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It seems the last bear was much harder on holding short positions. This one way, rapid decline is shocking.
I think I capitulated on AAPL at 12 bucks.
Posted by: Gizmo Date: Wednesday, July 17, 2002 5:54:26 PM
In reply to: Zeev Hed who wrote msg# 4567 Post # of 604537
Got AAPL @ 15.50. Do you have a target in mind for this rally? Looking at the chart I see potential to 17, 18.50, and 20. Only keeping this one for a trade until the next leg down.
Gizmo
Don't know where this POS is going but switching from 100% bond fund to 100% Spx index fund at close.
Per CSpan the bill was rejected by the house 228-205.
Lows for what time frame AJ?
Goodbye friend. You will be missed.
frenchee, bidding 136 on spy. I plan to stop it at 135 if the buy gets hit. Bought some JAHYX in the retirement acct., should be yielding close to 9% with reasonable risk.
Frenchee, Took of my SPY trade @ 152.45. All cash.
Monthly SPX Chart. No damage to trend.
Quarterly
Entered 1/3 long SPY @ 140, the long awaited 10% correction. Remember my last post to you? http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.asp?message_id=17973490
LOL....
http://sharp.bu.edu/~slehar/fourier/fourier.html
Perhaps I have found the wrong definition?
After orderly dive do you have recovery to test or exceed this years highs?
Been lurking a little. I've a simple plan that doesn't require much thought. When/if the Spx corrects 10% from it's most recent high, go long 1/3. 20% another 1/3, and finally 30% from it's most recent high gets me fully invested for the longer term.
In the meanwhile 5.05% compound interest is just fine.
http://www.hsbcdirect.com/1/2/1/offer?code=C01OS227AS&HSBC_ad=HBUS_C01OS227AS&HSBC_au=1&...
Could fuel inflation in the U.S. by weakening the Chinese economy and reducing the flood of cheap goods.
http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/china-hikes-rates-again-slow/story.aspx?guid=%7B162A655E%2DF01...
China raises interest rates third time in a year
Last Update: 11:35 AM ET Mar 17, 2007
CHICAGO (MarketWatch) -- China's central bank is raising interest rates for the third time in less than a year to tighten up credit and investment to keep the world's fourth-largest economy on an even keel, Reuters reported Saturday.
'In light of the data over the past few days, this isn't the slightest bit of a surprise.'
— Jim O'Neill, Goldman Sachs
As of Sunday, the People's Bank of China's one-year yuan lending and deposit rates would edge up 0.27 percentage point apiece, bringing the one-year deposit rate to 2.79 percent and the lending rate to 6.39 percent.
"The rate increase is conducive to the reasonable growth of credit and investment, to stabilizing prices, to the stable operation of the financial system, to balancing growth and improving the structure of the economy, and to promoting the healthy but rapid development of the economy," the central bank said in an online statement.
The latest increase follows a boost of lending rates on April 27 of 2006, along with a rise in both in August. Banks' required reserves have also been raised five times since June to soak up liquidity generated by a balance-of-payments surplus, Reuters noted.
Economists had expected the central bank to make a move after strong February data showed a surge in credit, expanded factory output factories and 50% jump in exports form the year-ago period.
Banks put 981.4 billion yuan ($127 billion) worth of paper on the street in the first two months of this year, the same as 30 percent of all yuan credit offered in 2006.
"In light of the data over the past few days, this isn't the slightest bit of a surprise," Jim O'Neill, chief global economist at Goldman Sachs, told Reuters.
11/29/2006 @10.15 AM
The Secular Stock Market Trend
Steve Saville
http://www.gold-eagle.com/editorials_04/milhouse061504.html
I, for one, would be happy to see stocks at investment vs trading valuations.
Looks like Spx p/e at 10 and below does the trick for long term buyers.
Chart source available in follow up post.
Must have been saved in browser memory try it again.
Chart 1966-1982 for reader reference.
We still need to have a period of excessive low valuation, which 2002 lows did not provide.
In this decade?
we haven't even had a 10% correction yet
Seems like pre bubble we had one every year.
Well, I'm with you but how come the Dow is near an all time high and S&P at/near 5 year highs?
The Tran not rallying well out of the summer lows also says more weakness than the S&P/Naz are pricing in.
Considering the cratering in fuel prices one would believe that if this were a new bull leg transports would be flying in anticipation of increased activity.
But alas, all the rationalizing did not save me from being squeezed out of shorts.
Oh well, nobody ever said markets were rational. It truly is more about fear and greed.
Somebodies wrong here in a big way. Bonds rallying as if pricing in more economic weakness than stocks are factoring in.
Ditto commodities, selling off as if demand will plummet.
As you know, I was stopped out of short in the brokerage account.
My view is that the market is overvalued and not correctly anticipating the economic weakness the Fed is determined to precipitate. Once bitten, I'll not reshort, but instead wait for a long term buy at sub 1400 Ndx, 1060 Spx.
The market may or may not accomodate my trigger price. Not terribly concerned either way as risk/worry free cash options are north of 5%.
Wild ride.....,going nowhere.
Sentiment Charts. Bears increased to 38%. Bulls increased to 48%. Take away is bearishness still to high to support sustained selling.
http://www.sentimentrader.com/subscriber/charts/WEEKLY/SURVEY_AAII_BULLS.htm
http://www.sentimentrader.com/subscriber/charts/WEEKLY/SURVEY_AAII_BEARS.htm
Negative Divergence on Nahl.
Nahl flat while Ndx flies higher. Not sure what it means but IMO can't be good. BTW I was stopped out Wed. on short. A loss I don't care to repeat so I'm a bit gunshy short term.
I gave up on mine and in cash. Now you get your red candle.
Take another look Poker.
http://www.investorshub.com/boards/read_msg.asp?message_id=13216564
Now that is an excellent observation.
I got a daily chart with various CCI's. Maybe because I don't subscribe to StockCharts.
Here's another. Significant that this is the first monthly MACD cross since we transitioned from bear to bull. Adds fuel to the idea we are transitioning back to bear. Also significant is that Ndx was stopped by busted monthly TL at 1604.
I'm a little scared LOL. Call it healthy fear. It looks like Sept. 29's are a very good one day long.
I'm with you in that the top has been posted. Looking for 38.20 Q's next week.
We get that and I may exit the shorts and wait for confirmation. Which would be living under the 3rd wave gap (1534 Ndx) and the quarterly TL.
Couple more you've probably seen before and of LT nature. Tough getting a short term read right here.
No help short term but rising wedge breakdown remains problematic long term.
Quarterly chart needs to make a rebreak of lower TL to keep bear case intact. Minimum needs retest at somewhere between 1542 - 1552. Regardless I think the breach is significant long term.
A big difference is the volume pattern. I suppose we can only guess what the huge selling will mean for future prices.
No help short term but rising wedge breakdown remains problematic long term.
Quarterly chart needs to make a rebreak of lower TL to keep bear case intact. Minimum needs retest at somewhere between 1542 - 1552. Regardless I think the breach is significant long term.
Combined Sept/Oct. years past.
2003
2004
2005
Septembers past. Declines were sharp and fast. Shorts should exit before end of month strength to reposition for possible further Oct. weakness. The Sept. selloffs are supposedly caused by institutions squaring their books ahead of fiscal year finish on Sept 30.
Septembers past. Declines were sharp and fast. Shorts should exit before end of month strength to reposition for possible further Oct. weakness. The Sept. selloffs are supposedly caused by institutions squaring their books ahead of fiscal year finish on Sept 30.
No need to go get Cot data.
This link provides free charts on just about everything thats traded. http://www.softwarenorth.com/trading/commitmentscurrent/
Header Item?
For this board, imo the only ones of any value, are ES, SP, NQ. Analysis is difficult and limited in usefulness.
Trying not to overanalyze I pay attention to changes and trend in the bullish%. IMO large specs can be considered hedge funds.