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The 2008 TV ad contracts will be cut with advertisers in early January if my memory serves me correct. They sell about 80-90 % of the space during that time. We should get some guidance on those deals via a PR in January. If we don't get guidance and have to wait until April for any news, I agree the PPS will suffer greatly. We'll see.
It looks like Media called the bottom at ten cents; there was only a measley 3522 shares that sold under ten cents today at .0951. The rest of the shares were bought or sold at or above ten cents.
Maybe tomorrow we'll see more buyer conviction now that the sell off is over... or maybe we see an EOD rally?!
I'm glad to see there is no more suckers giving away the stock at these prices!
Happy Thanksgiving everyone. Low volume is expected with the short Holiday Week, but I'm glad there is only buyers left for AAGH! It's nice to see green again. Maybe we'll be back to where we belong (Fair Value PPS of .18-.20) by the time everyone returns next week.
Congrats Media. I've learned alot from you in the past few months and I'm glad to see you do well.
Thanks for the feedback Redjimoo.
Just logging on... Wow that was quite the rollercoaster. I'm sorry I missed all the cheap shares.
By that logic if we are 100% higher than last year then we should be at .20 then because we have twice the base revenue as last year.
And that's not counting any revenue for the WWTBAM show which will likely surpass the existing base revenue of the company. And let me remind everyone that WWTBAM is not a speculative revenue. The show is currently broadcasting and this new revenue stream is being collected as we speak. Do you think this company is going to spend millions on this TV show (a proven international hit show) and neglect their already successful media business (which grew 90% this year on its own by the way) to invest in a new revenue source that is not going to generate as much revenue as their existing business?
And if you want to argue that the WWTBAM show was a bad bet for the company in that the current revenue numbers are disappointing and that's why they aren't providing guidance on them until the end of the 4th quarter, then why would they announce in Wednesday's Q that they were shifting their entire business model in that direction? They clearly stated in Wednesday's Q that "management believes this segment holds tremendous opportunity for growth. As such we are currently reviewing additional opportunities in TV entertainment and Interactive Programming."
How anyone can think this stock is fairly valued at these prices with what we know at this point is beyond me.
I'm still waiting for a bear to explain why they sold this stock in the past week. I guess my theory that they had no good reason other than panic is proving correct.
I'm still waiting for my rally (i.e., when a rational analysis of the fundamentals of this stock return).
Historically, AAGH hasn't seen this many negative days in a row as far back as I can see. So you're probably right phg, but I would never try to underestimate those who are willing to throw pearls before swine.
Since this stock is tanking so bad, here's a question for the bears:
Why are you selling? Is there some compelling fact that the rest of us are missing or are you just following the other lemmings off the cliff?
Please enlighten me. I await your response.
I'm still waiting for my rally...
I predict a rally tomorrow. Just look how oversold we are on the RSI.
Well, I'm not falling for it. Whether this is market manipulation, an S-8 dump, or ill-informed investors, I don't know, but I've read the 10Q completely and can't find any reason to justify the drop to these levels. The company is what it is and the revenue in the short-term is there. I'm confident we'll move back up shortly.
And as far as future growth (i.e., new TV shows), the company disclosed this little nugget in the Q:
"Management sees the Company’s entry into TV entertainment as a synergistic expansion leveraging our expertise in China advertising sales. As mentioned, management believes this segment holds tremendous opportunity for growth. As such we are currently reviewing additional opportunities in TV entertainment and Interactive Programming."
Good points Hedgy. However, AAGH management doesn't behave like other OTCs. They don't seem to care about the share price and they always play it close to the vest when it comes to releasing information. It is truly maddening, but that's how they are. Ask Lucky or one of the other AAGH veterans, they'll support me on that point. On a positive note, there is a good aspect to that trait, in that at least they don't puff the stock or over-inflate their performance.
Sentiment is down, but I've seen some really strange trading of this stock in the past week. I smell a shakeout with good news in the wings so I'm not exiting at this point. I'm going to wait for the Q before I consider selling any shares. I've seen solid and predictable growth from this stock this year and alot of the downside risk is gone. I won't be surprised to see us have another profitable quarter especially in light of that doubling in revenue for their media business (excluding the WWTBAM show).
My prediction is that we get an extension for the Q filed and the late filing appears next Monday. That's my guess based on past behavior. GLTA
Lucky, I did notice that OT's move, however I don't have any shares in it right now.
I'm less interested in the initial WWTBAM ad/text messaging revenue and more interested in the show's ratings/popularity (i.e., viewership numbers) as that will be a better indicator of the potential revenue for the show going forward into the 4th quarter and into 2008.
Hopefully, since WWTBAM and its revenue is a "material event," we should get some additional guidance on these issues (including revenue to date) in the Quarterly. That will determine the direction of the share price since most investors are betting on the future growth of the company anyway. If they are not profitable this quarter, who cares, especially if they have a lock on sizeable profits from the show for the 4th quarter. Factor that in with their steady growth in the media sector and this stock is a winner.
IMO, expenses shouldn't be too excessive this quarter unless they have another project coming online. And in that case, that's just more revenue going forward.
That's my two-bit opinion on the subject.
Good point Lucky. You're right about the MOMO players. And of course, G**M was a much bigger capitalized stock than AAGH.
Lucky,
Well, I'm actually encouraged by the MM manipulation, if that's what it is. In my view, they would not try to artificially push this thing down if they didn't think there was some news in the short-term that will push it back up. I'm also not worried about the drop in price because volume is so low. If a drop in price was coupled with high volume, then I'd be worried. As you know Lucky, we're sitting on a good one here. I can't wait to see the Q!
And for all you Veterans on the board... Thank you for your service!
In my opinion, the MMs are trying to push the price down. I did a test purchase of 1700 shares at the ask of .17. They didn't allow the .17 price to print. They immediately sold at the bid of .165 after my purchase.
Welcome back sparks!
Then you might as well sell now jacobboaz because I can't think of a Q that AAGH did not use the five day delay period for filing.
KyInvestor, it looks like your estimate of 23 is closer to the industry average.
Yahoo Finance lists an average P/E of 26.2 for the Advertising Industry:
http://biz.yahoo.com/ic/720.html
Since it's a slow day and the earnings report will post in three weeks or so, I wanted to post a question and find out the consensus of the board:
What is a conservative estimate as to the proper P/E multiple for AAGH?
I'd vote for 10 times earnings...
Thoughts anyone?
Does anyone know what is common for the advertising industry?
Unfortunately, I think selling will commence at the open. Mak's not going to provide any guidance this late in the week.
Well, the first WWTBAM show falls within Q3 so we will know revenue for that show. Also, they will have to provide guidance on the progress of the show in the weeks up until the Q3 is released as well. I think there will be plenty of information in the Q3 to determine the success and ad revenue projections for the WWTBAM show.
Pepto,
I don't see why they won't post the Q late again; it seems like they always do. With that said, the latest date for the filing by my estimation will be Monday, November 19, 2007. Absent the five day extension, it should be filed by Wednesday, November 14, 2007.
Suffice it to say IMHO, the week of November 19th through the 23rd should have some wild trading in a northerly direction once we have the numbers for this thing!! GLTA
two-bit
Well, we always lose interest during the east coast lunch hour. Volume and price won't pick up again until the last trading hour; it's like clockwork.
Lucky's right... Mak's unpredictable with PRs. However, a lack of them is not an indicator of problems. Mak just plays it close to the vest and doesn't release much information.
But, if I was to play the devil's advocate and speculate here, we have received PRs on Mondays for the past two weeks and... three of the last four PRs have been released on Mondays. Most AAGH PRs get released between Monday-Wednesday. Tuesday is the second most prevalent day for PRs. So, I think we will get a bump EOD for those gambling on a PR early next week.
The underlying point is that this stock is fundamentally sound at these low prices and those that wait for the hard numbers in the Q3 will be richly rewarded if there is no guidance before the Q.
I might also remind you all that a Wednesday buyer spent over $1 million dollars to buy 6 million shares of this thing in three blocks of 2 million all within about 10 minutes! I'll let you all read between the lines on that one!!!
I did see that...
Well, it was a trade at the bid, but you get my point!
Han,
Well we just had a trade of 170,000 shares at .29. I guess that shows someone has some conviction... LOL
Wow Bid/Ask at .27/.29 That's quite the standoff between the haves/have nots!
Interesting... we are right back at the 20 MA.
We closed at .27.
Sooo...GAP UP tomorrow!!??
Wouldn't it be nice to be Mr. BIG BUCKS who bought six million shares of this stock yesterday. Nice 20% return in a day!!
HEY LUCKY! LOOKS LIKE WE STILL HAVE THIS CHINESE TIGER BY THE TAIL!! GO AAGH!
FYI, AAGH is going through the roof right now. It went from .21 to .27 within 5 minutes!!
What's going on!!?? Is NEWS coming!!??
Whoa!! We jumped from .22 to .25!!!!