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Currently being able to upgrade at AT&T, I thought the new phones coming out would knock down the price of the iPhone 5 quite a bit (I have the iPhone 4 now) and it would be a cheap upgrade. Seeing that the iPhone 5 is now being sold for the same price as the plastic (otherwise pretty comparable to the iPhone 5) iPhone 5c at $99, it seems natural to me to pay $100 more and get the iPhone 5s.
So, although Apple's pricing of their new phones (WITHOUT a new contract) has received much criticism, it remains to be seen how the sales of the phones will be affected. I'm pretty sure I will buy one. Their stock price in the short term depends on how many iPhones they can sell the rest of this month. Only time will tell and millions of people are watching. If they don't feel the same way I do, the stock price is probably going to suffer even more.
The future of the stock price depends so much on how possible buyers react to the release of the new iPhones.....and we will find out over this coming weekend when advance orders are being accepted.
What do you call it when you can't see the forest because of all the trees? What do you call it when everything looks rosy, but the lenses on your glasses are rose tinted? Just kidding, but I have seen more realistic guesses only in my dreams. $480 by week's end? That would be nice, but I thought this was an intelligent group of investors that told it like it is, not like they wished it was. As always I wish you all the luck in the world, and I hope it does hit $480 this week, but I can not see how that could be, based on everything expected from this report. A surprise would be great, but it certainly is not expected.
Cautious buyers, please be patient. It's great to see everyone giving different insights, and right now everything is exciting, but is still a big ?. MY OPINION ONLY: I am also believing that Apple will surprise in the number of iPhones sold, but the number of 4's and 4s's sold will be larger than expected. No other surprises overall, probably a lackluster report. Follow the after hours price as the report is given. I am also guessing that the longer Tim Cook speaks, the more the AH price will go down. By the close of the market tomorrow, I feel the price will be below $417. I would normally be a buyer at $415, but the overall 9 day and 30 day RSI readings cause concern. Follow that up by looking at a chart of .DJI, .INX, and .IXIC over the past 2 1/2 months, and if you are like me, it looks like a overall market correction of 5-10% is coming within the next week. I have the money on the side, and I am anxious to jump back in, but it just doesn't seem like the time is right to me. Sometimes patience can be rewarded. Only time will tell.
ASim, I agree completely - It is always easier to increase the % of a lower number. Also, a large increase one time doesn't mean it is a winner (look at most penny stocks). However, what was shocking to me in the chart presented was that Apple was the ONLY individual company to go down in market share! And by a huge %! It went from 23.0% to 17.3%, and with a very good chance, it appears, that it could get much worse. I'm an Apple guy....or at least I was, and I want to be, but am getting very concerned about what is happening right in front of us on a daily basis concerning the lessening of Apple's importance on every front. Heck, I WANT a LARGER SCREEN. I am trying to be patient, but recently wanted to see what the hoopla was about copy-cat Samsung. I was actually amazed at what I saw. I didn't see copy-cat stuff. Take a look:
http://www.samsung.com/us/article/tips--tricks-galaxy-s-4
That is what I am worried about. Giving the people what they want on a timely basis and it is NOT happening. Please Apple, let's get it in gear so that it does not appear that you are only coasting!
Very good article chichi, thanks for posting it. I saw an article on how the little guys in the smart phone business, from India and China, are making large inroads in both of those countries, growing larger and faster than Apple or Samsung phones:
http://seekingalpha.com/article/1561312-how-apples-western-bastions-could-be-threatened-by-little-known-competitors?source=email_rt_article_readmore
Wow, it's taking a dive. I didn't expect this until maybe after earnings. It could be a combination of many things: It's summer, volume has been very low, relatively low R&D budget, slow development of new products, no new products produced, many other corporate results have been on the negative side, terrible news about current results in Russia, India, Japan, and China, etc.? I know AAPL can go to $550, but not without something substantial being presented to the buying public. I'll be a buyer again, at $415 or lower, because I think $400 will be close to it's absolute bottom (because of it's inherent value), but we won't know for sure until after earnings next week. Except for my Apple April, 2014 option at $440, I'm all cash right now and will have a relaxing weekend! Good luck to all!
I hope you are correct OAD. If you are, you will be happy, and I will be also. Sure, I missed some possible profit by selling, but I took NO CHANCE with my funds that are so dear to me. I don't mind missing a profit, I just truly dislike taking a loss.
Time to take a breather again? As an Apple lover I know what this company is capable of in the next year or so. As a swing trader I am aware that the operating results that will be announced next week will not compare with the results of a year ago. Yes, I know that a year ago Apple had their first $50 BILLION dollar quarter. They had introduced the iPhone 5 and the iPad Mini, refreshed the full size iPad, redesigned the iPod and iMac products, so it isn't fair to compare this year to last. However, that is what people that buy stock do, they compare performance. Is it improving or falling back? That's an easy question to answer this quarter. I'm going to take my $1000+ profit (I last sold at $432, then bought back at $417). I hope I can buy back at a lower price after earnings are reported. OUT at $428.60
TP, we all know that sooner or later Apple with come out with new products. The article is a positive one, in that they called for a $600 stock price. I would be happy with that. Wouldn't you? They are just not sure "when" these new products will be released, and are saying that the increase in stock price will be dependent on these releases, and they are asking investors to be patient.
Good Luck FA! Having lost way more than my share of option money, mainly because I find it so hard to limit the total investment amount each time, I have become more conservative in my old age. I pay more per deal but with the current AAPL situation anyway, go way out until (at this go-round at least) April 2014 on expiration. So, instead of $119 for 100 option shares, I will have to pay over $3,000 for the same # of option shares (at the same $440 price), but have the luxury of time on my side. I have also lost by not selling soon enough. I have been greedy at times, but now sell if the investment doubles. I wish you luck with your purchase and will watch it with you.
From what I have seen, this sums it all up pretty well (by MoneyShow.com):
"Apple is going to have to come up with a new popular device that shows it can still innovate, whether that is a true iTV, wearable tech like an iWatch, or something else in order for the stock to gain momentum again.
Meanwhile, the company continues to generate tremendous cash flow and the stock is inexpensive.
It remains a formidable company that we believe still has some new products up its sleeve. It is likely to take a compelling new one to really get the stock moving again.
Somewhere around the $400 level appears to be the floor for the stock. We continue to rate Apple a “Strong Buy” for patient investors. Our target is $600."
Read more: http://www.minyanville.com/sectors/technology/articles/Apple253A-Beloved-to-Hated253F-AAPL-apple/7/15/2013/id/50820#ixzz2Z8MATGzC
What an excellent post, thank you LovePoker. One of several that makes me appreciative and thankful that I follow this forum. My only comment, AAPL's inactivity continues to hurt it's chances of the stock price recovering. Everyone else is innovating and coming out with improved products. How about Nokia's new photo super high image phone? Please AAPL, show me something! This after reading the iWatch is not going to see daylight until 2nd Qtr 2014. Option buyers have put their money down on the price on expiration this coming week (monthly expiration) down $5 from $440 to $435. Also, if I may, let Tim Cook run the company, get someone else to talk to the public about results. The more TC talks, the more the price falls.
Max Pain is still (See July 1 post) at $440 for July 20 at this point. Also, my post about there being no iPhones on display at Best Buy in Ft. Myers, FL was absolutely true (or I'm blind in one eye and can't see out of the other one).
Max Pain Link: http://www.maximum-pain.com/max-pain.aspx
Missing the boat? While in the local Best Buy store this past weekend, business was great. The smartphone area had people waiting for salespeople to write them up. There were separate displays for many providers, such as AT&T, T-Mobile, Verizon, Sprint, and others. I didn't see any iPhones anywhere. There was Samsung ALL OVER THE PLACE, Blackberry, Nokia, HTC, Motorola, Palm, LG, Google, and Sony among others. Since I got my iPhone through AT&T I went to their display. No iPhones. It isn't because Best Buy isn't authorized for Apple products, they had one display area for iPads and Tablets, and another one for iMacs, MacBook Pro, and MacBook Air computers. I just shook my head and wondered WHY AREN'T THEY SELLING iPhones????
Wow, what a finish! I'm going to go out and spend my $100 profit!
: ^ )
We should hit 4 million shares traded by the end of the first hour, so someone is buying! I'm finally back "even", what a relief. If it lasts all day, I'm celebrating!
I agree. MAX PAIN is up to $440 for Monthly Options closing on July 20:
http://www.maximum-pain.com/max-pain.aspx
Good luck to all!
Sasi, your previous post to this one (99362) called for AAPL going to 420 on Monday, June 24. It never got close, and closed at less than 406. No one's calls are always right, but you seem to claim yours are?
Even with today's slow start, with MAX PAIN at $400 I figured there would be some sort of rally before the close of the market today.
MAX PAIN: http://www.maximum-pain.com/maximum-pain-options.aspx
Just look at the AAPL stock price for the month of June....very depressing. I'm long AAPL right now, but am starting to wonder why?
After selling at $432.25, I'm back in, all the way, at $417! I guess you guys/girls have a new cheerleader for awhile! : ^ )
I had a standing BUY order at $419, but pre-market is already down to less than $419.50 so I just cancelled. Will let it shake out for an hour or so before deciding. So much depends on the overall Market, only time will tell.
Hey, Ford does have an advantage in P/E ratio, but that's about the limit to any advantage they might have. I really do give credit to Ford and it's newest products, but $ growth potential of it's stock price from the current levels......I'll stick with Apple. Mark it down, let's look at it in 3 months.
Thank you for sending the whole comparison. Besides P/E ratio, here are some other figures from the info you sent: Profit Margin, Ford 4.27%, Apple 23.46%; Return on Assets, Ford 2.21%, Apple 18.91%; Revenue per share, Ford $35.79, Apple $180.22; Gross Profit Ford $21.67B, Apple $66.66B. THERE IS NO COMPARISON
Let me see - Comparing Apple to Ford, what are their gross earnings, their net earnings, and their P/E ratio compared, one against the other? I don't think there will be any comparison? It's always easier to increase by more if you start off with less. You brought it up, please support your statement.
Not quite at that stability stage yet, the market could still see a little bit of a correction any time now.
Wow, TJAI your comments did not surprise me, but I do have to show a different opinion. I know all those things have been battered around for so long they are like old news and that makes them easy to discount. However, I believe most of those things you mentioned WILL be implemented during the next 12 months and will do wonders for the reemergence of the increasing value of AAPL stock. Let me just take one - A lower priced phone (Not a CHEAP $100 Phone), priced around $300+/- in addition to the unleashing of China Mobile and continued payment plans in India will have people saying they should have bought or kept with their AAPL stock when it was in this lower range. I'm in cash right now, but it is only a matter of time until things settle down a little and I will be back in.
Yes, it very well could be a short-term thing, I'm just a little gun shy. It's summer and I hope I will have another chance to get back in before some great announcement is made about new products. I just need to see a little more stability and I'll be ready to go again, I'm sure.
The current market, national and world economies are just too much of a ? for me right now. The weekend is coming,and I'm going out of town for 3 days next week. I'll take a $300 loss right now and be able to sleep for the next week! I'm out at $432.25. GLTA
I would not take a chance on a Put. It is summer and sideways movement is to be expected. Volume was way down today. Who knows, tomorrow it could go up $10. Long term up movement is not expected unless they come out with some NEW hardware. Right now $435 to $455 seems to be the channel. If it hits $450 I'll take the gain and wait until it goes down again or something exciting happens.
As AAPL investors, we need MORE before our investments will pay off.
See this: http://www.valuewalk.com/2013/06/apple-inc-aapl-needs-to-do-more-wall-street-analysts/
Those of us that are long, know and believe in the past achievements and future possibilities of AAPL. The problem is, although they might be working on a supercharger or an engine rebuild (forgive the analogy) to make their "car" faster, right now they are trying to drive their car while it is not in gear.
I'm in at $435 and don't think (At least I HOPE it doesn't) it will go a lot lower unless the market tanks, but I am going to sell if at $450 (if it goes that high) and put my investment elsewhere until they decide to put the transmission in a gear, even if they only start off in 1st.
AAPL can march off on it's own, but the many other signals are against it today. Lackluster volume, Max Pain was at $440 this morning, VIX still up (signals down pricing) but trending up, DOW, S&P, and NASDAQ all down (but trending up). If I had to guess I would say that AAPL would close up & positive today, but a blast off needs more volume and external developments.
You are absolutely correct. It was so fulfilling and dynamic when Steve Jobs said, "Wait, there is one other more thing" and then blew us away with a new product. I yearn for an impact from an AAPL presenter to have that affect on so many people.
After looking it up, the upturn was immediate, starting the next day! And it continued. All the way from a LOW closing price of $392.50 on 4/24/13 to a closing price of $460.71 on 5/6/13. I would ABSOLUTELY LOVE for that scenario to happen again.
Without looking it up, I seem to remember a gradual return to 1 day before presentation prices in 4-5 trading days.
There was an almost IDENTICAL outcome today, as from the last time Tim Cook spoke on April 24th! The longer he spoke, the more the price went down. Just look at the daily chart from today and compare it to April 24th.
Yes, the Max Pain guess did come close on that one: Open at $432, Max Pain that morning was $445, and my guess w/in $2 was $443 and it closed at $441.81. I can't even make another guess on AAPL until everything shakes out this week. Ask me Friday morning. I think it would be a blast to get a bunch of us guessing at the close on Friday, a real chance at getting different ideas and seeing what works best.
You never know with Max Pain, and as in their link, they admit that developments in the real world out there can influence the price of the stock more than what people have figured on in advance commitments. I like to watch the CHANGE of the Max Pain figure, from morning to morning, because that shows me what the majority of options buyers have been doing in the last 24 hours.
Same Old, same old. I held, hoping for the best. I've seen this before....a drop, and then a slow recovery as people digest the actual improvements that have been made. Maybe by Friday we'll be back up to $445-$450, but who really knows? Max Pain is down to $440 for this Friday as of this morning.