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PRAA:
Nice decisive breakout and looking to make new 52 wk. high.
Still with you on ERES. Just about healed from knife catching exercise the other day.
Long ELAB from this morning....cheap relative to growth, high short interest and P/C, stock has been cut in half on no news. We'll see...
>>> A longtime gold bull explains why he thinks a dollar collapse is inevitable
Because of the status of the dollar as the world's reserve currency and the mountain of dollars in Japan and China, a dollar collapse is not only not inevitable, it is impossible. The dollar will continue to grind slowly lower as long as there is this big trade deficit. At the end of the day, the trade problem will be resolved by much higher interest rates....not because the Fed says so, but because the bond market will say so.
Other currencies are not especially attractive alternatives. The only thing the euro has going for it is that it is not the dollar <bg>.
eResearchTechnology, Inc. Hosts Conference Call to Update Third Quarter Outlook on October 1, 2004
Thu 4:35pm - PR Newswire
I also bought on the dip, and don't like the sound of this...maybe we'll get lucky and they'll reaffirm <gg>
Bill Gross commentary on inflation "con job", in case it hasn't been posted yet:
http://www.pimco.com/LeftNav/Late+Breaking+Commentary/IO/2004/IO_Oct_2004.htm
Looking to short DDS as well, one of only 8 stocks that shows up on my short quant screen. Looking for a little market bounce first.
All that you say is true, plus Carew gets extra points for being able to even hit the ball with that weird stance of his.
SCHL:
Nice breakout of inverse H&S and 200-SMA. Good earnings just reported. Volume is lacking so far, though.
http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.web?c=schl,uu[r,a]dacayyay[pb50!b200][vc60][iUb14!Lp14,3,3!Ll1...
It won't have any impact on the indices or ETF's, but it will have a major impact on the individual stocks within the index. Lower float stocks will be sold by index funds and ETF funds on the day of the change, and arbs will pre-sell (sell short) them shortly before then. The lengthy transition may help, but maybe not much. WMT will be the most negatively affected, since so much of the stock is still held by the Walton family. MSFT will also be hard hit.
Someone correct me if I'm mistaken, but I think the author is wrong about ETF shares affecting the float. I believe only closely held shares (by insiders) are excluded.
There may be some additional one-time transaction costs to ETF holders, as he says. This should be less of a problem for the QQQ than the SPY, as transaction costs have traditionally been capped at the dividend rate, and dividends on the QQQ are negligable anyway.
The FNM drama is ridiculous, and a total waste of taxpayer money. It's all about big PAC money, with FNM and it's Democratic buddies on one side, and C, BAC, AIG, and JPM (all of whom want to see FNM rot in hell so they can grab a piece of this huge and lucrative market) on the other. Both camps contribute many millions to the Washington PAC scene.
Notice that nobody is blaming FNM's auditor, E&Y? That's because FNM did nothing illegal or un-FASB-like. Yes, of course they smooth earnings (by buying and selling their own debt - perfectly legal)...but so does everyone else. Yes, the huge mountain of mortgage debt out there threatens the financial system. But this is not uniquely a FNM problem, or even a mortgage problem. In fact FNM actually reduces risk in the system, because at last they attempt to match assets and liabilities while others do not.
FNM's political enemies have been frantically searching for years for some dirt to pin on the company. If this is the best they can do, it must be a pretty clean story. This will all end with FNM agreeing to changes in the way it accounts for earnings, in effect creating a separate set of rules for FNM (but will not affect cash flow), and perhaps paying a fine, much like the manufactured housing sideshow OFHEO just finished conducting.
The funniest part of this whole story is that OFHEO has been going to ridiculous lengths to attack FNM, to show that they are not soft on FNM and FRE as some had claimed, and to make sure that they (OFHEO) are not legislated out of existence. But today, Sen. Richard Shelby said that this charge shows exactly why OFHEO is not capable of regulating the GSE's! LOL. You couldn't make this stuff up!
JMO, and I have no current position in FNM, nor do I work for them, etc....just tired of the politics as usual. I haven't been this upset since the Martha Stewart trial!
Meanwhile, EK continues to move higher. Great read on that one.
CETV
http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.web?c=CETV,uu[r,a]wacayyay[pb50!b200][vc60][iUb14!Lp14,3,3!Ll1...
Stock has been an absolute monster. Eastern Europe is still under the radar of most investors, but has some of the best growth dynamics in the world. These guys have a dominant position in broadcasting, with limited competition.
PVN:
http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.web?c=PVN,uu[r,a]wacayyay[de][pb50!b200][vc60][iUb14!Lp14,3,3!...
Stock has been in a steady uptrend, and today reported very strong August credit quality and loan growth numbers. Sentiment is negative, with a short interest ratio of 4.5, put/call highest in the past year (per Shaeffer's), and tepid sell side support. Valuation is in line with its peer group, but estimates, although rising, are likely still too low.
Daily and weekly candles suggest the stock is ripe for a pullback, but I have been long for awhile, and expect this stock to grind its way higher. Not for the faint of heart.
Thanks, I hadn't seen that...explains why the stock backed off.
For all the NFI fans out there:
Just reported August loan production:
http://ir.novastarmortgage.com/phoenix.zhtml?c=84748&p=irol-SECText&TEXT=aHR0cDovL2NjYm4uMTB...
Looks like pretty strong numbers, and the market seems to like it.
Paul,
I have tried to use IWM on several occasions to hedge my small cap longs, but have been unable to borrow the stock...which is very surprising given the liquidity you mentioned. Have you ever tried to short IWM and have you had this problem, or is it just my broker? TIA.
BW
Borrowing and spending is a rational response to an environment of negative real interest rates and accelerating inflation. Don't blame the borrowers. The blame lies with those who created this environment. The geniuses at the Fed think they have discovered the proverbial free lunch. Ever growing mountains of debt sustain the economy. Inflation is seen as a good thing, because we create inflationary asset bubbles that form the basis for even more borrowing. As a bonus, we get to stiff the Japanese and Chinese by paying back those loans with cheaper dollars.
The world will be living with the inflationary and slow-growth consequences of this reckless policy for decades to come.
And yet the 50d MA of the put/call is near the all-time highs set last month. Something strange is going on with the VXO/VXN. I'm guessing it's related to the search for "yield" - the increasing popularity of writing covered calls and puts for income that drives down option premiums and hence implied volatility.
TYC interesting here:
http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.web?c=tyc,uu[e,a]waclyyay[df][pb50!b200][vc60][iub14!lp14,3,3!...
200 wma proving to be very tough resistance, but strong support just below at 30. I am betting up with a LT target much higher, and a mental stop just below 30 on a closing basis.
Believe me, some people were expecting the revenue cut to be much worse.
Stock halted because market in shock it was not a total disaster! <g>
Not horrible like INTC....may be good news.
Will,
I've never understood the argument that cutting taxes leads to more debt. The tax "revenues" have to come from somewhere. And that money left in the private sector is just as likely (some would say more likely) to be applied to debt reduction as money sent to Washington. In effect, isn't raising taxes to pay off the national debt just shifting debt from the public to the private sector (assuming the additional taxes are not spent first)?
Here's a pretty good demographics site (from the CIA):
http://www.odci.gov/cia/publications/factbook/geos/it.html
Comparing China to the US, the numbers are:
% of population 0-14: 22.3 vs. 20.8
fertility rate: 1.69 vs. 2.07
migration rate: -.4 vs. 3.41
median age: 31.8 vs. 36.0
So the US has a slightly older population, but higher population growth, which is what counts for GDP growth. Given the dynamics of fertility rates, the Chinese population will age faster than the US.
Compare the US to Italy (many of the other industrializd European countries look like Italy), where the numbers are:
14.0%
1.27
2.07
41.4
That's what I meant by the US looking comparatively good.
No argument about the flood of Chinese workers entering their job market, and this is the reason why they should continue to grow at high rates. I was just trying to make the point that their demographic profile is not that great....kind of like the US without the population growth.
I don't know much about today's immigrants to the US. But I lean toward immigration being a positive. My grandparents were poor and uneducated when they arrived here, but they and people like them still managed to contribute.
Joe,
I agree with you that China will have superior growth for a long time because they are coming from such a low GDP per capita base. But they have surprisingly bad demographics (due I think to institutionalized birth control).
The U.S. actually looks pretty good demographicly vs. most industrialized nations, because of immigration and the high birth rate of recent immigrants.
gottfried,
1. INTC said last night that demand weakness appeared suddenly in the last half of August, so we should expect some deterioration in device the reported shipment numbers in the months ahead.
2. Just looking at your charts, it is crystal clear that the ratio of equipment bookings to device shipments is very low, especially for what some people think is the peak of the cycle. This says 2 things to me. First, that equipment companies are in better shape than device companies looking forward. And second, that this is probably not a cycle peak, because semiconductor companies have not overspent yet, and capacity and pricing are likely to remain firm until this happens. What is your opinion? TIA.
No, all semis down big on INTC disaster
Sounds plausible, but OTOH maybe the market surprises everyone and the INTC update becomes a non-event. This is a very back-ended quarter, and no matter what they say, the quarter will come down to what happens in September....which, of course, hasn't happened yet. We'll find out soon enough.
Z, I know COO is no longer in your core, but do you have any thoughts on it here post the earnings spike? I sold the new high today and am looking to reposition. TIA.
Everybody knows the INTC update will not be great. But nobody knows how the stock will react. I'm guessing positively, because I don't think the news will be as bad as some expect...I'd say mixed rather than bad. Look for desktops to be weak, and everything else to be about on plan. The one thing that could tank the stock is if they say something negative about inventories, but I'm not expecting that on a mid-quarter update. There will be some questions on this, but they probably won't respond.
COO up big and on break out watch after reporting good earnings last night.
Very nice call. I did some work on it after you mentioned it and bought some, so thanks. Do you have a price target?
Nope, also $10, apparently:
http://www.circuitcity.com/detail.jsp?c=1&b=g&u=c&catoid=-10265&qp=0412041104112&...
Unbelieveable, isn't it? Again, this is 80211.b, but mine works just fine. The newer protocol is about 5x faster.
Actually even less, if you're willing to settle for the "older" 802.11b technology. I just bought a new router for $10 ($50 less $40 rebate)...they're giving the stuff away - can't be good for the likes of NTGR.
Agree. Same with INTC...held up well today after some negative analyst commentary. The reaction to INTC's mid-quarter update next Thursday should be interesting.
There is widespread negative sentiment toward the group, and the stocks do look washed out. Oddly, short positions and put/call ratios are low, but maybe that won't matter.
Happening now:
http://www.novellus.com/
Bad news, guiding down. More bad news coming in semis. Stock taking it well, though.
PRAA
http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.web?c=PRAA,uu[r,a]wacayyay[pb50!b200][vc60][iUb14!Lp14,3,3!Ll1...
What is this, a recent breakout of a symmetrical triangle or a pending breakout of an ascending triangle with resistance in the $30 area? Whatever it is, I like it. I also like the fundies, so I bought some.
Gold starting to act well despite dollar firmness (eom).
Piper Jaffray on QLGC this morning:
"Stars Lining Up: Re-instituting coverage with a buy and $30 price target"
Paul, is there a public source for historical short interest ratios (say, over the past year)? TIA.