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is benny boy watching USO coil in action...we are back to neg rate + commo boom days of 2007 that didnot end well..USO can explode to the upside here ..little shock & awe needed for chumps..
SPX@1050..i added to my shorts from ~1000 level. Even granting bullish case, this is a good place for at least some retracement. Another thing i am watching is breakoout extension that is getting shorter each time..breakout from 950 had a nice extension...then from 1014--and then from 1036. So the "melt up" is losing steam..all patriotic/emotional reasons like 9/11, lehman anniversary are in the past. Lets have a nice 1- 1 1/2 mo of good sell off now..
something is amiss!! bond yield is back to stock market lows in early july while stocks are 15% above that level...it has the making of a stock market crash as bond market tend to lead...
950 SPX was a fair resistance..1000 as well..so 1050 will at least give some time for traders to hold breadth and see what happens...i agree, DO not apply TA willy nilly and right now trade w/ a long bias till it doesn't work..
Goldman had a 1045 target..may be they will relent..
Bear rally & gold: It is instructive to see the first leg of bear rally (that was quite exasperating for bears) in spring 2008 also saw gold reaching a peak of $1000+ and here we are again in perhaps the 2nd bear rally (4 th wave for elliot wavers).
Some peopel (CBs) never learn and repeat the same mistakes..
GOLD could be a play here..bulls may be putting money there as a bernanke snub
well..
10 MA has a squiggle even in begining of 2002 (and many thought at the time bear market was over)
well many downtrend lines will be broken on the upswing. The one lining up w/ 2007 top is still far away..
MACD crossover: again choose diff cycle/number and in an upswing many crossovers will be seens and many still away (just like DT lines)..
TA is more art..
China is the canary here. meseems today buying the dip may not work...
AIG: bushwhacked
According to my work, TOP is in. Shorts' multi month agony is OVER
heck at this speed market can be all time high by yr end..
what a move !!!!
this could simply be similar to apr 03..the cross happened few montha later (oct)..
i am amazed at the rally and my swing short position is bleeding..daytrading been much better.
SO 320 MA has been crossed convincingly. Are bears prepared to flip and become bulls??
not to quibble, but prices will face higher SMA on the way up..50,100,200,300,400 and so on..So this can be done ad infinitum to justify bear position and a losing one..i have a short position from 950 SPX tho
what a move--AIG
SPY if closes below 99.5 or so.. it would be a win for bears.. I am hoping for it
if yesterday it was financials, today the FED took up OIL as an excuse and voila ..market zoomed. It gave another opportunity to load shorts near 1000 SPX...
USO seems to have completed its intraday breakout and 38.5 may be big resistance.. Also a coil is in formation to keep trades guessing..
HGSI perhaps
w/ all the bears from just a week before suddenly en masse turning bulls and see multi yr bull market...heck even a powerful wave 3 post 40% rise from bottom, you gotta take the other side...
the rally is a sham. It is written all over. Time to short big here
habit..i guess
shorted SSO @ 25.75...nice R/R here..
stochs overbought..Upper Trendline resistance and 50 SMA res.
even Goldman would be tempted..
i am seeing that as well...but i am flat now letting the market decide what it wants to do
what's that live insect in the lower pane!!!
bliss, that is BOLD
partly covered my shorts here at SPX 886. A ST buying opportunity could be around..ST that is
no biggie ted.. (as long as it is going kaching :)))
hey bill, this way you could justify bear position ad infinitum :)
triangle consolidation may breakdown to another 1% decline in S&P ( 5min )
shivering longs wonder if that is that dreaded H&S
i am lucky that i am getting an opportunity to short at this level. In few months, it will be quite obvious.
new money!! lol
keep the faith in such torturous times..
lot of faith in that TLine
bull-bear debate is akin to inflation-deflation debate at this pt w/ fed as big intruder. This is distorting the market.
that would apply if traders are not panicking due to tillion plus excess base money provided by benny boy. Without that crutch, this sucker would have rolled over long time back.
This situation makes it tougher, but i take benny boy at his word that he will remove the reserve in time. But i am not so sure. so are many traders
vix/vxv is signalling market would fall. Vol today was good however off the 50 SMA. SPX has to go above 930 to make me cover and go long
bliss, this is how i am looking at it..Stop above spx 930s. Beware of traps tho.
no way jose. Market is showing all signs of topping here
why UNG such a laggard?
yup those who were trigger happy and have been short for some time..
But time like these, honorable men show their cohones..And come out ahead by striking a different path