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"Yep,all indicators going the right way and looking to test .0018 next imo"
That would be great! At one time I had 5,000,000 of WOAM and then they did a 1 for 10 reverse split on me. A lesson I will soon not forget is do not ride a rev. It dropped straight down to it's pre rev price. Win some lose some! :)
Great chart BOI. It just shows me how far this market could still go down. Some signs of being oversold and some day the Bear will end. I just hope the Gov does not exacerbate the problem as they do with everything else!
"WOAM"
Somthin goin on with it fo sure. Did you see the volume?
Yea, Bull run, that's it. :)
We are in a Bear Mkt you know.
I don't blame you. We are in a bear market!!! A time to buy will come but not right away.
It would be interesting to see but I doubt it would last. We are in a bear trend!
Jim
You said:
"It seems in reading current and former posts that very few actually follow the AIM method as it is written. Everyone seems to tweek it to fit their own desires. So my question is: if this system is actually good why don't users follow it?"
Part of the problem is not knowing the future. If you knew the future you would know when to be stingy on the cash and wait to buy at a better price or sell when the price is best. But if you knew the future then you wouldn't need AIM at all.
One problem that users run into and why they tweak the method is running out of cash. I think the best way to avoid this is to do a few aim stocks and keep them fairly conservative in nature. If the issues are wild a big drop can use up cash very quickly. This market would have been devastating to many AIM users even by the book. One can tweak AIM to get better gains but this can cost you a lot in a major drop.
Sorry for abandoning this site but it was mainly because of a lack of interest in AIM RE-Bal as well as it's complexity.
Jibes
AIMster.
So, if your 1/6th or 1/5th calculation based on a six month variance might be ideal for an individual stock, would ETF's/funds benefit from a faster oscillation of say a three-month interval, given that they might not move up-and-down as much in six months?
That would work (3Mo.) but the danger is that if the ETF makes a big move you will be making a big sale or buy on the first trigger out of the trading zone. It is worth doing some back testing though and I would tend to favor 1/5th for the divisor rather than 1/6th. In my use 1/6th makes for a lot of trading.
I have not tested it with AIM yet so I could not say how it would work. It's only a concept at this stage. I am using it with DDCA however and it does work. It's so new though, I haven't fully learned how to optomize it yet, but I'm getting closer.
Jibes
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Tom.
I don't know if the formula I posted would take into account Safe (even though I propose using it for Safe).
I divided the range by 6 but to allow for Safe in the hold zone perhaps dividing by 5 would give a bit more desirable results.
I do think using it for what you said would work because when you'd always be taking the last 6 months it would self adjust for any significant changes in the trend.
Jibes
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Tom.
Is the hold zone the "dead" area between the high and low min buy and sell?
Jibes
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AIMster
What are the other acronyms and the Free shares ideas that you mention?
Sorry about that, I should have a bit more clear.
These are investment ideas described at my website:
http://homepage.mac.com/bondiblueone/trendseeker/index.html
These are my own inventions. I do not advocate using any of these but only at your own risk.
Jibes
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Please, come hear my music:
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Everyone.
Lately I have been playing music and doing other things as well as testing my different approaches to the market and so I've been quite busy. In the mean time I have come to the conclusion that good old AIM is the best overall. I still do like Free Shares, DDCA and PPXO just fine but in the long run AIM is probably the best. overall.
BTW, I can not trade using charts or any timing methods {like PPXO). I have found out the hard way (through trial and error) that I do not have the temperament for it. That is why AIM or DDCA are the best for me. Right now I am using DDCA and employing a new technique to determine how much to buy and sell based on volatility. It's all quite new and I have only been testing and using it for the last 2 Months.
It works quite well and I wanted to share it with all of you. This is how it's done:
For a 6 Mo. period I find the high and low price (Using a chart). This then is the Range.
I then divide the range by 6 to get a 6th part of it.
I then find the mean of the range (by adding the high and low and divide that by 2).
Next I divide the 1/6th part by the mean price.
This then gives me a number that is a percentage. I use this percentage for the trading range for DDCA PPTM. Simple!
In other words if the percentage is 7% (+/-7%) I use this as my min up or down move to buy or sell. It does work quite well because the swings are well suited to the price range for the 6 Mo. period. The 6 Mo. period is updated when ever a traansaction takes place.
Now, here is the deal; I would think that if I were to take that % and apply it to the "SAFE" in AIM instead of a fixed 10% as in the standard form of AIM it might just work.
If the %. were 7 then my safe would be 7% of the stock value or if it were 17% then of course a much larger safe would logically be called for and that would make sense because a wild stock would call for a larger safe. A blue chip might be only 3% and so a small safe would be in order.
With a normal safe being 10% I have found that 10% doesn't always work well in all situations.
If anybody would like to test this feel free. I do not have much time to do so. It does stand to reason that a smaller safe for a stodgy Blue Chip compared to a bigger safe for a more volatile issue like SIRI for example would make sense.
If this would work I would perhaps like to do AIM rather than DDCA. In my mind it seems to be a good idea but testing will be the judge!
Just some food for thought.
Jibes
TrendSeekers at:
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Please, come hear my music:
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Everyone.
I have not done anything with my board for a while. Sorry.
I have been busy playing music and doing other things as well as testing my different approaches to the market and have come to the conclusion that good old AIM is the best overall. I still do like Free Shares, DDCA and PPXO just fine but in the long run AIM is probably the best.
BTW, I can not trade using charts or any timing methods like that. I have found out the hard way through trial and error that I do not have the temperament for it. That is why AIM or DDCA are the best for me. Right now I am using DDCA and employing a technique to determine how much to buy and sell based on volatility. It's all quite new but I have been testing it far the last 2 Months.
This is how it's done:
For a 6 Mo. period I find the high and low price (Using a chart). This then is the Range.
I then divide the range by 6 to get a 6th part of it.
I then find the mean of the range (by adding the high and low and divide that by 2).
Next I divide the 1/6th part by the mean price.
This then gives me a number that is a percentage. I use this percentage for the trading range for DDCA PPTM. Simple!
In other words if the percentage is 7% (+/-7%) I use this as my min up or down move to buy or sell. It does work quite well because the swings are well suited to the price range for the 6 Mo. period. The 6 Mo. period is updated when ever a traansaction takes place.
Now, here is the deal; I would think that if I were to take that % and apply it to the "SAFE" in AIM instead of a fixed 10% as in the standard form of AIM it might just work.
If the %. were 7 then my safe would be 7% of the stock value or if it were 17% then of course a much larger safe would logically be called for. A blue chip might be only 3% and then a relative small safe. Remember that the normal SAFE is 10%
If anybody would like to test this feel free. I do not have much time to do so. It does stand to reason that a smaller safe for a stodgy Blue Chip compared to a more volatile issue like SIRI would make sense.
Just some food for thought.
Jibes
TrendSeekers at:
http://homepage.mac.com/bondiblueone/trendseeker/index.html
Please, come hear my music:
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Well, I for one like to eat there. Mighty good.
--------------------------------------------------------------
Jibes
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husk
I like Ameritrade (if dealing in low priced stocks) because no mater how many shares you buy the price is the same. So 100000 shares cost $11.00.
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Jibes
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Cap
I have noticed the low priced stocks on the NYSE are more likely to go BK than those on the naz. The reason, I concluded was that a NYSE stock that sold for such a low price was there for a good reason. It was in trouble. I found this out when I had started tracking a list of low priced NYSE stocks and very soon after some were filing for BK! I have followed hundreds of Nasdaq lows and a very small percentage have gone away. They were always fairly low priced anyway.
Anyway, if your going to play the low priced issues be sure to have a very diversified port.
Jibes
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Cap.
Thanks for the info.
It looks like you will get plenty of action at times so just hang in there.
Jibes
TrendSeekers at:
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Jack.
I use limit orders so it's no great feat at all. I do have to make sure I manage my open orders though and that is some bit of work, but I find time to do it.
Yes, most of the percentage drops are in the 20 to 40 percent range. I have some where I have 9 Money Blocks invested though and at $800 a block I have to be careful about getting deeper. If a golden opportunity comes up I will not hesitate however.
Jibes
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Conrad.
Bummer!
$1500 down the tubes. One consolation, only commish on the way going in! #:)
Jibes
Cap.
Thanks for the info.
Sale Price = ((M+1)T+FC)/N(1-F)
Sorry, I am dense. I cant figure the formula. The "FC" part makes no sense to me. The old "unknown factor" part I'm sure. #:)
Do you look for them to hit your min trading size and then take action or do you use limit orders set at the min order size?
BTW, How did your first tading days go? Well I hope.
Jibes
TrendSeekers at:
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Jack
Forgive me for not getting back sooner but I had to leave town for a couple.
If you don't mind, would you post a short summary of the trades that got you there. Thanks!
Sorry but that would take too long! There were a lot of trades. But here is a list of the 30 gems that did it though.
ABB, AKLM, AVAN,
CAU, CMGI, CNXT,
CRDM, CYPT, DOC,
DSLN, ENTU, FIX,
FWLRF, IRSN, ITIG,
LCCI, LOUD, MFIC,
NMNN, PQUE, SGI,
SIL, SIRI, SNUS,
TEN, TWR, UMC,
USGA, VLGC, VNWK
Today it stood at $57,807!
Nothing exceptional about the list, they just happened to be volatile enough for me to take a liking to them.
My total port consists of 44 issues. I have 23 unclaimed or potential Free Shares issues running at this time. Some of those are the same as the above list and so if they are hit they would add to the Free Share port. So, in other words I have three ports going at the same time. Free Shares, Potential Free Shares (working) and the combined total of both. I use Yahoo to keep track.
I have a big enough port where hardly a day goes by where I have either a buy, sell or both. It keeps me hoping but I love it!
Jibes
TrendSeekers at:
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To anyone who cares to listen.
Am I excited about Free Shares? Today my portfolio of only Free Shares, that is to say those that have since Nov 7th converted to Free Shares, which started at $28,000 and as of the close today hit over $56,000! All I can say is I am very pleased! I knew this would happen but I didn't think it would to this extent and in this short of time frame. Go bulls!!!!
Jibes
TrendSeekers at:
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Cap
I'm sure you know as do many others that when doing AIM by the percentage rise and fall method where one puts in limit orders at certain percentage levels from the last buy or sell, one must figure these levels from the Portfolio Control vantage and not the latest price. I made this mistake at first. This method should work great on M Caps as well as any other. What percentage level to AIM for is the other question.
Micros would be good if your broker charges a fee only for the transaction and not like others who charge a penny or some such for each share over a 1000. Ameritrade charges $11 but thats for 1 share or a million. It makes no difference. There may be others but thats the only one I am familiar with.
Jibes
TrendSeekers at:
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aim hier
The real flaw would be running out of money. This is the one big problem to be solved! This of course can be mitigated to some extent, but this is a real danger of AIM and AIM variants. Be careful out there!
Jibes
TrendSeekers at:
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Leap
Sorry about that. It was really a private message to me. I did not mean for it to get posted like that. It was a discussion comparing my "FREE SHARES" with Syncrovest. Close, but not quite the same. FREE SHARES always buys below cost average but Syncrovest not always. Other similarities / differences as well.
Jibes
TrendSeekers at:
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Scott.
If quite young I would AIM a batch of low priced stocks.
If older I would AIM a batch of low priced stocks.
If very old I would go out and have a good time!
Jibes
TrendSeekers at:
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Conrad.
Not too high. Except I bought it just before they announced BK!
if I remember right, I bought it at 1.19. $1190 down the drain.
jibes
At Free Shares I noticed that the increments of investment amounts should have been $200 instead of $100 as I originally stated. So I have made the changes to the site. $200 is more in line with what I based the model on. It's not a hard fast rule however but rather something to go by
I now have an example using XMSR with more to come.
Jibes
TrendSeekers at:
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At Free Shares I noticed that the increments of investment amounts should have been $200 instead of $100 as I originally stated. So I have made the changes to the site. $200 is more in line with what I based the model on. It's not a hard fast rule however but rather something to go by
I now have an example using XMSR with more to come.
Jibes
TrendSeekers at:
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Conrad
I do have 1000 shares of XOXO you could have. They would make great wallpaper! #:)
Jibes
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Cliffod
I have checked out Synchrovest and I see many similarities between it and Free Shares. One glaring difference is buying above average cost in SV and also selling all shares. But, it is after all a variation of DCA so it holds true to form. Maybe one could set a limit if the price were to exceed Ave Cost by X% then no buying would take place. Buying when the stock price goes way up seems to be ineffective. Of course the multiplier does limit buys very well.
I really like Syncrovest and Mr L, as you said, didn't know the full potential of what he had.
I wonder if one could marry the best of Syncrovest and Free Shares and come up with a really great thing!
I can see where your SS could be used and I will look into it.
Jibes
TrendSeekers at:
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Cliffod
I have checked out Synchrovest and I see many similarities between it and Free Shares. One glaring difference is buying above average cost in SV and also selling all shares. But, it is after all a variation of DCA so it holds true to form. Maybe one could set a limit if the price were to exceed Ave Cost by X% then no buying would take place. Buying when the stock price goes way up seems to be ineffective. Of course the multiplier does limit buys very well.
I really like Syncrovest and Mr L, as you said, didn't know the full potential of what he had.
I wonder if one could marry the best of Syncrovest and Free Shares and come up with a really great thing!
I can see where your SS could be used and I will look into it.
Jibes
TrendSeekers at:
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Jibes,
your work and thoughts are most appreciated,, keep on keepin' on! Firebird
Firebird.
Thanks! I appreciate your feedback. I hope it works as well for others as it has for me.
Jibes
TrendSeekers at:
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Thanks TF.
yes, as you said, a portfolio is scaled to your investment needs.
Shortly, I have to figure out what the ideal amount is to invest per money block and how many issues are the best for a given portfolio.
In my personal account I have allocated 181 Money Blocks and a max of 24 issues (though I have broken that rule by having 28 ). My money blocks average about $800. Through testing I have a rough idea what these numbers should be. It's very rare that a day goes by when I do not have either a buy or a sell or both. My broker is loving it!
R.O.I. will be a plus number unless the share price goes to zero!
Jibes
TrendSeekers at:
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Steve.
Thanks for the Huzzas.
I would be interested in seeing this site 'Incremental Investing' if you or anyone has the url.
Yes the $300 does seem small and 3 issues might have been better for $10,000, then the money blocks would have been larger. And really, the ave money block for my example would be around $450 since $300 is the min and $600 the max.
I have done a lot of backtesting but mostly on paper using printed charts. The point being, is I don't have a lot of the history anymore. It's easy to do on one issue roughly. I usually do 1 years worth at a time.
I will be posting some results as my web presentation expands.
Jibes
TrendSeekers at:
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Hi everybody
Just to let you know, I have moved my website to:
http://homepage.mac.com/bondiblueone/trendseeker/index.html
And now I am introducing Free Shares!
Yes! I have been very busy and all during the late summer and fall I have been thinking about the concept of Free Shares. It seemed to me that at least the concept was sound but how would it do against other methods. Very good is my conclusions! So good in fact I have converted my whole portfolio to Free Shares! A very simple yet effective method to play the market.
Though the web page showing the concept and mechanics of Free Shares is fairly short at this time I will be adding more info as the days and weeks go by.
All completely free of course.
I am very excited about this!
Jibes
I have moved my website to:
http://homepage.mac.com/bondiblueone/trendseeker/index.html
And now I am introducing Free Shares! Yes! I have been very busy and all during the late summer and fall I have been thinking about the concept of Free Shares. It seemed to me that at least the concept was sound but how would it do against other methods. Very good is my conclusions! So good in fact I have converted my whole portfolio to Free Shares!
A very simple yet effective method to play the market. Though the page showing the concept and mechanics of Free Shares is fairly short at this time I will be adding more info as the days and weeks go by.
All completely free.
I am very excited about this!
Jibes
Tom.
You wrote re rebalance:
"JIBES has spent much more time at this study than I. Maybe we can get him to give us some comment."
Sorry I missed the thread as I have been out camping (Motor Homing) all of Oct. I just got back today. I missed some good buys and sells too. Oh well things will balance out or rebalance in the end. #:)
Jibes
TrendSeekers at:
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Jack, Conrad and All.
I'm glad you brought this up. I have been running tests on the progressive factors of DDCA and have concluded that it is no good. The concept seemed to make sense and it did work on some stocks but overall it was a dud. I did run tests on several low priced stocks and came to the conclusion that the factors should be set to 0.93 Sell and 1.35 Buy. These seem to work quite well.
On a head to head weekly one year test with AIM on the same group of low priced stocks DDCA and AIM were quite similar. AIM did better but at a cost. Three of the stocks required additional Cash infusion of around $16,000 each on an initial portfolio of $10,000! I would be very wary of putting this much cash into these issues. DDCA of the same stocks did have some that got into the red cash wise but only to the tune of $2000 to $3000. This I could live with if I were doing several stocks. If I limited AIMs buying to neg $2500 DDCA did better.
AIM has better absolute rules than DDCA. The uncertainty about the Factor settings requires caution. I hope I didn't lead anyone astray.
Jibes
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