,” Goldman predicted.
http://www.foxbusin ess.com/story/ markets/economy/ goldman-issues- sobering- economic- forecast/
aj,thanks for the
what do you think of GS?
thankie
aj - do you have any max pain #'s?
is that the 14th or 21st?
a cramped ramp . . .
there is more -
http://www.carolinajournal.com/articles/display_story.html?id=5081
Mandating Equality
Ghilarducci’s plan first appeared in a paper for the Economic Policy Institute: Agenda for Shared Prosperity on Nov. 20, 2007, in which she said GRAs will rescue the flawed American retirement income system (www.sharedprosperity.org/bp204/bp204.pdf).
The current retirement system, Ghilarducci said, “exacerbates income and wealth inequalities” because tax breaks for voluntary retirement accounts are “skewed to the wealthy because it is easier for them to save, and because they receive bigger tax breaks when they do.”
wow!
that was quite succinct and accurate.
do you know where the spx will be on Nov. 19th?
LG - check your mail @ your chartologist.com address . . .
"Maximum effort yields maximum results".
hmmm- so that's my problem! -g-
sounds like you have your priorities in order . . . .
hi aj-
Recently, I've been looking for any McLaren updates posted around the hallowed trading rooms but haven't found any, until today.
His read is much like what you suggested to me back around 10 days ago.
If you ever start a for-pay service, I might be obliged to join -g-
http://www.cnbc.com/id/15840232?video=902571220&play=1
I'll get back at 'cha soon, LG - gotta run . . .
aj, could you check your p-mail on SI please?
aj,
per your Friday comments to opie -
Well, the 1929 crash pattern would have us hit about 815 SPX today, close at about 850, then move up to back-test 960 on Mon/Tues.
http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=32776505
"Consolidation days" indicate (to me) a pause then continuance of the up move. Where does that tie into your comment to opie?
Some traders I follow think we have retest of bottom (maybe a couple of retests), a choppy move up towards April, then the unimaginable happens . . . .
from yesterday -
Russell's bad year gets worse
Recent bull convert concedes bear market; advises cash, T-bills
Already, a September to remember. And the letters fear it may get more memorable.
Richard Russell wrote Wednesday night in his Dow Theory Letters: "Sadly, I must report that the Dow closed today down 449 points at 10609.66 -- a tragic close. This takes the Dow below 10,725, which is the halfway level of the entire rise from the Dow 2002 low to the 2007 Dow high. The great stock market balance has finally tipped over to the downside, and the extent of the potential market losses ahead are now unknown. I was hoping that the downside of the Dow could be confined to the area above 10,725, but this was not to be. I now urge subscribers to move as far as possible into cash and T-bills with a balance against catastrophe via gold coins."
Russell isn't joking. He really must be sad about this.
Just over a year ago, he finally gave up on his longstanding bearishness and conceded a primary bull market was under way.
Now his call looks like a classic whipsaw. This legendary veteran, whose long-term timing record is still excellent according to the Hulbert Financial Digest, has had a rotten year, compounded by recent health problems.
For the record, the HFD's No. 2 performer over the year to date, Peter Eliades of Stockmarket Cycles, recently pointed to a Dow close below 10,790. This would confirm his four-year "preliminary projection" of a decline to at least 8,847.
See Sept. 11 column
Eliades got his confirmation on Wednesday but, in his leisurely fashion, did not update his telephone hotline.
Ironically, one long-time superbear doesn't seem to be benefiting much from the market break.
Martin Weiss of Safe Money Report has been predicting a financial system crash for years.
And over past 12 months, through the end of August, Safe Money is outperforming the market -- just. The letter is down just 1.10% by Hulbert Financial Digest count, vs. negative 10.7% for the dividend-reinvested Dow Jones Wilshire 5000.
Of course we won't know the full effect of this scintillating September for a couple more weeks. But judging by the year to date, though, Safe Money may not be benefiting much.
In fact, it's losing ground. The letter is down 8.5% since Jan. 1, vs. negative 10.3% for the total return DJ-Wilshire 5000.
Still slightly ahead of the market. But not the payday that fans must have expected for enduring quite a lot of pain. Over the past five years, for example, Safe Money has lost negative 1.06% annualized, vs. a 7.85% annualized gain for the total return DJ-Wilshire 5000.
Wednesday, Safe Money put out a cheerful special alert arguing forcefully that "this contagion is nowhere near over . . ."
It urged subscribers: "With the exception of the special situations recommended by Weiss publications or affiliates, get the heck out of the stock market! Then, place the proceeds into Treasury bills or a Treasury-only money market fund."
It also said subscribers should be "fully loaded" with inverse Exchange Traded Funds, "especially designed to surge when stocks fall."
Two specific Safe Money recommendations:
ProShares UltraShort Financials. (SKF), designed to rise 20% for every 10% decline in the Dow Jones U.S. Financials Index, which is comprised of major brokerage, bank and insurance stocks
ProShares UltraShort Cons Svcs. (SCC) , designed to rise 20% for every 10% decline in the Dow Jones U.S. Consumer Services Index, which is primarily in the retail, media and travel and leisure sectors.
There may be something wrong with Weiss' execution. But you get the concept.
http://www.marketwatch.com/News/Story/russells-bad-year-gets-worse/story.aspx?guid=%7BCE7AFBE1%2DB79C%2D4C99%2DBA60%2D05E952A01EBA%7D
already have that - it's lumpy . . . .
thanks aj -
where does one put their $$?
hi aj -
don't markets eventually turn on "historic events"? %)
BREAKING NEWS on Marketwatch -
WaMu's board is ousting CEO Killinger amid heavy mortgage-related losses. Alan Fishman, Meridian Capital's chairman, will succeed him.
==========================================
wrt to fre and fnm -
NEW YORK (MarketWatch) -- Shares of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac will likely drop sharply when they resume trading after the U.S. government took control of the beleaguered mortgage giants, but the financial sector could now begin to stabilize, Wall Street analysts said Sunday. . . .
"This is a historic event," said Brian Gardner, senior vice president at Washington Research. "It could be the biggest potential government bailout of a generation, much bigger than the savings and loan crises of the 1980s."
http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/fannie-freddie-seen-falling-after/story.aspx?guid=%7BED11E0AE%2D3724%2D4D5B%2DA718%2D895E87FC9373%7D
==============================================
he said end of summer - not end of May
It’s started. Look for new all-time highs before the end of this summer, maybe even a DJIA above 15,000. It’s Jupiter’s time coming up, and Jupiter is the cosmic Santa Claus.
http://www.mmacycles.com/weekly-preview/mma-comments-for-the-week/comments-for-the-week-beginning-may-5,-2008/
thanx aj -
I believe I did see you say that or something similar lately -
hard to keep up when I can't read here everyday. I haven't had much time to study charts either -
thanx again . . .
ah - but what happens after that? new highs, new lows, double top?
I'm not asking for much . . . . ;)
hi aj -
you said "We should be down into Wednesday afternoon, then up into the Fed next week."
What is your scenario after that? New lows?
Sorry to ask you but I haven't been around and didn't see your latest views.